This document predicts communication technologies that may exist in 2024 and analyzes them using diffusion of innovation and long tail theories. It examines visual 3D technologies like Google Glass and suspended holograms. While innovative, their high costs and lack of interactivity may limit widespread adoption. An ideal future technology would combine the interface of Google Glass with the interactivity of holograms in a portable, affordable way.

1. Communication in 2024 A.D. Michael Bajorek University of Louisville

2. Abstract • Various innovative technology is researched. • A prediction is made as for what technology will present in 2024 A.D. • These technologies are analyzed for drawbacks and benefits. • Various market and trend theories are used and analyzed in the prediction. • . Keywords: Technology, communication technology, future

3. Communication In 2024 A.D.

4. By Michael Bajorek

5. Visual 3D Technology Google Glass, Oculus

6. Possible Mediums • Google Glass features hands free SMS technology • Hands free social media could be a possibility • Oculus (Virtual Reality) [Best Communication has all 5 senses (think 2054)] • Google Glass and similar competitor replicas will probably rule the market • Why type on a phone to look something up when there's hands free?

7. Google Glass • Most promising • Social media hands free could show names above heads • Downside: Not interactive except for speaking out loud • Not useful in a room where silence is necessary or loud noises present • Most interesting because of translucent overlay on eyesight

8. Suspended Holograms Leia Display System, Hatsune Miku

9. Possible Mediums • Leia Display System is amazing. • It's interactive, and the screen is made of mist. • Has all the capabilities of touch screen technology. • Downsides: Still 2-D • Not necessarily more useful than touch screen functionally

10. Hatsune Miku • Thin, clear screen • Open Source (Hutchinson, 2014). • It allows for communication via hologram. • Internet connection could make it a new medium for communication. • Downsides: 2-D, Not Interactive, Not necessarily more useful than TV.

11. Interesting Notes 1. Different tech could come, but it's possible none will disappear by 2024. 2. Telephone communication through radio waves will probably stay. 3. Communication through internet connections on computers will probably stay. 4. Text/Instant messaging on whatever interface will stay because of silence. 5. Exceptions would involve increased convenience w/o loss of benefits

12. Relation to Theories A closer look

13. Roger's Diffusion of Innovations: Google Glass 1. Early Adopters - Bought $1,500 Beta Version 2. Slowing Mechanisms: High cost [$1,500] 3. Diffusion of Innovations relies on human capital. 4. Google Glass resembles the iPhone in many ways. 5. Completely innovative interface, first of its kind.

14. Roger's Diffusion of Innovations: Google Glass • Will it reach critical mass? • Where does it differ from the iPhone release? • Cost • Claims that it is still in "beta" i.e. still in development • That's about it...

15. Roger's Diffusion of Innovations: Google Glass • It may not reach critical mass. • The process relies on human capital. • Google Glass does little more than an iPhone. • The only difference is the viewing mechanism. • It's even slightly less convenient in some situations.

16. Roger's Diffusion of Innovations: Google Glass • Why did I still pick it, if I don't think it will reach critical mass? • It is an innovative medium, and the first of its kind. • Its innovation resembles the iPhone's in many ways. • The limiting factor that could prevent it is only the cost. • They claim it is still being tested, which means the price could drop.

17. Moore's Innovation Adoption Rate is basically the same.

18. Theory of the Long Tail In relation to Leia Display System

19. Theory of the Long Tail: Leia Display System • In this case, it depends on the cost (not listed on website). • Will everyone adopt a trend that costs $100,000? • It's not likely. • Why did the iPhone become a trend? • At its highest cost, it was $500 I believe.

20. Theory of the Long Tail: Leia Display System • Just like Roger's Diffusion of Innovations relies on human capital... • So does the Theory of the Long Tail, in this case. Why? • Some people are willing to adopt the technology for the high price. • Hence we have a niche group in the long tail. • A niche group paying that much more could sustain the product.

21. Theory of the Long Tail: Leia Display System • Where could this niche reside? • Could there be a trend within the niche? • Yes. There could be a critical mass, too. • It's more likely that these niche adopters will be permanent, though. • Poten. Adopters: classrooms, military, businesses, presentation developers

22. Theory of the Long Tail: Leia Display System • Other potential adopters: architects, designers, etc. • When could the trend within the niche end? • It would occur if a better display system came along.

23. Theory of the Long Tail: Leia Display System • Does everyone have a use for a giant interactive screen? • No. Although, tablets and bigger screens are popular. • The cost is most likely very high, though, and it's not very portable. • This is why it has more potential to be a niche product than a trend. • If the cost were lowered, then this could change.

24. The Principle of Relative Constancy In relation to all technologies I listed...

25. Principle of Relative Constancy • This theory involves the amount people spend. • It states that people spend a constant amount on each industry over time. • The trends in technology and communication have been very well known. • From the printing press, to the telegraph, telephone, radio, tv. • The internet, computers, cell phones, pagers, wifi.

26. "Americans spend the equivalent of 17 percent of their monthly mortgage or rent on technology" (Satran, 2013).

27. Principle of Relative Constancy • People are always hungry for new technology. • Projected spending will reach $2.7 trillion by 2016 (Gartner, 2012). • People are willingly ready to support a cool, new tech product. • People will abandon old technology for new, cooler technology. • Radios were abandoned for televisions, telegraphs abandoned..

28. "It is hard to think of any tool... with which we have developed so close a relationship so quickly as we have with our phones" (Gibbs, 2012).

29. Principle of Relative Constancy • When old technology is abandoned, it is for the interface and portability. • Computers & laptops are being abandoned for tablets. • This made me choose two products with unique interfaces & one is portable. • The interfaces are very cool, as well as novel. • They are the only of their kind.

30. Potential Drawbacks • The products I mentioned have major drawbacks. • Although, they were the most promising that I could find. • Drawbacks: high cost • Google Glass forces you to speak. • Many people like text messaging because it's silent and discreet.

31. Potential Drawbacks • Leia Display isn't portable. • It's expensive. • It should have a 3-D model.

32. Potential Solutions • Ideally, a product that combines the usefulness of both products. • If there were a Google Glass interface with the other's interactivity. • If you could touch a screen that existed in mid-air with Google Glass. • If it were portable like Google Glass. • If it were cheap.

33. References • Hutchinson, K. (2014). Hatsune Miku: Japan's Holographic Pop • . Star Might Be the Future of Music. The Guardian. Pop and • . Rock. Retrieved from http://www.theguardian.com/music/ • . 2014/dec/05/hatsune-miku-japan-hologram-pop-star

34. References • Press Release from Gartner, Inc. (2012). Gartner Says Consumers Will Spend • . $2.1 Trillion on Technology Products and Services Worldwide in 2012. • . Gartner Newsroom Announcements. Retrieved from • . http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2094015

35. References • Gibbs, N. (2012). Your Life Is Fully Mobile. Time Magazine. • . Mobile Tech Special. Retrieved from • . http://techland.time.com/2012/08/16/your-life-is-fully-mobile/

36. References • Satran, R. (2013). Are Technology Costs Killing Your Budget? • . U.S. News: A World Report. Retrieved from • . http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/ • . articles/2013/10/24/are-technology-costs-killing-your-budget

37. Image References • Unknown Author. (Unknown Year.) Untitled [Electronic Image], • . Retrieved December 6, 2014 from • . http://www.technews24h.com/2014/03/are-holograms-future-of-video.html

38. Image References • COM SOLUD. (Unknown Year). Wearable Technology [Electronic Image], • . Retrieved December 6, 2014 from • . http://ajr.org/2014/10/28/radically-different-future-news/