Traffic Analysis of The Culver Road and East Main Street Intersection

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Road traffic is a multi-billion dollar drain on the US economy. Using machine learning, trend analysis, and Bayesian statistics, we explored patterns and causes of traffic at the intersection of Culver Road and East Main Street in Rochester, NY. This analysis was presented at the 2015 UP-Stat competition in Geneseo, NY.

Data & Analytics

Traffic Analysis of The Culver Road and
East Main Street Intersection
Three Degrees of Freedom
Nicholas Yager, Tom Hartvigsen, and Matthew Taylor
SUNY Geneseo

Background
Traffic Analysis
Trend Analysis
Pattern Detection
Bayesian Analysis
Recommendations

How long do people wait?
What conditions cause congestion?

Level of Service
A qualitative measure used to
relate the quality of traffic service.

Level of Service Vehicle Control Delay (Sec.)
A ≤ 10
B 10 - 20
C 20 - 35
D 35 - 55
E 55 - 80
F ≥ 80
via 2010 Highway Capacity Manual

Fundamental Diagram of traffic flow
A diagram that depicts the relationship
between traffic volume (vehicles/hour) and
traffic density (vehicles/mile).

Pattern Classification
CLARA Clustering
Pattern Similarity
Correlation

CLARA Clustering
An implementation of K-medoids
clustering for large datasets.

Bayes’ Theorem allows us to assign a probability of an
event occurring given evidence.

p(C|T) = p(T|C)*p(C)
p(T)
Probability of
Congestion Given
Time
Probability of That
Time Occurring
Probability That Time
Occurring Given
Congestion
Probability of
Congestion Occurring

Turn Culver Into a Two-Lane Avenue
Restrict the Number of Commercial Zones
Adjust Traffic Light Timing

Works Cited
1. City of Rochester, Property Information Application. http://maps.cityofrochester.gov/propinfo/.
2. City of Rochester, Traffic Volume Map. 2014. http://www2.monroecounty.gov/files/dot/pdfs/City-
adt-map-through-2014.pdf
3. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Highway Capacity Manual 2010. 5th
Edition, 2010.
4. Flynn MR, Kasimov AR, Nave J, Rosales RR, Seibold B. Traffic Modeling - Phantom Traffic
Jams and Traveling Jamitons
5. Piccoli B, Tosin A. A Review of Continuum Mathematical Models of Vehicular Traffic.
Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science. 2009. pp 9729-9749.
6. Goatin P. The Aw-Rascle traffic flow model with phase transitions.. 2005.

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