Monitoring and Evaluation Problem Tree Analysis

1. PME 501 LECTURE # 5
PROGRAM TREE ANAYSIS
Prof Lawrence Ikamari
Population Studies and Research Institute,
University of Nairobi, likamari@uonbi.ac.ke
16 October 2019
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2. Problem Analysis
 Refers to analyzing and documenting the causes and
effects of the problem to be addressed by the proposed
project or program
 What are the main causes and effects /manifestation
of the problem?
 What practitioners think they know about the situation
 what they need to find out from evidence for the
analysis to be complete
 It encourages practitioners to take a deeper look at
causes, possible effects & ways to address the
problem/situation most effectively
 The main tool for analysis is the Problem tree
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3. Problem Analysis
 Refers to analyzing and documenting the causes
and effects of the problem to be addressed by the
proposed project or program
 What are the main causes and effects
/manifestations of the problem?
What practitioners think they know about the
situation?
What is the relevant theoretical and
empirical evidence (from the literature
review) for the analysis to be complete
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4. Problem Tree
The problem Tree is tool for analyzing and
documenting a problem:
 Core problem
 direct causes, such as knowledge, motivation, and
skills
 indirect causes, such as access to materials and
services
 underlying causes, such as perceived norms and
actual social norms
 Effects/ manifestations of the problems
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5. 5
Problem
Consequences/effe
cts
Main
Causes
Problem Tree

6. Problem Tree analysis
 Helps find solutions by mapping out the
anatomy of the problem:
 It looks at causes /determinants (downstream) and
(upstream) at the consequences/effects
 direct causes, such as knowledge, motivation, and
skills
 indirect causes, such as access to materials and
services
 underlying causes, such as perceived norms and actual
social norms
 Effects or consequences of the problem
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7. Problem tree - Advantages
 Real, present issues - rather than apparent,
future or past issues are dealt with & identified
 The problem can be broken down into
manageable & definable chunks. This enables a
clearer prioritisation of which problems or issues
are important & this in turn focuses objectives &
makes influencing more effective;
 There is more understanding of the problem & its
often interconnected and even contradictory
causes.
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8. Problem tree - Advantages
 It identifies the constituent issues and
arguments, and can help establish who are the
political actors and processes at each stage;
 It can help establish what further information,
evidence or resources are needed to make a
strong case, or build a convincing proposed
solution;
 The process of analysis often helps build a
shared sense of understanding, purpose and
action
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9. Problem analysis: tool that
helps to:
 determine real as opposed to apparent needs
 analyse the existing situation and identify the
underlying causes of problems
 Identify potential constraints
 ensure buy-in, informed decision making &
teamwork as potential solution are discovered
 Identify the size of the problem and the likely
resources needed to tackle it
 Identify and analyse a number of alternative
solutions
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10. Problem analysis- steps
 ProbIem identification/formulation
 Problem tree analysis: cause-effect
 Objectives analysis:
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11. Problem tree – Define focal
problem, causes and effects
 Problem - Outbreak of cholera in X county
 Causes – immediate- Poor sanitary condition,
Contaminated water suply, Unhygienic health
practices & food preparation; Underlying -Open
pit latrines, Poor maintenance of water mains ,
Flooding in urban areas, Lack of knowledge, Low
levels of income
 Effects- Increased Morbidity and mortality
Increased demand on health services,
reduced productivity
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12. Objectives analysis
Formulation of the desired future situation
 the translation of the negative situations in the
problem tree into a realised positive state (the
objectives) for example, 'low uptake of ANC
services' is converted into 'improved uptake of
ANC services’;
 verification of the hierarchy of objectives;
 visualisation of means-end relationships in a
diagram
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13. Why a Problem
Tree?
Objective Tree
Overall objectives
Project Purpose
Results
Problem Tree
Effects
Focal problem
Causes

14. Solution Tree
Solutions provided
by program/project
Vision/purpose of
the program/project
Effects of the
program/project
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15. Objective tree analysis:
Transform each problem statement to
an objective
 Ends/overall bjectives-Reduced demand on
health services, Productivity restored, Decreased
Morbidity and mortality
 Purpose- Eliminate Outbreak of cholera in KK
county
 Means/Results- Sanitary conditions improved,
Portable H2O supplied in target areas, Pit latrines
improved, Maintenance of water mains improved,
Flooding control measures implemented, Health
education in target communities, Sewer
maintenace improved
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16. Alternative
Analysis/clustering
 The purpose of the alternative analysis is to
identify possible alternative options, to assess
their feasibility and agree upon one strategy for
action
 Use a criteria to analyse which objectives
should be central to the activity design
 Differing 'means-ends' ladders are Identied as
possible alternative options or activity
components.
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17. Analysis of strategy
 • Divide the objective tree into clusters
(clustering)
 • Select the clusters which will be included in
the intervention (scoping)
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18. Selecting the Activity Strategy
 Assess feasibility of the different alternatives &
select one as the activity strategy.
 In selecting the most viable alternative a series
of criteria should be developed and used.
These could include: costs; benefits to
particular groups, e.g. the 'poverty focus' of the
activity; the probability of achieving project
objectives; the social risks and costs; and the
assumptions made.
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19. Activity Strategy – others
criteria
 Social: Distribution of costs & benefits, gender
issues, socio-cultural constraints, local
involvement & motivation;
 Environmental: Environmental effects,
environmental costs versus benefits.
 Technical: Appropriateness, use of local
resources, market suitability.
 Institutional: Capacity, capability, technical ass.
 Economic. Econ. returns, cost effectiveness
 Financial:. Costs, financial sustainability, foreign
exchange needs
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20. An another example
 An example from the work I did recently with
the Young Adolescents Project (YAP) Kenya

21. Low health and socio-
economic wellbeing among
YAs
Drug abuse
Early sexual
debut
Poor school
performance
Early marriage
Poor class attendance
Drop out from school
leading to low transition
rate
to secondary school
Lack of supportive school
and community
environment
Lack of knowledge of family
planning, HIV, STI
ASRH topics not
part of school
curriculum
Lack of proper
guidance and
counselling
Poor/ lack of knowledge of
children rights and life skills
Lack of access to ASRH
services
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YAP Kenya
Problem Tree

22. YAs improved health and socio-economic wellbeing
No drug abuse
No early
sexual debut
Good school
performance
No early marriage
Good class attendance
No drop out from school
leading to high transition
rate
to secondary school
Have supportive school
and community
environment
knowledgeable about family
planning, HIV/AIDS, STI
ASRH topics part
of school
curriculum
Proper guidance and
counselling provided
Knowledgeable about
children rights
Have access to ASRH
services
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YAP Kenya
Solution Tree

23. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
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24. Exercise
 Divide the students into teams of 5 members
 Let each work on a chosen problem situation
 Identify the causes
 Identify the effects/consequences
 And then propose the sotutions, puropse and
objectives
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25. Exercise
 Divide the students into teams of 5 members
 Let each work on a chosen problem situation
 Identify the causes
 Identify the effects/consequences
 And then propose the sotutions, puropse and
objectives
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