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C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

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C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward

  1. 1. C-SERMS Phase 1 Baseline Report & Suggestions for Moving Forward Alexander Ochs CSEV IV, Georgetown/Barbados,13-14 Nov 2014
  2. 2. Worldwatch in the Caribbean Dominican Republic Wind and Solar Roadmap EEP, 2012 Sustainable Energy Roadmaps in the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica ICI of the German Government, 2013 & 2014 10 Islands Profiles & Regional Matrix Carbon War Room, 2014 Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, St. Lucia Water and Energy Regulation Studies & Synthesis Report of Lessons Learned ADB, 2014 Study on the Development of the Renewable Energy Market in Latin America & the Caribbean IDB, 2014 C-SERMS Phase I Baseline Report CARICOM & IDB, 2013 (first draft); REETA/GIZ update 2014 Collaborating with many additional stakeholders in the region
  3. 3. Technical Assessment • Energy Efficiency Potential • Renewable Energy Potential • Grid Solutions Business Investigation • Financing Gap Analysis • Domestic Reform & Capacity Building • International Support & Cooperation Socio-Economic Analysis • Levelized Cost of Energy + (LCOE+) • Energy Scenarios • Macroeconomic Effects Sustainable Energy Roadmaps Policy Recommendations • Vision & Long-Term Goals • Concrete Policy Mechanisms • Governance & Administrative Efficiency
  4. 4. The Need for Regional Energy Cooperation in the Caribbean
  5. 5. Selected CARICOM Energy & Development Challenges Technical Socioeconomic Environmental • Unmet existing and future demand • Isolated and small grid networks • Small size of individual national markets • Outdated equipment • Low efficiency • Energy poverty • High electricity tariffs • Vulnerability to rising, volatile fuel prices • Missed opportunities for domestic investment and jobs • Local air, freshwater and ocean pollution • Deforestation • Degradation and depletion of natural habitats, ecosystems and resources • Global climate change © Worldwatch Institute
  6. 6. Opportunities of Regional Cooperation Draw on a common vision and shared goals Share best practices, experience, and expertise Leverage combined economic resources and complementary renewable energy resources Take advantage of cost-effective energy supply options by creating a regional energy market Bundle projects to attract finance Build regional supply chains
  7. 7. C-SERMS Phase 1 Methodology
  8. 8. C-SERMS Phase 1 Assessing Current Status and Potential Reg’l & Nat’l Targets Priority Initiatives, Policies, Projects, and 2017 Activities (PIPPA) 2022 2027 • Renewable Power Generation • Energy Efficiency Improvements • CO2 Emissions Reductions • Regional Recommendations • National Recommendations Energy System Analysis: • Electricity Sector • Transportation Sector • Production, Consumption, Transmission & Distribution • CO2 Emissions Identifying Potential: • Renewable Resource Potential • Energy Efficiency Potential • Infrastructure Needs Policy Assessment: • Governance & Administration • RE and EE Support Goals & Policies • Emissions Reduction Goals & Policies Roadmap for the Caribbean Setting a common vision © Worldwatch Institute
  9. 9. Current Energy Situation and Future Development Pathways
  10. 10. CARICOM Renewable Energy Potential Key: Extremely High (>100%) Very High (50-100%) High (20-50%) Medium (0-20%) None/ Low Unknown Hydro Wind Geo-thermal Solar Biomass/ Other Antigua and Barbuda The Bahamas Barbados Belize Dominica Grenada Guyana Haiti Jamaica Montserrat St. Kitts and Nevis St. Lucia St. Vincent and the Grenadines Suriname Trinidad and Tobago
  11. 11. RE Costs vs. Electricity Tariffs 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Typical Energy Cost (US cents/kWh)  Montserrat • Antigua & Barbuda © Worldwatch Institute • Dominica   Belize • Suriname  Guyana • The Bahamas St. Lucia • Jamaica • St. Vincent & the Grenadines
  12. 12. Selected potential game changers in the Caribbean Future Sustainable Energy System in the Caribbean Expanded use of distributed renewables Increased deployment of mainstream renewable energy technologies Geothermal energy development Improved energy efficiency Regional electricity interconnection Eventual use of nascent renewable energy technologies
  13. 13. Regional Targets
  14. 14. CARICOM Regional Targets Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All Member States Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs to 2030 Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity Share 2017: 20% 2022: 28% 2027: 47%
  15. 15. RE & CO2 Targets Horizon Target Year CARICOM Sustainable Energy Targets adopted by CARICOM member states CARICOM Emissions Reduction Targets (CO2 emissions reductions in the power sector against BAU) Short Term (5 years) 2017 20% 18% Medium Term (10 years) 2022 28% 32% Long Term (15 years) 2027 47% 46%
  16. 16. National Targets
  17. 17. Documented Renewable Resource Potential Across All Member States Projected Regional Power Capacity Needs to 2030 Regional Targets for Renewable Electricity Capacity Share 2017: 20% 2022: 28% 2027: 47% Natl’ Resource Assessments RE Baseload Potential Existing National Targets Targets for Specific Member States Suggesting National Targets Viable Additions of Intermittent Resources
  18. 18. Suggested National Targets Country Estimated National Renewable Share of Installed Capacity to Meet Regional Target of 48% by 2027 Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Generation in 2027 (based on installed capacity target) Antigua and Barbuda 61% 62% The Bahamas 55% 51% Barbados 67% 55% Belize 76% 85% Dominica 56% 100% Grenada 70% 100% Guyana 84% 90% Haiti 46% 52% Jamaica 58% 40% Montserrat 34% 100% St. Kitts and Nevis St. Kitts: 57%; Nevis: 67% St Kitts: 100%; Nevis: 100% St. Lucia 69% 100% St. Vincent and the Grenadines 59% 81% Suriname 52% 60% Trinidad and Tobago 52% 29%
  19. 19. Smart Policy-Making
  20. 20. Components of successful sustainable energy promotion Long-term vision Concrete policies and mechanisms Successful Promotion of Sustainable Energy Effective governance structures and administrative processes
  21. 21. Key: In place In development Suggested © Worldwatch Institute Existing Policy Environment
  22. 22. Institutional and governance challenges in CARICOM Overlapping/opposing mandates and priorities among various government agencies and institutions Few CARICOM member states have significant capacity dedicated exclusively to energy issues Resource constraints (human capacity, small budgets, limited staff, diverse responsibilities) In some member states, continuing dominance of single utility monopolies in the electricity sector
  23. 23. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  24. 24. Existing Data Gaps Electricity System/Infrastructure • Thorough analysis of electricity end users • Detailed data on fuel import costs • Assessment of grid functionality and storage potential • Detailed data on power plants in operation • Updated power sector capacity plans Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency • Renewable energy’s cost effectiveness not calculated, understood or communicated • Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology feasibility studies • Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not conducted and/or communicated • Resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not conducted and/or communicated • Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated
  25. 25. Existing Data Gaps Transportation • Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation • Updated sector plans and strategies CO2 Emissions • Updated greenhouse gas inventories • Sectoral emissions data • Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies Policy and Administration • National-level assessments of institutional/governance effectiveness • National-level assessment of policy effectiveness and efficiency
  26. 26. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  27. 27. Regional Priorities SHORT TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Set Regional Standards     Mainstream Renewable Energy    Build Capacity in Research, Development, and Innovation (RDI)    
  28. 28. Regional Priorities MEDIUM TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Develop Targeted Financing Tools to Support Key High Impact Areas        Build Capacities with Key Supporting Stakeholders       Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified        Support and Manage Regional Electricity Interconnection        
  29. 29. Regional Priorities LONG TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Coordinate Information Gathering and Communication                Conduct Regional Assessment of Technological Lessons Learned                Coordinate International Finance & Initiatives in the Region                Support Design of National Sustainable Energy Programs & Implementation Plans               
  30. 30. Identifying Priorities 1. Closing Existing Data Gaps 2. Regional Level 3. National Level
  31. 31. National Priorities SHORT TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Incentivize Renewable Generation Through Regulatory Reform     Support Energy Efficiency Through Targeted Legislation     De-Monopolize Grid Access and Encourage IPP Generation      Maximize Societal Benefits of Sustainable Energy   
  32. 32. National Priorities MEDIUM TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Implement Policies to Support the Growth of Renewable Energy in the Transportation Sector       Improve Institutional Effectiveness       Simplify Regulatory Compliance Mechanisms       Conduct and Communicate Key Resource and Technical Assessments         Conduct On-Site Feasibility Studies for Priority Resources Identified       
  33. 33. National Priorities LONG TERM 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 2 2 0 2 4 2 0 2 6 Utilize Government Resources to Promote Renewable Energy                Ensure Policy Effectiveness               
  34. 34. Thank you! Alexander Ochs Director of Climate and Energy aochs@worldwatch.org +1 202 745 8092 x511

Editor's Notes

  • Here’s what made us famous, Why we were invited by CARICOM, IDB, the German Government, GIZ to help with this Regional Roadmap
    Importance of INTEGRATED ANALYSIS
    Many people these days say, we do not need more studies, we need action; I work for a non-fo-profit b/c I am also driven by creating a better place through action; but what is guiding this action? but information in these individual areas often still does not exist, and if it does, it is piecemeal
    Intelligent policy-making has accurate and reliable information at hand, it integrates them to find the best pathway forward
    Didn’t have the same level of ambition in C-SERMS 1 – b/c there wasn’t the time & resources to do that – rather a baseline report suggesting priorities for moving forward and identifying gaps, rather than filling them already
  • few CARICOM member states have any significant fossil fuel resources of their own,
     reliance on fuel imports (mostly peroleum products for both electricity generation and transportation) is extremely high
    big exception is Trinidad and Tobago, where energy production is a major cornerstone of the economy.
    Reliance on fossil fuels contributes to high electricity tariffs as well as a number of local environmental challenges such as pollution as well as contributing to climate change
    Although many CARICOM member states have high rates of electricity access, expanding electricity access remains a priority
    in several countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and
    particularly Haiti, where only 25 percent of the population has access to power.
    Given the overall size of Haiti’s population (nearly 10 million people), only approximately half of CARICOM’s nearly 17 million people have electricity access.

    Here is an overview of the challenges that CARICOM nations have in common


  • So here is the approach we took, in a relatively short time frame
  • Enormous expected Growth of Energy Demand – in most places the demand for energy at least doubles in the next 15 years
     Business as usual  Shows the importance of energy savings and energy efficiency
  • Tremendous potential exists in many countries to meet most or all of current demand with renewables.
    Want to make sure that this table does not send the wrong message. What is For this table technology potential is measured in respect to its measured share of peak demand in each member state
    There are many assessment gaps that still exist which must be filled in order to facilitate project development

    Geothermal: particularly the islands making up the volcanic arc of the Lesser Antilles, have significant untapped geothermal resources. Development of this resource in member states such as Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines could dramatically alter the energy balance of these islands and the region as a whole if regional grid interconnections are developed. Currently, no CARICOM state has developed geothermal power, although exploratory drilling and preliminary investigations are under way in several places.

    Hydropower: Large hydropower comprises the majority of renewable power generation within CARICOM. Development of large-scale hydropower facilities such as the 165 MW Amalia Falls project in Guyana stands to play a significant role in the changing energy mix. Like geothermal, hydropower presents opportunities to broaden and interconnect regional energy markets, particularly in mainland member states like Guyana and Suriname. Small hydro plants, typically classified as generating less than 10 MW of electricity, have significant ecological and often human rights advantages, but development feasibility (especially for run-of-the-river systems) requires specific site characteristics that preclude its use in several small-island CARICOM member states. Elsewhere, the potential for small, sustainable hydro deployment is enormous, particularly for providing electricity access to remote, currently underserviced populations, e.g., in the mainland countries as well as Haiti.

    Modern biomass (including bagasse and biogas): Belize is a regional leader in the use of bioenergy as a baseload energy source. Many CARICOM member states, particularly those on the mainland and the larger island states, have good biomass potential. Waste-to-energy technologies have drawn some attention throughout the region, although their viability is restricted in those states with limited waste collection capacity or comparatively small populations, as these do not generate the volumes of waste necessary to make waste-to-energy plants economically viable. In Haiti, the identified potential for waste-to-energy technologies has so far been constrained by infrastructural challenges and a lack of waste collection capacity.

    Solar: All CARICOM member states possess strong solar energy potential and opportunities to use various solar technologies for power generation, heating, and cooling—making solar technology a crucial, but yet mostly unused, regional sustainable energy solution. The high component costs that have traditionally plagued solar technologies have declined significantly, with solar PV module costs falling nearly 50 percent in 2011 alone, making solar cost-competitive with fossil fuels under certain conditions. Several CARICOM states have already demonstrated enormous success using solar water heating (with Barbados being a global leader in this technology) and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy.
    Wind: There is also strong regional potential for wind power development. Many experts consider wind the most viable renewable energy technology for rapid expansion in the region over the next two decades. Currently, however, few CARICOM member states have developed utility-scale wind infrastructure, aside from Jamaica, which now has over 40 MW of installed wind capacity, and St. Kitts and Nevis, which has 2 MW installed.

    Ocean energy: Energy technologies including wave and tidal and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) technologies have been identified as a priority area under the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Sustainable Energy Initiative (SIDS DOCK), as they offer significant potential throughout the region, presenting opportunities including power generation and the use of deep-sea cooling in the tourism sector. As of May 2012, marine energy technologies remain in the development phase, however, and they still have prohibitively high costs that limit their deployment in the short-term. CARICOM member states are currently taking steps to advance pilot projects for OTEC, although the technologies’ long-term potential in the region is restricted by factors including uncertain technology development and project scale.
  • Based on global average generation costs many RE technologies are already cost competitive based on the high electricity rates currently found in CARICOM member states
    Note: Figure depicts the global range of generation costs for a number of renewable energy technologies, places them within the range of CARICOM electricity tariffs (4.5–38.2 U.S. cents/kWh, and provides example tariffs in select countries with strong potential for that particular resource.
  • reliance on fossil fuels (mainly residual and distillate fuel oils as a result of the widespread use of diesel generators).
    few CARICOM member states have any significant fossil fuel resources, regional reliance on fuel imports is extremely high
    one big exception is Trinidad and Tobago, where energy production is a major cornerstone of the economy.
    Reliance on fossil fuels contributes to high electricity tariffs as well as a number of local environmental challenges such as pollution as well as contributing to climate change
    Although most CARICOM member states have high rates of electricity access, expanding electricity access remains a priority
    in several countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, and
    particularly Haiti, where only 25 percent of the population has access to power. Given the overall size of Haiti’s population (nearly 10 million people), only approximately half of CARICOM’s nearly 17 million people have electricity access.


  • Energy Efficiency
  • As for energy efficiency – our limited information suggests that it is possible to reduce energy intensity by 33%
    Achieving these regional goals will require targeted actions at the national level supported by regional collaboration.
  • Many policies have been enacted, however many gaps still exist in the policy frameworks of CARICOM member states

    While these policies have been identified an assessment of policy effectiveness is needed to ensure each is having the intended impact

    SUGGGESTED MEANS SUGGESTED BY GOV’T DOCUMENTS – NOT SUGGESTED BY US – WE WOULD OF COURSE SUGGEST THAT ALL OF THIS US IS GREEN
  • Several critical data and information gaps exist in the Caribbean. While information for CARICOM member states is most readily available in the electricity sector, detailed energy data in this and other sectors—particularly transportation—is severely lacking. This impedes analysis and strategic planning. While some degree of clarity can be obtained with respect to energy production and consumption as well as specific fuel usage across the region, current data limitations make it extremely challenging to assess energy end-use in CARICOM. Without this information, an accurate breakdown of sectoral energy use cannot be developed. Additionally, assessing the economic effects of the region’s energy system is hindered by lack of available data on value and volume of fossil fuel imports

    To fully understand the future role RE and EE can play in the region more detailed technical assessment must be conducted and communicated. Understanding the potential for energy efficiency is crucial because of its compounding effects: when a user demands one less unit of energy because of efficiency measures, the system typically saves much more than one unit of produced energy because of avoided losses during generation, transmission, and distribution. Especially in countries like Haiti, where technical and non-technical losses are relatively high, end-user efficiency savings can translate into much greater savings in generation. Even in areas where the necessary RE and EE assessments have been completed, the results are often not communicated and the assessments themselves are unavailable
  • Thorough analysis of electricity end-users
    Data often not collected or reported
    Detailed data on fuel import costs
    Data lacking on economic impact of current energy matrix
    Assessment of grid functionality and storage potentials
    Information lacking on the extent to which existing electricity networks must be updated
    Detailed data on power plants in operation
    Readily available information lacking on the current status and operation of existing plants
    Updated power sector capacity plans
    Available information often out of date; existing plans may change without public notification
    Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation
    Data often disorganized or uncollected
    Updated sector plans and strategies
    Available information often out of date

    Lack of widespread calculation, understanding, and communication of renewable energy’s cost effectiveness
    (continuing perception of renewable energy as prohibitively expensive)
    Unavailability of renewable energy assessments and technology feasibility studies
    (data often not disseminated for project development)
    Higher-resolution assessments for priority geographic locations not conducted and/or communicated
    (in member states without existing detailed resource assessments, research should focus on priority areas near greatest potential and demand)
    Analysis of opportunities for resource complementarity in integrated energy planning not conducted and/or communicated
    (individual assessments usually assess one renewable resource in isolation, missing critical opportunities for complementarity)
    Energy audits not conducted and/or communicated
    (limited data on the energy efficiency of sectors, businesses, etc.)



  • Coordinated data collection and analysis of transportation
    Data often disorganized or uncollected
    Updated sector plans and strategies
    Available information often out of date
    Updated emissions reduction plans and strategies
    Available information often out of date
    Updated greenhouse gas inventories
    Information provided to UNFCCC often out of date
    Sectoral emissions data
    Collected data lacking specificity required for effective policy design

    While policy and administration mechanisms have been identified in C-SERMS I a more thorough understanding of both policy and administrative effectiveness will be necessary to encourage growth in the sector.

  • Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.

    Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects
  • Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.

    Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects
  • Focus on filling information gaps, including coordinating data collection processes and commissioning the missing technical assessments for RE and EE.

    Making publically available and successfully communicating the results of existing information within the region, a step which is often overlooked, will have a significant impact on building support for RE projects
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