Outline of some slides on a review of Afghanistan as the country moves towards a possible paradigm of stability in 2014. Provides a perspective of current trends and how these may manifest towards stability in the future

1. APRIL 2012 – A PERSPECTIVE
Note – Draft Not for Citation

2. South Asia’s oldest nation state.
Over three decades of political
fragmentation.
Over three decades of violence.
5 million displaced spread in two countries.
Geopolitical and regional intersections.
Democracy intersections.
Cultural and governance disconnect.
“Donor Drunk,” economy in times of global
economic crisis?
Militancy with a time line – 2014 ?

3. To carry out a review of the
overall situation in Afghanistan
and denote a possible way
ahead.

4. Economic
Social
Political
Factors
Politico Review and
Security.
Diplomatic Way Ahead

7. 130, 000 January 2012

8. INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION AND KEY TO
POLITICAL STABILITY IN 2014

9. Key to stability in 2014 is a strong Afghan
government in Kabul.
Karzai government well entrenched in Kabul.
Shaping the regional space remains a challenge
due to various divisions mainly ethnic.
Parliament slowly and steadily making progress
in greater assertiveness over government.
Corruption and nepotism in governance a major
issue.
2014 Change of government due, with varied
contenders for Presidency – Ethnic differences
likely to be exacerbated during this period.

12. Trends in Violence and Security

13. Summary of Operations Involving Fatalities in Afghanistan 2012
Initiat Initiat Suici Multiple IEDs/B Road Assassin Othe
ed by ed by de Suicide ombs Side ations r
Coalit Taliba Atta Bombing IED/B Viole
ion n cks s omb nce
Jan 32 5 3 - 13 5 2 1
Feb 25 4 - - 4 6 4 7
Mar 35 5 5 - 13 11 6 5

14. Yea Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No De Tot
r y v c al
20 43 53 39 34 51 10 88 79 57 65 58 41 71
10 3 1
20 32 38 39 51 56 66 53 82 53 42 27 27 56
11 6
20 34 24 39 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
12 6

16. AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY AND POLICE

17. • Full Spectrum
Army for Capability.
Deterrence • All arms capability.
• Combat or fighters
Air Force • Combat Support

18. .

21. ECONOMY AND SOCIAL FACTORS

22. Transition from an economy based on supporting western security
structures to indigenous structures after 2013.
Drop in revenue after move out of foreign troops and
corresponding drop of presence of aid agencies. Major job losses
anticipated.
In 2010, of $17 billion government expenditure, $1.9 billion
Afghan sourced. Rest foreign assistance as per World Bank.
Economic potential continues to remain weak.
Main revenue from agriculture and cottage industry at present,
however there is a drop in revenues due to transit problems.
Good prospects from mining, oil and gas, transit revenues but
only in the long term.
Transit being land locked country remains a challenge. Pakistan
and Iran hold reins.
Continue to be a large aid dependent country for over a decade
beyond 2012. Requirement of funds $ 15 billion yearly?
Corruption and donor fatigue may affect aid.

23. Considerable progress made in various fields
including education, gender equity,
information and media.
Demand for higher education is growing.
Women are playing increasingly larger role in
society including in the military.
Drug consumption internally and cultivation a
key challenge.
Unemployment is also likely to be a major
vector for social stability.
Conservative trends continue and will take
time for a cultural shift.

24. POLITICAL DIPLOMATIC ISSUES

25. Bonn Conference December 2011 coagulated international
community support to Afghanistan.
Chicago and Tokyo Conference scheduled for May and July
to firm up financial and aid commitment.

26. “Our strategy is to shift to a support
role in 2013 and complete the
transition in 2014. That kind of
transition involves a change in the
foot print.”
White House Press Secretary, Jay
Carney

27. Regional players are most important but at present
are excluded from the discourse in Afghanistan?

29. Commitment of international
community in all spheres, political
and economic will determine the way
ahead. Any reduction in support will
be a key challenge for stability.
Regional compact an essential for
sustaining peace current status quo.

30. APRIL 2012 – A PERSPECTIVE
FOR FULL PRESENTATION CONTACT
rkbhonsle@gmail.com