Egemen Bagis’ speech at the 14th Samena Capital Strategic Ownership Group Meeting, investment group focusing on the Subcontinent, Asia, Middle East and North Africa.

1. SAMENA CAPITALS - 14th Strategic Ownership Group Meeting – New Challenges, New Orders panelEgemen Bagis
DUBAI
09 / 10 APRIL 2016
SAMENA CAPITALS
14th Strategic Ownership Group Meeting
«New Challenges, New Order» panel
Egemen Bagis’ speech at the 14th Samena Capital Strategic Ownership Group Meeting, investment group focusing on the Subcontinent, Asia, Middle
East and North Africa. Main topics:
• Middle Eastern Challenges and Opportunities
• Terrorism and Terror Groups
• Syria and Refugee Issues
• Problems around Iran, Iraq Egypt, Libya
• Palestine and Israeli Conflict
• Turkey

2. SAMENA CAPITALS - 14th Strategic Ownership Group Meeting – New Challenges, New Orders panelEgemen Bagis
It's great to return and many thanks to the Samena team for bringing us together. The title of our panel is: The Middle East - New Challenges, New
Order.
The MIddle East has always been a land full of challenges and opportunities since Adam & Eve.
Currently there is much transition, a lot is happening, we all have fears of terror, instability, polarization and prospects of civil and even international
wars. As a former minister and now an independent strategic global consultant, I will share what I see is currently happening.
Nowadays, there is much focus on Iran. It has a young dynamic nation, a great market for products and services, a great source of raw materials. I have
always argued that the sanctions would not really work. Instead of imposing sanctions on Iran the West should have tried to introduce McDonalds and
Burger King chains in Tehran in order to integrate them. They are now coming to that.
As Churchill once said, "Americans always do the right thing after exploiting all the other options." We can see that in most Middle East issues today.
As for my native country, Turkey, we do have some differences with our neighbors in Tehran on some regional issues, mainly on the Syria question. We
have a border of 560 KM, and we have bilateral relations in a variety of fields, and history has taught us to respect each other.
The oldest border between any two countries in the World is the Turkish/Iranian border which has not changed an inch since 1683. We have been
balancing powers in a way. It is also not a secret that many countries complain about Iran interfering into their internal issues, which can also be the case
for many other countries as well.
The second country we should look at is Syria. The third round of talks in Geneva for a political solution are about to proceed. I personally think the
principal papers agreed by the parties should be focused on, and the regime has to be pressurized to negotiate the issue of political transition. Russians
have to deliver the regime.
We have to accept one fact about the Middle East. There is a new Middle Eastern country called Russia. They are in the Middle East and they have
worked so hard to get here, they will not leave and we have to learn how to live with them.
This whole announcement of withdrawal of arms does not really reflect the reality on the ground. Russian strategic military assets remain in place and
Russians will have to decide whether they will help the process or will they be a part of the problem by prolonging it.
As far as Syria is concerned, Shirish gave a great example of democracy about India, so many different languages, castes, cultures, but democracy can
function. Why shouldn't it function in Syria, or any other country?
Shirish told us in the morning democracy was not given much of a chance in the Middle East. There is now a new trend in Syria, whoever wakes up early
establishes a terrorist organization. We have to change this system to establishing political parties instead, and they should have elections, and the
people of Syria should decide who should run Syria and we all have to respect their decisions.
If that had been the case in Egypt, for example, instead of a military revolution, if Sisi had forced the government to an election, and if he was to run
against Morsi, hypothetically Sisi would win. That is why it is very difficult for us to, especially for us in Turkey, to digest that his own defense minister,
his own Chief of the military organized a coup against the elected president who appointed him. We all know Morsi had lost the popularity, the touch of
the people.

3. SAMENA CAPITALS - 14th Strategic Ownership Group Meeting – New Challenges, New Orders panelEgemen Bagis
In Syria, even if Assad wins, the International community would respect it, but the Syrians are not given the right to choose.
In Iraq, which is also a very difficult and problematic area, today we still see ethnic and sectarian discrimination against certain segments. Iraqi societies
are very divided. There is worsening humanitarian and economic situation due to DEASH atrocities.
We in Turkey are hosting more than 250,000 Iraqis, that have fled into Turkey. A lot of people focus on Syrian refugees and we have 2.7 million of them,
but the fact that 250,000 Iraqis have also come to Turkey is an important signal.
The political tension in Baghdad is running very high. The cabinet reshuffle occupies their whole domestic agenda and radical sectarian groups do not
want to lose their powers that they have achieved in the past. The functioning federal order based on fair power and revenue sharing is the only remedy
against DEASH.
We would not like to see Iraq divided, it's not in anyone's interest. No country in reason would want Iraq divided.
Various groups in Iraq have already established their own autonomies, their own economies, but the concept of revenue sharing and power sharing is
not there. As long as they have a problem achieving it they will continue to have problems.
Terrorism is a major challenge in the Middle East. As far as Turkey is concerned, we have been victims of PKK and DEASH, DHKP-C and other bloody
terrorist organizations.
Let me underline, there is no difference in the suicide bombings in Baghdad or Brussels, Lahore or Ankara, be it DEASH or PKK or DHKPC or Al Quaeda,
these are all entities that we have to fight against together. There is no country today that can fight terrorism on its own. The mighty United States was
hit at the Pentagon and twin towers. Their symbols of power were destroyed by two planes. International cooperation is a must and at a time when UN
cannot even convince its members to define terrorism, to come to a conclusion on how to deal with it, is a major issue.
PKK has taken more than 500 lives in Turkey since July. DEASH has taken almost another 200 lives, so we feel this tension in Turkey a lot.
As for the situation in Libya, I think the effective implementation of the political agreement signed in December 2015 is the only way for stability and
security in this country. Who could imagine that people of Libya would be missing the days of Qadaffi? The episodes of what's happening in Libya today
are the reasons for the lack of solution in Syria. Even in Iraq people are afraid of the day after, what's going to come next?
We have to focus on the main problems in the Middle East, the mother of all evil, the Palestinian/Israeli conflict.
There is a joke , the UN Secretary General decides to establish a football team where all countries are represented and then he asks them, "since we are
the UN team, who are we going to play against?"
His assistant says "Of course, Isreal".
They are always trying to keep themselves away from the International community and despite warnings coming from all around the world, the approach
to Palestine, to Gaza, to West Bank, has continued with this settlement policy, they are in a way, putting fuel under fire, and unless we have a concrete
solution to the Palestinian problem, we will have tensions in the whole region, because we know that this is the root of all the problems. The two state
solution is the only way for all of us, including Israeli citizens, to feel safe.

4. SAMENA CAPITALS - 14th Strategic Ownership Group Meeting – New Challenges, New Orders panelEgemen Bagis
There are a lot of instabilities as well as challenges in the Middle East.
I am really angry about this Sunni/Shiite division. I ask people, every chance I get, was Prophet Mohammed "(S.A.V.) Sunni or Shia? We have to get rid of
this division mentality.
Unfortunately today, people who are shouting "Allahu Akbar" are killing other people who are also shouting "Allahu Akbar" . There are many who enjoy
this as it takes place. We have to be smarter than that.
We all see how the oil prices can be fluctuated to serve the political interests of countries. We can all see how Terror can be supported through hidden
means to weaken countries.
Earlier today the I-Phone/FBI episode was mentioned, which I strongly think was one of the greatest advertisement and PR campaigns of the recent
times. Samsung and Huawei were getting the phone market dominancy and I-Phone pulled a real impressive number.
I'm not going to blame everything on the Americans, but there is another new joke that MacDonalds has a new Obama value meal. You order whatever
you want and the guy after you has to pay the price.
Last, but not least, let me tell you about Turkey.
Yes, we have problems in Turkey, yes we have issues in Turkey, but we have a stable one party Government which controls 65 percent of the Parliament,
and in the last 13 years Turkey has been a success story of democratic and economic reforms.
In the last 13 years, Turkey's per capita income has tripled, the number of schools and universities, elementary schools, high schools, all have been
tripled. Airports have been tripled, railroad length have been tripled, bridges, water damns, energy sector, energy production has also been tripled.
5 million new jobs were created in the last 5 years. 165 billion dollar worth of foreign direct investment has come to Turkey in the last 13 years. Turkish
entrepreneurs have invested more than 50 billion dollars globally in the same period.
According to IMF, Turkey will continue to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent per year, until at least the 2020, but my personal estimation is its going to exceed
on average 4 percent.
Our exports for 2015 were 144 billion, our imports were 207 billion. Construction sector is still booming. Turkish construction companies are the second
largest in terms of jobs delivered globally after China.
Turkish companies have completed 8,700 projects in 107 countries, worth over 325 billion US dollars. There has been no businessman who was regretful
in investing in Turkey.
As a citizen, a representative of the country, I invite all of you to come, invest in Turkey as well.