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The Future of DSM Programs: EE + DER
1. icf.com
we are
3 1 O c t o b e r 2 0 1 8
EE Lighting the Way
Presented at the 2017 ACEEE National Conference
on Energy Efficiency as a Resource
Patty Cook, Sr. Vice President
Haider Khan, Fellow/Director
2. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
ICF’s Energy Practice
Leading Edge Analytics
Premier DSM Consultants in
North America
Award-winning Customer Engagement
Comprehensive Experience for
Complex “Future Utility” Issues
2
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
Power
Markets
Strategy &
Regulatory
Support
Fuels
Markets
Distributed
Energy
Resources
Grid
Modernization
Customer
Engagement &
Recruitment
Demand Side
Management
Implementation
Experience Driven Insights | Analytics
3. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy Efficiency is an Effective
Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
Then Now
4. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy Efficiency Lighting
the Way to an Integrated Grid
4
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
Energy efficiency is competitive against zero
marginal cost resources
Energy efficiency measures can be tailored to
meet grid needs (both local and system)
Energy efficiency can improve the economics
and grid performance of other DER
5. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy efficiency is competitive against
zero marginal cost resources
EE is the cheapest DER (avg 2.4 cents/kwh):
Unlike storage or DR there is no incremental cost to operate
Proven track record of success in commercial and residential markets
Mature technology and measures are relatively persistent
No customer opt-out unlike DR
Very low equipment failures unlike storage
5
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
6. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Value of DER – Avoided Costs and Benefits
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DER Output Characteristics play an
important role in determining the Value
of DERs
Energy Efficiency
High energy and capacity value per kW
Lower availability/potential
Solar PV
Low utilization (capacity factor)
Lower capacity and energy value
High hosting capacity/availability
Demand Response and Energy Storage
Capacity products
Very low energy value (only arbitrage for energy storage)
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
7. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy efficiency measures can be
tailored to meet grid needs
Naturally location specific and lends
itself to targeted programs
Measures can be selected to address
specific temporal grid needs during
the day
However, need to address the M&V
and deemed reductions as traditional
approaches are insufficient for grid
purposes
Meter-based savings approaches/P4P
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System
Capacity
Need
Assessment
DER
Portfolio
Optimization
Program
Implementation
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
8. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Schwartz Creek: DER Demand Reduction
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-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Residential Refrigerator Residential Air Conditioning Residential Load Switch Residential TOU Commercial Air Conditioning Commercial Window Film
Commercial VFD HVAC Fans Commercial Effcient Lighting Commercial Refrigeration Commercial DayLighting Sensor Commercial Dishwasher Commercial PV
Commercial Battery Storage Commercial EMS Traffic Signals Load Relief Desired
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
9. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 9
Top Peak Reduction Measures:
Residential & Commercial
ResidentialTOU
ResidentialLoadSwitch
CommercialEMS
ResidentialRefrigerator
CommercialEffcientLighting
CommercialDayLightingSensor
CommercialBatteryStorage
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 300 700 1,000 1,400 1,700
CostofSavings($/kW)
Savings Potential (kW)
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
10. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy efficiency can improve the economics
and grid performance of other DER
Energy efficiency combined with
energy storage can improve the
overall cost performance of
storage alone
Energy efficiency combined with
PV results in greater annual
energy and peak demand savings
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Dispatch Block
Hosting Capacity
1 10:00 am to 1:00 pm
2 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm
3 10:00 am to 4:00 pm
Dispatch
Block Load Relief
1 6:00 pm to 9:00 pm
2 9:00 pm to 12:00 am
3 6:00 pm to 12:00 am
Case Study:
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
11. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
EE plus Storage: Evening Load Relief
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-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Residential Refrigerator Commercial Battery Storage Load Relief Desired
Product designed to avoid
hosting capacity impacts
from excess solar and
provide evening load relief
between 6:00 pm and 12:00
am
Battery charged “for free”
from efficiency savings and
discharged at evening peak
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
12. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Energy efficiency measures
Solar PV and behind the meter residential energy storage options
Program location
Cost structure (Fixed or TOU)
Simulate and calculate the savings for different measure packages
Constrain the measure package and evaluate the criteria
Re-stimulate if criteria are not met
Locational optimal measure package (potential combination of EE
+ PV + ES)
Potential customer savings using the optimal measure package
Utility cost-effectiveness metric
DER Optimization: Example
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OUTPUTS
PROCESS
INPUTS
Optimization Framework Optimized DER (EE + PV)
Program Design Savings
Customer Savings
(NPV – 25Years – 3% discount)
$7,535 (TX) $4,995 (MD)
Cost to Benefit Ratio (PAC)
1:5 (TX) 1:5 (MD)
Annual Energy Savings (kWh)
6,671 (TX) 4,332 (MD)
Peak Demand Savings (kW)
1.14 (TX) 0.77 (MD)
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
13. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose. 13
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
15. A portfolio of diverse resources – including EE – is the
most economical way to achieve reliability
For benefits and grid services to be realized, DER
deployment must be structured – both temporally and
locationally
AMI data, connected devices and the IoT will allow
greater actionable information about
consumption/management to realize benefits
DSM programs of the future can be designed to address
both energy efficiency and peak load goals – interactive
load management will be key (manage the ducklings!)
Aligning pricing, programs, and procurement to hosting
capacity and locational value is essential
Energy
Efficiency is a
Key Firm
Resource in a
More
Distributed
Future
EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
16. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
References
Electricity 2030 – Trends and Tasks for the Coming Years, October 2017, CAISO;
http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Electricity2030-
TrendsandTasksfortheComingYears.pdf
The Value in Distributed Energy: It’s All About Location, Location, Location;
https://www.icf.com/resources/white-papers/2015/value-in-distributed-energy
Quantifying the Locational Value of DERs;
https://www.icf.com/resources/webinars/2017/quantifying-the-locational-value-of-ders
DER Optimization: Cost-effectiveness Utility Solutions with Energy Efficiency, PV and
Storage; https://www.icf.com/resources/white-papers/2016/der-optimization-cost-
effective-utility-solutions
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EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments
17. ICF proprietary and confidential. Do not copy, distribute, or disclose.
Thank you
patty.cook@icf.com
haider.khan@icf.com
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EE Lighting the Way
EE is an Effective Alternative to Traditional Grid Investments