State of the Industry NMMA - 2018 LJA Annual Conference
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2018 LJA Annual Conference
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State of the Industry NMMA - 2018 LJA Annual Conference
- 1. State of the Recreational Boating Industry SARA ANGHEL, PRESIDENT, CANADA
- 5. A Truly American Industry source: NMMA
- 6. Outdoor Recreation is BIG Business An overlooked economic giant, outdoor recreation makes up ~2% of GDP, contributing $374 Billion each year Outdoor recreation exceeds such industries as mining and agriculture, which combined, have a lower contribution than outdoor recreation source: BEA
- 7. American Retail Spending on Boating $31 $35 $35 $33 $31 $28 $27 $29 $31 $31 $33 $35 $37 $39 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 USD(BILLIONS) source: NMMA
- 8. source: NMMA, Info-Link Retail Expenditure Estimates — $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 PRE-OWNED BOAT/ENGINE AFTERMARKET ACCESSORIES
- 9. Traditional Powerboat Retail Sales — 100 200 300 400 500 600 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 UNITSThousands 1980s Recession 911 Asian Financial Crisis Desert Storm Iraq War Great Recession source: Info-Link
- 10. Powerboat, PWC, and Sailboat Sales, New Versus Pre-owned source: Info-Link, Bonnier 910 969 955 941 958 982 988 174 190 200 219 239 256 267 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 UnitsThousands Preowned New
- 11. New Boat Retail Unit Sales 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousands Sailboat Powerboat source: Info-Link, Bonnier
- 12. New Powerboat Retail Unit Sales -7% -24% -27% -10% -2% 9% 5% 10% 10% 7% 5% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YOYChange source: Info-Link
- 13. 2017 Retail Unit Sales 2% 5% 8% 4% -1% 7% 9% 1% YOYChange High Unit Volume source: Info-link Low Unit Volume
- 14. Growth in Outboard Sales
- 15. Trends to Watch in 2018 1. Versatile family fun boats 2. Fishing Boats – 3-4% increase for saltwater, 1-2% for freshwater 3. Cruisers – Boats between 21-32 feet estimate gains of 9-10% in 2017 4. More boating experiences for new boaters
- 16. What Boating Requires to Grow Healthy Economy Job Creation Consumer Spending Housing Growth Consumer Confidence
- 17. U.S. Market Outlook U.S. GDP expected to grow 2-3% through 2020 5% growth in new powerboat sales in 2018 Gas prices remain at historical lows
- 18. Unemployment Rate: 3.8% - May 2018 U.S. Job Creation source: BLS
- 19. Consumer Confidence Index May-18, 124.5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 R12MAVERAGE 26 mo. 24 mo. 51 mo. 35 mo. 35 mo. 24 mo. 20 mo. 40 mo. 82 mo. 96 mo. 47 mo. 104 mo. Average duration from peak to valley: 33 mo. Average duration from valley to peak: 57 mo. source: The Conference Board
- 20. June 4, 2018, $2.85 $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 1/7/2013 1/7/2014 1/7/2015 1/7/2016 1/7/2017 1/7/2018 Regular,ConventionalWeeklyU.S. City Retail Gas Prices source: EIA
- 21. RV v. Boat Shipments source: NMMA, RVIA
- 22. source: ITR Economics Wholesale Forecasts 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 12MMA3MMA 12MMA 12MMA Forecast 3MMA QUARTERLY PRODUCTION (3MMA) ANNUAL PRODUCTION (12MMA) OUTLOOK MANAGEMENT NOTE 134.5 147.6 Production will rise through 2018 and subsequently decline through 2019, edging below the current levels. Rise will return in 2020. Conserve extra cash this year in anticipation of Production decline next year.
- 25. source: ISM, USITC, IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI 59.3 55.5 51.6 58.3 53.5 53.8 54.4 58.1 53.9 60.7 51.1 53.8 52.3 55.1 48.4 49.1 48.9 52.3 49.1 54.5 54.7 ContractionExpansion Top U.S. Boat Export Destinations (In Order) 50
- 27. 2016 Boating Participation source: QSA Research
- 28. 17 Million First-Time Boaters in 2016 First-time boaters are more likely than other active boaters to be: • Male (75% vs. 54%) • Hispanic (32% vs. 10%) • Lower income (Median incomes are $60,775 for first-time boaters and $102,925 for other active boaters) • Renters (58% vs. 25%) • Less likely to have a college degree or more (19% vs. 35%)
- 29. Paddlesports Participation 21.7 Million participants nationally 7 outings/year on average Continued YOY increasing participation rates source: ACA
- 30. = 75,000 15.8 MILLION BOATS IN USE source: NMMA
- 32. U.S. Boat Registrations 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Millions Source: USCG
- 33. 2016 U.S. Boat Registrations Outboard boats, 62.1% Sterndrive boats, 11.6% Inboard boats, 8.7% PWC, 9.5% Sailboats, 0.9% Other, 7.2% Source: USCG
- 34. About Those Registered Boats… Source: USCG, Foresight
- 35. source: USCG 40' and larger 1% 2016 Powerboat Registrations 1% of boats are 40’ and larger
- 37. Aging Boater Population 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18 to 19 25 to 29 35 to 39 45 to 49 55 to 59 65 to 69 75 to 79 85+ Age Range 2015 Boat Owner / FTB Age Distribution Current Owners First-time Buyers Avg. = 45yrs Avg. = 55yrs source: Info-Link
- 38. And Do What We Can to Keep Them T O D A Y FIRST-TIME Boat Buyers in 2005 (564,000) 54% 32% 14% Still own same boat source: Info-Link
- 39. Because It Pays Off * REPEAT Boat Buyers in 2005 (838,000) 38 % 35 % 27 % T O D A Y Still own same boat * And gets better with each subsequent boat purchase
- 40. Rising Student Debt Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
- 41. Reaching Future Boaters “Weekends on the water really bring us together. We’re creating all these great memories.” - The Vasquez Family