PowerPoint slides from a new CIR report titled, "Next-Generation Ethernet: From 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps and Beyond" In this report, CIR presents its view on where 400 GigE opportunities will be found for component makers, equipment firms and carriers. It focuses on demand from medium-to-large data centers, but also discusses how 400 GigE will play in metro networks and in WANs. Since 400 GigE will be a significant technological challenge, this report also discusses how the latest VCSEL, FEC and modulation technology will enable the new 400 GigE standard. Also covered are the likely module MSAs that will be used for 400 GigE. The report also provides a strategic assessment of firms that will be the key players in 400 GigE space. Firms discussed in this report include: Arista, Avago, Brocade, Cisco, Extreme Networks, Facebook, Finisar, Furukawa, Google, IBM, JDSU, Juniper, Molex, Netflix, Sumitomo, TE Connectivity, ULM Photonics, and VI Systems.

1. Next-Generation Ethernet from 100
Gbps to 400 Gbps and Beyond
November 2013

2. About CIR
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CIR has been providing market analysis to the optical networking business since
1985. We bring our experience and long history to the latest wave of optical
networking; networks operating up to the Terabit level and using the latest
protocol suites such as OTN.
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CIR reports provide both qualitative appraisals of the latest optical technologies
and quantitative analyses of their long-term revenue potential. Our analysis
takes into consideration diverse factors such as network topology, financial
results, real estate statistics, technology adoption patterns and pricing trends
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Companies rely on CIR reports and consulting services because the forecasts
are credible, the coverage is balanced and the insights are rock-solid. Leaders
of strategic planning, marketing, sales, engineering and finance make up CIR’s
user base. CIR also offers due diligence services to the financial community

3. Markets Covered by CIR
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Active Optical Cabling
Optical Interconnects
Silicon Photonic
400G and Terabit Networks
Next-Generation Access
Novel Fiber and Laser Technology
Mobile Backhaul
Visible Light Communications
PONs
Vehicular Ethernet

4. Next-Generation Ethernet from 100 Gbps to
400 Gbps and Beyond
Published by CIR in November 2013

5. About the Report
• Based on more than two decades of experience, CIR presents in
this report our view on how 400 GigE will be commercialized,
how the 400 GigE business case will be made, and where the
opportunities are to be found for carriers, equipment makers and
component makers.
• This report is designed for optical networking firms at the
equipment, subsystem and component levels of the Ethernet
value chain.
• The report contains a quantitative forecast over the next decade
for 400 GigE under several different scenarios, along with an
assessment of strategies of the firms that CIR believes will be the
key players in this space.

6. Goals of the 400 Gbps Ethernet Study Group
Item
Goal
MAC data rate
400 Gbps
Operation
mode
Full-duplex operation only
Frame
Ethernet frame format utilizing the Ethernet MAC and
preserving the minimum and maximum frame size of
current Ethernet MAC
Support of
other
standards
Appropriate support for OTN and optional support of
Energy Efficient Ether (EEE) for 400 GigE PHYs
Interconnect
Support of 400 Gbps Attachment Unit interfaces for
chip-to-chip and chip-to-module applications

7. Five Key Drivers for 400 GigE

8. Applications Driving Need for 400 GigE

9. Technology Issues for 400 GigE
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400 GigE will ultimately be based on an n x 100 Gbps format, while recent IEEE Ethernets
have been based on a n x 10 Gbps format. This presents technical challenges
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The CFP that evolved for 100 GigE will most probably find a role in 400 GigE too. But a
new MSA for 400 GigE is already appearing and it would be no surprise to see other MSAs
appear too.
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While NRZ is a very stable technology, there is a strong consensus that it won’t do as we
move beyond the second generation 400 GigE. Third Eventually 400 GigE will most
probably use PAM-4 for signal modulation.
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Copper will have a minimal role in 400 GigE, beyond some limited interconnect
applications
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FEC is likely to play an important role in the evolution of 400 GigE standards and
technologists developing the 400 Gbps can draw to some extent on the fairly mature.
However, there is no consensus on any specific FEC techniques or designs.

10. Ten Companies to Watch in 400 GigE

11. Plausible Market Growth Scenario for 400
GigE Port Revenues
Market Value ($ Million)
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

12. Other Related CIR Reports
• Revenue Opportunities For Optical
Interconnects: Market And Technology Forecast
– 2013-2020-Vol I
• Revenue Opportunities For Optical
Interconnects:market And Technology Forecast
- 2013 To 2020 Vol II
• Active Optical Cabling Markets: 2013 And
Beyond

13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME