Lindsay falvey poland niras 4
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Presentation to NIRAS International Consulting, Sept7 2015, Hotel Warszawianka, Warsaw, Poland. Integration as approach for professionals in international consulting using food and agriculture as the underlying foundation of development.
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Lindsay falvey poland niras 4
- 1. Changing Paradigms Integrated Thinking Prof. Lindsay Falvey FTSE September 2015
- 2. Changing Paradigms Integrated Thinking • Dev’t Goals interrelated • Sustainability integrated knowledge • Widening our view • What is changing? • Perspectives of changes • an example: CGIAR & ILRI (world’s largest issue)
- 4. 4 Integration in Development Consulting?
- 5. 5
- 6. Through the NIC Window … in a changing world But What to We See? 6
- 7. 7 We see a project, a program, a problem and we apply our experience & learning Training & experience our window view: - We ‘know’ automatically from what we see - We see what others do in similar cases - We apply intellectual constructs we know Is this really integrating all parameters, all knowledge?
- 8. Biased View: Automatic thinking(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 8
- 9. Biased View: Automatic thinking(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 9
- 10. Biased View: Social thinking(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 10
- 11. Biased View: Social thinking(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 11
- 12. Biased View: Mental models(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 12
- 13. Biased View: Mental models(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 13
- 14. Integrated & Iterative(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 14
- 15. 15 Widening Our View - Objective thinking - Not Automatic, Social & Mental
- 16. 16 Widening Our View - Objective thinking - Not Automatic, Social & Mental - Integrating what’s changing
- 17. What is Changing?(Sachs, 2015) 17
- 18. What is Changing?(Sachs, 2015) 18
- 19. What is Changing?(Sachs, 2015) 19
- 23. Rockström (in Nature) concluded: “… as long as the thresholds are not crossed, humanity has the freedom to pursue long-term social and economic development.” What is Changing? 23
- 24. 24
- 25. 25
- 26. 26 A World of Change - Population - Environment - Inequity - Migration - Riots - Epidemics - Technology
- 27. 27 A World of Change - Population - Environment - Inequity - Migration Understanding - Riots Changes - Epidemics - Technology
- 28. Understanding Changes – one view 28
- 29. Understanding Changes – one view 29
- 30. Understanding Changes – one view 30
- 31. Understanding Changes – one view 31
- 32. 32
- 33. 33 Ideologies, Views & Beliefs - Not perpetual crisis - Not just a new cycle - Maybe a hierarchy of human dev’t
- 34. 34 Ideologies, Views & Beliefs - Not perpetual crisis - Not just a new cycle - Maybe a hierarchy of human dev’t Integrating Views World’s Greatest Challenge
- 36. Food Trade is Dynamic & Complex
- 38. Thousands of ha per person Less than 2 ha per person − shared with at least 5 animals
- 39. 39 Global status of human- induced soil degradation Source: www.fao.org Very high severity High severity Moderate severity Low severity Stable Land, Ice Caps or non-used wasteland
- 40. What are we Relying on? 40 Breeding, Irrigation & Fertilizer
- 41. 41 Fossils Fuels Feed the World Haber-Bosch process IFDC & Deli Chen, 2015)
- 42. Rural Development Resource Use Efficiency/Waste Reduction Sustainable Intensification Resilience (agricultural, societal) Responsible DietsPrecision Farming Internalising Environmental Costs Climate Change Adapted Crop Systems High-Tech World Industrial Agricultural System Response to Mass Demand Urbanisation / Changing Diets Globalised Trade System 2030 Today Culture of Innovation 3 Hyperurbanisation Rapid Change in Diets 1 2 Regionalised Trade Systems How: keep track & have impact?
- 44. World’s Greatest Challenge: Food Add to this: • Food > environments • Increasing demand & wealth • Food used as a weapon • Food-induced migration • Ungovernable countries Need to secure the seeds of/for human survival Svalbard 44
- 45. 45
- 46. Sustainability - Security - Integration - Objectivity - Generosity - Humility 46
- 48. Gene Bank - Food crop seeds - Pasture seeds - Ownership - Simple - Low Operating $ 48
- 49. Food Demand • More for more people • More for urban dwellers • More E-intense for wealthy • Cereals = staples • But meat and dairy rise faster 49
- 50. 50
- 51. By 2050 we’ll need huge amounts of cereals, dairy and meat 1bn tonnes more cereals to 2050 1bn tonnes dairy each year 460m tonnes meat each year
- 52. 4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock FAO 2013
- 54. What is Int’ Dev’ Relying on? 54
- 55. 55 Multiple Complex Changes • Donors • Partnerships • Financing • Globalized issues INTEGRATED THINKING
- 56. 56
- 57. Integrated & Iterative Project Cycle 57
- 58. Changing Paradigms Integrated Thinking • Interrelationships: $, disciplines, agencies, views • External environment always changing • Varying perspectives of changes • Examples of adaptation for food • Partnerships becomes a wider concept
- 59. Integrating Our Thinking(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 59
- 60. Integrated & Iterative(World Dev’t Report, 2015) 60
- 61. 61 Conclusions We have three responsibilities: 1. Guard against our beliefs & biases
- 62. 62 Conclusions We have three responsibilities: 1. Guard against our beliefs & biases 2. Know what interacts with our fields
- 63. 63 Conclusions We have three responsibilities: 1. Guard against our beliefs & biases 2. Know what interacts with our fields 3. Bring knowledge to serve clients
- 64. 64 Conclusions We have three responsibilities: 1. Guard against our beliefs & biases 2. Know what interacts with our fields 3. Bring knowledge to serve clients Thank you
Editor's Notes
- Integration across disciplines and bringing in outside knowledge is a new approach
- From NIRAS webpage
- Each NIC discipline can be related to almost all SDGs
- NIC disciplinary categories
- We do not make decisions by taking into account all costs and benefits conform to social expectations changing or arbitrarily tastes mental models that depend on the situation
- Automatic thinking gives us a partial view of the world To make most decisions and judgments, we think automatically. We use narrow framing and draw on default assumptions and associations, which can give us a misleading picture of a situation. Even seemingly irrelevant details about how a situation is presented can affect how we perceive it, since we tend to jump to conclusions based on limited information.
- What others think, expect, and do influences our preferences and decisions Humans are inherently social. In making decisions, we are often affected by what others are thinking and doing and what they expect from us. Others can pull us toward certain frames and patterns of collective behavior.
- Thinking draws on mental models Individuals do not respond to objective experience but to mental representations of experience. In constructing their mental representations, people use interpretive frames provided by mental models. People have access to multiple and often conflicting mental models. Using a different mental model can change what an individual perceives and how he or she interprets it.
- Development professionals “While the goal of development is to end poverty, development professionals are not always good at predicting how poverty shapes mindsets. The WDR 2015 team administered a randomized survey to examine judgment and decision making among World Bank staff. Although 42 percent of Bank staff predicted that most poor people in Nairobi, Kenya, would agree with the statement that “vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization,” only 11 percent of the poor people sampled (defined in this case as the bottom third of the wealth distribution in that city) actually agreed with the statement. Similarly, staff predicted that many more poor residents of Jakarta, Indonesia, and Lima, Peru, would express feelings of helplessness and lack of control over their future than actually did, according to the WDR 2015 team survey. This finding suggests that development professionals may assume that poor individuals may be less autonomous, less responsible, less hopeful, and less knowledgeable than they in fact are. Beliefs like these about the context of poverty shape policy choices. It is important to check mental models of poverty against reality.”
- Positives: material wealth per person on average, increasing exponentially, and poverty declining
- Positive: innovation reduces costs of life enhancing technologies
- Posititve: biological understanding assists food and agriculture, and health for greater numbers
- Negative: Population growth in stressed environments
- Negative: inequity rising
- Negative: CO2 rising
- Negative: all quantified thresholds raise concerns
- Negative: migration
- Negative: Civil disorder/riots
- Rockefeller Foundation: constant crises
- Two dimensional view of next phase – go with the flow?
- Hierarchical view of development (Falvey) – illustrates need to ensure food security for other inputs to have effect
- Leads to conclusion to enhance small farmers and regulate agribusiness in order to manage pillars of food security to support governance and other developments
- These views developed in this book – highlighting some BIASES
- Riots correlate to rice/cereal price peaks
- This is not arable land but total land surface – 13.4 billion ha. Only 11% of this is estimated to be arable land, with a further 2.7 billion ha possible for crop production. A total of 4.2 billion ha is suitable for rainfed agriculture. Such gross figures serve to illustrative the demands on natural resources, with land as an example in this case.
- This is not arable land but total land surface – 13.4 billion ha. Only 11% of this is estimated to be arable land, with a further 2.7 billion ha possible for crop production. A total of 4.2 billion ha is suitable for rainfed agriculture. Such gross figures serve to illustrative the demands on natural resources, with land as an example in this case.
- Human induced soil degradation has reached critical states in many regions of the world – hotspots are not only to be found in the so called developing world, but also in large parts of the united states and eastern Europe. However, soil degradation is especially severe in areas that already today have a very high population density, such as India and large parts of China – but as well the Sahel belt in Sub-Saharan Africa shows critical values.
- Positive: science increases yields Negative: research funding gap
- All types of food are needed – diversity of food Specifically, the world will need: 1 billion tonnes more cereals to 2050 1 billion tonnes dairy products each year 460 million tonnes meat each year
- The Animal Bioscience Program addresses genetics, genomics, epidemiology and diagnostics of livestock species (cattle, pigs, camel, sheep, poultry and goats), some specific diseases (Trypanosomiasis, East Coast Fever, African swine fever, Peste des Petits Ruminant) and some categories of disease particularly Zoonotic diseases and emerging infectious diseases. The bulk of the research is done in Africa and has the potential to impact the rest of the world, supporting the development of strategies for control and eradication of transboundary diseases, enhancing animal productivity and improving food and nutritional security.
- Financing of development integrating all sources
- Understanding behavior and identifying effective interventions are complex and iterative processes In an approach that incorporates the psychological and social aspects of decision making, the intervention cycle looks different. The resources devoted to definition and diagnosis, as well as to design, are greater. The implementation period tests several interventions, each based on different assumptions about choice and behavior. One of the interventions is adapted and fed into a new round of definition, diagnosis, design, implementation, and testing. The process of refinement continues after the intervention is scaled up
- human decision making Adam Smith (1759, 1776) – how we behave John Maynard Keynes Gunnar Myrdal Herbert Simon F. A. Hayek Albert Hirschman However: Paul Samuelson Milton Friedman ignore psychological factors three principles of human decision making: thinking automatically thinking socially thinking with mental models
- Development professionals “While the goal of development is to end poverty, development professionals are not always good at predicting how poverty shapes mindsets. The WDR 2015 team administered a randomized survey to examine judgment and decision making among World Bank staff. Although 42 percent of Bank staff predicted that most poor people in Nairobi, Kenya, would agree with the statement that “vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization,” only 11 percent of the poor people sampled (defined in this case as the bottom third of the wealth distribution in that city) actually agreed with the statement. Similarly, staff predicted that many more poor residents of Jakarta, Indonesia, and Lima, Peru, would express feelings of helplessness and lack of control over their future than actually did, according to the WDR 2015 team survey. This finding suggests that development professionals may assume that poor individuals may be less autonomous, less responsible, less hopeful, and less knowledgeable than they in fact are. Beliefs like these about the context of poverty shape policy choices. It is important to check mental models of poverty against reality.”