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Trends Shaping Education 2016

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Trends Shaping Education 2016 provides an overview of key economic, social, demographic and technological trends and raises pertinent questions about their potential impact on education. This compilation makes use of a variety of robust international sources of data, including the OECD, the World Bank and the United Nations.

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Trends Shaping Education 2016

  1. 1. TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2016
  2. 2. Trends Shaping Education • Intention and purpose – Inform strategic thinking – Stimulate reflection about the future of education ─ NOT a statistical compendium nor a prescription for policy 2
  3. 3. Trends Shaping Education 2016 • Five thematic chapters – Globalisation – The future of the nation state – Are cities the new countries? – Family matters – A brave new world • To be included, data needs to be: – Robust – Internationally comparable – Long term trend 3
  4. 4. Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Low income Middle income World OECD members Gap between richer and poorer regions widens GDP per capita by national income level and OECD member countries, and world, 1960-2013 Globalisation
  5. 5. 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Middle income Low income World OECD members Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (World Bank data) Increasing immigration across the OECD Immigrants as a share of national population, 1960-2010 Globalisation
  6. 6. Migration Global integration Trade patterns Environment Harmonisation of values Affluence and inequality Democracy and dual nationalities G L O B A L I S A T I O N
  7. 7. Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data) 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Men effective retirement age Women effective retirement age Pension men Pension women Life expectancy from 65 males Life expectancy from 65 females YearsOld Longer life, longer retirement Longevity, effective retirement age, and legal age at which one can become a pensioner, OECD country average, 1970-2012 Nation state
  8. 8. Nation state Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data) 8 Changing causes of death The top causes of death (left axis) and the fastest growing causes of death (right axis) in OECD countries, 1960-2012 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Topnewper100,000 Top4per100,000 Circulatory Cancer Respiratory External Diabetes Dementia Alzheimer'sRight axis : Left axis:
  9. 9. 9 Taxes Dementia National Identities Counter terrorism The knowledge economy Greater role of women National Security Entrepreneurs Government Spending Health Pension System Ageing Patents Obesity Labour Market THE NATION STATE
  10. 10. Cities Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data) 10 Productivity: from the City of Love to the Big Apple Percent of national GDP growth contributed by the metropolitan areas 2000-10. Bratislava Amsterdam Madrid Warsaw Helsinki Ljubljana Lisbon Prague Stockholm Vienna Toronto New York Brussels Dublin Santiago Copenhagen Mexico City Tallinn Seoul Incheon Budapest Paris Tokyo Athens 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Slovak Republic (1) Netherlands (5) Spain (8) Poland (8) Finland (1) Slovenia (1) Portugal (2) Czech Republic (3) Sweden (3) OECD23 (221) Austria (3) Canada (9) United States (70) Belgium (4) Ireland (1) Chile (3) Denmark (1) Mexico (33) Estonia (1) Korea (10) Hungary (1) France (15) Japan (36) Greece (2) All metropolitan areas Largest contributorCountry ( No. of cities)
  11. 11. Cities Sources: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Meddin, R (2015), The Bike-sharing World Map and Metrobits (2015), World Metro Database.) 11 The urban commute All metro and bike share systems in OECD and BRIICS countries 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1863 1873 1883 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Metro OECD BRICS 0 200 400 600 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Bike Share
  12. 12. C o s t s House prices B e n e f i t s Congestion Contagion Pollution Crime Citizen Engagement Productivity Wages Culture Innovation Are cities the new countries?
  13. 13. Families Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Eurostat data) Marriage age is rising Mean age at first marriage for men and women, 1990, 2000, and 2013. 13 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 Age 1990 2000 2013 1990 2000 2013 Women Men
  14. 14. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Numberofcountries Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (Pew Research data) 14 Families Marriage for all Number of OECD countries in which same-sex marriage is legal, 2000-2015
  15. 15. 15 Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD Household debt indicator.) Families Household debt increasing Total household debt as a percent of net disposable income, 2000 and 2012 0 100 200 300 %ofnetdisposableincome 2000 2012
  16. 16. 16 Government Policy Changing family values Ageing Child Well- being Marriage and divorce Health Household budgets Family Matters
  17. 17. Technology Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data) 17 Internet is an integral part of our lives Average number of Internet users, daily users and mobile users, 2006 and 2013. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 %ofpopulation 2013 2006 Of which daily users (2013) Mobile users (2013)
  18. 18. Technology Source: Trends Shaping Education 2016 (OECD data) 18 Online multi-tasking: more efficient or more distracted? Average number of activities being performed online at the same time per Internet user, 2009 and 2013. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Numberofactivities 2009 2013
  19. 19. 19 New technologies Social networksDigital divide Information as power Entrepreneurs Cyber bullying Cyber security Biotechnology Privacy R&DA BRAVE NEW WORLD
  20. 20. Thank you! 20 Ageing Populations Global Economic Integration International inequality Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage Changing balance of global power More satisfied with life? Lower voter turnout Skills mismatch Women in the labour market and childbirth More diverse families, generally smaller and with older parents Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet A digital society Knowledge-intensive Economies Migration and mobility Urban life Obesity epidemic

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