2. 2
Leading Canada’s transition
to a clean energy future
The Pembina Institute is a national non-profit think tank that
advances clean energy solutions through research, education,
consulting and advocacy.
4. Climate and Air
Average oilsands production is significantly more
greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensive than conventional
oil production
• Production emissions typically 3.2 to 4.5 times more
greenhouse gas emissions than conventional oil
• Lifecycle emissions are higher than conventional (23% EU, 8-
37% Canada/US)
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5. Climate and Air
Oilsands emissions are a growing problem
• Large per-barrel decreases in GHG intensity have stalled
or worsened
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Past changes in industry-wide greenhouse gas intensity in the oilsands
6. Climate and Air
Oilsands emissions matter on a national scale,
and are a significant barrier to meeting Canada’s
2020 climate commitment
• Oilsands emissions accounted for 7% of Canada’s
emissions in 2010, forecasted to be 14% in 2020
• Emissions forecast to reach levels higher than the
emissions from every province except AB and ON
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7. Climate and Air
Oilsands emissions matter on a global scale
• Canada is among top-10 GHG producers on absolute and
per capita basis
• Oilsands growth is challenging Canada to meet its
international climate target due to massive growth
• While other sectors in Canada’s economy are expected to
reduce GHGs by 67 Mt by 2020 (relative to 2005 levels),
oilsands GHGs are expected to add 72 Mt of GHGs
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8. Climate and Air
Current regulations do not result in meaningful
reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from
oilsands development
• Alberta regulations ($15/tonne x 12% of emissions = $1.80
compliance cost)
• Carbon capture and storage costs $95-$225/tonne
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9. Climate and Air
Air quality is starting to be impacted by oilsands
air pollution
• Air quality exceedances increasing
• 33X more exceedances in northeastern AB in 2009
compared to 2004
• Air concentrations for NO2, SO2, H2S and O3 getting close
to limit levels
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10. Water
Water monitoring in northeastern Alberta has
been inadequate, yet governments continue to
approve new oilsands projects
• Federal/Provincial plan not complete until 2015
• 5.2 million barrels approved
• Peer-reviewed research continues to show oilsands
development is having an impact on water quality
• Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons now 2.5 to 23 times
greater than 1960 levels in some lakes due to oilsands
development
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11. Water
Oilsands extraction uses large amounts of water,
despite recycling efforts
• Mining – 2 to 4 barrels of water per barrel of bitumen after
recycling
• In situ extraction – 0.8 to 1.7 barrels of water to extract and
upgrade a barrel of oil
• In 2011, oilsands industry used 170 million cubic metres of
water, equivalent to the residential water use of 1.7 million
Canadians
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12. Water
Oilsands companies are not required to
stop withdrawing water from the Athabasca
River, even if river flows are so low that
fisheries and habitat are at risk
• Water allocations from Athabasca River nearly
doubled in past decade due to oilsands
• Current water withdrawal management framework
prioritizes industry use over aquatic protection
• Missing element – Ecosystem Base Flow (EBF)
absolute cut off point above which no withdrawals are
allowed (rare event, 1/100 years)
• GoA now missed two deadlines to release final
framework
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13. Tailings
Oilsands tailings volumes continue to grow due
to a permissive regulatory approach
• Current tailings rules not enforced
• Lack of transparent reporting to indicate how companies
are faring today
• Rules only address a portion of tailings production
• 250% increase in tailings area since 2005
• Current area = 176 square kilometres
• Current volume = 830 million cubic metres
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14. Tailings
Tailings lakes house compounds known to be
acutely toxic to aquatic organisms
• Tailings concentrate naturally occurring compounds to
toxic levels over time
• Source of metals, PAHs, hydrocarbons, naphthenic acids
and solvents
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15. Tailings
Tailings lakes seep an undetermined amount of
toxic waste
• Little publicly available information exists to indicate how
operators are monitoring or capturing this seepage
• Tailings seepage rate is ~ 11 million litres/day
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16. Tailings
Capping toxic tailings waste in end pit lakes with
water is an unproven and risky concept
• Could take decades to determine whether end pit lakes
are a viable and safe permanent storage site for tailings
• 29 end pit lakes have been proposed by oilsands
operators
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17. Land and Wildlife
Restoration of wetlands continues to be a major
challenge and may never occur
• Peatlands likely to be permanently lost after mining
• As of 2011, approved mining production is expected to
result in a loss of approximately 28,000 hectares of
peatland
• Alberta has no wetland policy to prevent wetland loss in
northeastern Alberta
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18. Land and Wildlife
In situ developments may affect a much larger
area than oilsands mining
• In situ potential 30X larger than mineable region
• More GHG-intensive than mining
• Results in significant landscape fragmentation
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19. Land and Wildlife
Woodland caribou herds are declining in the
oilsands and are on track to be extirpated
• Local extinction likely in 30 years
• Federal recovery strategy identifies 65% intact habitat
target
• Undisturbed caribou habitat in Northeastern Alberta = 24%
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20. Conclusions
• Significant opportunities to address oilsands
mismanagement
• Need a greater emphasis on management vs.
communications
• Pace and scale need to slow to accommodate
new policy solutions
• Role of technology limited without regulatory
drivers
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21. Economics
Taxpayers may foot the bill for cleanup of
oilsands mines
• Operators not responsible for 100% of cost of cleanup
• Little reclamation security and protection for Albertans over
life of mine until the end
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22. Economics
Relying on the volatile profits from oilsands
projects to fund essential services creates
financial risks for both the private and public
sector
• Oil grown from 18% to 46% of total Canadian commodity
production in past 15 years
• Price of oil fluctuates widely
• Oilsands producers have a narrow price window in which
to operate
• Oilsands roller coaster unreliable means to fund social
programs and provide ongoing revenue
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24. Climate and Air
Forecasted growth in oilsands will present very
serious air pollution challenges in the Wood
Buffalo Region
• Approved production is almost triple current operating
levels
• Modeled predictions for NO2 levels already exceed
Alberta’s air quality limits
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25. Land and Wildlife
The boreal forest will not be restored to its
native state following mine closure
• Objective is equivalent land capability vs. pre disturbance
state
• Forest uplands and end pit lakes vs. peatlands and old
growth forests
• Only 0.1% of total area disturbed by oilsands mining
certified as reclaimed
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27. Land and Wildlife
Oilsands development threatens to harm
millions of birds through habitat fragmentation
and destruction
• Regional bird populations currently healthy
• Mining may impact the breeding habitat for 280,000 to 3.6
million birds over 20-40 year period
• In situ development could impact as many as 14.5 million
birds
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28. Economics
The costs and benefits of oilsands development
are not spread evenly across Canada
• AB expected to reap 94% of GDP impacts from oilsands
development
• Jobs created by oilsands in next 25 years – 86% will
remain in AB
• Manufacturing sector declining while natural resource
sector booming
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Editor's Notes
You state economics here so I added two economics slides.