COMPLICATED PROBLEMS OF GOVERNANCE IN FRANCE (FRANCE GOVERNANCE STABILITY INDEX) http://iilss.net/ http://maynter.com TREND OF FRANCE BUDGET, BUDGET PER CAPITA AND BUDGET SIZE INDEX THE FRANCE SITUATION IS NOT BAD, THEY HAVE JUST A CHALLENGE PRISONER OF FREEDOM AND CULTURE (ANALYSIS OF FRANCE GOVERNMENTAL WEIGHT OR GW INDEX)

1. The France situation is not bad, they have just a challenge (analysis of France political weight index)
1. France political weight that configure of the geopolitical reality and government ability index ،has a
decline flow in last 20 years.(it is happened for main member of EU). The mains factor for this event is:
A.increasing of population and decreasing of LPC ( it's led to decline The Resource and shaping
problem in Estates sector and all relevant sector to it) B.decline of euro value against dollar and then
hard fluctuates in dollar budget of France. C.Unchanged in bpc (budget per capita) in France from
2008 (even the decline of it across this period, And decline of GDP per capita) D.After world economic
crisis in 2008, France couldn’t retrieve theirs economy. E.Decline in budget size index along all the past
20 years (they retrieve it in 2017 and 2018) but they has a long distance in all the time from welfare
state economy.
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2. France for resolving of current problems needs more cheap raw material and competitive industry. In a short time
and for emergency proceedings, they need control their population growth and even condense their population.
Also they must limit their international adventures.
3. From 2000 to 2005 France lose 4/7% of political weight. This flow controlling from 2007 to 2015 and after a
shocking fluctuate in 2016, retrieved in last 2 years. It seems that it's not based on fundamental proceedings,
because in 2018 this index declined again and at now, it's equal with their weight in 2015. Our prospect is that in the
next year, France PW also has decline flow or in optimistically situation, retrieve to 2017 amount.
390
400
410
420
430
440
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Trend of Political Weight or PW index

2. The France situation is not bad, they have just a challenge (analysis of France political weight index)
4. Almost in last 20 years the 60% (at least) of political weight (PW index) body of France, shaped of
governmental weight (GW index). In comparison with industrial country and most of European
countries, it's normal amount and so it has increased flow in last 20 years. But we must know the
economic factor doesn’t any effect to this trend and even lead to control of GW index increase flow.
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5. The latest events in France (Yellow vests movement) is fully detect with France fluctuate in political weight (PW
index) trend. when we have a hard fluctuate & sudden fall in pw index or governmental weight (GW) index in a year,
we must wait for see some reaction from population.
6. France next move for retrieve their political weight maybe consist of; A.use a more authority (because they think do
enough economic actions) B.They will do Superficial movement in economic sector, but their problem with China
and other emerging economic power's and new USA with Trump, cannot solving via this proceedings. Their problem
shaped in long-term, since they were present in EU. It seems that they lose their weight in EU for EU up keeping. C.
working on their infrastructure for come back to international trade procedure and sells more products and makes
more jobs. euro currency has a special requirements that most of them, out of France will and in any economical
action, hundreds of eyes from EU watching them. They cannot do anything.
7. The People of France needs more money and welfare. They comparison their self with other people of Europe (like
Norway, Luxembourg or Switzerland). It’s obvious that the government ability in France doesn't growth with their
geopolitical changing. But, nonetheless the France situation is not bad, they have just challenge.
40
50
60
70
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Trend of governmental weight share in political weight structure
GW
62%
LPC
38%
Share of GW in PW at 2018

3. prisoner of freedom and culture (analysis of France governmental weight or GW index)
1. The structure and the type of governance in any country is unique phenomena and has a special
nature. In each country the nature of government’s power is different with other country. By analysis
of governmental weight index (GW index) and political weight index (PW index) in any country we can
identify these differences between the countries.
2. Governmental weight index in France almost has increased flow in last 20 years. The reason of this
increasing flow, mostly is mental Factor (that shown by Δt) and use of authority (CP or concentration
of power). France governmental weight index equal to 42 of 100 and its share in political weight index
is 62% of weight in 2018.
3. France for controlling of political weight and governmental weight balance, must playing faster with
economical factor against population changes. Unlike the most of country, France population growth
hasn’t on time reaction to economic crisis.
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4. Free France, without god, must play with nature, people wills and international affairs that all of them is not stable.
So we can say France take many affect from external events that all of this events and situations lead to internal
reaction in France. whereas, the most ability of France coming from other place, then other place dictates their
intention and situation to the France.
39
39.5
40
40.5
41
41.5
42
42.5
43
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Trend OF Governmental Weight index (GW index)
GW
62%
LPC
38%
Share of GW in PW at 2018

4. prisoner of freedom and culture (analysis of France governmental weight or GW index)
5. Δt index or governance stability index in France has not a good condition, because it's 16 of 100. We can say France is
prisoner of freedom and culture. France history Full of social reform and Revolution and they have many changing in
their governance situation. The share of Δt index in France governmental weight index, in comparison with other
component, is not much. Δt share in GW index body equal to 25%, whereas this number in UK and USA near to 35% of
GW index.
6. The share of budget size index or B index, as the economy column of governmental weight body, equal to 35% of
governmental weight index, but in last 20 years it almost has decreasing flow. budget size index in France equal to 47 of
100(23000 dollar per capita), then we can say it's good number, but it has decline flow and in 2108 in comparison with
2000, its dropped by 11/32%.
7. CP (concentration of power) situation that sign of authority (as a hard) in France, in last 20 years always shaped 43% of
GW index weight. we can say almost the 43% of governance ability in France shaped of hard power that in comparison
with UK and Germany and most EU country it's a big number. Maybe the ethnic diversity and complicate social network
in France exigence this situation.
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8. By decline of budget size index in France, they need use of more force in the next year. So in the next year, the reliance to governments
and their legitimacy with use of more authority, make the structure of governance (as the main component of governmental weight
index) for control and govern of people. But we must explain again, the France governmental weight index is 42 of 100 and its share in
political weight of France political weight, almost equal to 60% of weight. Whereas, this is a good number and has increasing flow, then
we can predict a good future for France, but not early and with current policy.
18
23
28
33
38
43
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Share of B or budget size
Share of Δt or Governance stability
Share of CP or concentration of power

5. 606,000,000,000
806,000,000,000
1,006,000,000,000
1,206,000,000,000
1,406,000,000,000
1,606,000,000,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Trend of France budget, budget per capita and budget size index
1. The national budget (in euro)at France almost
has increasing flow in last 20 years. in fact
France national budget in 2108, in comparison
with 2000, has 40% growth.( from 744 billion
euro to 1,257 billion euro) by converting
France budget to dollar, we seen the budget
has a more than 100% growth in last 20
years(from 684 billion dollar to 1,483 billion
dollar), but from 2008 (world economic crisis)
not only their dollar budget has not growth,
even their budget in dollar has a huge
fluctuate. It’s obvious that Frances 2108
budget in dollar is equal with their budget in
2008.
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2. Therefore, the budget per capita (bpc) in France
like the national budget (in US dollar), has a big
fluctuate and by attention to the France
population growth, at now it is lower than of their
budget per capita in 2008. France bpc in 2018
equal to 22741 dollar and in 2008 it was 23521
dollar, but in comparison with 2000, it has 100%
growth. Then we can explain France bpc in last 10
years is stopped in a specific amount and even, in
some years it has collapsed. by survey in the
France GDP, we can say this is happening likewise
for GDP per capita amount.
National budget in euroNational budget in dollar
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Budget per capitaGDP per capita

6. Trend of France budget, budget per capita and budget size index
3. France B index or budget size index (that an index for comparison of under review state bpc with best
bpc at the welfare states) has almost decreasing flow in last 20 years. (But we can say it is still good
index). The France B or budget size index was 54 of 100 in 2001 and it's now equal to 42 of 100 in
2018. Then, France B index has a decline 23% in last 20 years. Every day of last 20 years, they are
getting away of welfare and just keeping minimum needs of industrialized country. France B index has
decreased flow and we anticipate this flow continuing in next years, because they budget growth
doesn't Coordination with population growth. this is while, France population economic efficiency and
GDP per capita has declined In previous years.
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30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
B or Budget size index

7. complicated problems of governance in France (France governance stability index)
1. Successive Protests and many Revolutions in France
lead to differential review in France constitutional
law. So, at the present time they are in the fifth
Republic at France. for this reason their governance
stability index is 16/21 of 100 (its low), which its
regent of present political system stability mark with
60 years old at France. Based on the theory of
political weight, every year that passed,
automatically amount of stability index has grown.
In this situation the B (budget size) index must
growth in one direction with Δt, but in France it’s
not happened.
2. After 1958 constitution law, due to being variety of
ethnic groups and a special type of social network in
France, still at now the France Society faced with
Rebellion of people for Social Justice, especially in
economic sectors.
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0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
3. In comparison with other neighbor countries, France use of more force and authority for Society management. The France
governmental weight is lower than of some country like UK, Germany and Italy and in political weight structure, their stability
index has lower share (its share in GW index body is 24%).(But this mean’s not they has a unfavorable situation in democracy)
4. The Share of Δt in France GW (governmental weight) body is 24%, and its sign of low confidence of people to the
government. So, although they expand much money resource for their people in the budget, but still there is public
discontent.(although, most discontents rising from injustice distribution of economic resource and welfare)
5. When an state Δt is low, it’s a sign of historical distrust of people to the governance system, in addition also it's a sign of
failure to reliance to legitimacy, performance and experience of political system. Maybe it's shown us the fifth Republic in
France, which it’s a product of post-world war 2 situation and requirement of post-war management, is not suitable for free
France in 2019. maybe they needs a constitution law review again which to consider their social & geopolitical realities.
Δt or governance stability indexB or budget size index