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State of the Industry NMMA - 2018 LJA Annual Conference
4.
Outdoor Recreation is BIG Business
An overlooked economic giant,
outdoor recreation makes up
~2% of GDP, contributing
$374 Billion each year
Outdoor recreation exceeds
such industries as mining and
agriculture, which combined,
have a lower contribution than
outdoor recreation
source: BEA
13.
Trends to Watch in 2018
1. Versatile family fun boats
2. Fishing Boats – 3-4% increase for saltwater, 1-2% for freshwater
3. Cruisers – Boats between 21-32 feet estimate gains of 9-10% in 2017
4. More boating experiences for new boaters
14.
What Boating Requires to Grow
Healthy Economy
Job Creation
Consumer Spending
Housing Growth
Consumer
Confidence
15.
U.S. Market Outlook
U.S. GDP
expected to
grow 2-3%
through
2020
5% growth
in new
powerboat
sales in
2018
Gas prices
remain at
historical
lows
16.
Unemployment Rate: 3.8% - May 2018
U.S. Job Creation
source: BLS
17.
Consumer Confidence Index
May-18, 124.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160 '68
'70
'72
'74
'76
'78
'80
'82
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
'14
'16
R12MAVERAGE
26 mo.
24 mo.
51 mo. 35 mo.
35 mo.
24 mo.
20 mo.
40 mo.
82 mo.
96 mo.
47 mo.
104 mo.
Average duration from peak to valley: 33 mo.
Average duration from valley to peak: 57 mo.
source: The Conference Board
18.
June 4, 2018,
$2.85
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
1/7/2013 1/7/2014 1/7/2015 1/7/2016 1/7/2017 1/7/2018
Regular,ConventionalWeeklyU.S. City Retail Gas Prices
source: EIA
20.
source: ITR Economics
Wholesale Forecasts
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
12MMA3MMA
12MMA 12MMA Forecast 3MMA
QUARTERLY PRODUCTION
(3MMA)
ANNUAL PRODUCTION
(12MMA)
OUTLOOK
MANAGEMENT NOTE
134.5
147.6
Production will rise through
2018 and subsequently
decline through 2019,
edging below the current
levels. Rise will return in
2020.
Conserve extra cash this
year in anticipation of
Production decline next
year.
25.
2016 Boating Participation
source: QSA Research
26.
17 Million First-Time Boaters in 2016
First-time boaters are more likely than other active boaters to be:
• Male (75% vs. 54%)
• Hispanic (32% vs. 10%)
• Lower income (Median incomes are $60,775 for first-time boaters and
$102,925 for other active boaters)
• Renters (58% vs. 25%)
• Less likely to have a college degree or more (19% vs. 35%)
27.
Paddlesports Participation
21.7 Million participants
nationally
7 outings/year on
average
Continued YOY
increasing participation
rates
source: ACA
28.
= 75,000
15.8 MILLION BOATS IN USE
source: NMMA
35.
Aging Boater Population
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18 to 19 25 to 29 35 to 39 45 to 49 55 to 59 65 to 69 75 to 79 85+
Age Range
2015 Boat Owner / FTB Age Distribution
Current Owners First-time Buyers
Avg. = 45yrs
Avg. = 55yrs
source: Info-Link
36.
And Do What We Can to Keep Them
T
O
D
A
Y
FIRST-TIME
Boat Buyers
in 2005
(564,000)
54%
32%
14%
Still own
same boat
source: Info-Link
37.
Because It Pays Off *
REPEAT
Boat
Buyers in
2005
(838,000)
38
%
35
%
27
%
T
O
D
A
Y
Still
own
same
boat
* And gets better with each subsequent boat purchase
38.
Rising Student Debt
Source: NY Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
39.
Reaching Future Boaters
“Weekends on the water really
bring us together. We’re creating
all these great memories.”
- The Vasquez Family