Climate Impacts on Water Management

Changing Climate Conditions – Impacts on Water
Management
• Dennis Todey, Director
• International Drainage Symposium
• 31 August 2022

Topics/Agenda
• A brief Background of USDA Climate Hubs
• Partners, Executive Committee and Steering Committee
• More on the Midwest Climate Hub
• Water-ag issues
• For More Information
• Website
• Contact Info

Intro to Climate Hub Work
Assessments and Syntheses
*delivering relevant information*
Outreach and Education
*enabling climate-informed decisions*
Technical Support
*facilitating engagement, discovery and exchange*

Here in the Midwest…
Our Goal
To provide information to help
producers cope with climate
change through linkages of
research, education and
partnerships in a region that
represents one of the most
intense areas of agricultural
production in the world.

Partners Stakeholders
Crop Consultants
Commodity Organizations
Soil and Water
Conservation Districts
Other USDA Agencies
Cooperative Extension
Land Grant Universities
Farmers
Ranchers
Forest Land Owners
Specialty Crop Growers
…And Many Others

Climate-Impacted Issues for Agriculture
• Bigger events
• More extremes
• Larger disaster issues
• Increased variability

Climate-Impacted Issues for Agriculture
• Since 1989 Iowa has 3rd highest RMA indemnity payments
https://swclimatehub.info/rma/rma-data-viewer.html
• Texas $20.6B
• North Dakota $12.7B
• Iowa $10.6B
• Drought-largest
• Wetness – most consistent

Precipitation Change
https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series
Only 7 of last 25 years below long term average.
Iowa Spring Precipitation Changes

Falls wet, also. Trend is not as large.
Iowa Fall Precipitation Changes

Drought still an issue – not as frequent/severe.
Iowa mid-summer Drought (PDSI)

• Flooding/inundation (extended periods)
• Increasing precip intensity/amounts (especially off-season)
• More soil/nutrient loss potential
• Soil loss
• Reducing tillage
• Cover crops
• Splash potential
• Drought?
• Still occurs
• Even in wet years…
• Location specific
Issues from Precipitation Changes

30 Year Climatology (Le Mars)
Using the new 1991-2020 normals

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter08.pdf
Trends in
Terrestrial
Water Storage
April 2002-
March 2016
GRACE
Observations

PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
Changing Climate Impact on Agriculture

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/7/
US National Climate
Assessment 4 –
Projected
Precipitation
Take home message
– more precipitation
winter/spring. Less
summer.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter04.pdf

Climate Change Indicators for Agriculture
ISU Extension Agronomy Fall Meeting
22 September 2020
Dennis Todey
USDA Midwest Climate Hub
https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/document
s/climate_indicators_for_agriculture.pdf
https://naldc.nal.usda.gov/catalog/7201760

https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/midwest
Search for tools,
research and events
by Region, Topic,
type of crop, or
climate Impact.
Resources: Web Site

For More Information
Dennis Todey, Director
515-294-2013
Dennis.todey@usda.gov
Laurie Nowatzke - Coordinator
Laurie.Nowatzke@usda.gov
515 294-0213
Fellow - TBD
@USDAClimateHubs
@dennistodey
https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hub
s/midwest
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment
Attn: Midwest Climate Hub
1015 N University Blvd
Ames, Iowa 50011-3611

Advancing Drainage Research
to Meet a Changing Climate
Richard Cooke

•Digital Revolution
•Weather Variations
•Evolving Ethos
Changing Climates

Revolutionary Change
Feigenbaum
Change that brings about an
order of magnitude change in
the outcome of a process

R. Wayne Skaggs
Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 33(6): 793-799.
(doi: 10.13031/aea.12302) @2017
Coefficients for Quantifying
Subsurface Drainage Rates
•Drainage Intensity
•Drainage Coefficient
•Kirkham Coefficient

Explore the Profitability of Decoupling
the Sizing of Laterals and Mains

Explore the Uncertainty (Risk) Associated with
Alternate Sizing of Laterals and Mains
•Variable Soil
Properties
•Smaller Laterals?
•Main sizes based on
Flow P.O.E.

Weather Variations
I project biophysically driven shifts in
cultivation geographies to 2100 under low,
moderate, and high emissions scenarios
and find that these geographies will shift
strongly north, with the Corn Belt
becoming unsuitable to the cultivation of
corn by 2100. These results indicate that
significant agricultural adaptation will be
necessary and inevitable in the Central and
Eastern U.S.

Climate Change and Crop Productivity
DRAINMOD simulated relative yields for corn and soybean grown on Ipava soil in
Fulton County using historical climate data for 1981-2010.

Climate Change and Crop Productivity
DRAINMOD simulated relative yields for corn and soybean grown on Ipava soil in
Fulton County using projected climate data for 2041-2070.

Explore Site Suitability for Subirrigation

Develop Guidelines for the Operation of
Combination Drainage /Subirrigation Systems
• Deficit Subirrigation?
• ECONOMICS
• Water Supply ?
• Water Conveyance
• Water Distribution

Drainage Design Under an
Evolving Ethos
Definition of Ethos
The distinguishing character, sentiment, moral
nature, or guiding beliefs of a person, group, or
institution

From the Old
Great western waste of bottom land,
Flat as a pancake, rich as grease;
Where mosquitoes are as big as toads,
and toads are full as big as geese.
E. Duis, The Good Old Times in McLean County, Illinois, Bloomington, IL, 1874

From the Old
A swamp at the mountain’s base,
Pollutes all that has yet been gained;
To drain this pestiferous place,
Is still the goal to be attained.

County 1820 (acres) 1976 (acres)
Livingston 633,400 2.4
Iroquois 651,000 48
Ford 297,100 6.4
McLean 669,800 5
Logan 336,500 0
De Witt 206,900 0
Macon 322,700 0
Piatt 254,000 0
Champaign 592,300 1
Vermillion 449,500 4.1
Prairie Acreage in Central Illinois

To the New
The swamp isn't a useless piece
of land. A swamp is a kind of
wetland. Wetlands are important
to humans.
Dae-Seung Yang, The Salamander's Trial: A Wetland Story, 2020

Estimated 75 Million Acres of Wetlands in Africa

Sierra Leone is 7.2 million ha is size, of which 5.4
million ha (74 %) are potentially cultivable.

Can the Productivity in Lowlands be Increased Without
Them Being Disconnected from Surface Water Bodies?

Thank You
We cannot justify spending our time on
trivial problems just because the ones we
really need to solve are difficult
Mother Earth News 100

Architecture + Engineering + Environmental + Planning | ISGInc.com
ADVANCING
DRAINAGE
to Meet a Changing Climate
Chuck Brandel, PE
ISGVice President
2022 International Drainage Symposium

ISG Representative
Chuck Brandel, PE, ISGVice President
507.387.6651 | Chuck.Brandel@ISGInc.com

ISG Firm Overview
Business Units
Commercial
Education
Food
+ Industrial
Government
+ Cultural
Healthcare
Housing
Mining
PublicWorks
Sports
+ Recreation
Telecommunications
+ Energy
Transportation
Water
450+ Multi-Disciplinary Professionals
11 Midwest Offices

Importance of Drainage
Most of the Midwest
needs artificial drainage to
support agriculture
Infrastructure is old, but there
are new farming practices
Numerous public drainage
systems were constructed
between 1900-1930

Changing Climate
Economic
Do we have stability?
Political
Why can’t everyone get along?
Design approach
Using technology to get it right and sell it
Infrastructure needs
and farming techniques
Bigger, faster, less people to feed more
Processes and review
Everyone has an opinion and lawyer
Mother nature
Don’t put the umbrella away

Infrastructure is Failing

Old Drainage Mentality
“Water is the Enemy” and
“Send Water Downstream”
• Drain wetlands and shallow
lakes for productive agricultural
land
• The land needs to be farmed
• Health concerns
Mosquitos
• Flooding concerns
• Designed tile for 0.10-0.25”
per day
• Designed open ditches for
0.5-1.0” per day
• 3-4 different crops
Small grain and hay generally in low land

Modern Design
Drainage Demands
• Meet new farming demands
• Increase pattern tiling
• Improve and upsize system
To handle more frequent intense rainfall
• Current infrastructure is not designed
for today’s standards
• Less People Farming More Land
• World Grain Demand
Water Quality Concerns
• Gulf hypoxia
• Stream bank erosion
• Drinking water contamination
• Protection of lakes and streams
WouldYou Drive your Ferrari on a Dirt Road?

Process Review
Everyone has an opinion and a lawyer
• Landowners
Old school versus new school
• Laws are scrutinized and law changes are
proposed
MN HF4274 Drainage Registry – Early Coordination with
outside groups is being demanded
• Agencies are reviewing models and
asking for things outside of Statute/Law
Requirements
Landowners scrutinize costs and inflation is making
projects tougher to approve
• Special interest groups
Showing interest and hiring their own engineers to
review projects
Need to balance drainage and environmental needs
Perform a feasibility study
Meet with landowners on
site
Look at options
Informational meeting
Meet with agencies
Discuss water quality
Start a petition
DISCUSS
MDM
AND
WATER
QUALITY
AT
EVERY
STEP
Goal Posts are Moving and We need to Adapt
our Playbook

ISG’s Drainage Process
Perform a feasibility study
Preliminary engineering
report
Final engineering
report
Construction
DISCUSS
MDM
AND
WATER
QUALITY
AT
EVERY
STEP

Mother Nature
Don’t put away the umbrella
• Changing climate
• More water
• More intense rainfall events
Especially over less days
• More flooding
• Can’t Just sendWater
Downstream
• More scrutiny
• Atlas 14 updates
• 100-year event changed from
6” per 24 hours to 7.5” per
24 hours
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Census of 2-inch precip days by year
at 39 long-term stations

Mother Nature
Important factors
• Storage design
• Streams are experiencing channel
forming events more frequently
• Streams are experiencing eroding
events more frequently
• Need to Balance Storage Needs and
Costs – Get it right!
• Drainage
• Sustain agriculture
• Sustain agriculture economy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1916
1920
1924
1928
1932
1936
1940
1944
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016

Economic
Can we have stability?
• 40+ years of agricultural
drainage experience
• Drainage projects increase in later
2000s and early 2010s
• ISG started tracking bid prices in
2010
• Nearly 500 recorded tile
bid prices
Mainly dual wall HDPE
• Pipe sizes range from
6” to 60"
• Numbers are all bids
not low bids
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
October
1,
2013
March
12,
2015
April
1,
2015
July
4,
2015
November
8,
2015
February
1,
2016
April
1,
2016
January
4,
2017
March
5,
2017
March
7,
2017
March
9,
2017
April
4,
2017
June
6,
2017
October
1,
2017
August
1,
2017
August
1,
2017
February
2,
2018
June
22,
2018
February
28,
2018
November
2,
2018
February
12,
2019
February
21,
2019
February
27,
2019
February
12,
2019
April
24,
2019
June
11,
2019
June
25,
2019
June
12,
2019
August
29,
2019
September
6,
2019
October
28,
2019
December
13,
2019
February
11,
2020
February
12,
2020
February
21,
2020
March
16,
2020
April
20,
2020
April
30,
2020
June
2,
2020
July
17,
2020
September
17,
2020
October
1,
2020
October
30,2020
November
16,
2020
November
16,
2020
January
22,
2021
January
28,
2021
February
12,
2021
March
25,
2021
March
26,
2021
Agriculutral Drain Tile (48-Inch to 24-Inch)
48-INCH AGRICULTURAL TILE 42-INCH AGRICULTURAL TILE 36-INCH AGRICULTURAL TILE
30-INCH AGRICULTURAL TILE 24-INCH AGRICULTURAL TILE

AverageYearly Pipe Price Increase Summary as of Spring 2022
Historic yearly percent
increase is 5% from
2010 to 2020
Since 2020 historic
yearly increase is 15%

Political
Can we all just get along?
• More challenges to projects
• Law changes are being proposed
• Special interest groups
Changed the focus to drainage with a focus
on clean streams and rivers and early coordination
• Gulf hypoxia
It doesn’t just affect the corn belt/Midwest
• Storage and water quality are
not always cost effective
Typically do not force these practices on landowners
• Elected officials are making the decisions
Being an engineer, salesman, lawyer, politician, and lobbyist all at the same time!

What does this mean – We have to Design Differently
We have the technology
to design better
• Controlled drainage
• Storage
• Bioreactors
• Saturated buffers
• Wetlands
• Water recycling
• Other practices

Design Approach
GIS, ACPF, XP SWMM models, along
with drone footage, are used to verify
water storage within the watershed to
properly size improvements and put
storage and BMPs in the correct areas.

Many Good Projects are being
Built with Partners and Funding
Jackson/Heron Lake JD 3
Wetlands and Riparian Buffer

WorkingTogether to doThings
Better and Differently
Good things are weathering climate change
and we need to work together to make sure
they continue
• Experts that know where to put
Storage/BMPs
• More targeted funding
• Data to support what does and doesn’t
work
• Get landowner support
• Get agency, special interest and
government support for funding and
projects
• Get people excited about storage and
water quality
• Need Drainage and Infrastructure
Improvements to keep up with the
changing climate and to feed the world

THANK
YOU!
Chuck Brandel, PE, ISGVice President
507.387.6651 | Chuck.Brandel@ISGInc.com

Advancing Drainage
Wall Street Journal - Nov 1 2018 - The Roots of Political Polarization

Farmers caught in the ‘cost-price squeeze’

Increasing land prices & rented land
Rented acreage
39%
(54% of cropland)
43%
SW Ontario
CAN$20-30,000/ac
22% increase in ‘21
USDA Land Values 2020 Summary

DW – July 14, 2022 - Dutch farmers feel they face an impossible pollution ultimatum

8th Line of
Moorefield, ON
May 15, 2022

Not all BMPs are
created equally* . . .
*See Roger’s Diffusion of Innovation theory

Mel Luymes
mel@drainage.org
519-820-2358

Climate Impacts on Water Management

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