THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF IMMIGRANTS Don Drummond, Economic Advisor May 6, 2010
TD Economics provides analysis of economic performance and the implications for investors. The analysis covers the globe, ...
LABOUR FORCE GROWTH  TO SLOW
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CANADA HAS BEEN ABYSMAL IN THE LAST HALF DECADE
POTENTIAL GDP IS IN LONG RUN DECLINE
DIRE  PREDICTIONS OF SKILLED LABOUR SHORTAGES <ul><li>NO : demand and supply will adjust </li></ul><ul><li>But: takes time...
IMMIGRATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT IMMIGRATION
CONCENTRATING IN URBAN CENTERS IMMIGRATION
BUT LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES ARE VERY POOR IMMIGRATION
MORE IMMIGRANTS WORK PART-TIME INVOLUNTARILY IMMIGRATION
…OR ARE HIRED ON A TEMPORARY BASIS IMMIGRATION
AND THE EARNINGS GAP  HAS BEEN GROWING IMMIGRATION
EVEN WORSE FOR THOSE WITH UNIVERSITY DEGREES IMMIGRATION
IMPORTANT NON-WAGE BENEFITS ARE LOWER FOR IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION
THUS, LOW INCOME RATES AMONG IMMIGRANTS HAVE RISEN IMMIGRATION
LOW INCOME OUTCOMES RISING SHARPLY RELATIVE TO CANADIAN-BORN CITIZENS IMMIGRATION
MANY IMMIGRANTS WELL EDUCATED IMMIGRATION
BUT THEIR SKILLS ARE UNDERUTILIZED IMMIGRATION
ESPECIALLY IN SOME HIGH-VALUE PROFESSIONS IMMIGRATION
LARGELY A FUNCTION OF HOME COUNTRY IMMIGRATION
EARLIER GENERATIONS COULD HOPE TO CLOSE THE GAP, NEW IMMIGRANTS MAY OR MAY NOT IMMIGRATION
IMMIGRANT SOURCE COUNTRIES HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME IMMIGRATION
LANGUAGE APPEARS TO BE A DOMINANT PROBLEM IMMIGRATION
SPECIFICALLY REGARDING ENTRANCE INTO THE WORKFORCE IMMIGRATION
EVIDENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NON-OFFICIAL LANGUAGES  IMMIGRATION
LITERACY PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN ADAPTING TO THE WORKPLACE IMMIGRATION
… AND IS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH PERSONAL INCOME IMMIGRATION
INCIDENCE OF LOW INCOME IS HIGHEST AMONG IMMIGRANT CHILDREN IMMIGRATION
CHILDREN OF IMMIGRANTS HAVE HIGH EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IMMIGRATION
RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE AUDITOR GENERAL <ul><li>The composition of immigration targets within the “Economic Class” should...
ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS <ul><li>Raising employment & incomes among aboriginals and immigrants is a high priority </li></ul><...
<ul><li>TD Economics </li></ul><ul><li>www.td.com/economics </li></ul>This report   is provided by TD Economics   for cust...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

2010 ALLIES Learning Exchange: Don Drummond - Changing Face of the Canadian Workplace

1,530 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,530
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
17
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

2010 ALLIES Learning Exchange: Don Drummond - Changing Face of the Canadian Workplace

  1. 1. THE RISING IMPORTANCE OF IMMIGRANTS Don Drummond, Economic Advisor May 6, 2010
  2. 2. TD Economics provides analysis of economic performance and the implications for investors. The analysis covers the globe, with emphasis on Canada, the United States, Europe and Asia. Contact Information Phone: 416 982 8065 Email: td.economics@td.com
  3. 3. LABOUR FORCE GROWTH TO SLOW
  4. 4. PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CANADA HAS BEEN ABYSMAL IN THE LAST HALF DECADE
  5. 5. POTENTIAL GDP IS IN LONG RUN DECLINE
  6. 6. DIRE PREDICTIONS OF SKILLED LABOUR SHORTAGES <ul><li>NO : demand and supply will adjust </li></ul><ul><li>But: takes time and money </li></ul><ul><li>Wages will rise </li></ul><ul><li>Capital substituted for labour </li></ul><ul><li>Production shifted to other markets </li></ul><ul><li>Recruitment from non-traditional pools (more training) </li></ul><ul><li>Retention of older workers </li></ul><ul><li>Better use of under-represented workers </li></ul><ul><li>If all else fails, growth will be slower </li></ul>
  7. 7. IMMIGRATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT IMMIGRATION
  8. 8. CONCENTRATING IN URBAN CENTERS IMMIGRATION
  9. 9. BUT LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES ARE VERY POOR IMMIGRATION
  10. 10. MORE IMMIGRANTS WORK PART-TIME INVOLUNTARILY IMMIGRATION
  11. 11. …OR ARE HIRED ON A TEMPORARY BASIS IMMIGRATION
  12. 12. AND THE EARNINGS GAP HAS BEEN GROWING IMMIGRATION
  13. 13. EVEN WORSE FOR THOSE WITH UNIVERSITY DEGREES IMMIGRATION
  14. 14. IMPORTANT NON-WAGE BENEFITS ARE LOWER FOR IMMIGRANTS IMMIGRATION
  15. 15. THUS, LOW INCOME RATES AMONG IMMIGRANTS HAVE RISEN IMMIGRATION
  16. 16. LOW INCOME OUTCOMES RISING SHARPLY RELATIVE TO CANADIAN-BORN CITIZENS IMMIGRATION
  17. 17. MANY IMMIGRANTS WELL EDUCATED IMMIGRATION
  18. 18. BUT THEIR SKILLS ARE UNDERUTILIZED IMMIGRATION
  19. 19. ESPECIALLY IN SOME HIGH-VALUE PROFESSIONS IMMIGRATION
  20. 20. LARGELY A FUNCTION OF HOME COUNTRY IMMIGRATION
  21. 21. EARLIER GENERATIONS COULD HOPE TO CLOSE THE GAP, NEW IMMIGRANTS MAY OR MAY NOT IMMIGRATION
  22. 22. IMMIGRANT SOURCE COUNTRIES HAVE CHANGED OVER TIME IMMIGRATION
  23. 23. LANGUAGE APPEARS TO BE A DOMINANT PROBLEM IMMIGRATION
  24. 24. SPECIFICALLY REGARDING ENTRANCE INTO THE WORKFORCE IMMIGRATION
  25. 25. EVIDENT IN THE PRESENCE OF NON-OFFICIAL LANGUAGES IMMIGRATION
  26. 26. LITERACY PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN ADAPTING TO THE WORKPLACE IMMIGRATION
  27. 27. … AND IS STRONGLY CORRELATED WITH PERSONAL INCOME IMMIGRATION
  28. 28. INCIDENCE OF LOW INCOME IS HIGHEST AMONG IMMIGRANT CHILDREN IMMIGRATION
  29. 29. CHILDREN OF IMMIGRANTS HAVE HIGH EDUCATIONAL OUTCOMES IMMIGRATION
  30. 30. RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE AUDITOR GENERAL <ul><li>The composition of immigration targets within the “Economic Class” should be clearly defined over a multi-year period to ensure the needs of Canada’s labour market are satisfied </li></ul><ul><li>In an effort to reduce inventories of Federal Skilled Worker applications, changes were made to the application process without sufficient policy analysis: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>How was the list of 38 eligible occupations compiled? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is not clear that these changes to the eligibility criteria have made a substantive difference in reducing the number of applications. </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS <ul><li>Raising employment & incomes among aboriginals and immigrants is a high priority </li></ul><ul><li>Canadian corporations cannot afford to underutilize the nation’s diverse talent pool </li></ul><ul><li>Language and literacy programs will be key, specifically for employers </li></ul><ul><li>Foreign experience/credential recognition is a necessity </li></ul>
  32. 32. <ul><li>TD Economics </li></ul><ul><li>www.td.com/economics </li></ul>This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

×