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Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance

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Sentient Science provides Prognostics Health Management using the Industrial Internet and will show practical examples of driving down O&M costs by moving from Planned Preventative Maintenance (PPM) to Predictive Health Maintenance (PHM) for distributed assets. This presentation will outline how the IIC, and the practical benefits of integrating your distributed assets with prognostics, predictive models for life extension.

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Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance

  1. 1. Using the Industrial Internet to Move from Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance
  2. 2. Todays Presenters Ed Wagner Vice President, Customers and Solutions Sentient Science ed@sentientscience.com Lynne Canavan Program Director, Industrial Internet Consortium canavan@iiconsortium.org Stephen Steen Head of Industrial Internet Services, Sentient Science ssteen@sentientscience.com Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  3. 3. Overview 1. Overview of the IIC and the business problem IIC solves 2. Sentient on the Industrial Internet – Prognostics and Making Lifing Assessment for Industrial Equipment 3. Renewables Business Case and Outcomes – Moving from PPM to PHM 4. Questions and Summary Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  4. 4. The Industrial Internet Industrial Internet: An internet of things, machines, computers and people… enabling intelligent industrial operations… using advanced data analytics for transformational business outcomes. Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  5. 5. The Industrial Internet is Leading the Next Economic Revolution GDP data extracted from the Futurist 2007 Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  6. 6. The Impact of the Industrial Internet General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025. Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  7. 7. Yet There are Current Roadblocks to Widespread Adoption The Industrial Internet: A $32 trillion opportunity Connectivity Technology Standards Research Academia Systems Integration Security Government Big Data Industries Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  8. 8. The IIC: Things are coming together Things are coming together. Technology Standards Research Academia Systems Integration Security Government Big DataConnectivity Industries Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  9. 9. Industrial Internet Consortium Mission To accelerate growth of the Industrial Internet by coordinating ecosystem initiatives to connect and integrate objects with people, processes and data using common architectures, interoperability and open standards that lead to transformational business outcomes. • Launched in March 2014 by five founding members: Community. Collaboration. Convergence. The IIC is an open, neutral “sandbox” where industry, academia and government meet to collaborate, innovate and enable. Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  10. 10. Our Objectives • Drive innovation through the creation of new industry use cases and testbeds for real-world applications; • Enable interoperability by defining and developing the necessary reference architecture and frameworks • Influence the global development standards process for internet and industrial systems; • Build confidence around new and innovative approaches to security. • Facilitate open forums to share and exchange real-world ideas, practices, lessons, and insights; Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  11. 11. IIC Members 11 IIC Founder Companies www.iiconsortium.org Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  12. 12. Model-based, multi-physics based prognostics computational technologies and services Our applications help extend the remaining useful life (RUL) of new and existing mechanical systems The newest prognostics health management (PHM) application for condition-based maintenance (CBM) Sentient Science is Based on Three Fundamental Capabilities Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  13. 13. DigitalClone Prognostic Validations Rotorcraft • NASA Spur Gear Validation • “Large Bearing Company” Bearing Validation • Apache Spiral Bevel Gear Validation • Actuator Pump Cam Bearing Validation • Rotorcraft Super Gear Validation • Blackhawk Spline Fretting Fatigue Validation • Navy Elastomeric Bearing Validation Wind Turbine • Clipper Wind Turbine GBX Validation • GE 1.5 Wind Turbine GBX Validation Automotive, Mining & Others • Planetary Gear System Validation • Differential Assembly – Spiral Bevel Validation • Axle Shaft Bearings Validation • Automotive Structural Materials Validation • Reduction/Axle Hypoid Gearing Validation • Mining Sag Mill Gear Validation • Hip Implant Wear Validation Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  14. 14. DigtialClone® Nucleation & Propagation <12 months1-3 years3-5 years+5 years Using the IndustrialInternet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  15. 15. Prognostics on the Industrial Internet Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Step 1: Predict the performance and health of your assets, components and systems from 0-6 years out. Step 2: Acquire operational data, per fielded asset using your data system and networks, to tailor service for each individual asset. Step 3: Confirm prognostic accuracy through advanced processing, alerts, and reporting tools. Step 4: Control or optimize assets life through, trade-off studies, automation, optimization.
  16. 16. Serial Number Model Part Number Fleet Model Sentient - 3rd Generation Life Model 2nd Generation Life Model Process NO CAPEX $31,000 8 weeks $3.5M CAPEX $323,000 1 year System Model with 3-5 Top Failure Component Models Zero $100 in compute time How to build Life model Cost & Time Value Prop comparison $20,500 Interpreting results difficult
  17. 17. What’s the Business Problem to Solve • Owner/Operators of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with off warrantee assets – “How long will it really take me to get usable information regarding my fleet and individual assets?” – How long will these assets produce value? – Will my O&M costs outweigh my financial pro forma? – How can I improve budgeting over 2-5 years? Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  18. 18. What’s the Business Problem to Solve? • OEMs of industrial Equipment trying to assess financial risk and liabilities associated with their warrantees – How soon can I find out what my real risk is for assets under warrantee? – What’s the right balance between reconfigure vs. replacement? – What’s my downside of not providing competitive warrantee services? – How do I budget to service customers today and into the future? Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  19. 19. Tim e Conditio n Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics ® Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  20. 20. Manage the Fleet Through Financial Optimization Year: 2014 Today Year: 2011 3.7% As-Is Failure Profile Optimized Condition Reduction in % of Failures Sentient’s services predict the true baseline and impact of maintenance and operational changes. Life extension or increased AEP by quantifying the impact of: - Wind conditions - Lubrication change - Turbine re-rating - Uptower replacements - Remanufacturing - Automated spare parts management Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  21. 21. “As Is” Quantify Impact of: Lubrication change, up-tower component replacement, partial de-rating, etc. “To Be” Years Until Gearbox FailureYears Until Gearbox Failure PercentageofFleetFailure PercentageofFleetFailure Linking Fleet Level Performance to Component Level Performance Prognostics allows you to quantify “what-if” scenarios to extend RUL Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  22. 22. Business Impact of Prognostics • Prognostics cut cost of the Big Data need to maintain assets – Prognostics vs. Diagnostics • Dramatically Reduces Time to Value for Asset Health Information – Lifing predictions within 3 months – Impact on new customer acquisition for OEM • Battle for the Aftermarket – will the Operator or the OEM dominate the aftermarket – Reconfiguration (Owners) vs. Redesign (OEMs) – “What-if” simulations creating significantly more competition March 16, 2015 The Financial Impact of Extending Asset Life
  23. 23. Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Sentient Science and the Industrial Internet Wave General Electric estimates that the Industrial Internet could add $10 - $15 trillion to the global GDP over the next 20 years. McKinsey Global Institute estimates an annual economic impact of $2.7 trillion to $6.2 trillion by 2025.
  24. 24. Industrial Internet Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  25. 25. Challenge for Wind Owner/Operators Failures higher than originally planned during site development. Assumptions used: – 100 WTG’s – Loan – 18 yr tenor  Approximately 50% of the total cash to equity comes in the last 5 years 10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50% 12.00% 12.50% 13.00% 13.50% 14.00% 14.50% 15.00% 0.5 1 1.5 2 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 20YearIRR% CashFlowtoEquity,Yrs15-20($,000) GBX Failure / WTG Cash Flow to Equity Years 15-20 20 year IRR Budgeted Actual *Owners are looking to gain control of cost Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  26. 26. Original Pro Forma O&M Plan Planned Preventative Maintenance (PPM) Pre-planned based on usage or time. Pro: Almost always ensures proper operation Con: Expensive and doesn’t address outlier Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Cannot predict future risk or solutions to reduce it
  27. 27. Improved O&M - First Attempt Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) Based on known need for maintenance. Pro: Reduced cost & improved reliability Con: High upfront cost, monitoring cost & produces false positives Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Can only predict short term failure, cannot provide solutions to reduce risk
  28. 28. O&M Solution – Path Back to Pro Forma Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Predicts future failure to plan and mitigate risk. Benefits: 1. Little to No Monitoring 2. Less Sensors 3. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Extension 4. Risk Mitigation Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Can predict risk years into the future and provide ways to reduce risk through life extension
  29. 29. DigitalClone Live Asset Ranking Default Most-at-Risk, Sortable, Filterable … Asset Map View Risk Level, Interactive, Navigable Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  30. 30. Component Risk Failure risk ranking down to the component level for O&M planning (e.g. uptower vs crane) DigitalClone Live – Component Level Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  31. 31. Todays Prognostic Reports 1. “As Is” failure rates at the fleet, site, critical component levels – Watch lists, borescopeing, inventory and supply chain management – Budgeting 2. Gearbox replacement schedules for forecasting 3. “To-Be options to extend life: – Component replacement – Lubrication and additive impact on life – Duty cycle changes to improve life – “What-if” simulations before taking action You Can “See” What Diagnostics Can Not Yet See Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  32. 32. Asset Prognostics over the Industrial Internet Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015 Predict initial WTG risk for each individual asset Acquire operational data (SCADA, vibration, etc.) from individual WTG Confirm the WTG prediction to the data to ensure it is operating as predicted Control and optimize the WTG through re-rating, up-tower component replacement
  33. 33. Example Prognostics: ROI Optimization ROI Optimization All trade-offs based on ROI at the individual asset level/group, maximizing ROI for the fleet. Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  34. 34. 1.5mw WTG – 500 Units $2,000,000.00 $7,000,000.00 $12,000,000.00 $17,000,000.00 $22,000,000.00 $27,000,000.00 $32,000,000.00 $37,000,000.00 $42,000,000.00 $47,000,000.00 $52,000,000.00 $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AS-IS MW/Hr Cost TO-BE MW/Hr Cost AS-IS Yearly Cost TO-BE Yearly Cost MW/Hr Cost • Through life extension, failures rates can be managed and reduced • Sentient can provide a significant improvement each year to the failure rates 5 years, $19M savings, 500% ROI Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  35. 35. Business Impact 1. Customer 1: Failure rate reduced by +50% – Customer budgeted and planned or 20+ gearboxes for 2014 – Through up-tower replacements, derating, etc. actual failures rates reduced to <10 – $5,000,000 cost reduction in budgeting 2. Customer 2: No failures, correctly predicted next gearbox failure – Was able to plan and prepare for gearbox failure in 2014 – 2-5 year PHM budgetary plan 3. Customer 3: Identified and confirmed 8 gearboxes on top 20 list not previously known or expected – 90% correlation with borescope conducted on top 20 gearboxes for exact component of failure – Crane and service optimization at $70K per crane service, reduced unplanned maintenance Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  36. 36. Applying Prognostics on the Industrial Internet Supply Side Optimization Using Prognostics Inventory and Supply Chain Optimization Fleet Process Optimization O&M Improvements SMART GRID 1 2 3 4 Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015
  37. 37. Summary • Sentient’s DigitalClone Live powers the move to Predictive Health Management (PHM) using the Industrial Internet – DoD, Industrial, Energy Use Cases – Demonstrations on request • IIC is the central organization for pooling technologies, security, architectures, test beds for learning and leveraging best practices – www.industrialinternetconsortium.org – March 24-26, 2015 - Reston, Virginia USA – July 15-17, 2015 – Niskayuna, New York USA – September 14-17, 2015 – Barcelona, Spain – December 7-14, 2015 - La Jolla, California, USA Using the Industrial Internet to Move From Planned Maintenance to Predictive Health Maintenance March 11, 2015

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