2014 Voter Motivation Landscape

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Campaigns can now move beyond conventional demographic voting blocs to discover the real issue positions and priorities that drive voter's actions.

Resonate leveraged its expansive primary survey data and analytics platform to identify 10 key voter segments based on the issue positions and values that motivate voters to support a candidate.

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2014 Voter Motivation Landscape

  1. 1. Presented by
  2. 2. election success. In 2014, campaigns will move beyond their limited view of voters based on age, gender, geography and history. Instead, they will employ deep understanding of the individual issue positions and priorities that drive voter behavior. To this end, Resonate has assembled the largest ever sample of voter motivations and defined the ten key voter segments that will determine the outcome on Election Day. In creating the 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape, Resonate segmented the voter base using 8,053 proprietary surveys. The methodology used was a k-means cluster analysis, a statistical process that clusters survey respondents into groups where they are similar to each other across multiple issue positions. Resonate used 51 different issue positions, spanning 12 categories of interest (such as income/wealth taxes, entitlement programs, traditional and alternative fuels, fiscal regulation, etc.) to create these voter segments. 2 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape The 2012 Political Cycle firmly established the use of big data and analytics as crucial to
  3. 3. Resonate began analysis project to rethink segmentation of the electorate ahead of 2014 cycle. Research from Q3 & Q4 2013 containing our comprehensive battery of political questions: 51 issue positions & engagement. The result was a substantially greater sample size: Resonate’s broader sample enables more granular segmentation and detailed analysis of demographic groups and ideological sub-segments. 3 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Pew 2011 Study “Political Topology” Resonate 2014 “Voter Motivation Landscape” Esquire & NBC 2013 Study of registered voters 2,410 3,029 8,053 Comparison in Sample Size
  4. 4. The 2014 Voter Motivation Segments 35% 36% 29% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE Voters clustered on positions and degree of engagement on key social and fiscal issues. Self-reported demographic, party ID, and voting behavior used to validate segment characterisctics Personas developed to illustrate each segment with key data points of issue differentiation 4 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape 1. Young Idealists 2. Suburban Progressives 3. Metro Establishment 4. Greener Futures 5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs 6. The Daily Grind 7. Fiscally-Driven Families 8. Made in America 9. Small Town Patriots 10. Crusading Conservatives 35% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 33% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 32% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS
  5. 5. The Left - 35% of Voting Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 1. Young Idealists | 9% of voters Youngest cluster, 70% female. Passionate about progressive social issues and believe the role of the government is to protect society’s most vulnerable. Consistent Democrat voter. 2. Suburban Progressives | 8% of voters Female-skewed, middle-class suburban and city dwellers. Staunchly pro-choice and focused on income inequality. Consistent Democrat voter. 3. Metro Establishment | 11% of voters City inhabitants with a significant minority population and male skew. Focus on gun control and traditionally-progressive social programs. More likely to donate politically than other liberal segments. 4. Greener Futures | 8% of voters Independent voters who are most motivated by environmental issues. Highest income segment, including a diverse population, such as Hispanics and recent immigrants. Nearly one in three are swing voters, but they lean Democrat. 5 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
  6. 6. 5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs | 9% of voters Economically-struggling segment that is also the most heavily minority segment. A democratic lean often wins out due to focus on issues around entitlement programs and poverty, but the segment leans fiscally conservative when asked to self-identify. 6. Daily Grind | 27% of voters A day-to-day, paycheck-to-paycheck segment where politics is outside of their daily purview. The segment responds to platforms, like crime prevention and lower taxes, but not to individual policies. Despite low turn-out, the high numbers mean that this segment may act as a bellwether. The Middle - 36% of Voting Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 6 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
  7. 7. 7. Fiscally-Driven Families | 7% of voters Most affluent segment, and also with the highest percentage of children in household. Fiscal conservatives but social moderates; identify as Republican but do not identify with the Tea Party movement. 8. Made In America | 6% of voters The oldest of the segments and least educated. Fiscal conservatives but inconsistently affiliate and vote Republican; many are swing voters. Do not identify strongly with the Tea Party movement. Concerned about illegal immigration and entitlement programs. 9. Small Town Patriots | 7% of voters Strong fiscal conservatives who oppose all tax increases and favor budget cuts. Very high turn-out; highly mobilized on gun rights but typically not other social issues. Significant support for the Tea Party movement. 10. Crusading Conservatives | 9% of voters Core social conservatives who are highly engaged on abortion and traditional marriage. Also fiscally conservative. Reliable turnout and Republican voters. More than half attend church at least once a week. Significant support for Tea Party movement. The Right - 29% of Voting Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 7 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
  8. 8. RECOMMENDATION: Plan media and messaging strategies against voters’ issue positions and voting motivations rather than demographic averages. Key Findings 8 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Cluster 8 (“Made in America”) has firmly conservative issue positions/values, yet 30% identify as Independents and 34% are swing voters – highest of any segment. Because this group turns out to vote so reliably, losing their support is even more damaging. Key demographics, such as Hispanics, have such a wide range of issue positions and voter cluster assignments (no more than 26% in a single segment) that messaging tailored to such groups cannot assume any ideological consistency. Women are 20-25% less likely to support Tea Party movement than men of the same conservative clusters (9 & 10). Significantly more likely to align with four most liberal clusters (40.5%) vs. four most conservative clusters (24.2%). Non-voting Bystanders make up 16% of the adult population - 29 million members. Vast majority would be eligible to vote, but only 18% are. Younger and poorer than average voter, 2x as likely to be Hispanic, with a slight liberal lean. Cluster 6 (“Daily Grind”) is home to 32% of swing voters. Motivated most by broad platforms (lower taxes, crime prevention) rather than specific issue positions. But getting their attention is challenging, and their turnout is inconsistent.
  9. 9. 384% 320% 68% 78% 41% Supporting Gay Rights Pro-Choice Level of Suppor Sup t Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000 involvement in Issues: Super Advocate 4% 61% 29% 2% 73% 5% 14% 83% 9% 88% 25% 12% 61% 19% 43% 5% 14% 81% 26% 59% 14% 15% 12% 6% 39% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 30% 70% POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS Young Idealists 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jen is in the youngest of the voter segments. Nearly half of her cohorts are Millenni- als, and more than two-thirds are women. She is passionate about progressive issues, like reproductive and gay rights, as well as income equality. For her, the role of government is to protect society’s most vulnerable (supports maintaining SNAP/WIC benefits), including protecting people from themselves (supports taxes on high fat/sugar products). While the vast majority consider themselves to be socially liberal, 39% of her peers do not identify as Democrats, although 73% consistently vote Democrat. Her idealism sometimes leads to disillusionment. So, while she’ll actively advocate for social change, her election turnout is among the lowest of any segment. She and her peers are disproportionately concentrated in New England, Mountain, and Pacific regions. LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 97% 54% 64% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICSUNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS Urban (% more likely than total voter base) 16% Satellite-City 20% Rural 37% Suburban 28% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ 9% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters AGE Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape9
  10. 10. POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS Suburban Progressives 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 8% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters 391% 46% 42% 30% 28% 17% Support Increasing Capital Gains Tax ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000 upport Maintaining Education Spending el of Involvement in Issues: Advocate Supp Sup S Lev Pro-Choice (% more likely than total voter base) 15% 56% 26% 3% 61% 14% 22% 75% 18% 91% 22% 15% 64% 38% 40% 20% 28% 52% 23% 66% 11% 20% 10% 18% 22% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern Julia is proud of the college education and the middle class lifestyle for which she’s worked so hard. She is staunchly pro-choice, as are her mostly-female counterparts, but not invested in environmental issues. Instead, Julia is concerned about issues of income equality, supporting increases to taxes for those she considers well-off and opposing cuts to SNAP/WIC and education. Several of Julia’s cohorts are moderately visible in social issues of importance to them. Julia is the least likely to have children under 18 of any liberal voter segment. Her family is more likely to include both military service members and union members. She almost always votes in presidential elections, but often misses the midterms. When she does turn out, she often votes Democrat. Julia and her peers live in more populous areas, ranging from suburban to urban. 38% 62% Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 90% 55% 58% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 19% Satellite-City 23% Rural 28% Suburban 30% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape10
  11. 11. 446% 42% 28% 41% 14% Metro Establishment 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 11% of voter base 12% of non-Presidential voters ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits pport Federal Policy for Natural Solar Energy ority Suppo Min port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000Suppo Su Support Gun Control UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape11 14% 58% 26% 4% 60% 12% 25% 75% 19% 93% 28% 9% 76% 28% 45% 21% 29% 50% 23% 61% 16% 20% 6% 17% 27% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 49% 51% POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS Reginald has lived in a city all his life and, through his experiences, he’s focused on gun violence as a leading societal problem. Reginald is also concerned about traditional liberal issues of equality, social programs, and alternative fuels. Reginald, and his peers in this oldest liberal voter segment, fairly and reliably affiliate with and vote Democrat, but a quarter report swing voting behavior. They have the highest turnout of any liberal voter segment in mid-terms. This segment has the second-highest minority composition, and 17% of its members are black. It also has an recent immigrant influence, being more likely to live in non-English speaking households. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 90% 57% 60% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 22% Satellite-City 18% Rural 29% Suburban 30% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE
  12. 12. 381% 90% 22% 39% 20% Support Exploring Alternative Energy Sup Value Environm Va ental Preservation lue Concern for the Future port Increasing Emissions Taxes UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Greener Futures 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 8% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape12 21% 38% 35% 5% 42% 22% 29% 59% 29% 90% 14% 9% 65% 42% 40% 29% 27% 44% 22% 60% 18% 19% 11% 8% 18% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 52% 48% POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS Janet is a well-educated, independent-minded voter who often supports Democrats, largely due to her focus on environmental issues. However, nearly a third of her cohort is swing voters. Her peers are nearly twice as likely to value environmental preservation or concern for the future over patriotism, and Janet’s top policy issue is the exploration of alternative energy. Janet and her cohorts are a diverse population, including Hispanics and recent immigrants in households with non-English speakers. She is in the highest income voter segment, though there is still influence from lower and middle income segments. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 93% 52% 54% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 15% Satellite-City 17% Rural 38% Suburban 30% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE pport Federal Policy for Solar EnergySu
  13. 13. 251% 27% Concerned About Entitlement Reform UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Post-Industrial Blue Dogs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 9% of voter base 9% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape13 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 19% 44% 29% 7% 43% 20% 30% 61% 28% 89% 17% 12% 69% 43% 38% 28% 30% 42% 30% 57% 13% 17% 8% 21%19% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 54% 46% Jack and 61% of his peers voted for Obama in 2012, but it wasn’t an easy choice – only 44% are self-identified Democrats and a plurality consider themselves to be fiscal conservatives. As such, Jack doesn’t always follow party lines on things like the environment, but, with a more liberal social view, his progressive lean often wins out. Jack isn’t a highly influential voter, but he is not afraid to get involved in issues that matter, like funding for food programs. Jack is in the least affluent of the voting segments, with 30% struggling economically, as demonstrated by his concerns about entitlement reform. It is also the most heavily black (and overall minority) segment. Jack and his cohort are disproportionately concentrated in the Atlantic and North Central regions, particu- larly in urban or satellite city locales. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 93% 52% 57% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 19% Satellite-City 24% Rural 34% Suburban 23% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC BenefitsSuppo
  14. 14. 25% 9% 23% UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) The Daily Grind 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 27% of voter base 24% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape14 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 26% 42% 27% 8% 38% 25% 30% 52% 35% 85% 10% 5% 60% 44% 41% 33% 35% 32% 27% 56% 16% 14% 8% 15%16% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 48% 52% Megan and her many peers are comparably younger and more likely to have kids at home. While slightly fewer than average have college degrees, they also have a slightly lower than average income. Further echoing their daily struggles, this segment is the least likely to have health insurance, although they are more likely to be employed. In the competition for their time, politics and policy are lower priorities, and they have no well-developed sense of societal values, such as patriotism or environmental preserva- tion. As part of the largest voter segment, capturing the support of Megan is challenging and difficult to predict, and lacking a strong allegiance to issues. Megan responds well to candidates with platforms of lower taxes, job creation, and crime prevention. However, she doesn’t espouse any specific plans for achievement of these ideals. A slim majority of this segment voted for Obama in 2012 and 2008, but they have the lowest turn-out of any segment. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 90% 43% 54% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 16% Satellite-City 20% Rural 37% Suburban 27% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE Uninsured Crime Prevention Lower Taxes
  15. 15. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Fiscally-Driven Families 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 7% of voter base 7% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape15 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 40% 30% 26% 13% 25% 42% 28% 54% 35% 91% 16% 7% 66% 55% 32% 42% 34% 24% 25% 56% 19% 15% 11% 7% 13% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 56% 44% Clayton and his peers are the most affluent of any voter segment, even though they are no more educated. He not only stretches his income, but suggests that the government do the same. Clayton considers himself to be fiscally conservative, especially opposing taxes on issues of personal choice, such as high sugar/fat foods and “gas guzzling” cars. A plurality of his cohort identify as socially conservative, although there are plenty of social moderates. All of them are concerned about illegal immigration and border control. Clayton affiliates Republican and often votes as such, but he and his peers don’t feel represented by the Tea Party. Of this segment, 28% are Catholics, and 56% have kids under 18, the highest of any segment. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 90% 48% 61% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 15% Satellite-City 20% Rural 37% Suburban 28% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE 219% 19% Concerned About Immigration & Border Control se taxes on High Sugar/Fat FoodsOppo
  16. 16. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Made in America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 6% of voter base 6% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape16 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 38% 25% 30% 18% 23% 40% 34% 32% 58% 90% 15% 6% 66% 59% 34% 40% 41% 19% 27% 55% 18% 14% 7% 6%7% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 48% 52% Joann and her peers are one of the oldest of the voting segments, and their positions and viewpoints reflect that. While they are more likely to live under the economic influence of larger metro areas, they prefer suburban and rural settings. Only 43% have college degrees, the least of any segment. Joann espouses traditional Republican values, such as fiscal conservatism, patriotism, and support for the military. Joann informs herself on issues that matter to her before voting, like concerns about illegal immigration and border control, and concerns about entitlement reform. Despite her core political values, Joann and her peers may not feel represented by the Republican party. Although 38% affiliate Republican, 3 out of 10 are Independent and many of Joann’s peers are swing voters whose votes have to be earned with each election. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 91% 49% 60% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 13% Satellite-City 21% Rural 37% Suburban 29% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE 251% 219% 46% 49% 44% Concerned About Entitlement Reform Concerned About Immigration & Border Value Pa Informe Suppor Control triotism d Voters t Maintaining Military Funding
  17. 17. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Small Town Patriots 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 7% of voter base 9% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape17 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 51% 5% 36% 46% 4% 71% 17% 7% 82% 96% 33% 12% 85% 84% 12% 55% 32% 14% 18% 63% 19% 10% 6% 3%3% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 65% 35% Rick is proud to be a fiscal conservative, opposing taxes and favoring deep program cuts. In addition to affiliating and voting Republican, 46% of Rick’s peers identify with the Tea Party. Half of them consider themselves to be socially conservative, with nearly all of them engaging on the banner issue of gun rights, though they are less concerned about other trademark social issues like reproductive and gay rights. Traditional energy is also a hallmark of Rick’s beliefs. In this segment, the value of patriotism outweighs that of environmental preservation by nearly four times. Rick and his cohort are the most reliable voters : 96% are likely to turn out at any given presidential election and 85% are likely to turn out in mid-term elections. This segment is the most male of any segment. They are over-represented in smaller metro areas in the South Central and Mountain regions, and prefer living in small towns and rural areas. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 81% 69% 56% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 11% Satellite-City 15% Rural 51% Suburban 22% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE 302% 173% 85% 49% 49% 32% Support Gun Ownership Rights Oppose Increasing Capital Gains Tax Patriotism rt Federal Policy for Clean Coal-Based Energy to Extend Unemployment BenefitsSupport Cuts Suppo port Federal Policy for Natural Gas-Based EnergySup Value
  18. 18. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base) Crusading Conservatives 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE 9% of voter base 10% of non-Presidential voters Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape18 POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS 65% 7% 22% 43% 5% 77% 14% 10% 84% 94% 22% 11% 76% 81% 15% 79% 15% 6% 21% 66% 13% 11% 4% 4%3% Republican Dem ocrat Independent Tea Party Fiscally Conservative Fiscally M oderate Fiscally Liberal Socially Conservative Socially M oderate Socially LiberalLow erIncom e M iddle ClassAffl uent H ispanic Black U nion O bam a 2012 Rom ney 2012 Likely N on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor PoliticalVolunteer Likely Pres.Turnout Republican Vote Pattern Dem ocratic Vote Pattern Sw ing Vote Pattern 59% 41% Don is on a mission. He is the staunchest of social conservatives and he and his peers make it known, advocating for issues that matter to them. They are the most religious of the segments, attending weekly or more frequent religious worship at two and a half times the population average, with 18% Evangelical membership. Don’s social conser- vatism is only rivaled by his fiscal conservative streak, opposing taxes and supporting program cuts. In addition to reliably affiliating with the Republican Party and being a Republican voter, Don and 43% of his cohort support the Tea Party. They show up to vote when it counts, with a likely presidential turnout of 94% and a 76% mid-term turnout. Don shies away from urban settings, enjoying his middle-class home in the smaller towns of the Midwest and the South. Use Social Media Consume Political News/Opinions Online Online 20+ Hours Per Week 88% 61% 55% MEDIA CONSUMPTION DEMOGRAPHICS Urban 6% Satellite-City 21% Rural 48% Suburban 25% GEOGRAPHY 18-34 35-54 55+ AGE 403% 387% 211% 158% 146% 78% 74% 62% Support Gun Ownership Rights Heavy Worshippers Oppose Increasing In Oppose In Support C Suppor come Tax for HHI > $250,000 creasing Capital Gains Tax uts to Arts/Historic/Cultural Programs t Cuts to SNAP/WIC Benefits Support Defense of Traditional Marriage Pro-Life
  19. 19. Swing Voters 19 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Swing voters make up 1/4 of the voting base. Even at the ideological poles, 14% of voters did not consistently vote for one party, although half of swing voters come from moderate voter segments. Swing voters do not all hold the same positions across issues, so understanding which segments they are in is key to developing strategies that will capture their votes. 30% The Daily Grind 6 28% 34% Fiscally- Driven Families Made In America 7 8 14%17% Small Town Patriots Crusading Conservatives 9 10 Young Idealists Suburban Progressives 14% 22% 1 2 Greener Futures Metro Establishment 25% 29% 3 4 30% Post- Industrial Blue Dogs 5 Percent of each segment who are swing voters There may be an assumption that the swing voter constituency equates to other sociodemographic constituencies, but most are no more or less likely to be swing voters. 21% 24% 26% 16% 25% Under30Fem aleHispanic Black Union Household Under30Fem aleHispanic Black Union Household 14% 8% 7% 15% 49% Percent of constituency who are swing voters Swing voters distributed by constituency 1 5% 7% 11% 11% 8% 8% 5% 5% 32% 9% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Swing voters distributed by segment
  20. 20. 20 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Not registered to vote or simply never turn out to vote 21% of Bystanders say they did not register because they just aren’t interested in politics. 12% are not eligible Bystanders Only 18% are Registered to Vote 79% more likely to be low income than voter base 40% more likely to identify as Democrat 35% more likely to support Petroleum development 24% more likely to be fiscally liberal 22% more likely to be socially moderate Nearly 2x more likely to be Hispanic 1.4x more likely not to speak English at home Poorer than Average Voters Moderate-to-Progressive Lean Much Younger than Average Voter Immigrants Resgistered Not Resgistered 18-34 35-44 45-54 Not Sure Middle Class Lower Income Affluent 18% 75% 44% 48% 8% 7% 56% 32% 12%
  21. 21. 21 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Hispanics Hispanic voters (12+ million) are Present in All Segments They differ significantly on few issues from the total voter base, and when they do, ideological fragmentation is evident. 64% more likely to support cuts to K12 education 28% more likely to vote for candidate running on a platform of improving education. More assimilated Hispanics are 21% more likely to oppose cuts to education than less assimilated Hispanics. Affluent Hispanics are more likely to support cuts to SNAP/WIC than lower income Hispanics (a similar pattern is seen in the total voter base, as well). 20% more likely to support SNAP/WIC cuts 12% more likely to be low income compared to voter base. 1 13.1% 2 9.9% 3 8.1% 4 10.9% 6 26.3% 8 5.1% 9 5.3% 10 4.4% 7 8.8% 5 8.1% These conflicts are the result of an increasingly complex group that doesn’t act as a voting bloc.
  22. 22. 22 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Women Fewer Women at the Tea Party Political Donations and Volunteerism at the Poles Significant Gender Gap in Segment Composition Women in segments 9 & 10 are significantly less likely to identify with the views of the Tea Party movement The women on the right are among the most likely to volunteer for political campaigns, but donations come from the left and right Women distribute across the spectrum, but a higher percentage are in left-leaning segments than right Male Female 51% 38% 47% 38% Crusading Conservatives Small Town Patriots 1 12.5% 40.5% 24.2% 2 9.6% 3 10.8% 4 7.6% 6 27.4% 8 6.3% 9 4.9% 10 7.1% 7 5.9% 5 7.9% “Small Town Patriots” (9) Top 3 Donors (Women) 38% 26% 22% “Metro Establishment” (3) “Young Idealists” (1) “Crusading Conservatives” (10) Top 3 Volunteers (Women) 11% 11% 11% “Small Town Patriots” (9) “Suburban Progressives” (2)
  23. 23. 23 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Millennials Likely Inconsistent Turnout Issue Position Differences Highlight Role of Government Slightly More Likely to be in Left-Leaning Segments Millennials are 16% less likely to turn out in Presidential elections and 35% less likely to turn out for mid-terms. Millennials are somewhat more likely to support “sin taxes” and maintaining spending on education and the arts. Millennials are 58% more likely to be Young Idealists and they are 25% less likely to be in right-leaning segments than average. Millennials All Other 79% 94% 49% 75% Non-PresidentialPresidential 1 14.2% 38.5% 21.9% 2 8% 3 7.3% 4 8.5% 6 31% 8 4% 9 4.7% 10 7.8% 7 5.4% 5 8.9% Tax on high sugar/fat foods More Likely to Support (as compared to total voter base) +24% +16% +24% Maintain K12 spending Maintain spending on arts/historic preservation
  24. 24. The Largest Research Platform 24 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape Sample 500 - 1,500 Sample 2,000 - 3,000 Annual Sample 25,000 - 30,000 Continuous Research + Online Behavior Typical Poll Political Research Syndicated Research Resonate 200,000+ Surveys Behavioral data for 90% of U.S. web users Cookies modeled to 150MM U.S. Population
  25. 25. Optimal Analytical Methodology 25 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape A k-means algorithm was applied through multiple iterations to find natural clusters in voter issue and motivation data.  The k-means algorithms partitions observations by distance from a mean that represents the prototype for the cluster.  Each input creates its own dimension with a mean and a distance, and the algorithm looks for the closest neighboring data points across inputs and tries to minimize intra-cluster distance (distance between data points within cluster) and maximize inter-cluster distance (distance between clusters).  In this case, each data point is a respondent (or a voter) and each input is an issue position. Clustering in this context is a semi-supervised algorithm because it also introduces a validation step.  While there is no true output to be predicted from the model, the analysts’ role is to ensure that the resulting segmentation scheme can be identified, analyzed, and labeled in a way that solves the original problem of data (or voter) classification. Three sets of inputs were tested; the set that produced the most meaningful segmentation included 51 issue positions covering energy policy, program cuts, tax increases, and social issue engagement. The first round of results yielded eight segments, including three groups of no discernible differentiation across affiliation or voting behavior. The three groups were combined and re-clustered with additional inputs to develop five clusters across the ideological spectrum, which were reincorporated into the main model. Final results identified ten ideologically and demographically distinct clusters ranging from 6.2% - 26.9% of the voter base, plus a segment of non-registered or non-voting “Bystanders”.
  26. 26. About Resonate Resonate has pioneered a new model for using “big data” to develop a sophisticated understanding of consumer motivations, values, attitudes and beliefs. Marketers need to understand “why” the audiences they target take action. Resonate answers that question, while making it simple to put that knowledge to work creating positive results for political campaigns and marketing initiatives. For more information, visit: www.resonateinsights.com Researchers: Lauren Kreisberg Research Director @resonatetweets /ResonateNetworks Resonate-Networks/resonateinsight resonateinsights.com/blog Michael Horn VP Research Dr. Yuan-Chyuan Sheu Data Scientist Dr. Zeehasham Rasheed Data Scientist Brent Waddington Data Analyst

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