Tristan Bergh’s history of working with data is rather explosive, from the XDM Rooivalk, the world’s largest AFIS, to firearm management systems. Tristan is driven by actionable data, giving insight into Predictive Analytics in the local market. Slides from talks presented at Mammoth BI in Cape Town on 17 November 2014. Visit www.mammothbi.co.za for details on the event. Follow @MammothBI on twitter.

1. Tristan Bergh
Predictive Analytics in Action – Real Business Results in SA
EMERGENCE
Speaker 8 of 17
Followed by
Marc Smith
@ixioanalytics

2. Predictive Data Science
Powerful Results

3. How would we predict which coffee you would love?
beans? cappuccino? filter?
americano? cold milk? pull
time? pressure? sugar?
cinnamon? chocolate
sprinkles?

4. Your business
has more excitement and potential locked
up inside it
than a 10 year-old’s birthday morning
Everyone wants to maximise effectiveness,
performance & profits
We have process to do this…
Your business!

5. Question, Think, Test, Analyse
• Ask a question
• Build your hypothesis/choose one of the coloured pills (there
are more than two…)
• Set up your tests and run them
• Explore your results as you would a used car: thoroughly and
without emotion

6. Test It!!!
Cross validation: there is no
escaping it
If the model fits accurately,
your customers’ knowledge is
definitive
Inaccurate models show
themselves quickly - start again!

7. Predictive Analytics Workflow
Question?
Hypothesis
Data Sourcing
& Wrangling
Tweak, Test on
Unseen Data
Build
Predictive
Model
Real-world
Test
Test Group
Control Group
Result

8. Cool, Cutting-Edge Results
Tested models can be reliably deployed.
They’re better than guesswork, aren’t they?
What kind of results can I expect?

9. Tools of Our
Trade
R, Python, Apache stack,
Cloud, !
Open Source!
Statistics, Engineering,
Applied Maths,!
Systems Modelling!

10. observe
measure
experiment
test

11. Results

12. Call centre savings ZAR6m/month
Payment reminder response from 2% to
24%
Telesales up by 20%
ARPU up by 5%
Net new customer numbers 96% accurate
Insurance quote predictor: 92% accurate

13. D a t a
S c i e n c e
Gather tested insights
from all your data
Get definitive guidance
for your business