TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index snapped its six-day losing streak and gained around
260 points as bulls were back in action. The index witnessed a gapup opening and reclaimed 11,400.0, its 21-day moving average and
11,600.0 in a single swoop after falling sharply on Wednesday. We
believe the index may resume its upmove and advance toward
11,660.0, only if it manages to cling onto the 21-day moving average.
Any retreat below this level may result in a pullback toward 11,520.0.
The QERI Index bounced back and appreciated 1.95% to settle
above the 3,350.0 level. The index cleared its resistances of both the
21-day moving average and 3,329.75, despite suffering heavy losses
on Wednesday. However, accumulation is not recommended until a
further bullish confirmation occurs. Meanwhile, the index faces an
immediate hurdle at 3,382.68, which it needs to clear in order to gain
further momentum. Until then, the index may consolidate.
GISS continued its upmove on Thursday. The stock has been slowly
gaining strength since moving above the 21-day moving average and
is in an upward mode. Moreover, with the RSI moving higher toward
the overbought territory, and the MACD crossing the signal line into
the positive territory, the preferred direction seems to be on the
upside. We believe the stock may be ready for a higher move above
QR91.80, targeting the QR94.0 level.
Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Breakout
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Breakout
QIIK witnessed a gap-up opening and cleared the resistances of
QR74.40 and QR75.80 in a single swoop after a failed attempt earlier.
We believe if the stock can remain above QR75.80, then there is a
possibility of a steady rise and a further advance toward the QR77.077.50 levels. However, a dip below QR75.80 may result in a false
breakout. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence,
supporting our positive technical outlook.
IQCD moved higher and developed a bullish Marubozu candle
pattern on Thursday, which usually indicates an upward move. The
stock is currently trading at the brink of its immediate resistance at
QR195.0. A move above this level may spark additional buying
interest, which may push the stock toward QR197.70. However, any
failure to move above this level may result in consolidation.
Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner.
MARK witnessed a gap-up opening and surpassed the immediate
resistances of QR38.0 and the 21-day moving average, along with
the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the
past. However, the stock faces an immediate resistance at QR39.10.
If the stock manages to cross this level, it may result in the
confirmation of this bullish move and may test QR40.0. Meanwhile,
the RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up.
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Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)*
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)*
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)*
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
Milaha (QNNS QD)
Banks and Financial Services
Consumer Goods and Services
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Ahmed M. Shehada
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
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