Keynote commentary by Mike Muller - CP meeting Day 1

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Keynote commentary by Mike Muller - CP meeting Day 1

  1. 1. The context – Uma’s presentation <ul><li>Food and agriculture challenges are growing </li></ul><ul><li>Water is an important part of responding to them </li></ul><ul><li>S & E Africa have more opportunities than challenges </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Certainly, when compared to South Asia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Constraints mainly agriculture and land not water! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Water can support but not lead </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Will only do this if user sectors are engaged </li></ul></ul><ul><li>BRICs are transforming situation – China, India, Brazil </li></ul>
  2. 2. The context – Uma’s conclusions <ul><li>Develop an explicit country specific theory of change </li></ul><ul><li>Assess progress towards outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Adopt realistic time horizons towards ultimate goals </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce overlap, increase cooperation and complementarity between agencies with focus on outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Developing Countries’ Ownership </li></ul><ul><li>Contribute Resources </li></ul><ul><li>to </li></ul><ul><li>Mobilize Global Knowledge </li></ul>
  3. 3. Regional approaches to food and water security in the face of climate challenges (timed to support South Africa’s) (National Development Planning process)
  4. 4. <ul><li>Introduction and welcome ( Ravi Naidoo , Group Executive: Dev Planning, DBSA) </li></ul><ul><li>Purpose and approach –crossing sectors and countries ( Letitia Obeng /GWP Chair) </li></ul><ul><li>IWMI’s contribution to the challenges ( Dr Pius Chilonda /IWMI Southern Africa) </li></ul><ul><li>Keynote : Regional food & water security in context of climate change – making the cross border, cross sector connections </li></ul><ul><li>Trevor Manuel, Minister in the Presidency, </li></ul><ul><li>Chairman National Planning Commission, </li></ul><ul><li>NEPAD infrastructure champion, </li></ul><ul><li>co-chair Climate Green Fund establishment committee, </li></ul><ul><li>former chair World Bank Development Committee </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Uma Lele, GWP/CGIAR </li></ul><ul><li>Elijah Phiri NEPAD/CAAPD </li></ul><ul><li>Nick Vink, Univ Stellenbosch </li></ul><ul><li>Andre Fourie, Head, Sustainable Development, SABMiller </li></ul><ul><li>Roland Schulze IPCC/GWSP/ UKZN </li></ul><ul><li>Samson Muradzikwa, Chief Economist, DBSA </li></ul><ul><li>Wolfgang Fechter, Tongaat Hulett </li></ul><ul><li>Cameron Ironside, Programme Director, Int. Hydropower Assoc </li></ul><ul><li>Tadelle Gabrelassie, IWMI </li></ul><ul><li>Akissa Bahri, AfDB-African Water Facility </li></ul><ul><li>Judy Beaumont, Climate negotiator, SA Presidency </li></ul><ul><li>Mohamed Ait Kadi, GWP-TEC </li></ul><ul><li>Lynette Chen, NEPAD Business Foundation </li></ul><ul><li>Presentations and programme available at: </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.npconline.co.za/pebble.asp?relid=590 </li></ul>
  6. 6. challenges of variability ….
  7. 7. challenges of flood ….
  8. 8. challenges of drought …..
  9. 9. Opportunities arising …… <ul><li>GOVERNMENT GAZETTE , 6 MAY 2011 No.34263 3 </li></ul><ul><li>GOVERNMENT NOTICE </li></ul><ul><li>DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>No. R. 400 6 May 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity Regulation Act No.4 of 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity Regulations on the Integrated Resource Plan 2010-2030 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>I, Dipuo Peters, Minister of Energy, hereby under the Electricity Regulation Act, 2006 (Act No. </li></ul><ul><li>4 of2006), promulgate IRP 2010 in the Schedule. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>SCHEDULE: INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN FOR ELECTRICITY : 2010-2030 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>…… </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>6.9.8 Import hydro options: The main risks associated with the import hydro options are a delay in the construction of both the necessary grid extension and the power plants themselves, and severe, long-lasting droughts. In both cases, other dispatchable sources of generation would have to make up for the missing hydro capacity There is also a cost risk in that the assumptions used in the IRP are based on estimates from the SAPP pool plan and do not reflect any commitment on the part of potential developers. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Opportunities missed ….. Medupi Power Station is a coal-fired power plant in Lephalale, comprising of 6 units rated in total at 4 788 MW installed capacity. The initial investment decision for this base-load power station was made in 2005. Medupi means “rain that soaks parched lands, giving economic relief”. The first unit is scheduled to be commissioned in 2012, with the last unit scheduled for commissioning by 2015. This project will include super critical plant, which will result in better use of natural resources, for example, water and coal, and will have improved environmental performance. Medupi will be the biggest dry-cooled power station in the world.
  11. 11. Biofuels: Part of the problem ?
  12. 12. Or part of the solution ? 3 million livelihoods? 20% of Southern Africa’s liquid fuel?
  13. 13. Infrastructure projects underpin economies…. TCTA Trip to Katse and Mohale Feb/Mar 2003 Katse Dam, Lesotho
  14. 14. Cooperation in water in 2002… <ul><li>2002: The WSSD WaterDome, birthplace of historical Incomaputo agreement </li></ul><ul><li>“ Swaziland, Mozambique, and South Africa made water history for the African continent when they signed a water-sharing agreement governing the use of two of their shared rivers. The Interim IncoMaputo Agreement, which involves the Incomati and Maputo rivers, provides significant benefits to all three nations. The agreement immediately unlocked financial support for a major new irrigation development in Swaziland, the Lower Usuthu Smallholder Irrigation Project, which will create direct employment for 10,000 people through the development of over 11,000 hectares, providing much needed poverty relief in this area of otherwise limited economic potential.” </li></ul>
  15. 15. … produces food and livelihoods LUSIP, Swaziland, in 2010
  16. 16. Outcomes ... <ul><li>Good discussions on food security, lives and livelihoods in context of agriculture and water </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Land and water grabs”? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Lives and livelihoods vs products and profits? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Public sector perspective depressed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But private responding, with interesting models </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy (and urbanisation) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Not problems, huge opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Funding water development & management </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. Outcomes : NPC Diagnostic (June 2011) <ul><li>Planning Commission recognises importance of regional approaches </li></ul><ul><li>“ ... many of South Africa’s challenges, such as managing water and ecosystems, reducing the effects of climate change, and developing infrastructure (road, rail, water, energy and broadband) require both a regional perspective and regional initiatives.” </li></ul><ul><li>“ ... Southern Africa has significant hydroelectric power potential, but for both technical and political reasons, it will be many years before the opportunity that these offer can be developed to its full extent.” </li></ul>
  18. 18. Outcomes <ul><li>Regional water resources offer opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Food security: Region could produce far more – Brazil X3! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Markets are a challenge, equity even more so </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Could produce 20% of liquid fuels from sugar </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need harmonised trade and standards, allow access to markets </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Substantial hydropower potential </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Needs cooperation to tap, could fund infra for other users as well </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Private sector taking the lead </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Recognising responsibilities as well as opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accept lives and livelihoods as well as products and profits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can incorporate production into their value chain </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Need public sector framework within which to work </li></ul><ul><li>Door open for GWP - need to take it forward </li></ul>

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