17 February Daily technical trader


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17 February Daily technical trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index extended its gains on Sunday, marking a bullish run for the seventh consecutive day. The index gained 0.27% to close the day at 11,546.23, marking its highest level since August 2008. The gains over the last few days have been supported by good volumes, which is a bullish sign. The MACD has given a positive crossover, while the RSI is trending higher, suggesting the uptrend is intact. The 11,590 level will be the next strong resistance level. The QERI Index continued its uptrend, tagging a new all-time high, as it gained 0.98% to close at 3,324.28. The MACD has crossed over the signal line on the positive side, providing a bullish signal. In addition, the RSI is also trending higher. The index will face short-term resistance at 3,350. On the flip side, a move below the psychologically important 3,300 level can push the index lower toward its support of 3,270. IQCD gained sharply over the past few trading sessions, after falling significantly in the first week of February. In addition, the volumes have also been very good over the last three trading sessions. A close above the QR180 level would indicate that the long-term uptrend in is intact. A move above this level can push the stock to QR182.5. On the flip side, investors should exercise caution if the stock moves below the 21-day moving average (at QR178.39). Doha Bank: Short-Term – Upmove Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Breakout DHBK tested its resistance of QR65.70, but was unable to move above it. A move above this level can push the stock to new highs. The QR66.0 level would act as a short-term resistance. On the flip side, a pullback from here can push the stock lower toward its 21-day moving average (currently at QR64.76), which is a strong support level. The MACD has been trending lower, while the RSI is finding resistance near the overbought zone. CBQK jumped sharply on Sunday, moving above the 21-day moving average and closing at QR73.80. The MACD has converged with the signal line and is about to give a positive crossover, while the RSI has been trending higher. The gains on Sunday were driven by high volumes, which is a bullish sign. A move above its resistance level of QR74.0 can push the stock to QR75.0. On the flipside, support is seen at its 21-day moving average (currently at QR72.66). QEWS finally broke out of its resistance level of QR185.0, after testing it several times in the recent past. The stock gained on high volumes to close at QR186.30. The MACD also provided a positive crossover on Sunday, while the RSI continued to trend higher. Thus, with all the indicators providing a bullish signal, the stock is likely to continue its uptrend. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock moves below the QR185 level. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,546.23 UP UP 11,484.45 11,452.97 11,590.00 11,650.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,324.28 UP UP 3,300.00 3,270.00 3,350.00 3,370.00 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 39.65 UP UP 39.10 38.00 41.00 42.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 73.80 UP UP 72.80 71.80 74.00 75.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 65.70 UP UP 64.00 63.30 65.70 66.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 82.00 UP UP 81.50 80.20 82.20 83.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 73.00 UP UP 72.80 72.50 73.50 74.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 82.00 UP UP 81.00 80.00 82.50 84.60 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 29.10 DOWN DOWN 29.15 28.50 29.95 30.30 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 47.80 DOWN DOWN 47.15 46.00 49.30 50.30 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 153.10 UP UP 151.50 149.00 153.70 155.00 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 179.80 UP UP 178.30 174.60 180.00 181.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 186.30 UP UP 185.00 182.50 188.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 83.20 UP UP 82.50 81.00 84.60 86.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 42.50 DOWN DOWN 41.00 39.50 41.50 43.45 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 31.50 DOWN DOWN 30.10 29.70 30.85 31.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.64 DOWN DOWN 22.38 22.00 22.84 23.10 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.50 UP UP 145.90 144.00 149.00 150.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.55 UP UP 12.15 12.09 12.50 13.00 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.53 UP UP 21.44 21.07 22.00 22.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 91.90 UP UP 91.30 90.00 92.00 94.50 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Real Estate Telecom Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2