Repeated Survey of Public Attitudes Following an Extended Period of Exceptional Drought in Texas - Boellstorff
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This document summarizes the results of repeated surveys of public attitudes regarding water issues in Texas following periods of drought. It finds that from 2008 to 2014, the percentage of Texans who believe that water quantity is an issue in their area and that their area will experience prolonged drought both increased significantly. Additionally, the percentage of Texans who believe there will likely not be enough water resources to meet needs in 10 years increased substantially. The survey also found that more Texans now believe global warming will cause a significant decrease in rainfall, though about a third still say they don't know.
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Repeated Survey of Public Attitudes Following an Extended Period of Exceptional Drought in Texas - Boellstorff
- 1. Repeated Survey of Public Attitudes Following an Extended Period of Exceptional Drought Diane Boellstorff, Drew Gholson, Scott Cummings and Mark McFarland AUG 2008 JUNE 2011 OCT 2011 APR 2014
- 2. Acknowledgements • Project is part of the National Water Survey Needs Assessment (2001-present) led by Dr. Robert Mahler, Univ. of Idaho. • Funded by the USDA/CSREES National Water Program. • Questionnaire was developed by institutional water quality coordinators nationwide. State-level modifications were accepted. 2
- 3. Water Issues: A Survey of Public Attitudes Project goals: • Gauge the level of public knowledge and concerns about water issues • Determine priorities for outreach/educational programs • Measure the impacts of outreach programs and changes in public attitudes at 5-year intervals Typical Resulting State Publication
- 4. Survey Design and Administration • Instrument: – Based on the survey developed for US EPA Region 10 (2002) – 59 questions • Distribution – Random sample of residential mailing addresses – August 2008 and April 2014 – Four-stage mailing procedure following Dillman (2000) Cover letter and survey with a self-addressed, stamped envelope mailed Reminder postcard mailed 20 days later to nonresponders 20 days later, another cover letter, survey and business reply envelope mailed to nonresponders 20 days later, another reminder postcard was sent to nonresponders 4
- 5. Survey Instrument • Importance of water resource issues • Importance of management actions • Drinking water issues • Water quality and water availability • Water resource information • Demographics and residence 2014 2008
- 6. Respondent Demographics: 2008 and 2014 2008 2014 Response Rate 33% of 1275 29% of 1655 N 419 475 Average Age 57 49 Gender Male: 63% Female: 36% Male: 49% Female: 51% Years in Texas: All my life or more than 10 years 89% 92%
- 7. Respondent Demographics: 2008 and 2014 2008 2014 Response Rate 33% of 1275 29% of 1655 N 419 475 Average Age* 57 49 Gender* Male: 63% Female: 36% Male: 49% Female: 51% Years in Texas: All my life or more than 10 years 89% 92%
- 8. Respondent Demographics: Sample and TX Pop. 2008 2014 TX Live Inside City Limits 73% 73% 75 - 80% Community Size > 25,000 69% 73% 75 – 80% Completed High School 95%a 97%b 81%
- 9. Analysis • Focuses on four questions related to water availability, drought and climate change • Examines likelihood of selecting a response depending on before/after drought and socio-demographic information Chi-squared tests Logistic / ordinal logistic regression (JMP 11.2.0) 9
- 11. 15.1 29.1 7.9 25.4 22.5 6.8 21.4 10.3 24.4 37.2 Definitely not Probably not I don't know Probably Definitely 0 10 20 30 40 Percent Is water quantity a problem in the area where you live?
- 12. 15.1 29.1 7.9 25.4 22.5 6.8 21.4 10.3 24.4 37.2 Definitely not Probably not I don't know Probably Definitely 0 10 20 30 40 2014 2008 Percent Is water quantity a problem in the area where you live?
- 13. 7.9 44.2 47.9 10.3 28.2 61.6 I don't know Definitely Not or Probably Not Definitely or Probably 0 20 40 60 80 2014 2008 Percent Is water quantity a problem in the area where you live?
- 14. 2008 2014 Increasing 52% 69% Staying the same 38% 22% Decreasing 2% 2% No opinion 8% 7% The likelihood of your area suffering from a prolonged drought is:
- 15. The likelihood of your area having enough water resources to meet all of its needs 10 years from now is: High (likely enough water) Medium Low (likely not enough water) No opinion 20 41 30 87 32 53 8 2008 2014
- 17. Do you think that the amount of rainfall in your area will change as a result of global warming? 2008 2014 Yes, a significant increase in rainfall 6% 3% Yes, a slight increase in rainfall 7% 3% No, no change in rainfall 26% 18% Yes, a slight decrease in rainfall 17% 17% Yes, a significant decrease in rainfall 13% 26% I don’t know 30% 34%
- 18. Conclusions • From 2008 to 2014, the percentage of Texans replying that water quantity is an issue in their area increased from 47% to 61% (p < 0.0001). • Similarly, the percentage of Texans believing that that their area will experience prolonged drought increased from 52% to 69% (p < 0.0001). • Texans believe that there is only a low likelihood that their areas will have enough water resources to meet needs 10 years from now increased from 30% to 53%. • Texans indicating that global warming will cause significant decreases in rainfall increased from 13% to 26%; however, about a third still say, “Don’t Know.”
- 19. Questions?
Editor's Notes
- Set baseline data —to compare successes of future programs
- 12 stage question development process 16 states
- Texas population grew 2.6 million from 2008 to 2014. Random addresses obtained from SSI in CT. Median age in Texas is 33, but that figure includes 0-17 and our sample excluded that group.
- Texas population grew 2.6 million from 2008 to 2014. Random addresses obtained from SSI in CT. Median age in Texas is 33, but that figure includes 0-17 and our sample excluded that group.
- Large increase in the number of college graduates (more categories in detailed analysis). Went from 40% to 60%. Possibly because of slight recession in Texas, more students completed college instead of going to work (there was also a reduction of the category of some college or vocational – and so maybe they were going ahead and completing). HS grads are 86% for US. Involved in farming and ranching essentially the same from 3.9% to 4.5%. About 75 percent of Texans now live in cities of 50,000 people or more. An additional 5 percent live in communities of 2,500 people or more. That leaves about 3.8 million Texans living in rural areas, compared to 21.3 million Texas living in suburban or urban areas.
- Most of our residential water use is for landscaping and it is estimated that usually half of that water is wasted, and so that area is where there is the most room for conservation improvement.
- Most of our residential water use is for landscaping and it is estimated that usually half of that water is wasted, and so that area is where there is the most room for conservation improvement.
- Ordinal logistic fit of likelihood of drought with community size, years lived in Texas, Gender, Age and Educational Attainment showed that Educational Attainment had the greatest effect and toward increased likelihood of drought (78% thought increasing in 2014 vs. 60% in 2008, significantly more). Note to me: look at Have you ever changed your mind . . . question.
- In 2008, gender was the strongest predictor, with more men optimistic that there will be enough water in 10 years than were women (p<.0050, Likelihood Ratio). In 2014, the strongest predictors were residency where NONE of those currently engaged in farming thought chances were high that there would be enough water. Also, those with less or some high school were more likely to express no opinion on this topic in 2014 than in 2008 and so Educational Attainment was also a good predictor.
- Population growth in many areas of Texas has been rapid. About 1,400 people move to Texas each day. Very large cities include Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin. Population growth for state from Apr. 2010 to July, 2014 was 7.2%. Current population is 26.7 million.
- Many Texans still don’t know what to think about climate change. Increase in the significant decrease in rainfall seems to have come from the No change in rainfall category.
- May I field any questions you may have?