Scenario planning by Mirza Yawar Baig

1. The Mind of a Fox
By Chantell Ilbury & Clem Sunter

2. Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control

3. Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Decisions
Rules of the GameScenarios
Key Uncertainties
Options

4. Explaining the model
1. If you know the Rules of the Game, you can build
intelligent scenarios. The more scenarios you can build the
better you will be prepared.
2. In the scenario, try to identify the Key Uncertainties that
you should be prepared for.
3. Scenarios throw up Options based on which you can take
Decisions.
Scenario planning is not foreseeing the future

5. Remember
1. Choice ≠ Option
2. Scenario ≠ Prediction
3. Success is a result of considering different
scenarios and exercising the best option
What matters is not what you want to do
but what you can do

6. Choice is not Option
1. If you go into a shop, the Choices you have are all the
things that the shop contains.
2. But your Options are limited by how much money you
have in your pocket, or the credit you can get.
3. Similarly a Scenario tells you what may happen. It is not a
Prediction to say that it WILL happen.
4. But it gives you the possibility to look at all that can
happen given a certain set of circumstances or conditions.

7. Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Strengths
OpportunitiesThreats
Weaknesses

8. Reflection
1. Please create your own Control/Certainty matrix
and analyze your own career and reflect on what
you would do to increase your options
20 minutes
Being ‘rich’ is to have more options
Not to have more possessions

9. Possessions limit options
1. If you have real estate property in one land it limits
the number of places you can live in.
2. Or a cushy job may limit your risk taking to seek
challenging assignments that can potentially
enhance your development.
3. Please reflect on your careers and see how you can
enhance your options.

10. Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Control Freaks
FatalistsDice Rollers
Fence – Sitters

11. How to get the Most
1. This process is the cornerstone to success in
anything you do (personally, professionally, or for
your business)
2. Realize that it IS a PROCESS
3. Understanding that YOU are the KEY

12. Control
CertaintyUncertainty
No Control
Strengths
OpportunitiesThreats
Weaknesses

13. Career
1. Using your understanding of the Control/Certainty
matrix please analyze your own career and reflect
on what you would do
2. Please create your own Control/Certainty matrix
and see what options you have to exercise
20 minutes

14. Core
StarsDogs
Non-Core
Keep
?Sell or Shut
?

15. Business
1. Using your understanding of the Control/Certainty
matrix please analyze your business and present
what you would do
2. Please work in your groups and present to the
plenary
30 minutes