Prezentacija o pojedinim vrstama temeljne imovine, koje su podloga certifikatima kojima se trguje na Zagrebačkoj burzi. Prezentacija je održana 11. 6. 2014. na Zagrebačkoj burzi, a organizatori su bili Akademija Zagrebačke burze i Erste & Steiermärkische banka. Edukacija je organizirana kako bi se investitorima i financijskim posrednicima omogućilo čim uspješnije trgovanje certifikatima. The presentation on certain types of underlying assets related to the certificates traded on the Zagreb Stock Exchange. The presentation was held on June 11, 2014 on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, and the organizers were Academy ZSE and Erste Bank. Education was organized to enable investors and financial intermediaries more successful trading with certificates. Predavač/Lecturer: Stephan Lingnau – graduated with a Master in international Business Administration and Master in Economics from the University of Innsbruck, Austria. Studied abroad in Canada and Portugal. Since 2008 working as an equity analyst and strategist at Erste Group Research, Vienna. Focus on international discretionary and staples consumer sector companies, quantitative equity research and demographic effects on stock returns.

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Page
Global Market Trends
S&P 500 | DAX
Bund | Gold | Silver
Zagreb, June11th 2014
Stephan Lingnau | Equity Analyst | Erste Group Research
+43 50100 16574
stephan.lingnau@erstegroup.com
Data as of 09.06.2014
10. Juni 2014 1

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Economics
United States Outlook 2014
• Forecasting GDP growth of +2.5% in 2014 and +2.7% in 2015.
• Fed likely to continue gradual reduction of purchases by approx. USD 10bn per meeting
• The first rate hike is not to be expected before mid-2015.
• 10Y Treasury expected to increase to 3.0% by Dec. 2014. (current: 2.6%)

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Economics
Eurozone Outlook 2014
• Forecasting moderate GDP growth of +1.1% in 2014 and +1.5% in 2015.
• Gradual 10Y Bund increase to 1.8% by Dec. 14 (current: 1.4%)

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Economics
Global Growth Outlook 2014e & 2015e
GDP y/y
Source: IMF, Erste Group Research

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Global Trends
Economic Cycle Signals Buy Equities
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Global Economy Clock: IFO Index

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Global Trends
Economic Cycle | Developed Markets
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Economy Clock: IFO Index

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Global Trends
Economic Cycle | Emerging Markets
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Economy Clock: IFO Index

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Trends Global
Performances: Equities, Bonds, Gold

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VIX Index:
9
Global Trends
Volatility below long term average
Quelle: Datastream, Erste Group Research

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Global Trends
Emerging Markets Currencies have stabilised
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Emerging Markets Currencies vs USD

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Global Trends
JPY vs. SPX correlation picked up again in Q2
Source: Datastream
12 months: S&P 500 and JPY/USD:

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Trends Global
Deflationary Trend for Basic Resources ex. Softs
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Basic Resource Indices indexed in USD

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Source: Datastream Source: Datastream
US FED Total Assets vs. S&P 500 BOJ Total Assets vs. Nikkei 225
Global Trends
Central Bank Balance Sheet Expansion continues

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Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
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Global Trends
Negative Economic Surprises outweigh
Global Economic Surprise Index vs. MSCI World

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Global Trends
No euphoria for equities in the US (1)
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
AAII Sentiment Survey

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Global Trends
No euphoria for equities in the US (2)
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
AAII Asset Allocation Survey

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Trend United States
Expected Earnings growth in the US picking up
Source: Factset
S&P 500 EPS 2014e & 2015e

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Trend Europe
Eurozone Banks correlate with Periphery-Yields
EuroStoxx Banks vs. Spanish and Italian 10Y Bonds (inverse)

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Global Sectors
Overweight: Discretionary, Health Care, Industrials
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Relative Strenght of Sektor-Indices vs. MSCI World:

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Global Trends
2014e: EPS Growth in all Sectors positive
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Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
MSCI World AC expected EPS growth:
Sector MSCI AC World Weight % EPS y/y 14e Perf 3M
Materials 6 11% 2.8%
Industrials 11 11% 4.3%
Consumer Discr. 12 9% 1.0%
Consumer Staples 10 6% 7.4%
Technology 13 13% 4.5%
Telecom 4 -3% 6.4%
Health Care 11 9% 1.8%
Utilities 3 4% 8.0%
Energy 10 9% 10.2%
Financials 22 31% 5.5%

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Global Trends
2014e: EPS Growth in all Regions positive
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Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
MSCI Indices expected EPS growth 2014:

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EQUITIES
United States
22
S&P 500 at all-time high
Solid EPS growth of 8% and 11% (14e & 15e)
FED balance sheet expansion and weak USD support equities
Our technical volume indicators point to further increases
Share buy backs are an important factor for the performance

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S&P 500
A heavy weight in Tech and Financials
23
2%
3%
3%
10%
10%
10%
13%
13%
16%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Telecom
Utilities
Materials
Energy
Consumer Staples
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Health Care
Financials
Technology
Sectorweights S&P 500 Main Equities
Source: Bloomberg
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.8%
2.3%
2.4%
2.7%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Chevron
Wal-Mart
Wells Fargo
GE
Johnson & J.
Berkshire
Microsoft
Google
Exxon
Apple
Source: Bloomberg

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US | Fundamental Outlook
All Sectors with EPS growth higher 5% expected
Source: Datastream
Sector EPS growth MSCI USA FY1 & FY2

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Green: OBV 120 weeks.
Blue: OBV 40 weeks
Red: OBV 20 weeks (ls)
Actual situation: blue>red>green | positive and all indicators are above neutral zone of 50.
S&P 500
On-Balance volume of single stocks
Source: Erste Group Research

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S&P 500
Volatility of single stocks
Source: Erste Group Research

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S&P 500
Volume weighted average price (VWAP)
Source: Erste Group Research

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S&P 500
Erste Group Research Technical Buy & Sell indicators
Source: Erste Group Research

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EQUITIES
Western Europe
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Solid EPS growth of 8% and 13% (14e & 15e)
EPS momentum is showing a slowing trend (as in prev. years)
Strong performance of southern markets (Italy & Spain)
Falling EPS: Telecom and Utilities
Strong growth: Technology, Discretionary and Industrials
Technically the upward trend is intact

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Western Europe
Countries - MSCI Europe EPS growth 14e and 15e
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
EPS growth FY1 and FY2

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Western Europe
Sectors - MSCI Europe EPS growth 14e and 15e
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
EPS growth FY1 and FY2

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0%
4%
5%
5%
8%
12%
13%
14%
14%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Energy
Utilities
Consumer Staples
Telecom
Technology
Industrials
Materials
Health Care
Financials
Consumer Discretionary
DAX
Strong weighting in Discretionary
Index Sectorweights Weighting of Top Equities
Source: Bloomberg
3.5%
3.6%
4.3%
4.7%
7.0%
7.3%
7.7%
8.7%
9.7%
10.3%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Linde
Volkswagen
Deutsche Bank
Dt. Telecom
SAP
Allianz
Daimler
BASF
Siemens
Bayer
Source: dax-indices.com

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Green: OBV 120 weeks.
Blue: OBV 40 weeks
Red: OBV 20 weeks (ls)
Actual situation: blue>green>red | positive and all indicators are above neutral zone of 50.
DAX
On-Balance volume of single stocks
Source: Erste Group Research

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Demography US vs. Europe
US- Equities long-term more attractive than Europe

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Gold
43% Jewellery Demand, India & China main customers
Gold Demand in 2012:
Source: World Gold Council
Regional Demand for Gold in t:
Source: World Gold Council

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Gold
Strong Seasonality in Q3 & Q4
Gold Price Seasonality
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research

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Gold
Consolidiating Formation
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Gold Price in USD

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Silver
50% an Industrial Metal
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
Long Term Silver Price in USD/oz
Source: The Silver Insitiute, Erste Group Research
Long Term Silver Price in USD/oz Global Silver Demand 2012:

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Silver
The volatile Derivative of Gold
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
xxxxx
Q1
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research
ShortTerm Silver & Gold ChartLong Term Silver & Gold Chart

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Bund Future
We expect a downward trend
Bund Future vs Bund Yield 10Y Bund expected yield development
Source: Datastream, Erste Group Research

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Thank you for your attention.
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