1. Immigrants and the economic
recovery: What are the policy
implications?
Naomi Alboim
2010 ALLIES Learning Exchange
May 7, 2010
Halifax

2. Purpose
 As the economy recovers from the most recent
recession, and as data become available, we are
starting to see the impact of the recession on
Canada’s immigrants.
 This presentation:
– Draws conclusions about how immigrants fared during
the recession
– Raises public policy implications
– Makes recommendations for consideration by public
policy makers
2

3. Key findings
 Immigrants as a group were hurt badly by the
recession, but the impact varies depending on
sector, geographic location, length of time in
Canada, gender and other factors.
– Hardest hit: recent immigrants; men; young;
manufacturing
 Though hurt by the recession, many are not
eligible for the things that would help them to
recover (e.g., language training, employment
insurance, income assistance).
 We need to unpack the data to design targeted
interventions that will enable immigrants to
contribute to economic growth.
3

4. Data sources
 Looked at Canada, Ontario and Greater Toronto
Area to see if the picture changes.
 A lot of helpful data from Statistics Canada, in
Metropolis presentations.
 Intergovernmental Relations Group (IGR) of
Toronto Region Immigrant Employment Council
(TRIEC) was instrumental in generating
additional data and insights for GTA.
– municipal welfare data
– focus groups with immigrant-serving agencies
– early warnings from the field and funded organizations
– in-camera monthly meetings to identify gaps and
recommendations for action
4

5. Recession hypothesis
 One hypothesis going into the recession was that
it would have a disproportionately negative
impact on immigrants in Canada.
 Preliminary data indicate this hypothesis was
correct, but with differential impact among
immigrants.
– Main focus of this presentation.
– Caveat: more data and study required
5

6. Immigration levels
 In the 1980s, Canadian immigration levels were
reduced in response to recession and subsequent
persistent high unemployment rates .
 During the recent recession, immigration levels
were maintained to meet longer-term population
and labour market objectives
– This was also the approach adopted by New Zealand and
Sweden. Australia and UK, however, reduced
immigration levels in response to recession.
 Don’t know the longer term impact on cohort
arriving during recession.
 Need to know how immigrants have fared and
other impacts of the recession on immigrants to
determine policy and program interventions.
6

7. A. How have immigrants fared in
Canada?

8. Job loss: length of residency
 Recent immigrants were hardest hit by
recession job loss
 Between October 2008 and October 2009, recent
immigrants accounted for 22% of all job losses,
compared with just 3% of employment.
 Consistent with the experience of other OECD
countries.
 Established immigrants fared relatively well.
 Immigrants with 10 years or more residency
actually gained jobs, compared with a 2.2% loss
in employment among Canadian-born workers.
 Immigrants here between 5 and 10 years were
comparable to Canadian born.
8

9. Job loss: length of residency
Job losses and employment by immigrant status-Canada
October 2008 – October 2009
Seasonally unadjusted, 3 month moving average
Immigrant status % change in employment
Recent immigrants, 5 years or less -13.4
Immigrants, between 5 and 10 years -2.8
Canadian-born -2.2
Established immigrants, 10 years + +1.4
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis
conference 2010.
9

10. Job loss: cities
 Recent immigrants accounted for essentially all
net job losses in Canada’s three largest cities
(Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver) between October
2008 and October 2009.
– Their employment declined by 17%, compared to
virtually no decline for Canadian-born workers.
 Recession impacts were less severe for
immigrants with 5 to 10 years residency.
 Established immigrants with more than 10
years of Canadian residency experienced job
gains, faring better than Canadian-born workers.
10

11. Job loss: cities
Job losses and employment in Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver
by immigrant status,
October 2008 - October 2009
Seasonally unadjusted, 3-month moving average
Immigrant status % change in employment
Recent immigrants, 5 years or less -17.2
Immigrants, between 5 and 10 years -5.5
Canadian-born 0.0
Established immigrants, 10 years + +0.8
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis
conference 2010.
11

12. Job loss
Immigrants vs. other groups
 Nation-wide and in the 3 largest cities, recent
immigrants are more affected by job loss than
other groups.
– Due, in part, to status as new labour market entrants
with relatively low job tenure and Canadian work
experience.
– Even though educated, did worse than workers with less
than high school.
 Youth were also significantly overrepresented
among net job losses, but to a lesser degree than
recent immigrants.
12

13. Job loss
Immigrants vs. other groups
Job losses and employment among selected groups
October 2008 - October 2009
Vulnerable groups % change in
employment
Recent immigrants, 5 years or less -13.4
Workers with less than high school -11.1
Youth 15-24 -8.7
Aboriginal peoples -5.1
Workers with high school and/or some PSE -3.0
Older workers 55+ +3.7
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis
conference 2010.
13

14. Employment by industry
 Immigrants are significantly represented in
certain industries, particularly manufacturing.
– The manufacturing sector was hardest hit by the
recession and job loss.
– Employment fell by 36% for recent immigrants,
compared to 14% for established immigrants and only
8% for Canadian-born workers.
14

15. Incidence of employment by
industry
Incidence of employment by industry for selected groups (25-54), February 2010
Recent immigrants, 5 years or less Established immigrants, 5 years+ Canadian-born
Public administration
Other services
Accommodation and food services
Information, culture and recreation
Health care and social assistance
Educational services
Business, building and other support services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing
Transportation and warehousing
Trade
Manufacturing
Construction
Utilities
Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas
Agriculture
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation at
Metropolis conference 2010.
15

16. % change in employment by
industry
% change in employment by selected industries and immigrant status,
seasonally unadjusted, October 2008-October 2009
Recent immigrants, 5 years or less Established immigrants, 5 years + Born in Canada
10
5
5 3 2
0
0
-1
-5 -3
-6 -6 -5
-10 -7 -8 -7
-9 -8 -9
-15 -13
-14 -16
-20
-25
-30 -27
-35 -31
-36
-40
Goods- Services- Construction Manufacturing Transportation Accommodation Professional,
producing producing and and food scientific and
sector sector warehousing services technical
services
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation to
Metropolis conference 2010.
16

17. Gender impact
 Immigrant men – like Canadian-born men – were
much more severely affected than immigrant
women by recession-related job loss.
– They experienced a much steeper drop in employment
rate and larger rise in unemployment rate than
immigrant women.
– As with Canadian-born men, this is largely related to the
composition of employment (e.g., male employment in
manufacturing and construction).
 The gender difference was most pronounced
among recent immigrants:
– In this group, men’s employment rate declined by 8.5%
points, vs. no decline for women.
17

18. Gender: changes in employment
rates
Changes in employment rates by immigrant status and gender,
October 2008 and October 2009, seasonally unadjusted
1
0
-1
Percentage points
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
Men Women Men Women Men Women
Recent immigrant, 5 years or less Established immigrant, 5 years+ Canadian-born
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis
conference 2010.
18

19. Age: job loss and employment
 Immigrants in the youngest category - age 15 -
24 – are the worst off.
 Within the 25-54 group, immigrants – especially
recent immigrants – were noticeably more
affected by recession job loss than Canadian-
born.
 Older recent immigrants, like older Canadian-
born workers, experienced job gains between
October 2008 and October 2009.
19

20. Age: changes in employment
rates
Changes in employment rates by immigrant status and age,
October 2008-October 2009, seasonally unadjusted
1
0
-1
Percentage points
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
15-24 25-54 55 Years + 15-24 25-54 55 Years + 15-24 25-54 55 Years +
Recent immigrants (<=5yrs) Established immigrants (5 yrs+) Born in Canada
Source: Statistics Canada labour force survey. From HRSDC presentation to
Metropolis conference 2010.
20

21. B. Regional differences?

22. Regional differences
 Preliminary findings show the recession has had a
disproportionate impact on immigrants as a
group in Canada.
 What about regional differences?
 Looked at Ontario and Greater Toronto Area to
show how the picture can change.
22

23. Ontario snapshot
 30% of Ontario’s labour force is immigrants
 55% of Canada’s immigrant labour force is in
Ontario.
 40% of Canada’s immigrant labour force is in the
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area.
 Ontario has 39% of Canada’s population and
55% of the job loss.
– Decline in manufacturing, construction and service
sectors key factor because that is where immigrants are
significantly represented in Ontario.
23

24. Regional differences in labour
force
Immigrants in the Labour Force
30.0%
Ontario - 30%
25.0%
Canada - 21%
Percent of Labour Force
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
CA NF PE NS NB QC ON MN SK AB BC
Very Recent (< 5 yrs) Recent (5 - 10 yrs) Established (> 10 yrs)
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. From Ontario Ministry of
Citizenship and Immigration presentation at Metropolis 2010.
24

25. Ontario: unemployment
 Once in Canada 10 years or more, the
unemployment rate is not much different than
Canadian born.
 Major concern: for very recent immigrants (less
than 5 years), the rate is still going up.
 Also concerned about recent immigrants (5-10
years).
25

26. Ontario: unemployment
Ontario Unemployment Rate by Immigrant Period of Arrival (Jun 08 to Jan 10)
20
18
16.1 Very recent immigrants (< 5
16
yrs in Canada)
14
Unemployment Rate (%)
12.6
12 Recent immigrants (5 - 10 yrs
in Canada)
10
8.7
8 8.1
Established immigrants (> 10
6 yrs in Canada)
4
Canadian-born
2
0
Mar-09
May-09
Dec-09
Dec-08
Oct-09
Oct-08
Aug-08
Jan-10
Jan-09
Aug-09
Apr-09
Jul-08
Jul-09
Feb-09
Sep-08
Sep-09
Nov-08
Nov-09
Jun-08
Jun-09
Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey. From Ontario Ministry of
Citizenship and Immigration presentation at Metropolis 2010.
26

27. Ontario: education and
unemployment
Unemployment rate for university graduates, Ontario
16.0
13.9 14.6 14.5
14.0
12.5
12.0 Very recent immigrants, 5
12.0 years or less
11.5
10.0 10.9 Recent immigrants, 5 to 10
9.7 years
8.0
Established immigrants, 10+
6.0 5.0 5.0 years
4.2 4.5 Born in Canada
4.0
2.0 3.1 3.1
2.8 2.9
0.0
January 2009 February March 2009 April 2009
2009
Source: Toronto Immigrant Employment Initiative, York University.
27

28. Greater Toronto Area:
unemployment
Unemployment rate
Toronto CMA Labour Force Survey
July 08 Aug 09 Dec 09
Less than 5 years in Canada 12.6 16.5 14.8
5-10 years in Canada 9.9 17.7 12.5
10+ years in Canada 8.0 10.9 8.4
Born in Canada 6.2 9.1 7.6
 Much of the recent employment growth is in
part time work.
28

29. GTA: need for services
 Immigrant service agencies, community service
providers and municipal governments report
significant increase in recently unemployed
immigrants who:
– Have been in country more than three years
– Entered manufacturing because unable to find jobs
suitable to their education and experience
– Did not upgrade language skills or pursue licensure upon
arrival
– Now unemployed and seeking federal services and
language training to make use of their skills and
education
Source: Focus groups with immigrant service agencies through Intergovernmental
Relations Group of the Toronto Region Immigrant Employment Council
29

30. C. What are the policy
implications?

31. 1. Learn from past recessions
 In 1981, recent immigrant employment rates
were close to Canadian-born. Two periods of
recession reduced immigrant employment and
they never recovered.
– 1980s: Recent immigrants’ employment rate did not recover
before the 1990s recession hit. Their unemployment rate
never returned to pre-recession level.
– 1990s: Recent immigrants’ employment rate continued to
decline and their unemployment rate continued to rise, while
labour market outcomes for Canadian-born workers improved.
 In previous recessions recent immigrants were
more affected by job loss than Canadian-born
workers, contributing to a widening of
employment rate and unemployment rate gaps.
 We need to ensure immigrants can recover this
time and that the gap does not widen.
31

32. Past recessions: employment
rates
Employment Rates for Recent Immigrants and Canadian-born (15-64),
1981-2006
Canadian-born Recent Immigrants
80
70
60
Employment rate (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: Census 1981 to 2006. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis conference
2010.
32

33. Past recessions: unemployment
rates Immigrants and
Unemployment Rates for Recent
Canadian-born (15-64), 1981-2006
Canadian-born Recent Immigrants
20
18
16
14
Percentage (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Source: Census 1981-2006. From HRSDC presentation at Metropolis conference 2010.
33

34. 2. Unpack the data
 We require more study of the impact of the
recession on immigrants to understand the
interventions that are needed.
 We need flexible national programs that are
responsive to real differences.
– This requires “unpacking the data” to see differences in
impact based on region, sector, length of time in
Canada, etc.
 We need dialogue with immigrants and the
agencies that serve them to put a human face to
the numbers, charts and graphs.
34

35. 3. Grow the labour force
 Current recovery prospects appear fairly positive
for Canada.
– A return to employment growth was seen in just a few
countries in late 2009, including Canada, Australia, Poland,
Israel and the United Kingdom.
 As Canada’s economy improves, there will be a
huge need for labour.
– The immigrant population is a labour force already in Canada.
 With some investment, those harmed by the
recession can contribute to the economy as it
grows.
– With language skills, etc. immigrants can contribute to the
growth.
– Without services, they will not fare well and we will not benefit
from their potential.
35

36. …grow the labour force
 A relatively rapid bounce back to pre-recession
employment levels and unemployment rates is
anticipated in 3-4 years, in part because slowing
labour force growth will support declining
unemployment rates.
 With slowing growth, Canada will likely return
relatively quickly to tight labour markets. We
need the skills and abilities of every worker.
 We must maximize participation and productivity
in an environment where economic growth will
face demographic constraints.
 Education and skills of recent immigrants must
be fully utilized. Canada can not afford to waste
this potential.
36

37. 4. Address barriers to labour
market integration
 Immigrants and employers most frequently cite
the following barriers to labour market:
– Lack of official language skills
– Transferability of foreign credentials
– Lack of Canadian work experience
 Employers cite language barriers more frequently
– number one issue for them.
37

38. …barriers
Immigrant and employer views on obstacles to employment
Immigrant Managers
job seekers expecting to
hire
% of immigrants reporting problems in finding employment/ % 70% 72%
of managers expecting problems hiring foreign-trained workers
Most commonly cited problems
Lack of Canadian work experience 26% 46%
Transferability of foreign credentials 24% 52%
Lack of official language skills 22% 66%
Source: Presentation by HRSDC at Metropolis conference 2010. Immigrant job seeker data from Statistics Canada
Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, Catalogue no.89-611-XIE; Managers data from Canadian Labour and
Business Centre’s Viewpoints 2002 Survey.
38

39. Language makes a difference
 Research suggests that, if official language
abilities are controlled for, returns to education
are similar for immigrants and Canadian-born.
Source: Ana Ferrer, David A. Green, W. Craig Riddell, 2008, Literacy and
the Labour Market: Cognitive Skills and Immigrant Earnings.
 Immigrants who went into manufacturing did not
require language upgrading so did not access
services. Now many are citizens and no longer
eligible for federally funded language training.
39

40. Other factors make a difference
 Other interventions can help but are not widely
available.
– Canadian top-ups (internships, bridge training) reverse
discounting and lead to success.
– Social capital : social and professional networks (e.g.
mentoring) enhance labour market integration.
40

41. 5. Invest in programs &
services
 Time to invest in language training, upgrading
and other programmatic interventions to:
– prevent recession “scarring” and deskilling of
immigrants
– ensure skilled labour force is ready for the recovery
 However serious barriers prevent immigrants
harmed by the recession from gaining access to
programs and services.
41

42. EI benefits
 Because of changes in EI (more stringent labour
attachment requirements), it is more difficult for
unemployed people and particularly immigrants
to qualify for benefits.
– Part time, seasonal, non-standard work = less labour
market attachment.
 Women are less likely to qualify than men.
– More part time work and maternity leaves.
 Yet access to most training dollars and programs
dependent on EI eligibility
42

43. EI benefits
Source: Keith Banting, Queen’s University, 2010.
43

44. EI in Ontario
 The Employment Insurance legislation has been
adjusted in a way that creates geographic
disparities.
– Unemployed persons in Ontario are less likely to get
benefits than other parts of the country.
44

45. EI across Canada
Source: Keith Banting, Queen’s University, 2010.
45

46. Social assistance & unemployment
 In 2009, unemployment went up in Ontario but
social assistance stayed down.
Source: Keith Banting, Queen’s University, 2010.
46

47. GTA social assistance
 Although numbers, rate of circulation and length of time in
receipt of welfare are up modestly, GTA municipalities
report no disproportionate increase in welfare rates for
immigrants vs. non-immigrants.
 In Toronto, immigrants here three years+ make up the
same portion of new cases as Canadian born; immigrants
less than 3 years in Canada comprise only half the
proportion of new Canadian born cases.
 Reasons could include:
– Stigma
– Sponsorship agreements
– Lack of awareness
– Restrictive provisions regarding assets
Source: Greater Toronto Area municipalities.
47

48. Lack of eligibility for existing
programs
 If unemployed but no significant labour force
attachment, ineligible for EI or EI supported
training (disproportionate impact on Ontario).
 If on EI, cannot continue to receive benefits while
in full time language training.
 LMA training funds in Ontario not directed to
immigrants as target group: definition of
underemployment is quantitative, not qualitative
 If citizen (3 years+), ineligible for federal
programs and services, including LINC.
48

49. …Lack of eligibility
 LINC provides no income support, so many take
survival jobs to support their families and have
no time to take language training.
 Welfare workers can approve training (including
language) but applicants need to strip all assets
to be eligible for social assistance.
 Other training programs provide no income
support, child care or transportation allowances,
so difficult to access.
 New loan program in Ontario for bridge training
covers tuition and supplies only.
49

50. D. Recommendations

51. Recommendations
Data
1. Conduct more in-depth analysis on the impact of
the recession on immigrants.
2. Analyse data by province, city, sector, length of
time in Canada, gender, and education level in
order to target programs to needs.
3. Do investigations on the ground with immigrant
agencies to see real-life impact of recession on
immigrants.
51

52. Recommendations
Access to programs & services
4. Determine eligibility for federal settlement and
language programs by need, not citizenship
status.
5. Expand the definition of “underemployment” for
program eligibility to include the mismatch
between qualifications and employment.
6. Expand bridge training programs, internship and
mentoring programs with employer supports.
52

53. Recommendations
Income and supports
7. Provide income support/training allowances to
immigrants for language training, bridge
training, and other training opportunities.
8. Provide child care and transportation
support/allowances to immigrants participating
in language training, bridge training, and other
training opportunities.
9. Continue EI and social assistance benefits while
immigrants are participating in language
training, bridge training, and other training
opportunities.
10.Expand loan program for immigrants to access
training.
53

54. CONCLUSION
 We need to focus on strategic investments in
people.
 Investing in skilled immigrants’ human capital,
social capital, and access to services now will
prevent long term scarring and yield positive
results for the recovery and beyond.
54