1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Downmove
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Downmove
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Downmove
The QE Index fell around 66 points (-0.63%) to close at 10,402.77.
The index breached the important support of 10,445.44 and
witnessed selling pressure throughout the day as bears were in full
control. We believe till the time the index trades below 10,445.44,
bears may continue to dominate the bulls and push prices lower. The
next support to watch out for is the 21-day moving average (currently
at 10,396.47), which if breached, may test 10,360.0.
The QERI Index penetrated below the key support near 3,048.0 and
the 21-day moving average (currently at 3,047.24) in a single swoop
to close the session at 3,047.12. However, the index managed to
recover from its day’s low of 3,028.12. We believe if the weakness
continues, the index may test 3,036.0. On the flip side, the index
needs to close above 3,048.0 to attract buying interest. Meanwhile,
both indicators are pointing down with no trend reversal signs.
MARK dipped below the support of QR33.50 and has been in
declining mode since peaking at QR35.0. Moreover, yesterday’s
decline came on the back of large volumes. With the RSI moving
down toward the midline and the MACD growing more bearish, it
appears MARK may not hold on to its support of the 21-day moving
average and test the QR32.85 level. However, if the stock manages
to climb above QR33.50, it may halt its downmove.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Downmove
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Downmove
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
QIIK declined below the supports of the 21-day moving average
(currently at QR60.33) and QR60.10 in a single trading session on the
back of increased volumes. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish
Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely lower move. We believe
the stock was underperforming over the past few days and may drift
lower to test QR59.80. Any sustained weakness below this level may
pull the stock to test the QR59.20 level.
BRES breached the support of QR30.10 for the first time since
November. Notably, volumes were also large on the breakdown
which is a negative sign. Moreover, the RSI and the MACD lines are
in downtrend mode with no immediate trend reversal signs indicating
continued weakness. We believe although BRES is trading close to
its immediate support of QR29.70, it may not cling on to it and head
lower to test the QR29.20 level.
IQCD continued to move lower yesterday and breached its support of
QR166.50 on the back of large volumes. The stock has been
experiencing a steady decline over the past three days and may
continue to drift lower to test QR165.0. The prognosis at this time
frame implies more downside with the RSI continuing to move lower
and the MACD line moving further down. Conversely, if IQCD
manages to move above QR166.50, it may advance.
Page 1 of 2

2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
10,402.77
FLAT
UP
10,396.47
10,360.00
10,445.44
10,500.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
3,047.12
DOWN
UP
3,036.00
3,000.00
3,048.00
3,071.36
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)*
33.30
FLAT
UP
32.85
32.35
33.50
34.15
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
69.90
UP
UP
69.65
69.20
70.00
70.50
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.40
DOWN
UP
57.40
56.90
58.20
58.50
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
69.40
UP
UP
69.00
68.50
69.50
70.30
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)*
60.00
DOWN
UP
59.80
59.20
60.10
61.20
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
65.50
DOWN
UP
65.40
64.40
65.90
66.50
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
30.25
DOWN
DOWN
30.00
29.55
30.60
31.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
53.50
UP
UP
53.00
51.90
54.00
54.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
133.50
DOWN
DOWN
133.40
132.00
133.90
134.50
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
166.40
DOWN
UP
165.00
163.80
166.50
168.10
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
168.00
UP
UP
168.00
167.00
169.00
169.80
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
60.40
UP
UP
60.00
59.80
60.50
61.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
43.40
UP
UP
43.00
42.25
43.45
44.20
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)*
29.75
DOWN
UP
29.70
29.20
30.10
30.85
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
22.81
DOWN
FLAT
22.50
22.00
22.85
23.15
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
137.80
UP
DOWN
137.00
136.00
138.00
139.90
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
11.11
DOWN
UP
10.83
10.20
11.19
11.44
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
20.93
UP
UP
20.60
20.00
21.07
21.32
Milaha (QNNS QD)
84.90
DOWN
DOWN
84.50
83.90
85.00
86.00
Banks and Financial Services
Banks and
Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer G
Industrials
Industrials
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Telecom
Transportation
Transportat
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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