1. Page 1 of 8
QSE Intra-Day Movement
Qatar Commentary
The QE Index declined 1.0% to close at 9,781.2. Losses were led by the Real Estate
and Industrials indices, falling 2.6% and 1.1%, respectively. Top losers were Qatar
Electricity & Water Company and Ahli Bank, falling 5.4% each. Among the top
gainers, Doha Insurance Group gained 2.6%, while Gulf International Services was up
1.1%.
GCC Commentary
Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index fell 0.6% to close at 8,479.2. Losses were led by the
Banks and Media & Entertainment indices, falling 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.
National Commercial Bank and Bank Albilad were down 2.1% each.
Dubai: The DFM Index fell 1.2% to close at 2,594.5. The Real Estate & Const. index
declined 2.2%, while the Banks index fell 1.2%. Takaful Emarat and Emaar
Properties were down 3.1% each.
Abu Dhabi: The ADX General Index fell 1.3% to close at 4,914.4. The Consumer
Staples index declined 2.2%, while the Banks index fell 1.7%. Ooredoo declined
10.0%, while Emirates Driving Company was down 9.9%.
Kuwait: The Kuwait Main Market Index gained 0.2% to close at 4,774.7. The
Financial Services and Consumer Goods indices rose 0.7% each. Energy House
Holding Co. rose 14.9%, while United Projects For Aviation was up 10.0%.
Oman: The MSM 30 Index fell 1.0% to close at 4,112.9. Losses were led by the
Services and Financial indices, falling 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Vision
Insurance fell 9.4%, while Arabia Falcon Insurance was down 6.7%.
Bahrain: The BHB Index Index fell 0.1% to close at 1,408.9. The Services index
declined 0.6%, while the Commercial Banks index fell 0.2%. Inovest Co. declined
3.7%, while National Bank of Bahrain was down 2.4%.
QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Doha Insurance Group 12.35 2.6 0.5 (5.7)
Gulf International Services 14.39 1.1 140.6 (15.4)
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 17.99 0.8 1,289.1 19.7
Investment Holding Group 5.08 0.8 166.3 3.9
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.78 0.6 5.6 (6.6)
QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 17.99 0.8 1,289.1 19.7
United Development Company 13.38 (1.3) 798.5 (9.3)
Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing 11.38 (0.9) 749.8 (14.8)
Aamal Company 9.38 (2.3) 587.5 6.1
Doha Bank 19.66 (4.6) 484.4 (11.4)
Market Indicators 07 Mar 19 06 Mar 19 %Chg.
Value Traded (QR mn) 222.2 240.5 (7.6)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 556,069.8 563,607.9 (1.3)
Volume (mn) 7.4 7.6 (1.8)
Number of Transactions 5,839 5,606 4.2
Companies Traded 45 43 4.7
Market Breadth 11:32 13:28 –
Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E
Total Return 17,704.74 (0.8) (2.2) (2.4) 13.7
All Share Index 2,993.80 (1.1) (2.7) (2.8) 14.6
Banks 3,682.88 (0.9) (2.7) (3.9) 13.6
Industrials 3,128.03 (1.1) (3.0) (2.7) 15.0
Transportation 2,205.02 (0.6) (1.3) 7.1 12.8
Real Estate 2,095.87 (2.6) (3.9) (4.2) 16.7
Insurance 2,952.24 (0.2) 1.5 (1.9) 17.9
Telecoms 895.44 (0.6) (4.6) (9.4) 18.9
Consumer 7,158.68 (0.3) (2.0) 6.0 14.7
Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,865.39 (0.9) (2.1) (0.5) 13.6
GCC Top Gainers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Etihad Etisalat Co. Saudi Arabia 20.92 3.9 6,397.6 26.2
Raysut Cement Oman 0.35 2.9 64.9 (7.9)
Al Tayyar Travel Group Saudi Arabia 25.60 2.5 2,749.1 28.0
Fawaz Abdulaziz Al Hok. Saudi Arabia 22.92 1.9 835.3 4.2
Mobile Telecom. Co. Saudi Arabia 9.81 1.2 8,096.2 18.6
GCC Top Losers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Ooredoo Oman Oman 0.52 (6.1) 16.7 (7.7)
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. Qatar 170.24 (5.4) 91.2 (8.0)
Emaar Properties Dubai 4.74 (3.1) 7,348.4 14.8
Bank Sohar Oman 0.11 (2.6) 113.0 1.8
National Bank of Bahrain Bahrain 0.62 (2.4) 9.9 11.8
Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC
Composite Large Mid Cap Index)
QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. 170.24 (5.4) 91.2 (8.0)
Ahli Bank 28.25 (5.4) 0.4 11.0
Doha Bank 19.66 (4.6) 484.4 (11.4)
Salam International Inv. Ltd. 4.31 (4.2) 22.0 (0.5)
Ezdan Holding Group 12.37 (3.8) 204.7 (4.7)
QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD%
Industries Qatar 119.69 (1.5) 25,592.2 (10.4)
QNB Group 179.00 (1.3) 24,581.2 (8.2)
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 17.99 0.8 22,990.5 19.7
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. 170.24 (5.4) 15,523.4 (8.0)
Qatar Fuel Company 182.50 (0.3) 15,458.1 9.9
Source: Bloomberg (* in QR)
Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD%
Exch. Val. Traded
($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
P/E** P/B**
Dividend
Yield
Qatar* 9,781.18 (1.0) (3.3) (3.3) (5.0) 60.78 152,752.4 13.7 1.4 4.5
Dubai 2,594.52 (1.2) (1.6) (1.6) 2.6 42.16 94,039.5 8.3 1.0 5.4
Abu Dhabi 4,914.39 (1.3) (4.3) (4.3) (0.0) 58.36 135,197.3 13.8 1.4 5.0
Saudi Arabia 8,479.16 (0.6) (0.2) (0.2) 8.3 686.16 535,496.9 18.7 1.9 3.3
Kuwait 4,774.70 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 85.22 32,837.4 15.6 0.9 4.3
Oman 4,112.92 (1.0) (0.8) (0.8) (4.9) 3.22 17,832.5 8.6 0.8 6.4
Bahrain 1,408.92 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) 5.4 4.53 21,326.6 9.0 0.9 5.8
Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any)
9,750
9,800
9,850
9,900
9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
2. Page 2 of 8
Qatar Market Commentary
The QE Index declined 1.0% to close at 9,781.2. The Real Estate and
Industrials indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling
pressure from GCC shareholders despite buying support from Qatari and
non-Qatari shareholders.
Qatar Electricity & Water Company and Ahli Bank were the top losers,
falling 5.4% each. Among the top gainers, Doha Insurance Group gained
2.6%, while Gulf International Services was up 1.1%.
Volume of shares traded on Thursday fell by 1.8% to 7.4mn from 7.6mn
on Wednesday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of
8.7mn, volume for the day was 14.5% lower. Mesaieed Petrochemical
Holding Company and United Development Company were the most
active stocks, contributing 17.4% and 10.8% to the total volume,
respectively.
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value)
Ratings, Earnings Releases, Global Economic Data and Earnings Calendar
Ratings Updates
Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change
National Bank of
Oman
Moody's Oman
ST-FBD/LT-FBD/
ST-LBD/LT-FCR/
ST-FCR/LT-DCR/
ST-DCR/LT-LBD/
ST/LT-CRA/ST-
CRA
P-3/Baa3/P-3/
Baa3/P-3/
Baa3/P-3/
Baa3/P-3/
Baa3(cr)/ P-3(cr)
NP/Ba2/NP/Ba
1/NP/Ba1/NP/B
a1/NP/Ba1(cr)/
NP(cr)
Negative –
Bank Dhofar Moody's Oman
ST/LT-FBD/LT-
LBD/ LT-CRA/ST-
CRA/ ST-FBD/ST-
LBD/LT-FCR/LT-
DCR/ST-FCR/ST-
DCR
P-3/Baa3/Baa3/
Baa3(cr)/P-3(cr)/
P-3/P-3/ Baa3/
Baa3/ P-3/ P-3
NP/Ba2/Ba1/
Ba1(cr)/NP(cr)/
NP/NP/ Ba1/
Ba1/ NP/NP
Negative –
Bank Muscat Moody's Oman
ST/LT-LBD/ST-
LBD/ ABCA/LT-
FCR/LT-CRA/ST-
CRA/BCA/LT-
DCR/LT-FBD/ST-
FCR/ST-DCR
P-3/ Baa3/ P-3/
baa3/ Baa2/
Baa2(cr)/ P-
2(cr)/ baa3/
Baa2/ Baa3/ P-
2/P-2
NP/ Ba1/ NP/
ba1/ Baa3/
Baa3(cr)/ P-
3(cr)/ ba1/
Baa3/ Ba2/ P-
3/P-3
Negative –
HSBC Bank Moody's Oman
LT-CRA/ST-
CRA/LT-FCR/LT-
DCR/ST-FCR/LT-
FBD/LT-LBD/ST-
DCR/ST-FBD/ST-
LBD
Baa2(cr)/ P-
2(cr)/
Baa2/Baa2/P-2/
Baa3/ Baa3/ P-
2/ P-3/ P-3
Baa3(cr)/ P-
3(cr)/
Baa3/Baa3/P-3/
Ba2/ Ba1/ P-
3/NP/NP
Negative –
Bank Sohar Moody's Oman LT-FBD Ba1 Ba2 Negative –
Investcorp Bank CI Bahrain SR 4 3 – –
Source: News reports (* LT – Long Term, ST – Short Term, FBD – Foreign Bank Deposits, LBD – Local Bank Deposits, CRA – Counterparty Risk Assessment, FCR – Foreign Counterparty Risk Rating, DCR –
Domestic Counterparty Risk Rating, ABCA – Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, BCA –Baseline Credit Assessment, SR – Support Rating, NP – Not Prime)
Earnings Releases
Company Market Currency
Revenue (mn)
4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Operating Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Net Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Filing and Packing Materials
Manufacturing Co.*
Saudi Arabia SR 163.5 6.4% -2.4 – -3.1 –
Taiba Holding Co.* Saudi Arabia SR 443.2 -3.0% 162.4 -22.5% 64.4 -55.9%
AWTAD Dubai AED 0.0 – 0.0 – -3.5 –
Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM, TASI, BHB. (*Financials for FY2018)
Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR)
Qatari Individuals 34.68% 28.60% 13,513,428.24
Qatari Institutions 21.38% 26.73% (11,889,937.85)
Qatari 56.06% 55.33% 1,623,490.39
GCC Individuals 0.45% 0.61% (352,594.99)
GCC Institutions 1.09% 5.00% (8,671,105.16)
GCC 1.54% 5.61% (9,023,700.15)
Non-Qatari Individuals 10.75% 8.39% 5,230,976.61
Non-Qatari Institutions 31.64% 30.67% 2,169,233.15
Non-Qatari 42.39% 39.06% 7,400,209.76
3. Page 3 of 8
Global Economic Data
Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous
03/07 US Department of Labor Initial Jobless Claims 2-March 223k 225k 226k
03/07 US Department of Labor Continuing Claims 23-February 1755k 1772k 1805k
03/07 EU Eurostat GDP SA QoQ 4Q2018 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
03/07 EU Eurostat GDP SA YoY 4Q2018 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
03/08 France INSEE National Statistics Office Industrial Production MoM January 1.3% 0.1% 0.0%
03/08 France INSEE National Statistics Office Industrial Production YoY January 1.7% 0.5% -2.5%
03/08 France INSEE National Statistics Office Manufacturing Production MoM January 1.0% -0.2% 0.4%
03/08 France INSEE National Statistics Office Manufacturing Production YoY January 0.9% -0.2% -2.0%
03/08 Japan Economic and Social Research Institute GDP SA QoQ 4Q2018 0.5% 0.4% 0.3%
03/08 Japan Economic and Social Research Institute GDP Annualized SA QoQ 4Q2018 1.9% 1.7% 1.4%
03/08 Japan Economic and Social Research Institute GDP Nominal SA QoQ 4Q2018 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
03/09 China National Bureau of Statistics CPI YoY February 1.5% 1.5% 1.7%
03/09 China National Bureau of Statistics PPI YoY February 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted)
Earnings Calendar
Tickers Company Name Date of reporting 4Q2018 results No. of days remaining Status
IGRD Investment Holding Group 12-Mar-19 2 Due
DBIS Dlala Brokerage & Investment Holding Company 17-Mar-19 7 Due
ERES Ezdan Holding Group 18-Mar-19 8 Due
MRDS Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 20-Mar-19 10 Due
AKHI Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Company 25-Mar-19 15 Due
QGMD Qatari German Company for Medical Devices 27-Mar-19 17 Due
Source: QSE
News
Qatar
AKHI postpones its board meeting to March 25, 2019 – Al
Khaleej Takaful Insurance Company (AKHI) announced that
the company will postpone its board meeting to March 25, 2019
instead of March 12, 2019 to discuss and approve the audited
financial statements for the financial year ended at December
31, 2018. (QSE)
ERES postpones its board meeting to March 18, 2019 – Ezdan
Holding Group (ERES) announced that the company will
postpone its board meeting to March 18, 2019 instead of March
10, 2019 to discuss and approve the audited financial
statements for the financial year ended at December 31, 2018.
(QSE)
QSE announces partnership deal with Ride Of Champions 2019
aiming to challenge Qatar’s listed companies to participate in
the event – Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) has partnered with the
Ooredoo Ride of Champions to launch the QSE corporate
challenge, to promote healthy living within the community, as
part of its corporate social responsibility strategy. The Ooredoo
Ride of Champions is the biggest mass-participation cycling
event in Qatar and the pinnacle of the community events
organized by Qatar cyclists, as it offers rides that suits all ages
and experience levels. More than 1,500 participants are
expected to take part in this year’s event which will be hosted
by Qatar Foundation on March 15, 2019. This partnership
agreement is the first of its kind in Qatar and will see QSE
offering prizes to its most active companies during the Ride of
Champions. (QSE)
Nikkei Qatar financial center PMI declines to 48.5 in February –
Nikkei and IHS Markit released Qatar’s February financial
center Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), fell to 48.5 in
February 2019 from 50.5 in January 2019 and 52.8 in February
2018. This is the lowest reading since November 2018. Output
also declined to 48.2 in February from 48.3 in January. This is
the lowest reading since November 2018 and second
consecutive month of contraction. (Bloomberg)
Expansion possible in petrochemicals, fertilizers, says
Industries Qatar’s official – Industries Qatar’s investments
abroad, if any, will be in petrochemicals or fertilizers according
to a senior official. Qatar Petroleum’s Privatized Companies
Affairs Manager, Mohamed Jaber A. Al-Sulaiti said
petrochemicals or fertilizers may form the bulk of Industries
Qatar’s investments abroad as part of the group’s plans to
selectively invest in capital investment projects. As the holding
entity of Qatar Petrochemicals, Qatar Fertiliser, and Qatar
Steel, Industries Qatar is currently looking at projects across
4. Page 4 of 8
the globe, including many efficiency projects in terms of
facilities expansion and capacity increase across the group, Al-
Sulaiti said. “Our international investments, if any, are going to
be limited to either petrochemicals or fertilizers,” he told
reporters on the sidelines of Industries Qatar’s Annual General
Assembly. In terms of steel production, Al-Sulaiti said the
Qatari demand currently accounts for 60% of the capacity of
Qatar Steel, while the remainder of the capacity is exported in
the region and in some Southeast Asian markets. “When you
look at Qatar Steel, this is where we are. We’re not expanding
further in steel; our main focus is in petrochemicals and
fertilizers,” he pointed out. (Gulf-Times.com)
FocusEconomics: Qatar’s merchandise trade balance to scale up
to $53.4bn in 2023 – Qatar’s merchandise trade balance will
scale up over the next four years and account for $53.4bn in
2023. This year, it will account for $46.8bn, FocusEconomics
stated in its latest country report. The current account balance
(as a percentage of the country’s GDP) will be 7.8% in 2023
compared with 7% this year. Qatar’s GDP is expected to reach
$218bn by 2023, it stated. By the year-end, Qatar’s GDP will
total $178bn. The country's economic growth in terms of
nominal GDP will reach 4.9% in 2023 from 4.4% by the end-
2019. Qatar’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of the country’s
GDP) has been estimated at 3.4% in 2023 compared to -0.2%
this year. The report has projected Qatar’s international
reserves at $31.1bn this year and $35.2bn in 2023. The
international reserves will cover 8.7 months of imports in 2023
as against 10.6 months this year. The country’s inflation, the
report noted, will be around 2% in 2023 from 1.6% this year.
Qatar’s unemployment rate (as a percentage of active
population) will stay at a meager 0.2% in 2023, unchanged from
this year. It has estimated Qatar's public debt (as a percentage
of the country’s GDP) to be at 54% this year, 53.5% in 2020,
51.3% (2021), 49% (2022) and 46.7% in 2023. Qatar’s public
debt will fall gradually until 2023, the report stated.
FocusEconomics stated Qatar’s growth this year will likely be
supported by higher hydrocarbon production and infrastructure
projects. FocusEconomics panelists forecast 2.7% growth in
2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
estimate, and 2.9% in 2020. (Gulf-Times.com)
Number of building permits in Qatar falls 15% MoM in February
– The number of building permits issued in February declined
15% MoM to reach 675, official data showed. The Planning and
Statistics Authority (PSA) released the monthly statistics of
building permits and building completion certificates issued by
all municipalities of Qatar. The data is considered an indicator
of the performance of the construction sector, which makes a
significant contribution to the national economy. The data
showed that municipality of Al Rayyan was at the top of the
municipalities where the number of building permits issued was
192, 28% of the total issued permits, while Doha municipality
came in second place with 149 permits (22%), followed by
municipality of Al Wakrah with 105 permits (16%) and Al
Da’ayen municipality with 82 permits, (12%). The rest of the
municipalities issued following number of permits: Al Khor 51
permits (8%), Umm Salal 48 permits (7%), Al Sheehaniya 28
permits (4%) and Al Shamal 20 permits (3%). This decrease was
clearly noted in most municipalities: Al Wakrah (42%), Al
Sheehaniya (18%), Al Rayyan and Al Da’ayen (12%) each,
Doha (3%). (Qatar Tribune)
CEO: QFZA targets high-value global companies – Qatar Free
Zones Authority (QFZA) is in the final rounds of discussions
with a significant number of global high-value companies.
QFZA’s primary targets are companies from key sectors like
logistics, downstream chemicals sectors, healthcare, new
energy and food processing, according to QFZA’s CEO, Lim
Meng Hui. In the new energy sector, QFZA has already signed a
MoU with China Harbour Engineering Co. (CHEC), a world-
renowned company which represents the overseas arm for its
parent company China Communications Construction Company
Ltd. CHEC is planning to cooperate with its sister company,
under CCCC, which produces new energy vehicles, on the
potential investment in Qatar Free Zones. CHEC will establish a
clean energy bus assembly factory in the Qatar Free Zones, Hui
said. Hui said discussions with some global Fortune 500
companies are also in the final stage. He said a significant
number of world class companies are in the pipeline. (Peninsula
Qatar)
S’hail AGM approves 16.5% dividend shares – S’hail Shipping
and Maritime Services (S’hail) held its Annual General Meeting
(AGM) recently and approved all the items on the agenda of the
meeting, including the board’s proposal to declare 16.5%
dividend shares to all its shareholders. S’hail is a private joint
stock company incorporated on December 11, 2016. Within a
short span of time, the company has acquired five ships ranging
from 52k dwt to 75k dwt dry bulk carriers. At the meeting, the
Chairman and Managing Director of the company, Mohamed
Khalifa Al Sada, said, “The company has made remarkable
progress in the field of maritime transport and the ships are
engaged in transportation of dry bulk materials globally even
after all doors of navigation within major gulf ports were closed
for Qatari owned and/or flagged ships.” (Peninsula Qatar)
Qatar, European Union aviation deal to yield EUR3bn benefits –
The aviation agreement reached between Qatar and the
European Union last week will create thousands of jobs and
billions of economic benefits. The agreement is expected to
generate economic benefits worth EUR3bn in the coming years.
“According to an independent economic study undertaken on
behalf of the European Commission, the agreement, with its
robust fair competition provisions, could generate economic
benefits of nearly EUR3bn over the period 2019-2025 and create
around 2,000 new jobs by 2025,” the European Commission
stated. After the deal, Qatar will have direct access to 28
European Union countries, 500mn customers and a large cargo
market, according to the European Cockpit Association.
(Peninsula Qatar)
Qatar-US trade volume grows by 40% to QR21.81bn in 2018 –
Accelerated efforts to boost bilateral trade and economic
cooperation between Qatar and the US have yielded positive
results. Both trade exchange and trade balance (from the
exchange of goods) between Qatar and the US witnessed sharp
jump in 2018. The US trade surplus with Qatar in 2018 surged to
QR10.37bn, up nearly 49% compared to QR6.99bn registered in
the previous year, official data released for the full year
showed. However, the US trade surplus against Qatar, despite
registering extraordinary growth in 2018 remained far low
5. Page 5 of 8
compared to QR13.32bn recorded in 2016, which was the all-
time high. In 2016 the Qatar-US bilateral trade peaked to
QR22.14bn. With the recently released trade exchange figures
for the month of December 2018 by the US Census Bureau, the
combined value of bilateral trade (in goods) between Qatar and
the US, for the full year of 2018, reached QR21.81bn, showing a
significant growth of nearly 40% compared to QR15.70bn for
the corresponding period in 2017. When compared to 2016, the
bilateral trade in 2018 almost reached that level, despite the
regional and global challenges. (Peninsula Qatar)
MoCI: Qatar, New Zealand bilateral trade reaches QR300mn in
2018 – Bilateral trade between Qatar and New Zealand reached
QR300mn in 2018, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry
(MoCI) stated. HE the Minister of Commerce and Industry Ali
bin Ahmed Al-Kuwari received in Doha, Fletcher Tabutu, New
Zealand’s Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Foreign Affairs,
who is currently visiting the country. At the meeting,
opportunities available and steps needed to enhance bilateral
trade were discussed. The two sides reviewed the bilateral
relations between Qatar and New Zealand and discussed
aspects of joint cooperation, particularly in trade, investment
and industry, and means of enhancing and developing them in
light of the ties between the two countries. The meeting
reviewed investment opportunities available in all sectors, the
legislation adopted by Qatar and the initiatives it launched to
support the private sector. (Gulf-Times.com)
International
US weekly jobless claims fall; productivity improves – The
number of Americans filing applications for unemployment
benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pointing to strong labor
market conditions despite signs that job growth was slowing.
While other data showed an improvement in worker
productivity in the fourth quarter, the trend remained sluggish.
Labor costs continued to rise at a moderate pace in the last
quarter, suggesting benign inflation pressures that support the
Federal Reserve’s patient stance towards further interest rate
increases this year. Initial claims for state unemployment
benefits slipped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 223,000 for the
week ended March 2, the Labor Department stated. Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at
225,000 in the latest week. The four-week moving average of
initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market
trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,000 to
226,250 last week, the lowest level in a month. (Reuters)
ECB cuts growth, inflation forecasts – European Central Bank
(ECB) slashed its growth and inflation forecasts for 2019 and
lowered those for 2020 and 2021, acknowledging that Europe’s
slowdown was longer and deeper than earlier thought. ECB’s
President, Mario Draghi said that, unusually, the central bank
had not changed its assessment that risks were balanced to the
downside despite the policy changes. He said that was because,
although decisions would increase the resilience of the
Eurozone’s economy, it could not affect external factors such as
rising protectionism and the still-uncertain course of Brexit.
Moreover, ECB changed tack on its tightening plan, pushing out
the timing of its first post-crisis rate hike until 2020 at the
earliest and offering banks a new round of cheap loans to help
revive the Eurozone’s economy. The bolder-than-expected
move came as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks
around the world are also holding back on rate hikes. It
underlined how a global trade war, Brexit uncertainty and
simmering debt concerns in Italy are taking their toll on
economic growth across Europe. (Reuters)
European Union’s trade Chief urges US to focus on industrials,
cars in talks – European Union’s Trade Commissioner, Cecilia
Malmstrom urged the US to negotiate removing tariffs on
industrial goods, including vehicles, as a first step to rebuilding
trust in their trade relationship before tackling thornier issues
such as agriculture. “There is a lack of trust at this moment and
that is why we’re proposing instead of increasing tensions
between us, instead of having these tariffs, instead of saying
that Europe is a security threat to the American economy, OK
let’s rebuild that trust,” Malmstrom said. “If we start with
industrial goods, which is much less complicated and which will
be beneficial for both sides, we maybe can rebuild that trust,”
she said, adding there’s no appetite in the EU right for a full-
blown trade agreement with the US. Malmstrom said the
European Union is willing to discuss autos in the negotiations,
but she repeated the bloc wants farm products kept out of talks.
The European Union still does not have a negotiating mandate,
but Malmstrom said she hopes official discussions will start
soon. (Bloomberg)
Germany’s industrial orders post strongest drop in seven
months – German industrial orders posted their biggest drop in
seven months in January, a further sign that Europe’s largest
economy had a subdued start to 2019, although December’s
figure was revised to show a rise rather than the previously
reported fall. Contracts for goods ‘Made in Germany’ were down
by 2.6% on the month, Economy Ministry data showed,
marking their steepest fall since June 2018 and confounding
forecasts for a 0.5% increase. The figure for December was
revised to an increase of 0.9% rather than the drop of 1.6%
announced a month ago. The Federal Statistics Office put the
revision down to large orders for December being reported late.
Separate data from the VDMA engineering association
published showed contracts in that sector has declining by 9%
on the year in January as bookings from the Eurozone tumbled
by 22%. (Reuters)
QNB Group: ASEAN set to outperform other key EMs in growth,
overall dynamism – Buffered by relatively strong external
positions, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
countries are set to outperform other key emerging markets in
terms of both growth and overall dynamism, QNB Group stated
in an economic commentary. With a more dovish US Federal
Reserve (Fed) and positive developments in global trade
disputes, emerging markets (EM) have benefited from a
substantial recovery in risk sentiment. However, recent gains
can easily be reversed should major global risks materialize,
including resurgence in US-China trade jitters, an unexpected
tightening by the Fed or a hard landing in China, QNB Group
stated. New bouts of external pressure on vulnerable EM would
be expected to follow any sudden reversal in risk sentiment. In
this sense, it is ever more important to track and analyze the
leading indicators of external vulnerability in key EM. QNB
Group’s analysis delves into external financing requirements
and foreign exchange liquidity positions of the four largest
6. Page 6 of 8
economies of the ASEAN – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and
the Philippines – drawing conclusions about their resilience to
external shocks. (Gulf-Times.com)
Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP revised up as investment rebounds
but trade clouds outlook – The Japanese economy grew faster
than initially estimated in the fourth quarter as capital
investment staged a quick recovery from a series of natural
disasters in the previous quarter. However, despite the upward
revision to growth, economists are likely to temper their
optimism on the outlook given disappointing data on exports
and factory output and with the economy expected to weaken
due to the Sino-US trade war. Japan’s GDP rose an annualized
1.9% in October-December, more than the initial estimate of a
1.4% expansion and the median estimate for a 1.8% increase,
data from the Cabinet Office showed. That followed a revised
2.4% annualized contraction in the third quarter, which was the
biggest decline in more than four years. Economists warn that
capital expenditure and overall economic growth are likely to
weaken in the first half of this year as exports dwindle and
inventories pile up due to a slowdown in global trade. (Reuters)
China's February producer inflation flat amid lackluster
demand, consumer inflation eases – China’s factory-gate
inflation in February stayed flat from a month earlier, while
gains in consumer prices slipped to the lowest level in more
than a year as muted price pressures point to lackluster demand
in the world’s second-largest economy. The inflation data is the
latest indication of slowing demand in China, as factory
surveys also point to dwindling export orders amid a protracted
US-Sino trade war. Signs of deflation could prompt the
government to roll out more aggressive measures to halt a
sharper slowdown after growth dipped to nearly 30-year lows
in 2018. China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) in February rose
0.1% on year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
showed, the slowest pace since September 2016, and compared
with a 0.1% increase in January. Analysts polled by Reuters had
expected producer inflation would pick up to 0.2%. On a
monthly basis, producer prices have already been falling over
the past four months. In February, PPI fell 0.1%, moderating
from a 0.6% decrease in January. (Reuters)
China’s February foreign exchange reserves rise to six-month
high, eases outflow worry – China’s foreign exchange reserves
in February rose to their highest in six months as growing
optimism over US-China trade talks buoyed the Yuan currency,
easing worries about capital outflows from the slowing
economy. While China’s economy continues to cool, analysts
believe the risk of strong capital outflows has greatly
diminished in recent months as the Yuan regained its footing
and foreign investors piled back into the country’s battered
stock markets. Chinese foreign exchange reserves, the world’s
largest rose by $2.26bn in February to $3.090tn, central bank
data showed, marking the highest level since August 2018.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected reserves would fall
$920mn to $3.087tn. (Reuters)
Regional
IATA: Middle East airlines’ freight volumes contracts 4.5% in
January – Middle Eastern airlines’ freight volumes contracted
4.5% in January compared to the corresponding period in 2018,
International Air Transport Association (IATA) stated in a
report. Capacity increased by 4.1% and seasonally-adjusted
international air cargo demand, which trended upwards for the
past three months helped by stronger trade to and from Europe
and Asia, has started to decline, the report stated. IATA’s data
for global air freight markets showed that demand, measured in
freight ton kilometers (FTKs), decreased 1.8% in January 2019,
compared to the same period in 2018. This was the worst
performance in the last three years. Freight capacity, measured
in available freight ton kilometers (AFTKs), rose by 4.0% YoY in
January 2019. This was the eleventh month in a row that
capacity growth outstripped demand growth. (Gulf-Times.com)
GCC IT spend is projected to rise average 2.8% this year, says
researcher – Spending on “disruptive” technologies in the Gulf
Co-operation Council (GCC) region will increase this year, and
IT budgets in the GCC are projected to rise, on average, by 2.8%,
Vice President and Research Analyst at Gartner, Partha Iyengar
said. Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the number one
game-changing technology in 2019 by 38% of GCC CIOs. Data
analytics is at number two, identified by 22% of respondents.
“There are some interesting use cases of AI emerging in the
market,” he said. “Cybersecurity is, today, a given and is the
responsibility of the CIO; 44% of GCC CIOs are accountable for
cybersecurity in their organization,” he added. The survey also
found that 86% of GCC respondents have already deployed
cybersecurity or plan to do so in the next 12 months, which is
an increase of 26 percentage points YoY. However,
cybersecurity is still seen predominantly as a “technology”
issue within the GCC. “CIOs need to work with their business
stakeholders to sensitize them to the fact that cybersecurity is
very much a ‘business risk’-related issue and give it the required
focus and importance,” he said. (Gulf-Times.com)
Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company plans $2.3bn in Sukuk
sales – Saudi Arabia’s first mortgage-refinancing firm is set to
debut in the bond market with a plan to raise as much as $2.3bn
this year as the Kingdom seeks to expand home ownership. The
Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company (SRC), the state-run
equivalent of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the US, will tap
domestic and international debt buyers with Islamic bonds,
CEO, Fabrice Susini said. The refinance firm aims to fund
around 80% of its assets with debt or loans, he added. Saudi
Arabia has taken a number of measures to increase home
construction and lending as it seeks to overcome one of the
world’s lowest mortgage penetration rates. For years, the
absence of financing firms like SRC limited the ability of banks
to expand their mortgage books amid central-bank limits on
loans to any one sector. The refinancing firm, which started in
end of 2017, has been operating for one year. It was started
with SR5bn in capital and has been working closely with the
government’s Real Estate Development Fund. The fund also
provides interest-free loans to middle and low-income citizens
through commercial banks. The SRC plans to sell Sukuk
domestically in the next two quarters and will tap international
investors by the end of the year, he said. (Bloomberg)
Saudi Arabia discovered large quantities of gas, Al-Falih says –
Saudi Arabia has discovered large quantities of natural gas in
the Red Sea, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih
said. Saudi Aramco will intensify the exploration during next
7. Page 7 of 8
two years after confirming the feasibility of the project.
(Bloomberg)
Saudi Aramco-Sabic deal will be announced 'within weeks' –
Saudi Aramco and petrochemicals maker Saudi Basic Industries
Corp. (SABIC) are at a “fairly advanced” stage of planning for
the proposed acquisition and the Saudi Aramco bond issuance
to finance the deal, Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih said. Saudi
Aramco board will be briefed on the SABIC acquisition this
month. Saudi Aramco could stagger payments for SABIC deal,
the oil minister had said in January. Saudi Arabia is also looking
at acquiring natural gas assets in the US, Russia and Australia;
is also interested in Africa. (Bloomberg)
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister reiterates Saudi Aramco IPO to
happen within two years – Saudi Aramco’s Initial Public
Offering (IPO) is expected to happen within two years, the
Saudi Arabian newspaper Okaz reported, citing Saudi Arabian
Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih. He had said in January that
Saudi Aramco will be listed by 2021. (Reuters)
Saudi Arabia says no current plans to raise Islamic tax for
private sector – Saudi Arabia has no current plans to increase
Islamic tax levels in the private sector, the General Authority of
Zakat and Tax stated. Bloomberg had reported that Saudi
Arabia is considering raising the tax to as much as 20% from
the current 10%. “The authority wished to clarify that there are
no current plans to increase the Zakat levels in the private
sector,” the authority stated. Its body stated that it has started
a public consultation on draft regulations for Islamic tax
(Zakat) after making some amendments to the content of the
regulation. “All stakeholders have responded positively and
stated their comments which the Authority has received with
interest and has expressed its appreciation for their input,” it
stated. It also stated that the authority has made settlements
with a number of financial institutions and others regarding
their pending Zakat positions. (Reuters)
Emirates NBD hires banks for Dollar bond issue – Emirates NBD
has hired banks to arrange fixed income investor meetings
before a potential issue of US Dollar-denominated bonds, a
document issued by one of the banks showed. The bank has
mandated BNP Paribas, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi
Bank (FAB), HSBC, Nomura and Standard Chartered Bank. The
planned deal will be of benchmark size, which generally means
at least $500mn, and will be an Additional Tier 1 perpetual bond
not callable for six years. Perpetual bonds are similar to an
equity instrument in the fact that they have no maturity.
(Reuters)
8. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mehmet Aksoy, PhD QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mehmet.aksoy@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNB FS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNB FS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and
opinions of QNB FS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNB FS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of
the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment
decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNB FS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be
accurate or complete. QNB FS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect.
For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNB FS Fundamental Research as a
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Page 8 of 8
Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg (
#
Market was closed on March 8, 2019) Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns,
#
Market was closed on March 8, 2019)
45.0
70.0
95.0
120.0
Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19
QSEIndex S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC
(0.6%)
(1.0%)
0.2%
(0.1%)
(1.0%)
(1.3%) (1.2%)(1.5%)
(1.0%)
(0.5%)
0.0%
0.5%
SaudiArabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%*
Gold/Ounce 1,298.40 1.0 0.4 1.2 MSCI World Index 2,051.12 (0.5) (2.2) 8.9
Silver/Ounce 15.34 2.1 0.9 (1.0) DJ Industrial 25,450.24 (0.1) (2.2) 9.1
Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 65.74 (0.8) 1.0 22.2 S&P 500 2,743.07 (0.2) (2.2) 9.4
Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 56.07 (1.0) 0.5 23.5 NASDAQ 100 7,408.14 (0.2) (2.5) 11.6
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 2.92 0.0 (8.6) (8.5) STOXX 600 370.57 (0.8) (2.1) 7.7
LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 68.37 (0.9) 2.6 7.7 DAX 11,457.84 (0.4) (2.3) 6.6
LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 70.25 (1.1) (3.4) 0.4 FTSE 100 7,104.31 (1.6) (1.5) 7.8
Euro 1.12 0.4 (1.1) (2.0) CAC 40 5,231.22 (0.6) (1.7) 8.5
Yen 111.17 (0.4) (0.6) 1.3 Nikkei 21,025.56 (1.5) (1.9) 4.5
GBP 1.30 (0.5) (1.4) 2.0 MSCI EM 1,030.13 (1.3) (2.0) 6.7
CHF 0.99 0.3 (0.9) (2.6) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,969.86 (4.5) (1.0) 21.9
AUD 0.70 0.4 (0.5) (0.1) HANG SENG 28,228.42 (1.9) (2.0) 9.0
USD Index 97.31 (0.4) 0.8 1.2 BSE SENSEX 36,671.43 0.0 3.1 1.2
RUB#
66.28 0.0 0.5 (4.9) Bovespa 95,364.85 1.4 (1.4) 8.6
BRL 0.26 0.0 (2.4) 0.3 RTS#
1,179.58 0.0 (0.7) 10.4
97.0
91.4
81.1