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C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

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C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

  1. 1. C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward Alexander Ochs CSEV IV, Georgetown/Barbados,13-14 Nov 2014
  2. 2. Worldwatch in the Caribbean Dominican Republic Wind and Solar Roadmap EEP, 2012 Sustainable Energy Roadmaps in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica ICI of the German Government, 2013 & 2014 10 Islands Profiles & Regional Matrix Carbon War Room, 2014 Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Lucia Water and Energy Regulation Studies & Synthesis Report of Lessons Learned ADB, 2014 Study on the Development of the Renewable Energy Market in Latin America & the Caribbean IDB, 2014 C-SERMS Phase I Baseline Report CARICOM & IDB, 2013 (first draft); REETA/GIZ update 2014 Collaborating with many additional stakeholders in the region
  3. 3. Technical Assessment • Energy Efficiency Potential • Renewable Energy Potential • Grid Solutions Business Investigation • Financing Gap Analysis • Domestic Reform & Capacity Building • International Support & Cooperation Socio-Economic Analysis • Levelized Cost of Energy + (LCOE+) • Energy Scenarios • Macroeconomic Effects Sustainable Energy Roadmaps Policy Recommendations • Vision & Long-Term Goals • Concrete Policy Mechanisms • Governance & Administrative Efficiency
  4. 4. The Need for Regional Energy Cooperation in the Caribbean
  5. 5. Selected CARICOM Energy & Development Challenges Technical Socioeconomic Environmental • Unmet existing and future demand • Isolated and small grid networks • Small size of individual national markets • Outdated equipment • Low efficiency • Energy poverty • High electricity tariffs • Vulnerability to rising, volatile fuel prices • Missed opportunities for domestic investment and jobs • Local air, freshwater and ocean pollution • Deforestation • Degradation and depletion of natural habitats, ecosystems and resources • Global climate change © Worldwatch Institute
  6. 6. Opportunities of Regional Cooperation Draw on a common vision and shared goals Share best practices, experience, and expertise Leverage combined economic resources and complementary renewable energy resources Take advantage of cost-effective energy supply options by creating a regional energy market Bundle projects to attract finance Build regional supply chains
  7. 7. C-SERMS Phase 1 Methodology
  8. 8. C-SERMS Phase 1 Assessing Current Status and Potential Reg’l & Nat’l Targets Priority Initiatives, Policies, Projects, and 2017 Activities (PIPPA) 2022 2027 • Renewable Power Generation • Energy Efficiency Improvements • CO2 Emissions Reductions • Regional Recommendations • National Recommendations Energy System Analysis: • Electricity Sector • Transportation Sector • Production, Consumption, Transmission & Distribution • CO2 Emissions Identifying Potential: • Renewable Resource Potential • Energy Efficiency Potential • Infrastructure Needs Policy Assessment: • Governance & Administration • RE and EE Support Goals & Policies • Emissions Reduction Goals & Policies Roadmap for the Caribbean Setting a common vision © Worldwatch Institute
  9. 9. Current Energy Situation and Future Development Pathways
  10. 10. CARICOM Renewable Energy Potential Key: Extremely High (>100%) Very High (50-100%) High (20-50%) Medium (0-20%) None/ Low Unknown Hydro Wind Geo-thermal Solar Biomass/ Other Antigua and Barbuda The Bahamas Barbados Belize Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago
  11. 11. RE Costs vs. Electricity Tariffs 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Typical Energy Cost (US cents/kWh)  Montserrat • Antigua & Barbuda © Worldwatch Institute • Dominica   Belize • Suriname  Guyana • The Bahamas St. Lucia • Jamaica • St. Vincent & the Grenadines
  12. 12. Selected potential game changers in the Caribbean Future Sustainable Energy System in the Caribbean Expanded use of distributed renewables Increased deployment of mainstream renewable energy technologies Geothermal energy development Improved energy efficiency Regional electricity interconnection Eventual use of nascent renewable energy technologies
  13. 13. Regional Targets
  14. 14. CARICOM Regional Targets Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All Member States Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs to 2030 Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity Share 2017: 20% 2022: 28% 2027: 47%
  15. 15. RE & CO2 Targets Horizon Target Year CARICOM Sustainable Energy Targets adopted by CARICOM member states CARICOM Emissions Reduction Targets (CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector against BAU) Short Term (5 years) 2017 20% 18% Medium Term (10 years) 2022 28% 32% Long Term (15 years) 2027 47% 46%
  16. 16. National Targets
  17. 17. Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All Member States Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs to 2030 Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity Share 2017: 20% 2022: 28% 2027: 47% Natl’ Resource Assessments RE Baseload Potential Existing National Targets Targets for Specific Member States Suggesting National Targets Viable Additions of Intermittent Resources
  18. 18. Suggested National Targets Country Estimated National Renewable Share of Installed Capacity to Meet Regional Target of 48% by 2027 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Generation in 2027 (based on installed capacity target) Antigua and Barbuda 61% 62% The Bahamas 55% 51% Barbados 67% 55% Belize 76% 85% Dominica 56% 100% Grenada 70% 100% Guyana 84% 90% Haiti 46% 52% Jamaica 58% 40% Montserrat 34% 100% St. Kitts and Nevis St. Kitts: 57%; Nevis: 67% St Kitts: 100%; Nevis: 100% St. Lucia 69% 100% St. Vincent and the Grenadines 59% 81% Suriname 52% 60% Trinidad and Tobago 52% 29%
  19. 19. Smart Policy-Making
  20. 20. Components of successful sustainable energy promotion Long-term vision Concrete policies and mechanisms Successful Promotion of Sustainable Energy Effective governance structures and administrative processes
  21. 21. Key: In place In development Suggested © Worldwatch Institute Existing Policy Environment
  22. 22. Institutional and governance challenges in CARICOM Overlapping/opposing mandates and priorities among various government agencies and institutions Few CARICOM member states have significant capacity dedicated exclusively to energy issues Resource constraints (human capacity, small budgets, limited staff, diverse responsibilities) In some member states, continuing dominance of single utility monopolies in the electricity sector
  23. 23. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  24. 24. Existing Data Gaps Electricity System/Infrastructure • Thorough analysis of electricity end users • Detailed data on fuel import costs • Assessment of grid functionality and storage potential • Detailed data on power plants in operation • Updated power sector capacity plans Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency • Renewable energy’s cost effectiveness not calculated, understood or communicated • Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology feasibility studies • Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not conducted and/or communicated • Resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not conducted and/or communicated • Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated
  25. 25. Existing Data Gaps Transportation • Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation • Updated sector plans and strategies CO2 Emissions • Updated greenhouse gas inventories • Sectoral emissions data • Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies Policy and Administration • National-level assessments of institutional/governance effectiveness • National-level assessment of policy effectiveness and efficiency
  26. 26. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  27. 27. Regional Priorities SHORT TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Set Regional Standards     Mainstream Renewable Energy    Build Capacity in Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI)    
  28. 28. Regional Priorities MEDIUM TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Develop Targeted Financing Tools to Support Key High Impact Areas        Build Capacities with Key Supporting Stakeholders       Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified        Support and Manage Regional Electricity Interconnection        
  29. 29. Regional Priorities LONG TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Coordinate Information Gathering and Communication                Conduct Regional Assessment of Technological Lessons Learned                Coordinate International Finance & Initiatives in the Region                Support Design of National Sustainable Energy Programs & Implementation Plans               
  30. 30. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  31. 31. National Priorities SHORT TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Incentivize Renewable Generation Through Regulatory Reform     Support Energy Efficiency Through Targeted Legislation     De-Monopolize Grid Access and Encourage IPP Generation      Maximize Societal Benefits of Sustainable Energy   
  32. 32. National Priorities MEDIUM TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Implement Policies to Support the Growth of Renewable Energy in the Transportation Sector       Improve Institutional Effectiveness       Simplify Regulatory Compliance Mechanisms       Conduct and Communicate Key Resource and Technical Assessments         Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified       
  33. 33. National Priorities LONG TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Utilize Government Resources to Promote Renewable Energy                Ensure Policy Effectiveness               
  34. 34. Thank you! Alexander Ochs Director of Climate and Energy aochs@worldwatch.org +1 202 745 8092 x511

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