St lucias energy transition

1. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Saint Lucia National Energy
Transition Strategy: Results
October 17th 2016
Caribbean Renewable Energy Forum
Miami
FURTHER, FASTER, TOGETHER
ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON

2. ROC
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Presenters
Roy
Torbert,
Principal
–
Planning
Rocky
Mountain
Ins9tute
–
Carbon
War
Room
FURTHER, FASTER, TOGETHER
ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
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Sylvester
Clauzel
Permanent
Secretary
–
Sustainable
Development
Victor
Emmanuel
Business
Development
Manager,
St.
Lucia
Electricity
Services
Limited
(LUCELEC)

3. ROC
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Agenda
• Context
• Process
• NETS
Results
o Energy
o Economic
• Lessons
Learned
• Q&A
3

4. ROC
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Context1
4

5. ROC
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Project Stakeholders and Supervisors
LUCELEC
is
a
ver9cally
integrated
public
u9lity
which
currently
has
the
sole
responsibility
for
the
genera9on,
transmission,
distribu9on
and
sale
of
electricity
in
Saint
Lucia.
In
2010,
the
Government
of
Saint
Lucia
approved
the
Na9onal
Energy
Policy,
emphasizing
RE
deployment
with
the
intent
to
lower
the
cost
and
price
vola9lity
of
electricity
and
to
reduce
dependence
on
imported
oil.
In
2012,
refined
goals
were
announced
which
proposed
a
renewable
energy
penetra9on
target
of
35%
by
2020
and
a
20%
reduc9on
in
energy
consump9on
for
the
public
sector.
In
January
of
2016,
the
Government
passed
a
law
crea9ng
a
new
independent
regulator,
the
Na9onal
U9li9es
Regulatory
Commission.

6. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Independent Technical Partners
Rocky
Mountain
Ins<tute-­‐Carbon
War
Room
&
Clinton
Climate
Ini<a<ve,
similar-­‐minded
nonprofits
joined
forces
in
2015
to
accelerate
the
transi9on
of
small
island
economies
toward
reliable,
cost-­‐effec9ve,
and
clean
energy
systems
and
to
create
a
blueprint
for
other
isolated
economies
FURTHER, FASTER, TOGETHER
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DNV
GL
is
the
largest
independent
technical
advisor
on
renewable
energy
with
more
than
1000
staff
in
renewable
energy
in
50
loca9ons,
across
27
countries

7. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
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Saint Lucia Energy Landscape
• 59
MW
peak
served
by
87
MW
diesel
genera9on
• Government
target
of
35%
renewable
energy
penetra9on
by
2020
• Planned/Announced
Projects:
– 3
MW
Solar
PV
– 12
MW
Wind
– 30
MW
Geothermal
– Government
Energy
Efficiency
Projects
• Changing
energy
landscape
driven
by
economics
and
RE
energy
targets
and
commitments
to
climate
change
mi9ga9on
• Requires
careful
technical
analysis
to
make
informed
policy
and
investment
decisions,
along
with
alignment
of
key
stakeholders

8. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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National Energy Transition Strategy
• Na<onal
Energy
Transi<on
Strategy
(NETS)
signed
jointly
by
Government
of
Saint
Lucia
and
LUCELEC
in
January
2016
• At
its
core,
the
NETS
is
an
Integrated
Resource
Plan
(IRP),
with
unique
factors
in
Saint
Lucia:
– Inclusive
process
involving
both
key
partners
at
each
stage
of
results
and
decision
making
– Independent
facilita9on
and
analysis
provided
in-­‐
kind
by
third-­‐par9es
– Public
input
gathered
through
a
stakeholder
consulta9on
session
• Both
par9es
will
jointly
submit
the
NETS/IRP
to
the
Na9onal
U9li9es
Regulatory
Commission
(NURC).

9. ROC
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Process
9
2

10. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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The NETS Core: An Integrated Resource Plan
The
Integrated
Resource
Plan
(IRP)
considers
forecasted
loads
over
a
20-­‐year
period
and
assesses
the
least-­‐cost
supply
and
demand
side
op9ons
to
reliably
meet
that
load.

11. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Questions the NETS Seeks to Answer
• How
will
all
our
planned
resource
investments
including
solar,
wind,
and
geothermal
interact
with
exis<ng
diesel
infrastructure?
• Will
large-­‐scale
renewable
energy
integra9on
affect
grid
reliability?
• How
do
different
energy
mix
scenarios
affect
u<lity
economics
and
rates?
• Is
there
an
op<mal
geothermal
generator
size
for
the
grid?
• Should
we
consider
other
resources
in
the
energy
transi9on
such
as
baSery
storage
or
energy
efficiency?
• What
are
the
costs
and
benefits
of
u<lity-­‐owned
assets
versus
distributed
genera<on,
both
for
renewables
and
conven9onal
genera9on?

12. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Balancing Needs of All Stakeholders
Goal
Objec<ve
• Overarching
priori9es
for
electrical
system
(e.g.
reliability,
cost
stability)
• Targets
set
by
both
par9es
to
achieve
the
overall
goal
Measurement
• Specific
metrics
(e.g.
‘Return
on
Equity’
or
‘SAIDI’),
measured
across
all
examined
scenarios
At
the
kickoff,
partners
agreed
to
a
broad
set
of
goals,
and
objec9ves
and
measurements
were
refined
throughout
the
process:

13. ROC
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Explored Resources
13

14. ROC
KY MOUN
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Saint Lucia: Developing Scenarios
Stakeholders
agreed
to
develop
scenarios
which
explore
the
following
variables:
• Carbon-­‐Intensity:
conven9onal
to
renewable
genera9on
• Ownership
Modality:
highly
centralized
to
highly
decentralized
system
Hybrid
U<lity-­‐Owned
Distributed
Centralized
Ownership
Decentralized
Ownership
Conven5onal
Renewable
Diesel
Fuel
Only
Natural
Gas
IPP
Geothermal
Solar
PV
Wind
Storage

15. ROC
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Results3
15

16. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Resource Assessments
Solar
Resource
Assessment:
• Applied
GIS-­‐Based
Methodological
Approach:
1
6

17. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Island-Wide Solar Resource Assessment
• RESULTS:
! GIS-­‐generated
.kmz
and
.shp
files
showing
poten9al
project
sites
for
each
technology
(ground-­‐mount,
roolop,
carport)
• Example
(carport):
1
7

18. ROC
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Explored Scenarios
18

19. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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2017 Dispatch Visualization Peak
at
2PM
Min
at
4AM
*SOC
means
‘state
of
charge’
for
the
ba?eries
Modeled
peak
day:
June
23rd
2017
Es9mated
Peak:
61.7
MW
Storage:
0
MWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
BaSery
State
of
Charge
(%)
Power
(MW)
Solar
/
High
DG,
Peak
Load
Diesel
U9lity
PV
Distributed
PV
Load

20. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
2019 Dispatch Visualization Peak
at
2PM
Min
at
4AM
*SOC
means
‘state
of
charge’
for
the
ba?eries
Modeled
peak
day:
June
23rd
2019
Es9mated
Peak:
61.25
MW
Storage:
7
MWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
BaSery
State
of
Charge
(%)
Power
(MW)
Solar
/
High
DG,
Peak
Load
Diesel
U9lity
PV
Distributed
PV
Load
Net
Load
SOC

21. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
2024 Dispatch Visualization Peak
at
2PM
Min
at
4AM
*SOC
means
‘state
of
charge’
for
the
ba?eries
Modeled
peak
day:
June
23rd
2024
Es9mated
Peak:
63.4MW
Storage:
20
MWh
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
BaSery
State
of
Charge
(%)
Power
(MW)
Solar
+
Wind
/
High
DG,
Peak
Load
Diesel
Wind
U9lity
PV
Distributed
PV
Load
Net
Load
SOC

22. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
2024 Dispatch Visualization Peak
at
2PM
Min
at
4AM
*SOC
means
‘state
of
charge’
for
the
ba?eries
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
BaSery
State
of
Charge
(%)
MW
Solar
+
Wind
+
Geo
/
High
DG,
Peak
Load
Geothermal
Diesel
Wind
U9lity
PV
Distributed
PV
Load
Net
Load
SOC
Modeled
peak
day:
June
23rd
2024
Es9mated
Peak:
63.4MW
Storage:
20
MWh

23. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Grid Integration Study -Methodology
23
Defini<on
of
grid
regula<on
Result
of
viola<on
Mi<ga<on
Thermal
Loading
Grid
regula<ons
define
a
maximum
(100%)
thermal
load
on
lines,
conductors,
wires
and
other
equipment
Loading
above
100%
could
cause
equipment
damage
or
fires
Equipment
upgrades
can
be
required
to
avoid
thermal
overloading
Reverse
Power
Flow
Current
equipment
meters
do
not
typically
sense
the
flow
of
power
from
the
genera<on
area
to
the
line.
Reverse
flow
from
distributed
genera<on
such
as
solar
PV
could
cause
voltage
problems
Equipment
upgrades
could
be
required
to
sense
power
flow
from
both
direc<ons
Over
and
under
voltage
Regula<ons
require
voltage
at
all
points
on
the
distribu<on
system
to
be
between
95%
and
105%
of
nominal
Over
or
under
voltage
results
in
customer’s
equipment
issues
or
damage,
and
service
may
be
lost
Installa<on
of
line
regulators,
smart
inverters,
and
capacitor
banks
could
be
required
Tes<ng
select
scenarios
in
future
years
for
grid
stability

24. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Distribution Study: Methodology
Data
inputs
provided
by
LUCELEC
• Conductor
data
• Historical
load
data
by
feeder
• Distribu9on
maps
in
AutoCAD
Methodology
• Distribu9on
maps
converted
to
Synergi
analy9cal
model
• Grid
regula9on
compliance
review
• Verify
results
with
substa9on
measurements
• Tests
a
variety
of
load
and
DG
scenarios
• Feeder
peak
day9me
load
and
feeder
minimum
day9me
load
• For
each
load
and
DG
scenario,
sta9c
and
quasi-­‐sta9c
load
flow
analyses
were
performed
to
iden9fy
technical
viola9ons
on
the
distribu9on
system.
2
4

25. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Transmission Study: Methodology
• Inves9gates
the
impact
of
new
genera9on
resources
(solar,
wind
and
geothermal)
• Analyses
done
at
minimum
day9me
load
and
peak
day9me
load,
as
well
as
during
normal
condi9on
and
N-­‐1
condi9on.
• Dynamic
simulates
the
outage
of
the
largest
generator
and
the
ability
of
the
system
to
recover
with
various
RE
penetra9ons
and
technologies.
• Tests
the
impact
of
voltage
and
frequency
ride
through.
• Examines
spinning
reserve
based
on
diesel
opera9ons,
and
presumes
spinning
reserve
when
determining
system
changes
and
recovery.
25
Transmission
map
provided
by
LUCELEC,
and
modeled
in
PowerWorld
and
GE
tools

26. ROC
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Capital and Operating Cost Projections
26

27. ROC
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Total Cost and Renewable Target Implications
27
Reducing
total
costs
while
mee9ng
renewable
energy
goals
is
possible

28. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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LUCELEC Participation is Key
• A
few
situa9ons
make
Independent
Power
Producers
(IPPs)
the
right
choice
for
genera9on:
– Large
projects
requiring
capital
infusion
the
u9lity
normally
does
not
have
access
to
– Technological
complexity
that
exceeds
the
capability
of
the
u9lity
– U9lity
is
insolvent
or
poorly
managed
and
cannot
access
capital
at
a
decent
rate
• LUCELEC
is
a
viable,
well-­‐managed,
u9lity
with
access
to
low-­‐
cost
capital
• LUCELEC
ownership
of
certain
renewable
energy
assets
(such
as
solar
and
storage)
play
a
role
for
least-­‐cost
genera9on

29. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Best Practices & Lessons Learned4
29

30. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Positive Outcome –Holistic Approach
• In
the
past,
LUCELEC
commissioned
individual
studies,
e.g.,
biomass,
heat
recovery
and
alterna9ve
fuels
• Government
sets
targets,
e.g.
renewable
energy,
climate
commitments
and
energy
efficiency.
• Individual
projects
are
then
typically
assessed
in
silos
• The
NETS
assesses
all
technology
op9ons
simultaneously,
and
analyzes
their
interac9ons
between
each
other
and
the
impact
on
economics
• Allows
u9lity
to
develop
investment
strategy
and
Government
to
make
long-­‐term
policy
decisions,
at
the
same
9me
and
on
the
same
basis
• Integra9ng
with
ongoing
projects
helps
prove
the
assump9ons
of
the
IRP.

31. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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Challenges
Data
Collec<on:
• Data
does
not
always
exist
or
is
not
in
the
right
format
– RMI-­‐CWR
interviewed
key
personnel
to
gather
data
– RMI-­‐CWR
hired
temporary
worker
to
transcribe
handwripen
generator
data
• Limited
access
to
proprietary
data
– For
each
resource,
it
is
cri9cal
to
have
both
energy
&
economic
inputs
– Extrapola9ng
from
one
data
source,
or
from
outdated
data,
has
limita9ons
Government
Turnover:
• Complex
and
new
discussions
require
con9nuity
of
staff
engagement.
This
was
well
managed
by
GoSL.

32. ROC
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Questions?
32
Support
Provided
By:
Partners:

33. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Appendix
33

34. ROC
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INSTITUTE W
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Load Forecast –Inputs & Methodology
• Annual
and
Monthly
historical
sales
by
customer
category
provided
by
LUCELEC
for
the
last
10
years
• DNV
GL
conducted
a
site
visit
week
of
27th
January
to
interview
LUCELEC,
Invest
Saint
Lucia,
and
future
Hotels
&
Commercial
Customers
for
special
projects
• Macro-­‐socioeconomic
data
from
Eastern
Caribbean
Central
Bank
and
World
Bank
• Modeled
this
out
to
2025.
Preliminary
data
shows
that
load
growth
can
achieve
a
30MW
base-­‐load.
(Number
of
Customers)
x
(Average
Consump5on
per
Customer)
=
Total
Consump9on

35. ROC
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Least Cost Generation Options Methodology
• Build
upon
the
HOMER
model
developed
by
John
Glassmire,
Director
of
Energy
Engineering
at
HOMER
Energy
for
the
work
funded
through
World
Bank
– What
mix
of
energy
sources
(whether
renewable
and/or
fossil
fuel)
is
the
most
economical
to
provide
power
for
Saint
Lucia
(looking
only
at
genera9on)?
• Use
input
projec9ons
to
run
HOMER
for
various
years
in
the
future
and
determine
op9mal
supply
mix
for
each
year
– In
what
years
should
new
supply
resources
be
added
to
the
system?
– How
will
the
mix
of
supply
resources
operate
in
each
year
(hourly
dispatch)?
• Use
HOMER
outputs
(supply
mix,
opera9on
of
supply
resources,
fuel
used,
etc.)
as
inputs
to
next
models:
grid
integra9on,
u9lity
business
model,
&
rate
impact
• Have
contracted
HOMER
Energy
for
addi9onal
support
and
QC
35

36. ROC
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Utility Business Model -Methodology
Approach:
• Assess
LUCELEC’s
current
governing
regula9ons
for
rate
determina9on
(allowable
rate
of
return)
• Use
current
regula9ons
and
financial
statements
to
assess
how
different
renewable
assets
will
influence
LUCELEC
financial
status
and
tariffs
in
coming
years
• Specifically
consider
debt
and
equity
op9ons
for
renewable
and
thermal
investments,
as
well
as
the
implica9ons
of
energy
efficiency,
distributed
genera9on,
and
storage.
36
Volumetric
Rate
Structure
(charged
per
kWh
$0.499
$0.474
-­‐$0.196
-­‐$0.400
-­‐$0.200
$-­‐
$0.200
$0.400
$0.600
$0.800
$1.000
$1.200
Fuel
Adjustment
Fuel
Passthrough
Base
Rate
2016
Commercial
Low
Tension:
ECD
$.777
*The
base
rate
is
set
in
the
2006
ESA
Amendment

37. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Load Forecasting -Results
3
7
• Energy
Sales:

38. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Load Forecasting -Results
3
8
• Peak
Demand:

39. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Demand Side Management & Energy
Efficiency! DNV
GL
developed
satura9on
and
energy
consump9on
es9mates
for
specific
end
use
components
for
each
Class
(domes9c,
commercial,
hotels):
• Example:
3
9
Refrigeration
27.3%
Water Heating
20.5%
TV
12.7%
Lighting
7.2%
Space Cooling
6.2%
Freezer
5.7%
PC
5.6%
Miscellaneous
4.4%
Pool Pump
3.5%
Clothes
Washer
3.3% Cooking
1.6%
Clothes Dryer
1.6%
Dishwashers
0.3%

40. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Island-Wide Solar Resource Assessment
• Developed
constructability
parameters
for
each
solar
PV
technology
(ground-­‐mount,
roolop,
carport)
• Example
(roolop):
4
0

41. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
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CARBON
Rate reduction is maximized with LUCELEC ownership
41
$0.89
$0.91
$0.84
$0.80
$0.85
$0.84
$0.74
$0.76
$0.78
$0.80
$0.82
$0.84
$0.86
$0.88
$0.90
$0.92
1. Fossil Fuel Only 2. Solar High DG 3. Solar Mid DG 7. Solar Wind Low
DG
13. Solar Geo Wind
Low DG
14. Thermal IPP
$ECD/kWh
Customer Rate (after 20 years)

42. ROC
KY MOUN
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INSTITUTE W
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CARBON
LUCELEC debt burden over time
2016
2021
2026
2031
totaldebtburden
Debt
Burden
(Total
Long
Term
Debt
Divided
by
Tangible
Net
Worth)
Fossil Fuel Only
Solar, High DG, Debt Constrained
Solar, Mid DG
Solar + Wind, Low DG
Solar + Wind + Geo, Low DG
Thermal IPP
1
2
0
* long term debt divided by tangible net worth
No
scenarios
exceed
current
LUCELEC
targets
Natural
gas
debt
can
be
reduced
if
supplier
finances
all
Saint
Lucia
infrastructure
(storage,
receiving
terminal,
generator
retrofits)

43. ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE W
AR ROOM
CARBON
Sensitivity Analysis: Fuel Price Forecast
Four
alterna<ve
scenarios
were
inves<gated,
with
varying
pathways
for
fuel
price.
43
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Diesel
Price
(USD
/
liter)
Examined
Fuel
Sensi<vi<es
Reference
Case
(pre-­‐
hedging)
Fuel
Returns
to
2012
Level
in
Five
Years
Vola9le
Future
(based
on
historical
vola9lity)
Globally
Depressed
Fuel
Prices
Results
forthcoming

44. ROC
KY MOUN
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CARBON
A renewable transition reduces exposure to
volatile fuel futures
44
$-­‐
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
Reference
Case
Fuel
Returns
to
2012
Level
in
Five
Years
Vola9le
Future
(based
on
historical
vola9lity)
Globally
Depressed
Fuel
Prices
Millions
of
ECD
20-­‐Year
Expenditure
to
Operate
Electricity
System
Solar,
Wind,
and
Low
DG
Scenario
Fossil
Fuel
Only
(Reference
Case)
In
a
vola9le
and
high
fuel
future,
total
costs
increase
38%
when
opera9ng
diesel,
versus
28%
for
a
renewable
mix