PREPARATION OF SECONDCOMMON COUNTRYASSESSMENT FORBOTSWANASOCIO-ECONOMIC REVIEW& KEY DEVELOPMENTCHALLENGES
Structure of Presentation Introduction: the CCA Process Highlights of Socio-economic Review   Economic structure & growth ...
Introduction
Introduction: Common Country Assessment The CCA is the common instrument of the UN for analysing the national development ...
Introduction: CCA The Common Country Assessment (CCA) provides the basis for the United Nations System in Botswana to prep...
CCA Methodology CCA is primarily a desktop-based literature review based on existing published materials and data No new d...
CCA Deliverables Five deliverables: 1.     Identification of key development challenges 2.     Socio-economic review/situa...
Content of Major Outputs Socio-economic review:   Developments in incomes (national, sectoral) & poverty   Key trends in i...
Timeline – Major MilestonesMilestone                                   DateProject commences                           Jun...
Consultancy Team Dr Keith Jefferis   Managing Director, Econsult Botswana (Pty) Ltd   Economist, Team Leader Dr Godisang M...
Objectives of Stakeholder Workshop To solicit comments on draft report To ensure that report reflects a broad-based unders...
Socio-economic Review - Highlights
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
GDP Growth – Long Term    25                 Botswana’s economic    20           growth has been on a    15               ...
Structure of GDP         Soc. &          pers.       Agric                  Mining still dominant;        Services       2...
Sectoral growth, 1995/6 – 2005/6            Agric                             Mining and          Manuf.                  ...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
Real Income (P/m, 2006 prices) byGender of HH and Settlement Type3500                  HIES data on median3000            ...
Change in Median Real Household Incomesby Settlement Type, 1993/4 – 2002/3  15%          16%              Reasonable real ...
Change in Rural HH real incomes, by income categories10%                         Decline in rural 5%                      ...
Household Income by Level of Education of Household Head and Settlement Type, 2002/3                                      ...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
Structure of Labour Force                                                      Nearly have the labour                     ...
Unemployment Rate by Gender & Age    Group    40                           Clear relationship    35                       ...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
Poverty Rate (Headcount) by District60%                    Official poverty data50%                    from 2002/03 HIES n...
Poverty & Inequality Slow decline in poverty levels, becoming increasingly rural Comparative international data show that ...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
Life Expectancy75                                  Projections from70                                  Demographic Impact ...
Trends in Child Age Cohorts280                               Numbers of children in270                               diffe...
Population Pyramids          1990              2007  85 +              85 +80 - 84           80 - 8475 - 79           75 -...
Other Demographic Trends Declining population growth and fertility rates Declining household size Rapidly rising no. of or...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
HIV prevalence45                                   Overall HIV40                                     prevalence appears to...
Child Health160140120100                                                                         1971 80                  ...
Health Developments Improvement in wide range of health indicators reversed due to HIV/AIDS Health expenditure has increas...
Access to education by region       Pupil/teacher ratio, 2004                  % aged 6-12 in school           Orapa      ...
Access to Education by Language   Group - % attended school (>12yo)     Sesarwa        Seyei                              ...
Education Issues Primary school coverage good (literacy survey indicates 1% have not attended school) Improving secondary ...
Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demo...
Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Crime & Corruption   Rising crime rates   Botswana scores consistently highl...
Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Access to land & housing a persistent problem   Poor quality of housing for ...
Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Botswana scores highly on international governance and human rights assessme...
Data Issues
Data Issues Substantial dataset compiled, covering social, economic, demographic and environmental variables Broken down b...
Data Issues Botswana data is generally good, but some shortcomings   Outdated in some areas   Infrequent or irregular time...
Economic & Social Challenges
Economic & Social Challenges Inadequate economic growth, slow diversification, low investment, insufficient job creation, ...
Unemployment & Poverty Challenges  Unemployment remains a problem despite  reasonably fast job creation  Primarily a youth...
Rural Development Challenges Rural areas economically weak, with declining agriculture, both arable and cattle-rearing Dep...
Demographic, Health & SocialChallenges Population structure changing due to HIV/AIDS and declining fertility, needs to be ...
Child Welfare Challenges Key issues:   Children (albeit few) missing from primary schools   Quality of primary and seconda...
Governance Challenges Strengthening civil society Determining appropriate roles for and balance between:   Central and loc...
Gender Issues
Emerging Gender Issues   Many economic and social indicators show   gender bias:   Unemployment: higher among females than...
Emerging Gender Issues  Education   Higher literacy rate for females;   Progress in Gross, Net Enrolment for both genders ...
Emerging Gender Issues  Health   Males marginalised from MCH/FP approach to reproductive   health;   Paradigm shift: Natio...
Emerging Gender Issues    Inclusion of men in the fight against GBV through the male    involvment initiative (MOH);  Poli...
Emerging Gender Issues  Gender Policy Framework Progress   Elevation of status of Women’s Affairs Division to   Department...
Key Gender Challenges Gender Policy Framework continues to be female focused resulting in male backlash. Implementation me...
Key Gender ChallengesEducation: most access indicators not gender-biased,but gender disparities in completion of secondary...
Key Gender Challenges Leadership and decision-making: low female representation in political decision-making. Glass- ceili...
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2007:United Nations Common Country Assessmen

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2007:United Nations Common Country Assessmen

  1. 1. PREPARATION OF SECONDCOMMON COUNTRYASSESSMENT FORBOTSWANASOCIO-ECONOMIC REVIEW& KEY DEVELOPMENTCHALLENGES
  2. 2. Structure of Presentation Introduction: the CCA Process Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues Data Issues Socio-economic challenges Gender highlights Environmental Sustainability Issues & Challenges
  3. 3. Introduction
  4. 4. Introduction: Common Country Assessment The CCA is the common instrument of the UN for analysing the national development situation and identifying key development issues with a focus on the MDGs and the other commitments, goals and targets of the Millennium Declaration and the international conferences, summits, conventions and human rights instruments of the UN system. Its purpose is to foster deeper knowledge of key development challenges among the partners involved based on a common analysis and understanding of the development situation of a country and a people-centred approach. It therefore provides a programming framework for all United Nations agencies
  5. 5. Introduction: CCA The Common Country Assessment (CCA) provides the basis for the United Nations System in Botswana to prepare its Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 2nd UNDAF (2010-2014) will run in parallel with NDP10 CCA comprises: an analysis of the existing development situation in Botswana a review of policies, programmes and key development issues Based on a shared understanding of the issues, with Government and other stakeholders CCA identifies challenges that UN can assist in addressing
  6. 6. CCA Methodology CCA is primarily a desktop-based literature review based on existing published materials and data No new data collection, limited analysis of existing data Guided by review and inputs from Reference Group, Stakeholder Workshop & UN Reader Group, to: Ensure that CCA reflects national needs & challenges Integrate with UN’s own principles and objectives Assist with prioritisation of issues and areas for future UN assistance
  7. 7. CCA Deliverables Five deliverables: 1. Identification of key development challenges 2. Socio-economic review/situation analysis 3. Overview of key socio-economic indicators 4. Stakeholder workshop 5. Draft CCA document Items 1-4 provide the basis for the CCA (5)
  8. 8. Content of Major Outputs Socio-economic review: Developments in incomes (national, sectoral) & poverty Key trends in inequality and access to incomes, employment, financial services and assets; Review major economic and social policy and reform processes International and national development commitments of Botswana (Vision & MDGs) Dataset: Use official data sources as far as possible based on MDG template Disaggregation according geography, gender, language & other socio-economic variables
  9. 9. Timeline – Major MilestonesMilestone DateProject commences June 25Inception report – submission July 30Inception report – reference group August 8Desk review first draft – submission August 24Desk review first draft – reference group September 13Desk review second draft – submission September 27Stakeholder workshop October 4Draft CCA document – submission October 21Draft CCA document – reference group November 14Final CCA document - submission November 16
  10. 10. Consultancy Team Dr Keith Jefferis Managing Director, Econsult Botswana (Pty) Ltd Economist, Team Leader Dr Godisang Mookodi Senior Lecturer in Sociology, UB Gender specialist Dr Jaap Arntzen Managing Director, Centre for Applied Research (CAR) Environmental Economist Research Assistants from Econsult & CAR
  11. 11. Objectives of Stakeholder Workshop To solicit comments on draft report To ensure that report reflects a broad-based understanding of socio-economic situation and development challenges To identify areas that may benefit from UN assistance and support under 2nd UNDAF
  12. 12. Socio-economic Review - Highlights
  13. 13. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  14. 14. GDP Growth – Long Term 25 Botswana’s economic 20 growth has been on a 15 long-term downward trend% 10 Recent growth trend 5 around 5% 0 -5
  15. 15. Structure of GDP Soc. & pers. Agric Mining still dominant; Services 2% 4% together with Govt. government accounts 17% for well over half of Banks Mining 41% GDP etc. 11% Diversification Trade objective not yet etc. 11% achieved Manuf. Water & 3%Transport Constr. elec. 4% 4% 3%
  16. 16. Sectoral growth, 1995/6 – 2005/6 Agric Mining and Manuf. government fastest Constr. Transport growing sectors over Banks etc. past decadeSoc. & pers. serv. Long-term contraction Trade etc. of agricultural sector Water & elec. Govt. Slower growth in Mining sectors other than -5% 0% 5% 10% mining & government Average annual growth
  17. 17. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  18. 18. Real Income (P/m, 2006 prices) byGender of HH and Settlement Type3500 HIES data on median3000 HH incomes shows2500 clearly: highest average incomes2000 in urban areas; lowest in Male1500 rural areas; ratio of Female 2.6:11000 All FHH lower incomes than 500 MHH in urban and UV 0 areas FHH incomes 2/3 of MHH incomes nationally
  19. 19. Change in Median Real Household Incomesby Settlement Type, 1993/4 – 2002/3 15% 16% Reasonable real income growth in towns/cities & urban villages Real income decline in rural areas Deepening contrast -15% between urban/UV Urban Urban Rural and rural income levels Village
  20. 20. Change in Rural HH real incomes, by income categories10% Decline in rural 5% incomes was not evenly spread; 0% Worst affected were-5% Male not the poorest but Female-10% All HHs around/above the-15% middle-20%
  21. 21. Household Income by Level of Education of Household Head and Settlement Type, 2002/3 Clear relationship6,000 between incomes and5,000 education4,000 Applies across all3,000 Settlement type2,000 settlement types1,000 Urban 0 U/vill Rural Level of education
  22. 22. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  23. 23. Structure of Labour Force Nearly have the labour force has paid jobs Total (unusual for SSA) Other half split between self-Female employed, traditional agric and unemployed Similar structures for Male male and female workers 0% 50% 100% Poverty concentrated amongst those who do Paid employee not have formal sector Self-employed/family business jobs Traditional agriculture Unemployed
  24. 24. Unemployment Rate by Gender & Age Group 40 Clear relationship 35 between age and 30 unemployment 25 Majority of Male% 20 Female unemployed are under 15 Total 30 10 Female unemployment 5 higher than male 0 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Total
  25. 25. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  26. 26. Poverty Rate (Headcount) by District60% Official poverty data50% from 2002/03 HIES not40% yet available30% Analysis of poverty20% levels published10% elsewhere shows clear0% urban-rural divide Rural NW & SW have highest poverty rates Rural SE & NE have highest poverty numbers
  27. 27. Poverty & Inequality Slow decline in poverty levels, becoming increasingly rural Comparative international data show that poverty & inequality are high for a country of Botswana’s income level Factors associated with poverty: Rural areas Female-headed households Lack of wage employment Large families/households Low levels of education
  28. 28. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  29. 29. Life Expectancy75 Projections from70 Demographic Impact of65 HIV/AIDS study60 Impact of HIV/AIDS55 clear, as well as positive impact of ART (+8yrs)50 Contrast with CSO45 projections40 External “Doomsday” projections (LE<40) not No AIDS No ART ART CSO substantiated
  30. 30. Trends in Child Age Cohorts280 Numbers of children in270 different age cohorts260 peaking and then falling250 in next few years240 Effect likely to be more230 pronounced in rural areas due to migration220210 Implications for resource planning (esp. education)200 No’s of primary school 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 enrolments already falling 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19
  31. 31. Population Pyramids 1990 2007 85 + 85 +80 - 84 80 - 8475 - 79 75 - 7970 - 74 70 - 7465 - 69 65 - 6960 - 64 60 - 6455 - 59 55 - 5950 - 54 50 - 5445 - 49 45 - 4940 - 44 40 - 4435 - 39 35 - 3930 - 34 30 - 3425 - 29 25 - 2920 - 24 20 - 2415 -19 15 -19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4
  32. 32. Other Demographic Trends Declining population growth and fertility rates Declining household size Rapidly rising no. of orphans Continued rural-urban migration Rural HHs: have “old” & “young” but missing “middle” larger than average higher dependency (children/adult) FHHs larger than average Low coverage of vital registration (births, deaths)
  33. 33. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Governance, social & human rights issues
  34. 34. HIV prevalence45 Overall HIV40 prevalence appears to3530 have peaked, although25 not a useful indicator20 in ART environment15 Longer term decline in10 younger age groups 5 0 suggests beneficial impact of awareness campaigns 15-19 20-24 25-49 Total
  35. 35. Child Health160140120100 1971 80 1981 60 1991 2001 40 20 0 Infant mortality rate Child mortality rate Under 5 mortality
  36. 36. Health Developments Improvement in wide range of health indicators reversed due to HIV/AIDS Health expenditure has increased steadily, driven by HIV/AIDS Important support from donors (approx. 20% of HIV/AIDS costs) Other health concerns remain (only partially HIV-related): TB; malaria; respiratory infections; diarrhoea; diabetes; Concern about diversion of resources and attention to HIV/AIDS resulting in possible neglect of other diseases and conditions Vertical programmes vs. building health sector
  37. 37. Access to education by region Pupil/teacher ratio, 2004 % aged 6-12 in school Orapa Kgalagadi South Sowa Gaborone Kgalagadi North North East Barolong Kgalagadi North Kgalagadi South Lobatse South East Jwaneng Orapa Ghanzi Francistown North East Selibe-Phikwe Chobe Kgatleng South East Central Bobonong Gaborone Total Ngwaketse Ngamiland South Total Central Mahalapye Kweneng West Mahalapye Kweneng EastSerowe/ Palapye Central Serowe Lobatse Sowa Ngami-North Barolong Kweneng Ngamiland North Ngami- South Central Tutume Boteti Chobe Tutume Ngwaketse West Jwaneng Bobonong Southern Selibe Phikwe Central Boteti Francistown Ghanzi 15 20 25 30 70 80 90 100
  38. 38. Access to Education by Language Group - % attended school (>12yo) Sesarwa Seyei Considerable variation Sembukushu in (historical) access toZezuru/Shona Sekgalagadi education across Herero Sebirwa language groups, with Setswapong Sesubiya remote areas less well Total Setswana served; Kalanga Afrikaans May not reflect current Ndebele situation Other English 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
  39. 39. Education Issues Primary school coverage good (literacy survey indicates 1% have not attended school) Improving secondary enrolment and completion rates High youth unemployment – relationship between schooling and employment changing as more children in school Quality & relevance of education questioned Very high levels of education spend by GoB “Cost Sharing” in secondary schools – low compliance; impact on poor families
  40. 40. Highlights of Socio-economic Review Economic structure & growth Household incomes Labour force & unemployment Poverty Demographic issues Health & education Social, Governance & Human Rights issues
  41. 41. Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Crime & Corruption Rising crime rates Botswana scores consistently highly on international corruption perceptions assessments, but concerns remain Negative impact of illegal immigration/regional instability Diminishing importance of traditional social & support structures (extended family) Changing role of dikgosi (political & social) Dominant government, weak civil society?
  42. 42. Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Access to land & housing a persistent problem Poor quality of housing for many Shortage of low income housing & financing mechanisms Restricted access to and inefficient use of land (and high prices), despite plentiful supply Traditional land allocation/tenure systems under stress Markets play a limited role National settlement policy – flexible enough?
  43. 43. Social, Governance & Human RightsDevelopments Botswana scores highly on international governance and human rights assessments But some challenging Human Rights issues have emerged over past decade: CKGR Minority tribes (constitution; languages) Gender equality HIV-related (routine testing, employment discrimination) Labour issues School fees & access to education
  44. 44. Data Issues
  45. 45. Data Issues Substantial dataset compiled, covering social, economic, demographic and environmental variables Broken down by geography, gender etc. where available Dataset guided by UN data framework for MDG monitoring Amended where appropriate for Botswana variables
  46. 46. Data Issues Botswana data is generally good, but some shortcomings Outdated in some areas Infrequent or irregular time periods (e.g. unemployment) Limited geographical breakdown Some data unreliable, inconsistent series (e.g. life expectancy, agric stats) Gaps in published data (e.g., crime) Lack of poverty data (latest comprehensive data is 1993/94) Dissemination is irregular; only summary data available online
  47. 47. Economic & Social Challenges
  48. 48. Economic & Social Challenges Inadequate economic growth, slow diversification, low investment, insufficient job creation, competitiveness concerns High unemployment, slow decline in poverty, high inequality for a country of Botswana’s income level Fiscal pressures: prospects of long-term decline in government revenues as diamonds run out, combined with ever-increasing demands for public resources
  49. 49. Unemployment & Poverty Challenges Unemployment remains a problem despite reasonably fast job creation Primarily a youth problem: majority of unemployed are under 30 Main cause of poverty is lack of jobs not low wages Poverty can only be addressed in long term by more job creation Need for reform of welfare system to support those left behind
  50. 50. Rural Development Challenges Rural areas economically weak, with declining agriculture, both arable and cattle-rearing Dependent upon government transfers and employment Falling real incomes, high poverty rates, outward migration, demographic imbalance (missing middle) Rural areas are main location of Botswana’s poverty, and rising inequality due to rural areas being left behind Long-term economic prospects poor National settlement policy needs review Revival or managed decline?
  51. 51. Demographic, Health & SocialChallenges Population structure changing due to HIV/AIDS and declining fertility, needs to be factored in to resource planning, especially education Rising crime and social problems – an unemployment issue? Unemployment and social problems may get worse as youth “bulge” passes through population HIV/AIDS remains a major health challenge, but signs of improvement Other health and child welfare indicators deteriorating – diversion of resources to HIV/AIDS? Need to rethink resource allocation?
  52. 52. Child Welfare Challenges Key issues: Children (albeit few) missing from primary schools Quality of primary and secondary education School fees Child health & survival – reversal of some previous gains Vital registration Child-headed households Orphans Mostly in the process of being addressed, but need to ensure interventions are consistent and well-designed
  53. 53. Governance Challenges Strengthening civil society Determining appropriate roles for and balance between: Central and local government Traditional and elected authorities Reducing dependence upon government Promoting balance between rights and responsibilities for both citizens and government authorities Evolution of existing consultation processes, and establishing appropriate ones for “minorities”
  54. 54. Gender Issues
  55. 55. Emerging Gender Issues Many economic and social indicators show gender bias: Unemployment: higher among females than males. Unemployment among the 20 -24 year old females is exceptionally high; household income levels differ between fhh and mhh; Poverty: higher among fhh than mhh overall; HIV prevalence rates: tend to be higher amongst females than males;
  56. 56. Emerging Gender Issues Education Higher literacy rate for females; Progress in Gross, Net Enrolment for both genders in primary and secondary schools; Progression rates to Standard 7 and Forrm 5 higher for females; Vocational education enrolment biased towards males;
  57. 57. Emerging Gender Issues Health Males marginalised from MCH/FP approach to reproductive health; Paradigm shift: National Sexual and Reproductive Health Programme Framework focuses on the need for male involvement in reproductive health delivery; Crime Gender Based Violence –the number of crimes committed by males against females (rape, defilement and femicide) is increasing due in part to increased reporting;
  58. 58. Emerging Gender Issues Inclusion of men in the fight against GBV through the male involvment initiative (MOH); Political Representation Increase in number of female MPs Iine 1999 followed by decline in 2004; Representation of females in Ntlo ya Dikgosi increasing but low; Governance Amendment of gender biased legislation marks significant progress. Civil society continues to play a key role in spearheading legislative reform.
  59. 59. Emerging Gender Issues Gender Policy Framework Progress Elevation of status of Women’s Affairs Division to Departmental Status Review of laws affecting women
  60. 60. Key Gender Challenges Gender Policy Framework continues to be female focused resulting in male backlash. Implementation mechanisms are weak. The Cultural Environment – culturally-based patriarchal beliefs and practices challenge gender equality efforts.
  61. 61. Key Gender ChallengesEducation: most access indicators not gender-biased,but gender disparities in completion of secondaryeducation, and gender stereotyping in tertiaryeducation.Health: slow pace of behavioural change.Programmes that exclude vulnerable groups.Access to and Control over Productive Resources:lower household incomes, due to womens’ limitedaccess to capital, and higher unemployment rateamong females.
  62. 62. Key Gender Challenges Leadership and decision-making: low female representation in political decision-making. Glass- ceiling and male-focused work culture impedes female progression. Legislative Reform: contradictions between customary and common law. Gender-Based Violence: lack of comprehensive approach to addressing GBV that includes law enforcers, legislators, civil society and the public.

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