An opinion article by Dr Bob Williams

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SOMETHING HAPPENED AT DAYTON, OHIO - A BUTTERFLY
FLAPPED ITS WINGS - AND A NATION BURNS
An Opinion by Dr Robert Williams
January 2020
“A butterfly flaps its wings” is from “chaos theory”. The
butterfly effect is the concept that small causes can have
large effects. Initially, it was used with weather prediction
but later the term became a metaphor used in and out of
science. My “butterfly effect” may NOT be in accord with the
chaos theory literature but my point is that a ‘decision‘
might well seem appropriate for some event but the
consequences that follow can be quite chaotic.
A Nation Burns
At the time of writing this article it is the morning of 4 January 2020.
It is a tense time waiting how today turns out. The South Coast of
New South Wales and East Gippsland Victoria have catastrophic fires
conditions.
But how prepared are our agencies, from a command and control
perspective, for the planning and conduct of operations?

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Of course, that question is way beyond the scope of an opinion piece
and, indeed, requires a major capability study. So, I’ll just review
(from my experience and observation) the “mapping” component.
For weeks now the morning news have featured a briefing from the
New South Wales Rural Fire Service Operations Centre.
Figure 1: NSW RFS “Knowledge Wall”
The “Knowledge Wall” looks impressive but appears to be composite
of simple Google maps with symbols and relatively simple
annotation, along with (what appears to be) spreadsheets, media
screens, etc.
Elsewhere, there are images of paper maps joined together with
‘sticky notes’, notes on walls and scribbled notes on whiteboards.
We need to do better. We must have better decision
support systems.
All of the information in the images needs to be integrated into a
geographic, infrastructure and environmental information
infrastructure.
But, how is it, that entering the third decade of this century, maps
and charts are the basis for planning? Why haven’t we evolved into
National Geographic Information Infrastructure?

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Figure 2: It was the week before Christmas 2019
Well, something happened at Dayton, Ohio and a ‘butterfly flapped its
wings’!
Something Happened at Dayton, Ohio
On November 1, 1995, President William Jefferson Clinton called on
the warring factions in Bosnia to end the conflict that had cost over
three hundred thousand Serb, Croat, and Muslim lives since 1991. He
invited their representatives to come to Wright-Patterson Air Force
Base in Dayton, Ohio to negotiate an end to the ethnic discord.
In Dayton the U.S. delegation relied on a technical team led by the
Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) and the U.S. Army Topographic
Engineering Center. These agencies drew together a support team of
over fifty individuals who digitally mapped the disputed Balkans
areas in near-real-time to assist the diplomats in their deliberations.
The digital renderings included up-to-date terrain visualization with
cultural and economic data relating to potential boundaries.
Using automated cartography, computer-assisted map tailoring, and
spatial statistical analysis, the team regularly furnished fresh maps

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reflecting territorial dispositions that had been negotiated less than
thirty minutes earlier. The digital technique guaranteed accuracy,
consistency, and reliability. The power and flexibility of the
technology and the technicians gave the political decision makers the
confidence needed to reach agreement. Three-dimensional visual
imagery of the disputed areas permitted cartographers to walk
negotiators through disputed terrain, giving them a vivid and virtual
experience of the space. In at least one instance, this three-
dimensional experience proved crucial in persuading Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic to compromise on a disputed area.
The 1980s was a period of innovation allowing for the first half of the
1990s to bring in a transformation from maps and charts to a
geographic information infrastructure. But the 1990s would be a
decade of ‘uncertainty’.
This transformation had been underway, not only in the US defense
mapping agencies, but also in the 5 Nations MC&G group (USA, UK,
Canada, Australia and New Zealand / Mapping, Charting and
Geodesy), for decades. This transformation reached a ‘revolutionary’
stage in 1994 with the introduction of the Global Geospatial
Information and Services Initiative [GGIS].
Defense Mapping Agency – Headquarters (DMA HQ) hosted a
meeting for Dr. R. Williams at their Headquarters building on
Monday 21 November 1994, at which the agency introduced its
Global Geospatial Information and Services Initiative.
The concept of Global Geospatial Information and Services (GGIS)
was introduced as most revolutionary change in the provision and
use of geographic information for many decades. Up until then,
digital products have, in most cases, been digital representations of
traditional products, such as maps.
GGIS offered a managed evolutionary path to electronic distribution
of information and services, as well as effectively addressing
interoperability issues. The vision, and the road map to achieve it,
would facilitate joint interoperability for the Command, Control,
Communications and Intelligence (C4I) community.
A Task Force of the US Defense Science Board, chaired by Dr Craig
Fields, addressed the topic of “Defense Mapping for Future
Operations”. Its report was released on 15 September 1995.

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Figure 3: US DMA GII&S proposal 1994
Figure 4: US Defense Science Board – “Defense Mapping for Future Operations” -
1995

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This initiative, along with activities of the DGIWG (the Digital
Geographic Information Working Group – made up of NATO member
agencies and invited non-NATO countries) reached a key moment in
1995.
The 24th DGIWG Steering Committee Meeting was held in Berlin,
Germany 9 November - 17 November 1995. The US Defense Mapping
Agency (DMA) gave number of presentations including:
• VMap AD. The DIGEST Dataset AID (Aeronautical Information
Dataset) has been split into VMap AD (Aeronautical Data) that
contains 'static' aeronautical information and DFlip that will
contain more dynamic data. The product is at a prototype stage
with development being driven by the F16 upgrade and the
Eurofighter project.
• Tactical Littoral Data. The Tactical Littoral Dataset (or
Littoral Warfare Dataset - LWD) is a value-rich specialist
product (being a super set including Terrain Analysis Dataset
(TAD), Urban Vector Map (UVMap), Digital Flight
Information (DFLIP), Digital Nautical Dataset (DNC))
identified to support missions such as amphibious assault,
special operations, mine countermeasures, shallow water ASW
and logistics- over-the-shore. Requirements have been
provided by US Navy and US Marine Corps and endorsed by
ACS C4I USMC (MAJGEN Van Riper) and validated by D DMA
(MAJGEN Nuber). This product will be designed to cover the
area 200NM either side of the coastline and will include
METOC (Meteorology and Oceanography), hydrographic and
topographic data in the littoral areas.
Policy had been developed, product specifications had been
published and prototypes built. It seemed that the time had arrived
to transition from producing traditional maps and charts and digital
facsimiles of traditional maps and charts to a geospatial information
infrastructure.
Components of a Geospatial Information
Infrastructure along with Prototypes on a Range
of Operational Use Had Been Established

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But, a Butterfly Had Flapped Its Wings!
In April 1995, then Director Central Intelligence - designate John
Deutch told the [US] Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that, if
confirmed, he would "move immediately to consolidate the
management of all imagery collection, analysis, and distribution." He
argued, "Both effectiveness and economy can be improved by
managing imagery in a manner similar to the National Security
Agency's organization for signals intelligence.”
Despite reservations and objections, Deutch and Secretary of Defense
William Perry informed Congress in late November 1995 of their
plans to establish a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) as
a combat support agency within the Department of Defense on October
1, 1996.
Figure 5: US NIMA Geospatial Information Infrastructure Master Plan 1997
A Geospatial Information Infrastructure Master Plan commenced by
US Defense Mapping Agency was completed by the Integrated
Product Team of the successor agency National Imagery and
Mapping Agency and published on 17 October 1997.
The Geospatial Information Infrastructure (GII) Master
Plan included the Vision as “Our national security can be
enhanced by an ‘information edge’ made possible through this
new infrastructure for geospatial information. The

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infrastructure is the collection of people, doctrine, policies,
architectures, standards, and technologies necessary to
create, maintain, and utilize a shared geospatial framework”.
The creation of NIMA appears to be logical as shown in the figure
produced on NGA’s (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency)
creation in 2003.
The creation of NIMA bought together agencies with fundamentally
different cultures. The discussion on the topic has been simplified as
between ‘imagery analysts’ and ‘cartographers’. My view is that this
can be seen as an ‘intelligence view’ versus an ‘engineer view’ and
that this flows onto scientific and engineering disciplines.
Figure 6: Creation of US NIMA 1996

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Figure 7: Commentary on US NIMA 1999
Figure 8: Los Angeles Times - Commentary on US NIMA 1999
The early years of NIMA were characterised by a number of incidents
that were reported in the media as for Sunday’s edition of the “Los
Angeles Times” [16 May, 1999]. I was at Redlands, CA then for a visit
to ESRI on the Monday. It was an interesting visit!

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The formation of NIMA initiated a trend for senior leadership to be
‘intelligence’ officers with few senior officers from the ‘engineering’
field. An event would occur that would entrench that trend.
Figure 9: A Change in World Order – 911 2001
Meanwhile, in Australia a number of organisational changes were
underway in Defence that resulted in the formation of the Defence
Imagery and Geospatial Organisation (DIGO) and in the ‘Intelligence’
program [not an intelligence agency]. DIGO was formed on 8
November 2000 and would become an intelligence agency on 2
December 2005.
The 2000s would be A Decade in Disarray with Disruptive Direction.
The initiatives prior to NIMA’s formation would be mostly ignored
and so the production of standard maps and charts, and digital
facsimiles of standard maps and charts, remains until today (see
following illustrations).
In addition, senior leadership [in Defense / Defence / Military
organisations] has limited representation from ‘engineer’ officers.
NGA maintains a website that provides information on ‘leaders’.
Leadership has a dominant ‘intelligence’ focus with very few with
formal qualifications in engineering, surveying/geodesy and

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cartography (science) qualifications – (Illustration follows
NIMA/NGA illustrations).
Figure 10: Digital facsimiles of traditional products – “swap hard copy atlases with
online versions”, NGA Director at U.S. Geospatial Intelligence Foundation GEOINT
Symposium 2011.
Figure 11: The NGA Mission – YouTube video 2013
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZz5HBALMqE

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Figure 12: Letitia A. Long (Director, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) In
conversation with Jack Dangermond, 2014 – “For industry, we need your help in
developing … Automated production of standard maps and charts for the Map of
the World”.
Figure 13: NGA Public Website to Support Nepal Earthquake Relief efforts, 2015 –
Standard topographic maps, annotated imagery with text descriptions and simple
GIS products.

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Figure 14: [Australia Defence] Geospatial Information Infrastructure – JP2064 – Joint
Project 2064 had its origins in 1997. In 2004 the project had (proposed) functionality
to assist emergency organisations. This was removed sometime between 2004 and
2012 (presumably) as a cost saving option.
Figure 15: “From data silos to integrated content: delivering richer and more
accessible GEOINT”, AGO (Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation) Ass. Sec,
GEOINT at Locate16, 2016 – “Multinational Geospatial Co-production Program
(MGCP), which currently involves 32 nations and is aimed at producing 1:100 000
scale maps of the entire world”

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Figure 15: Selection of Executive Level officers and formal qualifications
In summary, organisational changes in the later half of the 1990s
catalysed by decisions made immediately following the 911 incident
have resulted in a failure to evolve from a standard map and chart
paradigm to a geographic information infrastructure paradigm. This
situation spread through various nations and institutions.
The result, from my observation of command support to our 2019-
2020 fires, is that maps and facsimiles and simple representations
are the norm.
It’s time for change
Our ‘firies’ were underprepared for the extreme weather and
environmental conditions that occurred over vast areas and over a
long period of time. They struggled under very difficult circumstances
to improvise the response against an extreme challenge that they had
never encountered, and honestly never been trained to meet.
We must do better. We need to go ‘Back to the Future’! We need to
understand what “butterfly” effects have occurred and what needs to
be done to rectify the situation.

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Figure 16: It was the first week of the New Year 2020
Over the past 25 years or so, the tertiary education for mapmakers,
such cartographers, has been reduced to the level of generic "spatial
science".
We do not expect a physicist or chemist to build a bridge, even
though they could provide great detail about the forces acting on the
structure. Instead, we employ engineers. Likewise, we should not
expect zoologists, physicists, economists, political scientists, or
environmental scientists to manage cartographic organisations. That,
however, is what is happening now.
The point of this opinion piece is that we have a core capability that is
decades behind where it should be had not ill-informed advice
interrupted development.
We need to acknowledge that surveying and cartography are core
scientific disciplines fundamental to a capability that provides the
framework and information for the development of a nation; the
managements of its infrastructure and environment; and the safety
and well-being of its people. As such, specialist organisations with
appropriately qualified leadership are essential!
Over forty years ago Desmond O’Connor, Foundation Professor at
Murdoch University suggested that

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“Cartographers should be thinking of a broadly defined
concept for the operational use of modern sensors, the full
range of data processing equipment and methodology, and
large scale communication devices receiving input from
space, airborne and terrestrial platforms for the purpose of
carrying out surveys of the earth’s surface, monitoring the
environment, and classifying and compacting the information
in environmental data banks so that real-time or near real-
time information may be provided when and where it is
required”.
We need to embrace Desmond O’Connor’s vision of four decades ago
if we seriously wish to address the challenges of “Meeting the
Environmental Crisis” and “Safeguarding Australia”.