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Incremental lift testing: Determine the true impact of your ad campaigns


Published on

NRF NXT 2019
July 23, 2019
Noah Freeman, CTO and Co-Founder, Social Fulcrum
Andrew Krebs-Smith, CEO and Founder, Social Fulcrum

Published in: Retail
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Incremental lift testing: Determine the true impact of your ad campaigns

  1. 1. Noah Freeman, CTO & Co-Founder Social Fulcrum July 23, 2019 SESSION: Incremental Lift Testing: Determine the True Impact of Your Ad Campaigns Deep Dive
  2. 2. 2 Lift Testing: An Example
  3. 3. What % is real? True ROI 30% 3x 100% 4x 50% 3.5x Audience In-Platform ROI Cart abandoners 10x New customers 4x Total 7x True ROI is above target, so increase total budgets Raw data tells us to move money to cart abandoners.... ...but real data says the opposite! Imagine knowing the real impact of each ad... 3 $ $
  4. 4. Who Can Lift Test 4
  5. 5. 5 Lift testing: available for online & in-store purchases Purchase location Online In-store Time period Raw ROI Lift-adjusted ROI Raw ROI Lift-adjusted ROI Pre-2015 ✓ 2015-2016 ✓ ✓ ✓ 2017-now ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
  6. 6. Why We Lift Test 6
  7. 7. Attribution tells you if an ad preceded a purchase, NOT if it caused the purchase 7 Saw ad Made purchase Did the pixel give credit? Did the ad cause the purchase? Monday 9am Tuesday 8am Yes Yes! Monday 9am No purchase No No! Monday 9am 8 days later No Yes - but 8 days later Monday 9am Tuesday 8am Yes No - would have bought anyway
  8. 8. Lift Based Attribution Time Based Attribution Lift testing tells us what % of the reported purchases are caused by the ad 8 Lift testing lets us give correct, partial credit to purchases across a huge time window
  9. 9. How We Lift Test 9
  10. 10. 20% Control StartingAudience See real ad 10 purchases per 1K audience 80% Exposure Incremental Lift = 7 Purchases See charity ad 3 purchases per 1K audience ■ Before: 100% of credit for 7 days of purchases ■ After: 70% of credit for 90 days of purchases ■ Outcome: More accurate, higher ROI, more scale 10 To run a lift test, you show real ads to your exposure group, and fake ads to a control group
  11. 11. 11 To do a great test, you need to get a few things right 03 02 05 01 04 Design the test to give you audience-level lift results Make sure you can measure ALL purchases, anywhere Use good software, or big control groups Make sure your control group is dark for 1-2 months pre-test Find the right partner • Most systems give only “whole-test” level incrementality • Incrementality by audience is better • Customers wander through your funnels in 90 days • If you can’t measure all your checkouts, data suffers • Control groups cost money and customers • Accurate, small control groups are only possible with great third-party software • Customers who switch to control ads have “purchase momentum” from previous real ads • This momentum overstates control group purchases, and shows incorrect low incrementality results • Lift tests: easy to try, hard to do well • You need to choose the right partner
  12. 12. 12 You can choose from many partner types Ad platforms Pro: cheapest choice, simple setup Con: perception of bias, HUGE control groups, no audience-level data Example: Facebook’s “Conversion Lift Test” Big measure vendors Pro: You may already have a contract in place Con: Expensive, no audience-level data, long delays on reporting Example: ODC Measure boutiques Pro: Granular data, small control groups Con: None Example: Social Fulcrum
  13. 13. What Results Do We Typically See? 13
  14. 14. 14 Lift tests show incrementality between 25% and 95%, leading to real ROIs from 3-25x Ad type % of reported revenues that are real Prospecting 90-95% Retargeting (Site Traffic) 25-35% Retention/reactivation (Past Customers) 35-45% Advertiser Real ROI 5-10x low scale 5-15x high scale 3-5x 15-25x
  15. 15. ● Lift testing tells you the real impact of your digital ads ● Recent tests for retailers have shown tremendous ROI ● You need to choose the right partner to meet your needs and deliver the details that are important to you Now what? 15
  16. 16. Q & A 16
  17. 17. ● Do you ever doubt the results your platforms are reporting? Why? ● How have you dealt with this before? ● Have you run a lift test? How did it improve your decision-making? ● For those who have not run a lift test, how could lift testing help your business? Discussion questions 17