Campaigns can now move beyond conventional demographic voting blocs to discover the real issue positions and priorities that drive voter's actions.
Resonate leveraged its expansive primary survey data and analytics platform to identify 10 key voter segments based on the issue positions and values that motivate voters to support a candidate.
2. election success. In 2014, campaigns will move beyond their limited view of voters based on age, gender, geography and
history. Instead, they will employ deep understanding of the individual issue positions and priorities that drive voter
behavior.
To this end, Resonate has assembled the largest ever sample of voter motivations and defined the ten key voter segments
that will determine the outcome on Election Day.
In creating the 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape, Resonate segmented the voter base using 8,053
proprietary surveys. The methodology used was a k-means cluster analysis, a statistical process that clusters survey
respondents into groups where they are similar to each other across multiple issue positions. Resonate used 51 different
issue positions, spanning 12 categories of interest (such as income/wealth taxes, entitlement programs, traditional and
alternative fuels, fiscal regulation, etc.) to create these voter segments.
2 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
The 2012 Political Cycle firmly established the use of big
data and analytics as crucial to
3. Resonate began analysis project to rethink segmentation of the electorate ahead of 2014 cycle. Research from Q3 & Q4
2013 containing our comprehensive battery of political questions: 51 issue positions & engagement. The result was a
substantially greater sample size:
Resonate’s broader sample enables more granular segmentation and
detailed analysis of demographic groups and ideological sub-segments.
3 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Pew 2011 Study
“Political Topology”
Resonate 2014
“Voter Motivation Landscape”
Esquire & NBC
2013 Study of
registered voters
2,410 3,029
8,053
Comparison in Sample Size
4. The 2014 Voter Motivation Segments
35% 36% 29%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
Voters clustered on positions and degree of engagement on key social
and fiscal issues.
Self-reported demographic, party ID, and voting behavior used to
validate segment characterisctics
Personas developed to illustrate each segment with key data points of
issue differentiation
4 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
1. Young Idealists
2. Suburban Progressives
3. Metro Establishment
4. Greener Futures
5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs
6. The Daily Grind
7. Fiscally-Driven Families
8. Made in America
9. Small Town Patriots
10. Crusading Conservatives
35% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 33% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS 32% NON-PRESIDENTIAL VOTERS
5. The Left - 35% of Voting Base
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
1. Young Idealists | 9% of voters
Youngest cluster, 70% female. Passionate about progressive social issues and believe the role of the government is to
protect society’s most vulnerable. Consistent Democrat voter.
2. Suburban Progressives | 8% of voters
Female-skewed, middle-class suburban and city dwellers. Staunchly pro-choice and focused on income inequality.
Consistent Democrat voter.
3. Metro Establishment | 11% of voters
City inhabitants with a significant minority population and male skew. Focus on gun control and traditionally-progressive
social programs. More likely to donate politically than other liberal segments.
4. Greener Futures | 8% of voters
Independent voters who are most motivated by environmental issues. Highest income segment, including a diverse
population, such as Hispanics and recent immigrants. Nearly one in three are swing voters, but they lean Democrat.
5 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
6. 5. Post-Industrial Blue Dogs | 9% of voters
Economically-struggling segment that is also the most heavily minority segment. A democratic lean often wins out due
to focus on issues around entitlement programs and poverty, but the segment leans fiscally conservative when asked to
self-identify.
6. Daily Grind | 27% of voters
A day-to-day, paycheck-to-paycheck segment where politics is outside of their daily purview. The segment responds to
platforms, like crime prevention and lower taxes, but not to individual policies. Despite low turn-out, the high numbers
mean that this segment may act as a bellwether.
The Middle - 36% of Voting Base
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
6 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
7. 7. Fiscally-Driven Families | 7% of voters
Most affluent segment, and also with the highest percentage of children in household. Fiscal conservatives but social
moderates; identify as Republican but do not identify with the Tea Party movement.
8. Made In America | 6% of voters
The oldest of the segments and least educated. Fiscal conservatives but inconsistently affiliate and vote Republican;
many are swing voters. Do not identify strongly with the Tea Party movement. Concerned about illegal immigration and
entitlement programs.
9. Small Town Patriots | 7% of voters
Strong fiscal conservatives who oppose all tax increases and favor budget cuts. Very high turn-out; highly mobilized on
gun rights but typically not other social issues. Significant support for the Tea Party movement.
10. Crusading Conservatives | 9% of voters
Core social conservatives who are highly engaged on abortion and traditional marriage. Also fiscally conservative.
Reliable turnout and Republican voters. More than half attend church at least once a week. Significant support for Tea
Party movement.
The Right - 29% of Voting Base
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
7 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
8. RECOMMENDATION: Plan media and messaging strategies against voters’
issue positions and voting motivations rather than demographic averages.
Key Findings
8 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Cluster 8 (“Made in America”) has firmly conservative issue positions/values, yet 30% identify as Independents and 34%
are swing voters – highest of any segment. Because this group turns out to vote so reliably, losing their support is even
more damaging.
Key demographics, such as Hispanics, have such a wide range of issue positions and voter cluster assignments (no more
than 26% in a single segment) that messaging tailored to such groups cannot assume any ideological consistency.
Women are 20-25% less likely to support Tea Party movement than men of the same conservative clusters (9 & 10).
Significantly more likely to align with four most liberal clusters (40.5%) vs. four most conservative clusters (24.2%).
Non-voting Bystanders make up 16% of the adult population - 29 million members. Vast majority would be eligible to
vote, but only 18% are. Younger and poorer than average voter, 2x as likely to be Hispanic, with a slight liberal lean.
Cluster 6 (“Daily Grind”) is home to 32% of swing voters. Motivated most by broad platforms (lower taxes, crime
prevention) rather than specific issue positions. But getting their attention is challenging, and their turnout is inconsistent.
9. 384%
320%
68%
78%
41%
Supporting Gay Rights
Pro-Choice
Level of
Suppor
Sup
t Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits
port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000
involvement in Issues: Super Advocate
4%
61%
29%
2%
73%
5%
14%
83%
9%
88%
25%
12%
61%
19%
43%
5%
14%
81%
26%
59%
14% 15%
12%
6%
39%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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LiberalLow
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30% 70%
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
Young Idealists
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Jen is in the youngest of the voter segments. Nearly half of her cohorts are Millenni-
als, and more than two-thirds are women. She is passionate about progressive
issues, like reproductive and gay rights, as well as income equality. For her, the role
of government is to protect society’s most vulnerable (supports maintaining
SNAP/WIC benefits), including protecting people from themselves (supports taxes on
high fat/sugar products).
While the vast majority consider themselves to be socially liberal, 39% of her peers
do not identify as Democrats, although 73% consistently vote Democrat. Her
idealism sometimes leads to disillusionment. So, while she’ll actively advocate for
social change, her election turnout is among the lowest of any segment. She and her
peers are disproportionately concentrated in New England, Mountain, and Pacific
regions.
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
97% 54% 64%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICSUNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS
Urban
(% more likely than total voter base)
16%
Satellite-City
20%
Rural
37%
Suburban
28%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
9% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters
AGE
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape9
10. POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS
Suburban Progressives
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
8% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters
391%
46%
42%
30%
28%
17%
Support Increasing Capital Gains Tax
ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits
port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000
upport Maintaining Education Spending
el of Involvement in Issues: Advocate
Supp
Sup
S
Lev
Pro-Choice
(% more likely than total voter base)
15%
56%
26%
3%
61%
14%
22%
75%
18%
91%
22%
15%
64%
38%
40%
20%
28%
52%
23%
66%
11%
20%
10%
18%
22%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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Socially
LiberalLow
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Julia is proud of the college education and the middle class lifestyle for which she’s
worked so hard. She is staunchly pro-choice, as are her mostly-female counterparts, but
not invested in environmental issues. Instead, Julia is concerned about issues of income
equality, supporting increases to taxes for those she considers well-off and opposing
cuts to SNAP/WIC and education. Several of Julia’s cohorts are moderately visible in
social issues of importance to them.
Julia is the least likely to have children under 18 of any liberal voter segment. Her family
is more likely to include both military service members and union members. She almost
always votes in presidential elections, but often misses the midterms. When she does
turn out, she often votes Democrat. Julia and her peers live in more populous areas,
ranging from suburban to urban.
38% 62%
Use Social
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Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
90% 55% 58%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
19%
Satellite-City
23%
Rural
28%
Suburban
30%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape10
11. 446%
42%
28%
41%
14%
Metro Establishment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
11% of voter base 12% of non-Presidential voters
ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC Benefits
pport Federal Policy for Natural Solar Energy
ority
Suppo
Min
port Increasing Income Tax for HHI > $250,000Suppo
Su
Support Gun Control
UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape11
14%
58%
26%
4%
60%
12%
25%
75%
19%
93%
28%
9%
76%
28%
45%
21%
29%
50%
23%
61%
16%
20%
6%
17%
27%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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Socially
LiberalLow
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49% 51%
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
Reginald has lived in a city all his life and, through his experiences, he’s focused on
gun violence as a leading societal problem. Reginald is also concerned about
traditional liberal issues of equality, social programs, and alternative fuels.
Reginald, and his peers in this oldest liberal voter segment, fairly and reliably
affiliate with and vote Democrat, but a quarter report swing voting behavior. They
have the highest turnout of any liberal voter segment in mid-terms. This segment
has the second-highest minority composition, and 17% of its members are black. It
also has an recent immigrant influence, being more likely to live in non-English
speaking households.
Use Social
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Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
90% 57% 60%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
22%
Satellite-City
18%
Rural
29%
Suburban
30%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+ AGE
12. 381%
90%
22%
39%
20%
Support Exploring Alternative Energy
Sup
Value Environm
Va
ental Preservation
lue Concern for the Future
port Increasing Emissions Taxes
UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Greener Futures
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
8% of voter base 8% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape12
21%
38%
35%
5%
42%
22%
29%
59%
29%
90%
14%
9%
65%
42% 40%
29% 27%
44%
22%
60%
18% 19%
11% 8%
18%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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52% 48%
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
Janet is a well-educated, independent-minded voter who often supports Democrats,
largely due to her focus on environmental issues. However, nearly a third of her
cohort is swing voters. Her peers are nearly twice as likely to value environmental
preservation or concern for the future over patriotism, and Janet’s top policy issue is
the exploration of alternative energy.
Janet and her cohorts are a diverse population, including Hispanics and recent
immigrants in households with non-English speakers. She is in the highest income
voter segment, though there is still influence from lower and middle income
segments.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
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Per Week
93% 52% 54%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
15%
Satellite-City
17%
Rural
38%
Suburban
30%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
pport Federal Policy for Solar EnergySu
13. 251%
27%
Concerned About Entitlement Reform
UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Post-Industrial Blue Dogs
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
9% of voter base 9% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape13
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
19%
44%
29%
7%
43%
20%
30%
61%
28%
89%
17%
12%
69%
43%
38%
28% 30%
42%
30%
57%
13%
17%
8%
21%19%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
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Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
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54% 46%
Jack and 61% of his peers voted for Obama in 2012, but it wasn’t an easy choice –
only 44% are self-identified Democrats and a plurality consider themselves to be
fiscal conservatives. As such, Jack doesn’t always follow party lines on things like the
environment, but, with a more liberal social view, his progressive lean often wins
out. Jack isn’t a highly influential voter, but he is not afraid to get involved in issues
that matter, like funding for food programs.
Jack is in the least affluent of the voting segments, with 30% struggling
economically, as demonstrated by his concerns about entitlement reform. It is also
the most heavily black (and overall minority) segment. Jack and his cohort are
disproportionately concentrated in the Atlantic and North Central regions, particu-
larly in urban or satellite city locales.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
93% 52% 57%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
19%
Satellite-City
24%
Rural
34%
Suburban
23%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
ort Maintaining SNAP/WIC BenefitsSuppo
14. 25%
9%
23%
UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
The Daily Grind
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
27% of voter base 24% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape14
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
26%
42%
27%
8%
38%
25%
30%
52%
35%
85%
10%
5%
60%
44%
41%
33% 35%
32%
27%
56%
16% 14%
8%
15%16%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
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48% 52%
Megan and her many peers are comparably younger and more likely to have kids at
home. While slightly fewer than average have college degrees, they also have a slightly
lower than average income. Further echoing their daily struggles, this segment is the
least likely to have health insurance, although they are more likely to be employed. In
the competition for their time, politics and policy are lower priorities, and they have no
well-developed sense of societal values, such as patriotism or environmental preserva-
tion.
As part of the largest voter segment, capturing the support of Megan is challenging and
difficult to predict, and lacking a strong allegiance to issues. Megan responds well to
candidates with platforms of lower taxes, job creation, and crime prevention. However,
she doesn’t espouse any specific plans for achievement of these ideals. A slim majority
of this segment voted for Obama in 2012 and 2008, but they have the lowest turn-out
of any segment.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
90% 43% 54%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
16%
Satellite-City
20%
Rural
37%
Suburban
27%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
Uninsured
Crime Prevention
Lower Taxes
15. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Fiscally-Driven Families
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
7% of voter base 7% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape15
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
40%
30%
26%
13%
25%
42%
28%
54%
35%
91%
16%
7%
66%
55%
32%
42%
34%
24% 25%
56%
19%
15%
11%
7%
13%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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56% 44%
Clayton and his peers are the most affluent of any voter segment, even though they
are no more educated. He not only stretches his income, but suggests that the
government do the same. Clayton considers himself to be fiscally conservative,
especially opposing taxes on issues of personal choice, such as high sugar/fat foods
and “gas guzzling” cars. A plurality of his cohort identify as socially conservative,
although there are plenty of social moderates. All of them are concerned about illegal
immigration and border control.
Clayton affiliates Republican and often votes as such, but he and his peers don’t feel
represented by the Tea Party. Of this segment, 28% are Catholics, and 56% have kids
under 18, the highest of any segment.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
90% 48% 61%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
15%
Satellite-City
20%
Rural
37%
Suburban
28%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
219%
19%
Concerned About Immigration & Border Control
se taxes on High Sugar/Fat FoodsOppo
16. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Made in America
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
6% of voter base 6% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape16
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
38%
25%
30%
18%
23%
40%
34% 32%
58%
90%
15%
6%
66%
59%
34%
40% 41%
19%
27%
55%
18%
14%
7% 6%7%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
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LiberalLow
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48% 52%
Joann and her peers are one of the oldest of the voting segments, and their positions
and viewpoints reflect that. While they are more likely to live under the economic
influence of larger metro areas, they prefer suburban and rural settings. Only 43% have
college degrees, the least of any segment.
Joann espouses traditional Republican values, such as fiscal conservatism, patriotism,
and support for the military. Joann informs herself on issues that matter to her before
voting, like concerns about illegal immigration and border control, and concerns about
entitlement reform. Despite her core political values, Joann and her peers may not feel
represented by the Republican party. Although 38% affiliate Republican, 3 out of 10 are
Independent and many of Joann’s peers are swing voters whose votes have to be earned
with each election.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
91% 49% 60%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
13%
Satellite-City
21%
Rural
37%
Suburban
29%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
251%
219%
46%
49%
44%
Concerned About Entitlement Reform
Concerned About Immigration & Border
Value Pa
Informe
Suppor
Control
triotism
d Voters
t Maintaining Military Funding
17. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Small Town Patriots
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
7% of voter base 9% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape17
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
51%
5%
36%
46%
4%
71%
17%
7%
82%
96%
33%
12%
85% 84%
12%
55%
32%
14%
18%
63%
19%
10%
6%
3%3%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
oderate
Socially
LiberalLow
erIncom
e
M
iddle
ClassAffl
uent
H
ispanic
Black
U
nion
O
bam
a
2012
Rom
ney
2012
Likely
N
on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor
PoliticalVolunteer
Likely
Pres.Turnout
Republican
Vote
Pattern
Dem
ocratic
Vote
Pattern
Sw
ing
Vote
Pattern
65% 35%
Rick is proud to be a fiscal conservative, opposing taxes and favoring deep program
cuts. In addition to affiliating and voting Republican, 46% of Rick’s peers identify
with the Tea Party. Half of them consider themselves to be socially conservative,
with nearly all of them engaging on the banner issue of gun rights, though they are
less concerned about other trademark social issues like reproductive and gay
rights. Traditional energy is also a hallmark of Rick’s beliefs. In this segment, the
value of patriotism outweighs that of environmental preservation by nearly four
times.
Rick and his cohort are the most reliable voters : 96% are likely to turn out at any
given presidential election and 85% are likely to turn out in mid-term elections. This
segment is the most male of any segment. They are over-represented in smaller
metro areas in the South Central and Mountain regions, and prefer living in small
towns and rural areas.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
81% 69% 56%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
11%
Satellite-City
15%
Rural
51%
Suburban
22%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+ AGE
302%
173%
85%
49%
49%
32%
Support Gun Ownership Rights
Oppose Increasing Capital Gains Tax
Patriotism
rt Federal Policy for Clean Coal-Based Energy
to Extend Unemployment BenefitsSupport Cuts
Suppo
port Federal Policy for Natural Gas-Based EnergySup
Value
18. UNIQUE PSYCHOGRAPHICS (% more likely than total voter base)
Crusading Conservatives
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
LIBERAL MODERATE CONSERVATIVE
9% of voter base 10% of non-Presidential voters
Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape18
POLITICAL BEHAVIOR & SOCIOECONOMICS
65%
7%
22%
43%
5%
77%
14%
10%
84%
94%
22%
11%
76%
81%
15%
79%
15%
6%
21%
66%
13% 11%
4% 4%3%
Republican
Dem
ocrat
Independent
Tea
Party
Fiscally
Conservative
Fiscally
M
oderate
Fiscally
Liberal
Socially
Conservative
Socially
M
oderate
Socially
LiberalLow
erIncom
e
M
iddle
ClassAffl
uent
H
ispanic
Black
U
nion
O
bam
a
2012
Rom
ney
2012
Likely
N
on-Pres.TurnoutPoliticalDonor
PoliticalVolunteer
Likely
Pres.Turnout
Republican
Vote
Pattern
Dem
ocratic
Vote
Pattern
Sw
ing
Vote
Pattern
59% 41%
Don is on a mission. He is the staunchest of social conservatives and he and his peers
make it known, advocating for issues that matter to them. They are the most religious
of the segments, attending weekly or more frequent religious worship at two and a half
times the population average, with 18% Evangelical membership. Don’s social conser-
vatism is only rivaled by his fiscal conservative streak, opposing taxes and supporting
program cuts.
In addition to reliably affiliating with the Republican Party and being a Republican voter,
Don and 43% of his cohort support the Tea Party. They show up to vote when it
counts, with a likely presidential turnout of 94% and a 76% mid-term turnout. Don
shies away from urban settings, enjoying his middle-class home in the smaller towns of
the Midwest and the South.
Use Social
Media
Consume Political
News/Opinions
Online
Online 20+ Hours
Per Week
88% 61% 55%
MEDIA CONSUMPTION
DEMOGRAPHICS
Urban
6%
Satellite-City
21%
Rural
48%
Suburban
25%
GEOGRAPHY
18-34
35-54
55+
AGE
403%
387%
211%
158%
146%
78%
74%
62%
Support Gun Ownership Rights
Heavy Worshippers
Oppose Increasing In
Oppose In
Support C
Suppor
come Tax for HHI > $250,000
creasing Capital Gains Tax
uts to Arts/Historic/Cultural Programs
t Cuts to SNAP/WIC Benefits
Support Defense of Traditional Marriage
Pro-Life
19. Swing Voters
19 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Swing voters make up 1/4 of the voting base. Even at the ideological poles, 14% of voters did not consistently vote for one
party, although half of swing voters come from moderate voter segments. Swing voters do not all hold the same positions
across issues, so understanding which segments they are in is key to developing strategies that will capture their votes.
30%
The Daily
Grind
6
28% 34%
Fiscally-
Driven
Families
Made In
America
7 8
14%17%
Small Town
Patriots
Crusading
Conservatives
9 10
Young
Idealists
Suburban
Progressives
14% 22%
1 2
Greener
Futures
Metro
Establishment
25% 29%
3 4
30%
Post-
Industrial
Blue Dogs
5
Percent of each segment who are
swing voters
There may be an assumption that the swing voter
constituency equates to other sociodemographic
constituencies, but most are no more or less likely to be
swing voters.
21%
24%
26%
16%
25%
Under30Fem
aleHispanic
Black
Union
Household
Under30Fem
aleHispanic
Black
Union
Household
14%
8% 7%
15%
49%
Percent of constituency
who are swing voters
Swing voters distributed
by constituency
1
5%
7%
11%
11%
8%
8%
5% 5%
32%
9%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Swing voters distributed by segment
20. 20 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Not registered to vote or simply never turn out to vote
21% of Bystanders say they did not register
because they just aren’t interested in
politics. 12% are not eligible
Bystanders
Only 18% are Registered to Vote
79% more likely to be low income
than voter base
40% more likely to identify as Democrat
35% more likely to support Petroleum development
24% more likely to be fiscally liberal
22% more likely to be socially moderate
Nearly 2x more likely to be
Hispanic
1.4x more likely not to
speak English at home
Poorer than Average Voters
Moderate-to-Progressive
Lean
Much Younger than
Average Voter
Immigrants
Resgistered
Not Resgistered
18-34 35-44 45-54
Not Sure
Middle Class
Lower Income
Affluent
18%
75%
44%
48%
8%
7%
56%
32%
12%
21. 21 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Hispanics
Hispanic voters (12+ million) are Present in All Segments
They differ significantly on few issues from the total voter base, and when they do,
ideological fragmentation is evident.
64% more likely to support cuts to K12 education
28% more likely to vote for candidate running on a
platform of improving education.
More assimilated Hispanics are 21% more likely to oppose
cuts to education than less assimilated Hispanics.
Affluent Hispanics are more likely to support cuts to
SNAP/WIC than lower income Hispanics (a similar pattern is
seen in the total voter base, as well).
20% more likely to support SNAP/WIC cuts
12% more likely to be low income compared to voter base.
1
13.1%
2
9.9%
3
8.1%
4
10.9%
6
26.3%
8
5.1%
9
5.3%
10
4.4%
7
8.8%
5
8.1%
These conflicts are the result of an increasingly complex group that
doesn’t act as a voting bloc.
22. 22 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Women
Fewer Women at the Tea Party Political Donations and Volunteerism
at the Poles
Significant Gender Gap in Segment Composition
Women in segments 9 & 10 are significantly less
likely to identify with the views of the Tea Party
movement
The women on the right are among the most likely to volunteer
for political campaigns, but donations come from the left and
right
Women distribute across the spectrum, but a higher percentage are in left-leaning segments than right
Male Female
51%
38%
47%
38%
Crusading
Conservatives
Small Town
Patriots
1
12.5%
40.5% 24.2%
2
9.6%
3
10.8%
4
7.6%
6
27.4%
8
6.3%
9
4.9%
10
7.1%
7
5.9%
5
7.9%
“Small Town Patriots” (9)
Top 3 Donors (Women)
38%
26%
22%
“Metro Establishment” (3)
“Young Idealists” (1)
“Crusading Conservatives” (10)
Top 3 Volunteers (Women)
11%
11%
11%
“Small Town Patriots” (9)
“Suburban Progressives” (2)
23. 23 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Millennials
Likely Inconsistent Turnout Issue Position Differences Highlight
Role of Government
Slightly More Likely to be in Left-Leaning Segments
Millennials are 16% less likely to turn out in
Presidential elections and 35% less likely to
turn out for mid-terms.
Millennials are somewhat more likely to support “sin taxes” and
maintaining spending on education and the arts.
Millennials are 58% more likely to be Young Idealists and they are 25% less likely to be in right-leaning
segments than average.
Millennials All Other
79%
94%
49%
75%
Non-PresidentialPresidential
1
14.2%
38.5% 21.9%
2
8%
3
7.3%
4
8.5%
6
31%
8
4%
9
4.7%
10
7.8%
7
5.4%
5
8.9%
Tax on high sugar/fat foods
More Likely to Support (as compared to total voter base)
+24%
+16%
+24%
Maintain K12 spending
Maintain spending on arts/historic preservation
24. The Largest Research Platform
24 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
Sample
500 - 1,500
Sample
2,000 - 3,000
Annual Sample
25,000 - 30,000
Continuous Research
+ Online Behavior
Typical Poll
Political Research
Syndicated Research
Resonate
200,000+ Surveys
Behavioral data for
90% of U.S. web users
Cookies modeled to
150MM
U.S. Population
25. Optimal Analytical Methodology
25 Resonate: 2014 Voter Motivation Landscape
A k-means algorithm was applied through multiple iterations to find natural clusters in
voter issue and motivation data.
The k-means algorithms partitions observations by distance from a mean that represents the prototype for the cluster.
Each input creates its own dimension with a mean and a distance, and the algorithm looks for the closest neighboring
data points across inputs and tries to minimize intra-cluster distance (distance between data points within cluster) and
maximize inter-cluster distance (distance between clusters). In this case, each data point is a respondent (or a voter) and
each input is an issue position.
Clustering in this context is a semi-supervised algorithm because it also introduces a validation step. While there is no
true output to be predicted from the model, the analysts’ role is to ensure that the resulting segmentation scheme can be
identified, analyzed, and labeled in a way that solves the original problem of data (or voter) classification.
Three sets of inputs were tested; the set that produced the most meaningful segmentation included 51 issue positions
covering energy policy, program cuts, tax increases, and social issue engagement. The first round of results yielded eight
segments, including three groups of no discernible differentiation across affiliation or voting behavior. The three groups
were combined and re-clustered with additional inputs to develop five clusters across the ideological spectrum, which
were reincorporated into the main model.
Final results identified ten ideologically and demographically distinct clusters ranging
from 6.2% - 26.9% of the voter base, plus a segment of non-registered or non-voting
“Bystanders”.
26. About Resonate
Resonate has pioneered a new model for using “big data” to develop a sophisticated understanding of
consumer motivations, values, attitudes and beliefs. Marketers need to understand “why” the audiences they
target take action. Resonate answers that question, while making it simple to put that knowledge to work
creating positive results for political campaigns and marketing initiatives.
For more information, visit: www.resonateinsights.com
Researchers:
Lauren Kreisberg
Research Director
@resonatetweets /ResonateNetworks Resonate-Networks/resonateinsight resonateinsights.com/blog
Michael Horn
VP Research
Dr. Yuan-Chyuan Sheu
Data Scientist
Dr. Zeehasham Rasheed
Data Scientist
Brent Waddington
Data Analyst