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European Flight
Restrictions May
Inhibit International
Propagation of Ebola
Nicholas A. Yager, Matthew D. Taylor,
Dr. Christopher Leary, Dr. Gregg Hartvigsen
Departments of Biology and Mathematics
SUNY Geneseo
Can flight restrictions prevent
the spread of Ebola?
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
“On 26 December 2013, a 2-year-old boy in the remote Guinean village of
Meliandou fell ill with a mysterious illness characterized by fever, black
stools, and vomiting. He died 2 days later.” WHO Global Alert and Response2
Ebola Virus Disease
(EVD) is a filovirus that
typically afflicts central
Africa. There are
different strains where
rates of mortality range
from 50%-90%.
"It is the world’s first Ebola
epidemic, and it’s spiraling
out of control."
Dr. Tom Frieden
Director of the CDC3
September 2nd, 2014
“...it is imperative that the FAA take
every available precaution in
preventing additional cases from
arriving in the United States. As you
may be aware, several African nations
have already restricted or banned air
travel to countries with confirmed
cases of the Ebola virus.”
Ted Cruz
US Senator (R-TX) 4
“... for every complex problem,
there’s a solution that’s quick,
simple, and wrong.”
Dr. Tom Frieden
Director of the CDC5
October 13th, 2014
Photo courtesy of Jessica McGowan
Can flight restrictions prevent
the spread of Ebola?
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
Metapopulation Network Model
A network of multiple subpopulations
connected by a means of transportation.
Flight
City
Airport
City
Airport
S E I R
β
ε γ
β - Disease transmissible contact rate
ε - Incubation rate
γ - Recovery rate
The Model
Flight Information
Demographic
Information
Disease Parameters
Route Data
Results
Flight Information
Demographic
Information
Disease Parameters
Route Data
● 528,000 Raw Flights
○ 82,000 Unique Flights
● Information Included:
○ Origin
○ Destination
○ Time of Departure
○ ICAO Plane Type
Flight Information
Demographic
Information
Disease Parameters
Route Data
● Airport Locations
○ GPS Coordinates
● Wake Turbulence Class (WTC)
● Haversine Distance
○ Useful for estimating flight time
Flight Information
Demographic
Information
Disease Parameters
Route Data
● NASA’s Gridded Population of the
World
○ Census data
○ Associates GPS coordinates with
population estimates
Flight Information
Demographic
Information
Disease Parameters
Route Data
● Current values from literature for the
2014 West African Outbreak
● Parameters for past outbreaks used for
validation
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
Parameters 1995 Congo 2014 West Africa
β – Rate of disease
transmissible contact
0.38 0.30
ε – Incubation rate 0.1728 0.1667
γ – Recovery rate 0.1887 0.10
R0
: The basic reproductive number.
The number of individuals exposed by a
single infectious individual in an otherwise
susceptible population.
Our model captures the
transmission dynamics of Ebola.
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
A
B
C
D
Outbreak
The Model
Model Validation
Results
Future Applications
Future Applications
Prediction
Simulation
Analysis
Future Applications
Prediction
Simulation
Analysis
Future Applications
Prediction
Simulation
Analysis
Future Applications
Prediction
Simulation
Analysis
Acknowledgements
FlightAware
Openflights
NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
R, RStudio, and the R Community
Python, the Python Community
Dr. Hartvigsen and Dr. Leary
Patty Hamilton-Rodgers
BIG (Biomathematics Innovation Group)
Works Cited
1. Gire, Stephen K., Augustine Goba, Kristian G. Andersen, Rachel SG Sealfon, Daniel J. Park, Lansana Kanneh, Simbirie
Jalloh et al. "Genomic surveillance elucidates Ebola virus origin and transmission during the 2014 outbreak." Science
2014; 345(6202): 1369-1372.
2. "Ground Zero in Guinea: The Outbreak Smoulders – Undetected – for More than 3 Months." WHO. Accessed April 8, 2015.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/ebola-6-months/guinea/en/.
3. Haglage, Abby. "CDC: 'Window Is Closing' on Containing Ebola." The Daily Beast. Accessed April 8, 2015. http://www.
thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/02/cdc-window-is-closing-on-containing-ebola.html.
4. “Roll Call: Ted Cruz Asks FAA About Ebola Flight Ban.” Ted Cruz. October 2nd, 2014. Accessed January 19th, 2015.
5. "CDC Director: Why I Don’t Support a Travel Ban to Combat Ebola Outbreak." Our Global Voices. Accessed April 8, 2015.
http://blogs.cdc.gov/global/2014/10/13/cdc-director-why-i-dont-support-a-travel-ban-to-combat-ebola-outbreak/.

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European Flight Restrictions May Inhibit International Propagation of Ebola

Editor's Notes

  1. Matt
  2. Matt
  3. Matt
  4. Nick
  5. Nick Little did his fellow villagers know, this young boy would start a chain of events that lead to the largest Ebola epidemic in recorded history.
  6. Nick
  7. Matt Lack of containment Specific individuals in other countries News media speculative frenzy.
  8. Matt
  9. Matt
  10. Matt
  11. Nick
  12. Nick
  13. Nick
  14. Nick
  15. Nick We created a model to simulate the international spread of ebola propagated by individuals traveling using air transportation. Some flight information from FlightAware Route data is real data from OpenFlights Emphasize that it is all real.
  16. Nick We created a model to simulate the international spread of ebola propagated by individuals traveling using air transportation. Some flight information from FlightAware Route data is real data from OpenFlights Emphasize that it is all real.
  17. Nick We created a model to simulate the international spread of ebola propagated by individuals traveling using air transportation. Some flight information from FlightAware Route data is real data from OpenFlights Emphasize that it is all real.
  18. Nick We created a model to simulate the international spread of ebola propagated by individuals traveling using air transportation. Some flight information from FlightAware Route data is real data from OpenFlights Emphasize that it is all real.
  19. Nick We created a model to simulate the international spread of ebola propagated by individuals traveling using air transportation. Some flight information from FlightAware Route data is real data from OpenFlights Emphasize that it is all real.
  20. Matt
  21. Matt
  22. Matt
  23. Matt
  24. Matt
  25. Nick
  26. Matt
  27. Matt
  28. Nick
  29. Nick
  30. Nick
  31. Nick
  32. Nick
  33. Nick
  34. Nick