1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pull Back
Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Pull Back
The QE Index penetrated below the support of 9,669.06 and declined
around 42 points (-0.43%) to close at 9,652.35. However the index
rebounded from its day’s low of 9,616.28 as buyers stepped in and
pushed prices higher. The important level for traders to watch out for
is support at 9,600.0, which if breached, may test 9,550.0 as it has
little support until then. Meanwhile, the RSI is pointing lower, while the
MACD has crossed the signal line into the negative territory.
The QERI Index fell below the support of the 55-day moving average
(currently at 2,790.86) and also the 21-day moving average (currently
at 2,787.36) to close on a sour note. The index also declined below
the key support of the 2,782.80 level after consolidating above it over
the past few days, indicating weakness. With both indicators moving
lower it seems the index may drift down further toward 2,760.0.
However, a close above 2,782.80 may halt its downmove.
CBQK breached below the support of QR66.50 and has been
witnessing selling pressure over the past few days. Moreover, the
decline was driven by large volumes, which is a negative sign. We
believe the stock is trending weak and may test QR66.0. Moreover,
the RSI is moving down toward the oversold territory, while the MACD
is turning more bearish indicating a further downside. However,
traders may watch out for QR66.50 for any reversal.
Widam Food Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Pull Back
Al Meera Consumer Good Co.: Short-Term – Pull Back
WDAM attempted to find some footing near the QR50.0 level, but
eventually caved in to selling pressure on Thursday with large
volumes. The stock has been moving along the descending trendline
over the past few days and penetrated below the important support
near QR50.0. We believe with both momentum indicators in
downtrend mode, WDAM seems to be heading lower to test QR48.0.
ORDS declined below the support of QR139.90 and the ascending
trendline in a single swoop on Thursday. Moreover, the stock formed
a bearish Marubozu Candle pattern indicating that it may decline
further from the current level. The stock is currently trading close to its
support of QR138.0, but we believe it is unlikely that it will cling on to it
and will decline further to test QR137.0. However, if the stock climbs
above the ascending trendline, it may indicate a false breakdown.
MERS breached below the important support of QR137.0 and the
ascending trendline in a single trading session. Notably, volumes
were also large on the breakdown, which is a negative sign. MERS
momentarily managed to move above the descending trendline, but
declined later and developed a red Marubozu Candle pattern. We
believe with both indicators pointing down, MERS may test QR136.0
on the downside, which if penetrated, may even test QR135.0.
Page 1 of 2

2. Name (Ticker)
Last Close
Trend
Short Term
Support
Long Term
First
Resistance
Second
First
Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
9,652.35
DOWN
DOWN
9,500.00
9,440.00
10,200.00
10,350.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
2,781.44
DOWN
DOWN
2,700.00
2,600.00
2,950.00
3,000.00
Banks and Financial Services
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
29.35
UP
UP
24.00
23.20
31.40
33.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)*
66.40
DOWN
DOWN
63.90
62.40
84.20
87.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
54.50
UP
UP
42.00
39.50
57.14
58.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)
66.80
DOWN
DOWN
65.00
64.30
78.50
79.60
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
56.60
UP
UP
47.90
45.00
60.80
61.50
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
61.90
UP
UP
58.50
57.00
62.30
63.30
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
30.65
DOWN
DOWN
30.50
28.75
43.90
45.00
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)*
48.80
DOWN
DOWN
47.50
46.70
69.10
78.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)*
136.50
UP
UP
129.90
128.50
138.50
140.15
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
153.00
DOWN
DOWN
144.10
142.00
175.20
176.80
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)
155.00
DOWN
DOWN
140.00
132.10
172.00
174.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
56.80
UP
UP
30.50
29.50
58.50
60.15
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)
31.25
UP
UP
20.36
20.00
31.80
33.50
Consumer Goods and Services
Industrials
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD
26.65
UP
UP
22.80
19.50
29.25
29.90
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
21.60
DOWN
DOWN
17.06
16.00
25.30
25.90
138.10
DOWN
DOWN
108.00
98.10
146.00
148.00
9.05
FLAT
DOWN
8.50
8.24
9.98
10.20
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
18.87
DOWN
DOWN
15.08
14.52
21.15
21.70
Milaha (QNNS QD)
85.10
UP
UP
58.20
56.70
86.50
87.85
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)*
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
Transportation
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1>
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2>
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3>
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar
Ahmed M. Shehada
Keith Whitney
Sahbi Kasraoui
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
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