Syria peace process – the need for political transition

SYRIA PEACE PROCESS – THE NEED FOR POLITICAL TRANSITION
SYRIA PEACE PROCESS – THE NEED FOR POLITICAL TRANSITION
Rianne van Mierlo (1436457mierlo)
Zuyd University of Applied Sciences
2017-2018
Foreign Affairs and Security Policy [FASP]
European Studies
Word count: 1953

SYRIA PEACE PROCESS – THE NEED FOR POLITICAL TRANSITION FASP
Rianne van Mierlo 2017-2018 European Studies
Table of Contents
Abstract............................................................................................................................... 3
Terminology........................................................................................................................ 4
Historical background......................................................................................................... 5
Political Transition in EU perspective ................................................................................ 7
Internal and external divides............................................................................................... 9
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 12
Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 13
Tables ................................................................................................................................ 15
Images............................................................................................................................... 17

Abstract
Over 465.000 Syrian deaths, more than a million casualties, and over twelve million Syrians being
displaced from their homes, the Syrian Civil War has expended beyond its borders, causing a great
deal of victims. With the Syrian government acting as a highly authoritarian regime (Pariona,
2017), opposition parties and rebel groups unify, and strive for the downfall of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. Despite several attempts of third parties, such as the UN as a whole, the United
States, Russia, and several Western and Middle Eastern countries, the peace negotiations are still
in progress. High Representative Federica Mogherini recently highlighted the need for a
transitional government, just as Kofi Annan, the former UN special envoy for Syria, back in 2012.
This paper will shed light on the possibility of a transitioned regime in Syria, the obstacles with
regard to this matter, and the opinions of the involved actors in the conflict. It will give insight into
the central question:
“Is a transitional government realizable in Syria?”
Keywords: Syria Peace Talks, Bashar al-Assad, Higher Negotiations Committee (HNC),
United Nations, Syrian Civil War, Geneva Talks

Terminology
Arab League A regional organisation of Arab countries in and around North
Africa, the Horn of Africa and Arabia consisting of 22 members
Astana talks A series of peace talks in which multiple parties attempt to achieve
peace in Syria
Ba’athist An Arab nationalist ideology that promotes the development and
creation of a unified Arab state
Geneva talks Peace negotiations between the Syrian government and opposition
groups under the auspices of the United Nations
HNC High Negotiations Committee
Syrian Interim Government An alternative government of the Syrian opposition, indirectly
controlling some areas in Syria. The interim government claims to
be the only legitimate government on the behalf of the opposition
groups

Historical background
The Syria Peace Process, which from 2018 onwards will be a seven-years ensemble,
includes the plans and initiatives focussing on resolving the Syrian Civil War. In collaboration
with the United Nations Special Envoy on Syria, the Arab League, Russia, and multiple Western
powers, a variety of peace talks have been organised in the attempt for widespread peace
throughout the Middle Eastern region (Lund, 2016). As to bring an end to the civil war, two parties
in particular are highly involved, standing on opposite sides of the negotiation table – the
representatives of the Syrian Ba’athist government, represented by Bashar al-Assad, on the one
side, and the Syrian opposition on the other side. Albeit radical Salafist forces and Da’esh do not
participate in the ongoing negotiations, they continue to have a great influence during the conflict
(Lund, 2016).
As from 2011 onwards, a series of events have been organised in order to reach consensus
and finalise peace negotiations among the involved parties. The main sticking points during the
negotiations remain; (1) the fate of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and (2) the likelihood of a
renewed transitional government. A simplified, but generally accepted term of a ‘transitional
government’ defines a government that is temporarily designed to pave the way for a permanent
government (Meta, 2015). After the attempt of the Arab League to introduce peace plans in mid
2011, dozens of talks involving Russia, China, the UK, France, and multiple Middle Eastern
countries have followed. Russia, an ally of Assad’s regime, was particularly important in this
matter. The Geneva talks, as introduced in June 2012, continuously endeavours the strengthening
of an effective international supervision mechanism in Syria (Al Jazeera, 2017). After the
unification of the majority of Syrian opposition groups into the High Negotiations Committee

(HNC) in December 2015 at the Riyadh conference, peace talks have been simplified to a certain
extent. Nonetheless, termination of the peace negotiations seems far from finished.
During the Geneva I Conference on Syria, Kofi Annan, the former UN envoy to Syria, first
stated that Syria is in need for a ‘transitional governmental body’ (Al Jazeera, 2017). The problem
in this matter is that many argue that this will be highly unlikely as long as the Syrian regime
remains under control of Bashar al-Assad, who is often portrayed as a dictator by its opponents
(Kwarten, 2014). Adirect quote of Riyad Hijab, head of the HNC, insists that ‘a political transition
in Damascus would not be possible as long as the ‘criminal’ President Bashar al-Assad remains
in power’ (Black, The Guardian, 2016).
During a meeting on 22 October 2013, diplomats from the ‘London 11’ – a group of
Western and Middle Eastern nations who work together in order to reach settlement by ending the
Syrian civil war – called for a Transitional Governing Body. According to the group, this body
should include full executive powers, including over military, intelligence, and security structures.
But more importantly, President Bashar al-Assad should no longer play a role in Syrian
government (Berman, 2013). It goes without saying that these direct demands, which are favoured
by Syrian opposition groups, cause friction by the Syrian government, and those in favour of its
regime. The central question in this matter should, hence, be focussed on whether a political
transition can be realised, providing that al-Assad maintains his presidential function.

Political Transition in EU perspective
As mentioned earlier in the text, during the Geneva I Conference on Syria in 2012, the
involved parties mainly focussed on the process of strengthening an effective international
supervision mechanism in Syria. This 2012 Conference was also the event in which the term
‘transitional government’ in relation to Syria, was first introduced (Black, The Guardian, 2015).
Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy (HR FASP) repeats this request, by stating that ‘the EU wants a meaningful and inclusive
transition in Syria, open to Syrians from all backgrounds’(2017). This quote conveys the message
that the decision has to be in hands of the Syrian population, despite political preference or cultural
background. Nonetheless, it also indicates the EU’s standpoint of the need for establishing a
transitional government.
As published in the press release of the Council of the EU on 3 March 2017, the Council
has adopted its EU strategy on Syria (Council of the EU, 2017). This strategy follows up to the
EU’s Global Strategy Goals as set out for the upcoming years, in which protection of citizens, an
integrated approach to conflicts and crisis, and state and societal resilience, are leading factors.
With respect to the strategy on Syria, the Council of the EU explains how there can be no military
solution to the conflict. An end to war, therefore, is only possible through a genuine political
transition. The Union sheds light on the fact that it will continue providing political support in the
process, and fostering political dialogue with key actors in the conflict in order to find common
grounds. The European Union takes a rather subjective position, by emphasising the support it
offers to the Syrian opposition, particularly the HNC (Council of the EU, 2017). It has shown its
support in previous years as well. For instance by meeting with the Syrian Interim Government –

an alternative government of the Syrian opposition (Syrian Observer, 2016). These meetings have
previously included topics such as the support for projects in liberated area (KhamakarPress, 2017).
Next to this, the European Union also urges the regime of Syria to lay down its plans for
an inclusive political transition (Council of the EU, 2017). The majority of involved parties – e.g.
the EU, UN, USA, France, and Great Britain – have been supporting the idea of a transitional
government in Syria for an extensive period of time. Notwithstanding, almost entering the seventh-
year of peace negotiations, it raises the question why a transition government has not been
implemented into the Syrian regime yet.

Internal and external divides
In order to research into the question why a transitional government has not been
implemented yet, a simple observation has to be made – the point of view of Bashar al-Assad
versus Syrian opposition groups. On 10 December 2015, Syria’s regime rejects Britain’s proposal,
stating that al-Assad could lead the transitional government for a period of six months, before
stepping down as President. Syrian information minister, Omran al-Zoubi, reacts: ‘What gives the
British foreign secretary the right to decide for Syrians how long their president should stay in
power?’. Britain’s policies get described as ‘irrational’ and ‘illogical’, given the fact they, in
al-Assad’s opinion, attack the only country seriously fighting Isis (Black, The Guardian, 2015).
Whilst, on the other side of the negotiation table, Syrian opposition groups are demanding the
withdrawal of president Assad. The common ground of both parties up to now is that they both
agree on introducing a transitional government including members of the opposition, Assad’s
regime, and civil society (Memo, 2016). However, the opposition holds on to the claim that the
process of the transitional government will solely come into existence immediately after the
departure of Bashar al-Assad and his regime. The main obstacle causing the slow progress in the
peace negotiations is that the opposition has refused any American-Russian deals that deviates
from their plan (Memo, 2016).
Besides establishing a transitional government including members of all involved parties,
the opposition and Assad’s regime agree one overlapping point of view as well – the solution has
to be decided by a vote of the Syrian people (Keypour, 2016). Every since the start of the civil war,
millions of citizens fled the country. According to various academics, the Syrian people fled, not
because they could not stay, but because their minds were messed with an overload of ideas on
dictatorship, religion, and the uncertainty whether there even was presence of a successful

customised leader besides al-Assad (Keypour, 2016). Syria has been divided. Multiple different
groups controlling different parts of the country [see image 1], causing an unstable environment
for the citizens to think clearly, and reach conclusions.
President al-Assad explained during an interview with Wall Street Journal in 2011 that
‘Syria is stable’, given the reasoning behind this that his regime is very closely linked to the beliefs
of the Syrian people (Hu, 2016). During this same interview, al-Assad expresses his ideological
view on the future of Syria, by stating that changes need to be made, both political and
administrative, as well as as economical. He implies to be open for political dialogue with the
public, and supporting them in participating in politics. ‘Reform in politics is important’, he
declares. Regrettably, only several months later, approximately 7.000 Syrian civilians get detained
by Assad’s regime after dissenting the government – followed by a series of disappearances,
crammed jail cells and tortured minors (Hu, 2016).
Plans for a transitional government are thus withheld because of the complex situation
internally, and the divided opinions both internally and externally. Even opinions within the UN
are heavily divided. Russia, who backs up Assad’s regime opposes the EU’s point of view.
Moscow’s heavy investment in Syria accounts for the continuation of Assad’s power (Ahmed,
2017), and it is argued that without Putin’s support in favour of the EU, the Syrian civil war will
be unable to be resolved. Also, the US recently adopted a new strategy by letting know that getting
rid of Assad was no longer their priority (Rankin, 2017). The EU on the other hand wants to
continue focussing on its Global Strategy by strengthening the stabilisation process in Syria. For
this reason, the Union organised an international summit in Brussels mid 2017 to raise money for
Syrian refugees. Around seventy countries attended, both to raise money, and in an attempt to boost
momentum behind UN-led peace talks. Conversely, even this approach had to deal with opposed

opinions. Over eighty parliamentarians warned the EU against ‘jumpstarting a large-scale
reconstruction program’. Without having a consensus-based political settlement, the situation
could become an implicit endorsement of Assad’s control over Syria, and therefore betrayal of the
aspirations of big parts of the civil society of Syria (Rankin, 2017).

Conclusion
Considering the variety of involved actors, the divided opinions among these actors, the
complex cultural-political situation in Syria, and the dangerous conditions caused by the
government, the rebel groups, and the remaining terrorist organisations, reaching a stable and
transitional government in Syria is likely far for happening. However, this does not take away the
fact that aspirations for implementing such government exist among both the opposition groups,
as well as al-Assad’s regime.
In order to resolve the conflict in Syria, Da’esh forces need to be eliminated. As mentioned
earlier, Syria is not only divided in opinion, but also in controlling entities. Da’esh holds a big part
of this controlling territory. Only with the elimination of terrorist organisations will Syria has the
opportunity to put a step forward in the right direction (Ahmed, 2017). Besides overcoming this
obstacle, the need for Russia to alter the way it is influencing Syria at the moment is big. British
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond quoted: “There is one man on this planet who can end the civil
war in Syria by making a phone call, and that’s Mr Putin” (Ahmed, 2017). Given the fact that
Putin will not agree on a transitional government under the condition of president Assad stepping
down, the realisation of such is doubtful. The sticking points as described in the historical
background remain fundamental – Yes, a transitional government will be beneficial for Syria, and
is favoured by both the government and the opposition group. But as long as no agreement will be
reached on the fate of president Assad, Syria has a long way to go to re-establish the power and
safety for its country.

Bibliography
Ahmed, N. (2017, March 14). Syria 6 years on: What does the future hold? Retrieved from Memo -
Middle East Monitor: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170314-what-does-syrias-future-
hold/
Al Jazeera. (2017, September 15). Syria Diplomatic talks: A timeline. Retrieved from Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/syria-diplomatic-talks-timeline-170915083153934.html
Al-Jazeera. (2016, October). Syria: who controls what. Retrieved from Al-Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/syria-bashar-al-assad-power-160904081138141.html
Berman, L. (2013, October 22). Diplomats call for transitional government in Syria. Retrieved from
Times of Israel: https://www.timesofisrael.com/diplomats-call-for-transitional-government-in-
syria/
Black, I. (2015, September 10). The Guardian. Retrieved from Syria rejects British proposal for Assad to
lead transitional government: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/10/syria-rejects-
british-proposal-for-assad-to-lead-transitional-government
Black, I. (2016, April 19). The Guardian. Retrieved from Syria Peace talks founder after dispute over
transitional government: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/19/syria-peace-talks-
flounder-after-dispute-over-transitional-government
Council of the EU. (2017, April 3). Council adopts EU Strategy on Syria. Retrieved from European
Council, Council of the European Union: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-
releases/2017/04/03-fac-conclusions-syria/
Hu, Z. (2016, October 4). Why Bashar al-Assad is still in power. Retrieved from Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/09/syria-bashar-al-assad-power-160904081138141.html
Keypour, H. (2016, November 24). Why should Assad not step down as president? Retrieved from Quora:
https://www.quora.com/Why-should-Assad-not-step-down-as-president

KhamakarPress. (2017, February 11). Syrian interim government and EU experts discuss increased
support for projects in liberated areas. Retrieved from KhamakarPress:
http://khamakarpress.com/2017/02/11/syrian-interim-government-and-eu-experts-discuss-
increased-support-for-projects-in-liberated-areas/
VPRO (Director). (2014). De Dictator van 2013 [Motion Picture].
Lund, A. (2016, January 29). The Road to Geneva: the who, when, and how of Syria's peace talks.
Retrieved from Carnegie Middle East Center : http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/62631?lang=en
Memo. (2016, September 8). Syrian opposition: Assad should leave after transitional government is
formed. Retrieved from Memo - Middle East Monitor:
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20160908-syrian-opposition-assad-should-leave-after-
transitional-government-is-formed/
Meta. (2015, March 11). What does transitional government mean and where is it applied? Retrieved
from Meta.mk: http://meta.mk/en/shto-znachi-preodna-vlada-i-kade-ja-ima/
Pariona, A. (2017, April 25). What Type of Government Does Syria Have? Retrieved from World Atlas:
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/what-type-of-government-does-syria-have.html
Rankin, J. (2017, April 3). EU at odds with Trump administration over Assad's role in Syria. Retrieved
from The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/apr/03/eu-at-odds-
trump-administration-bashar-al-assad-role-syria-brussels-aid-conference
Syrian Observer. (2016, November 7). Who's who: Jawad Abu Hatab. Retrieved from The Syrian
Observer: http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Who/31916/Who_Who_Jawad_Abu_Hatab

Tables
Table 1
Timeline Syria Peace Talks – R. van Mierlo
Year Date Involved parties Main features
2011 November Arab League Arab League peace plans
2012 January Russia Informal talks proposal
February Russia ‘Three-point plan’
France Friends of Syria Group
March Joint Special Envoy for the
UN & Arab League
Kofi Annan Peace Plan – submitted a
six-point plan to the UN Security Council
June UN, US, Russia, China,
UK, France
Geneva I – agree on a road map for
peace [Geneva Communique]
August Non-aligned Movement 16th
Summit
September Lakhdar Brahimi Eid al-Adha - Ceasefire attempt
2013 January Bashar al-Assad Proposal – offers own peace plan
including national reconciliation
conference, new government and
constitution – Syrian opposition rejects
November Russia Brokerage Proposal
2014 January UN, US, Russia, China,
UK, France, remaining
Western & Middle-Eastern
countries
Geneva II – UN fails to break the
deadlock between opposition and
government
May UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura replaces Lakhdar
Brahimi as special envoy
2015 May Syrian opposition groups Astana Opposition
July UN Envoy Four Committees Initiative
September Hezbollah, Iran Zabadani Ceasefire Agreement – signed
by Hezbollah, mediated by Iran
representatives
November UN, Russia International Syria Support Group (ISSG)
– meets in Vienna, produce agreement on
the need to bring the Syrian government
and opposition to the negotiating table
October
(onwards)
USA, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, China,
UK, Italy, France,
Germany, etc.
Vienna Process
December Syrian opposition groups Riyadh Conference – opposition groups
allied themselves as ‘High Negotiations
Committee’

UNSC Adoption of resolution 2254 – basis for
negotiations and serves as a framework
for political transition
2016 January Geneva III – talks are suspended after
three days due to disagreements
February Syrian Women’s Advisory
Board
Advices the parties during negotiations
ISSG Cessation of Hostilities
September Russia, USA, Syrian
Assad Government, Syrian
opposition rebel groups
Ceasefire deal
September USA US-led coalition airstrikes on Syrian
army troops – end of ceasefire agreement
October USA, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, Qatar,
Iran
Lausanne talks
December Russia, Turkey, Iran Initiation of Astana talks
2017 January Syrian opposition groups,
Syrian government
1st
round Astana talks – indirect
negotiations
Feb-March Syrian opposition, Syrian
government, other parties
Geneva IV – debate regarding counter-
terrorism vs. political transition
March-May Iran, Russia, Turkey, other
parties
3rd
and 4th
Astana talks – opposition
refuses to talk
July 5th
Astana talks
September Russia, Turkey, Iran, other
parties
6th
Astana talks – de-escalation zone
Note: The data to which is referred to in the table is derived from multiple sources.
Under which Al Jazeera, BBC, Security Council Report, and Human Rights First. Sources can be
found in the bibliography.

Images
Image 1: (Al-Jazeera, 2016)

Image 2: (Al-Jazeera, 2016)

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