India political economy, political weight index, governmental weight index, budget, budget per capita http://iilss.net/ http://maynter.com

1. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Political weight index
1. India as second populous country in the world, has a very low
political weight index in comparison to other populous
countries. Their political weight index in 2018 equal to 28 and
they had just 11% growth in pw index in compare to 2000. The
low political weight index of India is the result of their very
high population amounts with very low governmental weight
index. This is signs of traditional society with less care about
the modern definition of society.
2. In here, we have not a moral perception about India situation,
but their trend shows us that they haven't ideal and even
normal situation in economic indicators (not growth rate).
Although we see the great progress on them, but they have
still too far from development and especially welfare. India
had notable fallen in PW index on some years, such as 2000-
2002, 2007, 2012-2014, 2015 and 2018.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Political weight index
1

2. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Political weight index
3. The India high population lead to high level importance of
human geography against their territorial geography. So, this is
lead to highlighting of Indians humanity issues in last decades.
India population in 2018 was 1,358,000,000, which it had
305,000,000 increase in 18 years. This amounts is very higher
than of many countries population. They have 28% growth in
population size, but they never been had like this rate in other
indexes, such as pw index. It seems that none of population
policy had effective results.
2
1,000,000,000
1,050,000,000
1,100,000,000
1,150,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,250,000,000
1,300,000,000
1,350,000,000
1,400,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
population
0
1
2
3
4
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
LPC or Land Per Capita (in m2)

3. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Political weight index
4. The share of governmental weight index in PW body was
almost more than of 65% in last two decade in India and it
reached to 73% in 2018. This share of GW in PW body proof,
despite to their low PW index, the most reason of their
existence is their government abilities. This is shown they have
very weak geopolitics, but this means isn't that they haven't
human resources. Whatever their human resources has a
critical problems in skills and educations. Also their human
resources need to draw materials and resources in one hand
and the market for selling those products.
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Share of GW (Governmental Weight) index in PW
body (in percent)

4. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Political weight index
5. The most reasons of low amount of political weight index and
low growth of PW index rate in India was:
A. Non contraction policy in population
B. Economic challenges such as low skilled workers, rural
economy, income inequalities, occupational shift, leaking
of infrastructure, inflation, banking crisis
C. High population with weak geopolitics and leak of
resources
D. Transparency in politics and economy, corruption, socio
political despondency
E. Poverty, unemployment, the growth of imports without
enough growth in exports
F. Confrontation with China and Pakistan in political and
border issues. Also with Nepal and Bangladesh
G. China control policy for restrain of India (like China-
Pakistan economic corridor and political pressure)
6. At now Indian are too far from development and despite that
they have high growth rates in economic issues, but it's not
comparable with China and many of other states. As a
fundamental policy, they need to population contraction and
shifting to industrialization. Their human resources amounts is
good, but if they have not enough skill, this lead to social and
political tragedies. They need to more times of growth and
absolutely this rate do not lead to development. By arranging
their problems, we anticipate that they achieve to ideal
growth. Some countries like India for development need to
higher rates in growth, because they had many historical lags.
4

5. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA governmental weight index
1. As we said in political weight index analysis about India,
the low size of governmental weight index in India is one
of the main reason on their low political weight index
amount. India governmental weight index in 2018 was
equal to 12, which it had 50% grown in comparison to
their index in 2000. Unlike to India political weight index
fluctuate, their GW index swing summarized to 3 years,
such as 2007, 2012 and 2015. Because the population
growth effect in PW index are directly and its effect on GW
aren't directly. It seems that in next years they will have
low growth or maybe stability on GW index.
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
GW index or Governmental Weight index

6. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA governmental weight index
2. The main reason for GW slow progress in next years will
raise of rupee worth Fallen against dollar and so increasing
flow of population in India. By look at to Indian trend on
government efficiency, this is obvious that they had grown
nearly to 2 times on government efficiency in last 20 years.
This means is that the rule of geopolitical realities had
decrease flow in compare to their government abilities.
We can't imagine that the management of India territory
with more than of 1,300,000,000 people how much is hard
and despite to this fact, Indian had growth in economic
sectors. Here our key statement is that, Indian doesn't had
enough growth, not they hadn't any growth in last years.
Their trend in GW variables shows specific matters, which
we describe about them in following.
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Government efficiency against geopolitical
realities

7. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA governmental weight index
3. Indian trend in GW variables shows specific matters, which
we describe about them in following.
7
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Share of each components in GW index body
B share CP share Δt share
4. The most parts of governmental weight index structure in India
divided in 2 uneconomical variables, which those consist of Δt (or
governance stability index) and CP (concentration of power). CP
as represent of Indian government authority, shaped more than
of 64%of Indian GW index body in 2018. This is sign a kind of
policy with less amounts of economic factors. In fact India society
managed via force a d authority. Also they have a traditional
society with lot of ethnic groups and lot of problems in modern
schools view, but this situation has some kind of reasons that
modernism cannot understand it carefully. Whatever, for
industrialization process and coming to modern or even
postmodern world and competition with world economic
powers, they cannot continue present standards. For this reason
in last years the huge economic programs lead to decline flow of
CP in India to favor of B index (as represent of economic tools in
policy), which in 18 years their CP declined from 74% of GW body
to 63% of it.

8. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA governmental weight index
5. The second variable that filled Indian GW index structure is
their Δt or governance stability index. Their Δt index with 68
years old of governance in last years was almost around 40%
of GW body. The present amount of Δt in India can make easy
society management for government and shown us their
population could define stable relation with present political
system. The modernization and industrialization will can
change their people thoughts about social and political issues
and on that day, Indian government must make economic
response for people needs. This is notable that Δt share in last
years had declined flow.
6. In 2018, the share of B index as an economic tools for society
management was -2%. Yes you don't see wrong number. It's
-2% and this is for that reason Indian economic tools for
society management wasn't even equal to 1% of base number,
then this is lead to negative share of B index in GW index body.
But when we saw their trend, this is obvious that they had
growth flow. Because the B index (budget size index) share in
2000 was equal to -17% of GW body and after 18 years it was
grown more than of 8 times and reached to -2% of GW body.
At now they have long distance in economic sectors with other
countries and for this reason they have many economic and
welfare problems, which we said about them on PW index
analysis. Whatever, the mean of development is not an
absolute mean and we must care about it. This situation lead
to that Indian government focusing national economic
resources to some place and so on the some parts of
population, which it is lead to huge gap among the peoples.
8

9. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Budgetanalysis
1. Indian national budget in rupee in last 2 decades had
incredible grown and it reached from 4000 billion rupee to
39000 billion rupee. They have 875% growth in their
national budget amounts and their growth had very fast
slope. But as we said, for recovery of their historical lag,
they must working on this field so harder. Also it's notable
that China in same time had 1100% growth in national
budget, by attention to this realities that China is a
productive country but India absolutely not like them. It
seems that without strengthening of national capacity for
industrial production, Indian national budget growth in
rupee will not help them.
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-
5,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000
15,000,000,000,000
20,000,000,000,000
25,000,000,000,000
30,000,000,000,000
35,000,000,000,000
40,000,000,000,000
45,000,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
National Budget in rupee

10. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Budgetanalysis
2. Trend of India national budget in dollar shows 544%
growth in 2 last decades. Their budget from 90 billion
dollar in 2000 reached to 580 billion dollar in 2018. This is
fantastic growth, but need to more growth in next years.
India for achieve to minimal standards of Asian BPC, at
least need to 3000 billion dollar in national budget, which
that is 6 times bigger than of current budget in dollar. It
seems that by current growth rates and India situation in
population, they will can achieve to this number in the
next 20 year. Although we cannot don't attention to this
realities that in the next 20 years, they will have many
complicate problems in development in compare to
present time. Also it's notable that they have notable
fluctuate in the period of 2007-2009, which that is
consequences of world economic crisis.
10
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100,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
600,000,000,000
700,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
National budget in dollar

11. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Budgetanalysis
3. Analysis of Indian BPC shows they had 434% growth on
that and it was smaller than of budget size growth. Then,
this is obvious that their budget growth absolutely wasn't
matched with their population growth. In 2018, Indian BPC
was equal to 422 dollar and it was 79 dollar in 2000. Also,
the distance between BPC and GDP per capita, which we
suppose that it was the sign of people efficiency in
economy and shows the growth of population skills to us,
had growth in India. It increased to 4.8 from 2.5 in 2
decades.
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
BPC or budget per capita GDP per capita
Trend of BPC and GDP per capita

12. MAYNTER
Maysam Araee Daronkola
.com
INDIA Budgetanalysis
4. The main reason in less effective of B index in GW body of
India, returns to small size of B index. As defined in
political weight index and governmental weight index
structures, B index shown us the distance between under
review countries BPC with best amount of BPC. At now
Indian B index is less than of 0.9. In fact their BPC never
reached to 1% of base amount of BPC (that belong to
Luxembourg BPC). Although their BPC in 2000 was 0.4,
which via many fluctuate had 131% growth in last 2
decades. This amount for China in same time was 815%.
The interesting fact in here is that in 20 years ago both of
them almostly stayed in same point of B index.
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
B or budget size index (of 100)