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Investing in 2008,
Opportunities and Challenges

SYARIAH MUTUAL FUND


      Jakarta, 12 December 2007
PERKEMBANGAN AWAL

   Indonesia
    • Tahun 1997, Penerbitan Reksa Dana
      berbasis Syariah pertama di Indonesia
    • Tahun 2000, Peluncuran Jakarta Islamic
      Index (JII)
         Daftar 30 Saham berkategori Syariah
    • Tahun 2002, Penerbitan Obligasi Syariah
      oleh PT Indosat Tbk
         Tingkat Imbal Hasil 16,75%

                    2
PERKEMBANGAN SAAT INI

Daftar Efek Syariah (Kep-386/BL/2007)
  • meliputi 20 (dua puluh) Efek Syariah
    dengan jenis sukuk/obligasi syariah,
  • 164 (seratus enam puluh empat) Efek
    Syariah dengan jenis saham yang
    dikeluarkan oleh Emiten dan
  • 5 (lima) Efek Syariah dengan jenis saham
    Perusahaan Publik dan 3 (tiga) Emiten
    Delisting.


               3
PERKEMBANGAN
                   REKSA DANA SYARIAH

            Perkem bangan Jum lah Reksa Dana Syariah                                  Perkembangan AUM Reksa Dana Syariah
                                                                                                  (Rp. m iliar)
25
                                                                       1800
                                                             22                                                                           1670.28

                                                   20                  1600
20
                                                                       1400


                                           15                          1200
15

                                                                       1000
                                    11
                                                                       800
10                                                                                                                              662.71

                                                                       600                                             555.57


                                                                       400                                    336.83
5                           4

      2      2       2                                                 200
                                                                              24.56   22.45   23.32   44.94

0                                                                        0
     2000   2001    2002    2003   2004    2005    2006   2007 (Nov)          2000    2001    2002    2003     2004     2005     2006    2007 (Nov)




                                                  4
PERKEMBANGAN
  REKSA DANA SYARIAH
                                                              % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri
  % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri                            Tahun 2007 (Fixed Income)
             Tahun 2007


                                                                        1.37%




                                             Industri                                                Industri
                                             Syariah                                                 Syariah




                                                                             98.63%




% AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri                          % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri
       Tahun 2007 (Equity)                                          Tahun 2007 (Balanced)



         2.22%                                                       4.56%




                                                   Industri                                          Industri
                                                   Syariah                                           Syariah



             97.78%                                                             95.44%




                                         5
REKSA DANA PENDAPATAN
    TETAP SYARIAH


                                   1 hr      1 mg    1 bl    1 th

  Reksa Dana Pendapatan Tetap
  Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah    (0.01)    0.09    0.82   12.25
  Reksa Dana Syariah                 0.10     0.02    1.46   13.91


  Data as of Oct 30, 2007
  source: Infovesta




                            6
REKSA DANA PENDAPATAN
    TETAP SYARIAH
   Keterbatasan instrumen “fixed income”
    • Total nilai emisi obligasi syariah
          sebesar IDR 1.949 T, atau
          sebesar 3.5% dari obligasi korporasi di Indonesia
    • Belum ada instrumen obligasi pemerintah sebagai
      acuan (risk free proxy)
   Likuiditas pasar yang rendah
   Risk Premium yang lebih tinggi akibat risiko
    likuiditas yang lebih tinggi



                       7
REKSA DANA SAHAM &
 CAMPURAN SYARIAH

                                 1 hr      1 mg    1 bl    1 th    3 th

Reksa Dana Campuran
Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah    (0.26)    2.22    7.88   35.59    95.43
Reksa Dana Syariah                (0.32)    3.95   12.50   36.94   109.66

Reksa Dana Saham
Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah    (0.29)    3.80   12.93
Reksa Dana Syariah                (0.13)    5.74   16.72


Data as of Oct 30, 2007
source: Infovesta




                          8
JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX
  No.   Saham   Perusahaan                       Market Capitalization     %
   27   TLKM    Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk        221,759,992,080,000  19.66%
    4   ASII    Astra International Tbk             115,378,126,449,000  10.23%
    8   BUMI    Bumi Resources Tbk                  114,483,600,000,000  10.15%
   12   INCO    International Nickel Ind .Tbk        93,699,674,129,600   8.31%
   21   PGAS    Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk            74,454,127,202,000   6.60%
   30   UNVR    Unilever Indonesia Tbk               50,739,500,000,000   4.50%
   16   ISAT    Indosat Tbk                          49,720,491,525,000   4.41%
    2   ANTM    Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk          42,684,607,381,250   3.78%
    1   AALI    Astra Agro Lestari Tbk               40,628,421,000,000   3.60%
   25   SMGR    Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk           34,402,816,000,000   3.05%
   29   UNTR    United Tractors Tbk                  31,225,119,645,000   2.77%
   15   INTP    Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk       28,713,607,252,200   2.55%
   22   PTBA    Tambang Batubara Bukit AsamTbk       27,419,169,015,000   2.43%
   13   INDF    Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk           24,790,996,125,000   2.20%
   28   TRUB    Truba Alam Manunggal E. Tbk          20,967,016,320,000   1.86%
   20   MEDC    Medco Energi International Tbk       17,328,747,540,000   1.54%
   23   SMAR    SMART Tbk                            16,802,331,191,100   1.49%
   26   TINS    Timah Tbk                            14,419,602,300,000   1.28%
   19   LSIP    PP London Sumatera Tbk               13,918,642,488,600   1.23%
   24   SMCB    Holcim Indonesia Tbk                 13,333,446,000,000   1.18%
   17   KLBF    Kalbe Farma Tbk                      12,999,698,460,160   1.15%
   18   LPKR    Lippo Karawaci Tbk                   11,696,254,545,820   1.04%
    5   BLTA    Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk              10,290,246,951,600   0.91%
    6   BNBR    Bakrie & Brothers Tbk                 8,630,489,088,000   0.77%
    7   BTEL    Bakrie Telecom Tbk                    8,150,081,052,810   0.72%
    9   CPRO    Central Proteinaprima Tbk             7,886,158,111,120   0.70%
    3   APEX    Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk             5,662,363,625,000   0.50%
   11   FREN    Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk                  5,463,685,555,290   0.48%
   10   CTRA    Ciputra Development Tbk               5,297,883,306,750   0.47%
   14   INKP    Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk           4,814,464,988,080   0.43%
                TOTAL                             1,127,761,359,328,380 100.00%




                         9
Relative Performance

     Ja
        n-




                 99.00
                100.00
                101.00
                102.00
                103.00
                104.00
                105.00
                106.00
                107.00
                108.00
                109.00
           01
     Ma
        y-
           01
     Se
        p-
           01
     Ja
        n-
           02




                      JII
     Ma
        y-



                            IHSG
           02
     Se
        p-
           02
     Ja
        n-
           03
     M
      ay
         -0
            3




10
     Se
        p-
           03
     Ja
        n-
           04
     M
      ay
         -0
            4
     Se
        p-
                                       IHSG vs JII




           04
     Ja
        n-
           05
     M
      ay
         -0
                                                            IHSG vs JII




     Se 5
        p-
           05
     Ja
        n-
           06
     Ma
        y-0
            6
     Se
        p-
           06
     Ja
        n-
           07
     Ma
        y-0
            7
     Se
        p-
           07
                                                  JII

                                                IHSG
                                             Outperformed
TANTANGAN

   Kinerja Saham JII 2007 vs 2008
    • Kinerja Tahun 2007 (Nov)
       IHSG                      46.41%
       JII                       52.37%
       Sektor Pertambangan       228.11%
       Sektor Agribisnis         110.52%
       Sektor Infrastruktur      12.09%
    • Tahun 2008
         Sektor Pertambangan, Agribisnis,
          Infrastruktur ?


                    11
TANTANGAN

   Aset Alokasi Portofolio
    • Indonesia
          Pilihan terbatas pada Daftar Efek Syariah/JII
    • Offshore
        KLSE
        Hang Seng Islamic Index

        Others




                     12
IHSG vs JII

                     Tahun              IHSG       JII
                      2001                -4.44%     8.24%
                      2002                10.82%    14.06%
                      2003                69.11%    83.14%
                      2004                41.98%    34.36%
                      2005                16.16%    19.89%
                      2006                54.09%    53.72%
                      2007                46.38%    52.39%
               Average Return             31.29%    35.57%
              Standard Deviation          28.25%    28.46%
             Coefficient of Variation       0.90      0.80



   Average Annual Return JII > IHSG
   Standard Deviations Average Return JII > IHSG
   Coefficient of Variation JII < IHSG


                              13
TERIMA KASIH

PT PNM Investment Management
Gedung Arthaloka Lt. 8
Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav. 2
Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia
Telp. : 62-21-251 1395 (Hunting)
Fax.     : 62-21-251 1385
http     : www.pnmim.com

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Prospek pasar modal syariah revised

  • 1. Investing in 2008, Opportunities and Challenges SYARIAH MUTUAL FUND Jakarta, 12 December 2007
  • 2. PERKEMBANGAN AWAL  Indonesia • Tahun 1997, Penerbitan Reksa Dana berbasis Syariah pertama di Indonesia • Tahun 2000, Peluncuran Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)  Daftar 30 Saham berkategori Syariah • Tahun 2002, Penerbitan Obligasi Syariah oleh PT Indosat Tbk  Tingkat Imbal Hasil 16,75% 2
  • 3. PERKEMBANGAN SAAT INI Daftar Efek Syariah (Kep-386/BL/2007) • meliputi 20 (dua puluh) Efek Syariah dengan jenis sukuk/obligasi syariah, • 164 (seratus enam puluh empat) Efek Syariah dengan jenis saham yang dikeluarkan oleh Emiten dan • 5 (lima) Efek Syariah dengan jenis saham Perusahaan Publik dan 3 (tiga) Emiten Delisting. 3
  • 4. PERKEMBANGAN REKSA DANA SYARIAH Perkem bangan Jum lah Reksa Dana Syariah Perkembangan AUM Reksa Dana Syariah (Rp. m iliar) 25 1800 22 1670.28 20 1600 20 1400 15 1200 15 1000 11 800 10 662.71 600 555.57 400 336.83 5 4 2 2 2 200 24.56 22.45 23.32 44.94 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (Nov) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 (Nov) 4
  • 5. PERKEMBANGAN REKSA DANA SYARIAH % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri Tahun 2007 (Fixed Income) Tahun 2007 1.37% Industri Industri Syariah Syariah 98.63% % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri % AUM Reksa Dana Syariah vs Industri Tahun 2007 (Equity) Tahun 2007 (Balanced) 2.22% 4.56% Industri Industri Syariah Syariah 97.78% 95.44% 5
  • 6. REKSA DANA PENDAPATAN TETAP SYARIAH 1 hr 1 mg 1 bl 1 th Reksa Dana Pendapatan Tetap Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah (0.01) 0.09 0.82 12.25 Reksa Dana Syariah 0.10 0.02 1.46 13.91 Data as of Oct 30, 2007 source: Infovesta 6
  • 7. REKSA DANA PENDAPATAN TETAP SYARIAH  Keterbatasan instrumen “fixed income” • Total nilai emisi obligasi syariah  sebesar IDR 1.949 T, atau  sebesar 3.5% dari obligasi korporasi di Indonesia • Belum ada instrumen obligasi pemerintah sebagai acuan (risk free proxy)  Likuiditas pasar yang rendah  Risk Premium yang lebih tinggi akibat risiko likuiditas yang lebih tinggi 7
  • 8. REKSA DANA SAHAM & CAMPURAN SYARIAH 1 hr 1 mg 1 bl 1 th 3 th Reksa Dana Campuran Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah (0.26) 2.22 7.88 35.59 95.43 Reksa Dana Syariah (0.32) 3.95 12.50 36.94 109.66 Reksa Dana Saham Average Reksa Dana Non-Syariah (0.29) 3.80 12.93 Reksa Dana Syariah (0.13) 5.74 16.72 Data as of Oct 30, 2007 source: Infovesta 8
  • 9. JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX No. Saham Perusahaan Market Capitalization % 27 TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk 221,759,992,080,000 19.66% 4 ASII Astra International Tbk 115,378,126,449,000 10.23% 8 BUMI Bumi Resources Tbk 114,483,600,000,000 10.15% 12 INCO International Nickel Ind .Tbk 93,699,674,129,600 8.31% 21 PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk 74,454,127,202,000 6.60% 30 UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk 50,739,500,000,000 4.50% 16 ISAT Indosat Tbk 49,720,491,525,000 4.41% 2 ANTM Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk 42,684,607,381,250 3.78% 1 AALI Astra Agro Lestari Tbk 40,628,421,000,000 3.60% 25 SMGR Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 34,402,816,000,000 3.05% 29 UNTR United Tractors Tbk 31,225,119,645,000 2.77% 15 INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 28,713,607,252,200 2.55% 22 PTBA Tambang Batubara Bukit AsamTbk 27,419,169,015,000 2.43% 13 INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 24,790,996,125,000 2.20% 28 TRUB Truba Alam Manunggal E. Tbk 20,967,016,320,000 1.86% 20 MEDC Medco Energi International Tbk 17,328,747,540,000 1.54% 23 SMAR SMART Tbk 16,802,331,191,100 1.49% 26 TINS Timah Tbk 14,419,602,300,000 1.28% 19 LSIP PP London Sumatera Tbk 13,918,642,488,600 1.23% 24 SMCB Holcim Indonesia Tbk 13,333,446,000,000 1.18% 17 KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk 12,999,698,460,160 1.15% 18 LPKR Lippo Karawaci Tbk 11,696,254,545,820 1.04% 5 BLTA Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk 10,290,246,951,600 0.91% 6 BNBR Bakrie & Brothers Tbk 8,630,489,088,000 0.77% 7 BTEL Bakrie Telecom Tbk 8,150,081,052,810 0.72% 9 CPRO Central Proteinaprima Tbk 7,886,158,111,120 0.70% 3 APEX Apexindo Pratama Duta Tbk 5,662,363,625,000 0.50% 11 FREN Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk 5,463,685,555,290 0.48% 10 CTRA Ciputra Development Tbk 5,297,883,306,750 0.47% 14 INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk 4,814,464,988,080 0.43% TOTAL 1,127,761,359,328,380 100.00% 9
  • 10. Relative Performance Ja n- 99.00 100.00 101.00 102.00 103.00 104.00 105.00 106.00 107.00 108.00 109.00 01 Ma y- 01 Se p- 01 Ja n- 02 JII Ma y- IHSG 02 Se p- 02 Ja n- 03 M ay -0 3 10 Se p- 03 Ja n- 04 M ay -0 4 Se p- IHSG vs JII 04 Ja n- 05 M ay -0 IHSG vs JII Se 5 p- 05 Ja n- 06 Ma y-0 6 Se p- 06 Ja n- 07 Ma y-0 7 Se p- 07 JII IHSG Outperformed
  • 11. TANTANGAN  Kinerja Saham JII 2007 vs 2008 • Kinerja Tahun 2007 (Nov)  IHSG 46.41%  JII 52.37%  Sektor Pertambangan 228.11%  Sektor Agribisnis 110.52%  Sektor Infrastruktur 12.09% • Tahun 2008  Sektor Pertambangan, Agribisnis, Infrastruktur ? 11
  • 12. TANTANGAN  Aset Alokasi Portofolio • Indonesia  Pilihan terbatas pada Daftar Efek Syariah/JII • Offshore  KLSE  Hang Seng Islamic Index  Others 12
  • 13. IHSG vs JII Tahun IHSG JII 2001 -4.44% 8.24% 2002 10.82% 14.06% 2003 69.11% 83.14% 2004 41.98% 34.36% 2005 16.16% 19.89% 2006 54.09% 53.72% 2007 46.38% 52.39% Average Return 31.29% 35.57% Standard Deviation 28.25% 28.46% Coefficient of Variation 0.90 0.80  Average Annual Return JII > IHSG  Standard Deviations Average Return JII > IHSG  Coefficient of Variation JII < IHSG 13
  • 14. TERIMA KASIH PT PNM Investment Management Gedung Arthaloka Lt. 8 Jl. Jend Sudirman Kav. 2 Jakarta 10220 – Indonesia Telp. : 62-21-251 1395 (Hunting) Fax. : 62-21-251 1385 http : www.pnmim.com