Presentation to Ukraine Commodity Market Development Conference The author of the presentation: Warren Preston, US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

2. Sources of USDA Market Information
• Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS)
• Economic Research Service (ERS)
• Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
• National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
• World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
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4. World Agricultural Outlook Board
• Focal point for USDA market outlook
• Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs)
include analysts from across USDA
• Information for monthly World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) developed from multiple
data sources
• WASDE releases are market movers
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USDA Supply and Demand Forecasts
NASS
data
ICEC
&
lockup Monthly
WASDE
report
Market
USDA
• Monthly ERS and FAS
reports
• Forecasts for farm
income and food prices
• Policy analysis
• Farm program costs
Other
USDA
data
Data and info
from other
sources

6. Data Sources
• National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
– Production, stocks, prices, livestock numbers
• Other USDA agencies
– FAS attaché reports and analysis of foreign commodity developments, FAS export
sales, AMS Market News prices, FGIS export inspections, AMS livestock reports,
AMS milk marketing order information, FSA support purchase activity.
• Other government sources
– Bureau of Census for wheat mill grind, soybean crush, imports/exports
– Dept. of Energy (Energy Information Agency) for ethanol production
• Industry sources
– Corn Refiners Association
– Renewable Fuels Association
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7. Goals of USDA’s Outlook Information System
• Objectivity
–Provide accurate, reliable, and unbiased information
• Reliability
–Based on sound data and analysis
• Timeliness
–Fast flow to users
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8. The Estimation Process for the U.S. Balance Sheets
• Each month, the ICECs meet to estimate balance sheet items
• The process begins with economic models, tempered by policy changes both in the
United States and in other countries
• Expert judgment provides a reality check on economic models and has the final say
in determining USDA’s estimates
• Analytic results are derived, in many cases, using the latest data available from:
– NASS (area, production, prices, selected domestic use such as food use, industrial use, oilseed
crush, cotton consumption, and stocks);
– The U.S. Department of Commerce (trade data);
– FAS (export sales);
– AMS (transportation, prices, U.S. market reports);
– FGIS (export inspections)
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9. U.S. Crop Production Forecasts
vs.
Foreign Crop Production Estimates
• U.S. Crops
–U.S. production forecasts based on monthly surveys of
farmers and crops
• Foreign Crops
–Foreign crop production estimates involve greater judgment
–Most are not survey-based
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10. Related Roles of USDA in Futures Markets
• Quality grading and inspections
– Grade standards provide a uniform language for trade
– Includes weighing services and stowage inspections
• Acceptance services for futures contracts settled by physical
delivery
• Public price reporting used to compute indexes for cash
settlement of futures contracts
• Cooperation with CFTC
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11. Questions?
• wpreston@oce.usda.gov
• http://www.usda.gov/oce/
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