This is a talk I gave in 2019 to an economic delegation at Austrade's offices in Sydney. Attendees included Chile’s Minister for the Economy, Jose Ramon Valente. The presentation outlines TAHPI's Data Science and BIM products that can assist with healthcare planning, use of these products to shape health policy can have significant ecenomic benifits for country scale economies.

1. 1
Efficient Healthcare Capacity Planning at Country Scale
tahpi.net

2. International Health Planners
London
Office
Activity
Dubai
Coimbatore
Hong Kong
Kuala Lumpur
Sydney
A leader in the field of health planning and
design, TAHPI is headquartered in Sydney,
Australia and Dubai, UAE with an
international network of branches. TAHPI is
strategically placed to provide the A to Z of
Health Planning.
TAHPI offers comprehensive specialised
services for healthcare projects, including:
Health Service Planning
Health Software Development
Health Facility Standards & Guidelines
Health Facility Planning
Architectural Design
Health Interior Design
MEP & MEQ Planning
Health Project Management
Modular Design
Facilities Management

3. Health Service Planning - Data Driven Design
Integrating data into facility design

4. Health Service Planning - Capabilities
International Health Planners
• Health Demand Modelling & Projections
• Health Organisation Capacity Planning
• Big Data Analytics
• Models of Care & Service Delivery
• Population Modelling
• Financial Modelling
• Master Planning
• Business Case Development
• Healthcare Market & Feasibility Assessments
• Operational Planning
• Workforce & Resources Assessments
• Health Management Frameworks
• Project Planning
• Compliance & Due Diligence Reviews
• Health System Reviews & Evaluation
• Planning Systems & Tools

5. Capacity Planning – Economic benefits
- Improving the understanding of population health needs to prioritise capacity building
and restructure to create an efficient health system.
- Ensuring that capital investment is targeted at the right place for the right people at
the right time
- Improving the understanding of current assets, formulating strategies for expansion
and models of care to reduce technical inefficiencies.
- Evidence-based business case to reduce the misallocation of resources

6. Suite of Smart Health Planning Software

7. Capacity Planning – Methodology Overview
Population Modelling
Population growth, coverage and
flow modelling for study catchments
Supply Capture
Aggregation, centralisation and
validation of a live pipeline of
current and planned supply data
Demand Profile
Projected needs-based demand
specific to region, disease profile
and population structure
Gap Analysis
Current and projected gaps by activity and
Key Planning Units for all service types and
casemix groups. Used to conduct supply
planning and priority setting
Strategy & Recommendations
Development of models of care, health
services planning, policies, priorities and
strategic direction documents.

8. Capacity Planning - Work Flow

9. Supply Capture - Overview
• Supply is the total amount of a services that are available and
used by consumers, shown by current and planned future
capacity.
• Supply is captured through multiple sources such as licensing,
statistics and surveys – centralised within the Supply Capture
Module
• Supply information captured includes facility information,
capacity, utilisation and workforce by specialty.
• Supply capture is cross-validation amongst all available data sets
to create a uniform and centralized repository of data.

10. Supply Capture - Real Time Integration
Aggregation and Integration
Supply Capture acts as a live repository of disparate data sets, aggregating data from different sources and
creating a live pipeline of supply information. This information provides insight into current and planned
supply as well as creating a centralised database for planners and decision makers to reference from.
Cross Validation
A in-depth validation process to ensure validity of capacity and activity supply information is cross-
referenced across multiple data sets. This process aligns frameworks and allows for direct comparison for
validation but also an added layer of analysis.
Utilisation
From the cross-validation process, an analysis of allocated capacity versus utilized capacity can be
performed to assess the built capacity buffer in the healthcare system. Gap analysis and recommendations
are able to use this information to better understand the need for added or repurposed healthcare capacity

11. Demand Profile - Overview
Health service demand projections using the Demand
Module, developed using refined international population-
based reference datasets from around the world to project
service demand by key capacity measures for the full range of
health service types. Reference datasets have been developed
from health service data from Australia, UK, USA, the World
Bank, WHO and the OECD for participating countries.
The reference datasets have been refined to create demand
models for primary, secondary and tertiary care to a Service
Specialty and casemix level, using more than 10 years of
historical data to project demand into the future for up to 20
years

12. Demand for healthcare is a needs-based demand profile dependent on the current and projected population structure and size.
Multiple population series are modelled to test different growth and flow scenarios
Demand Profile – Population Modelling
250 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Population Thousands
Agegroup
Nationals
Non-NationalsFemale Male
3.1
3.5
4.6
5.5
3.1
3.4
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.3
3.7
4.0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Population
High scenario
Medium scenario
Low scenario

13. Demand profile is specific to the local burden of disease (BOD) factors for each clinical service line. This
ensures that demand is reflective of local diseases and risk factors
BOD adjustments are specific to ICD chapter and year, capturing trends specific to each disease group.
Demand Profile – Localisation
Disability Adjusted Life Years = Years Lived with Disability + Years of Life Lost
A measure of overall burden of disease, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health, disability or early death

14. 1 72 50,000
250,000
1,200,000
Numberofrates
LessSpecificMoreSpecific
Reference datasets have been developed from health service data from Australia, UK, USA, the World Bank,
WHO and the OECD for participating countries. These are characteristically from well-developed health
systems, in a relative equilibrium of supply and demand, with more than a five-year time series available of
health service data.
The reference datasets allow for detailed demand modelling that is granular, sensitive to the current and
projected population structure and specific to analyse demand by specialty casemix. This method ensures
that the demand profile is reflective of the local population structure, disease profile and service trends.
Demand Profile – Reference dataset
Crude rate only
+ Age, Gender &
Demographic specific
+ DRG specific
+ Year specific (trends)
+ Burden of
disease specific
(by ICD chapter
and year)

15. To better assess catchment sufficiency and patient movement for service, patient flow is analysed into current and projected
catchment segments. Each geographic or service catchment is analysed for a non-flow (patient seeking care within
catchment), inflow (patients arriving) or outflow (patients departing).
Demand Profile – Flow Analysis
Place of residence
Place of treatment
Remote consultation
Hospital transfers

16. Demand Profile – Demand Module
The TAHPI Demand Module enables users to create population specific demand studies to project demand by activity, stay
periods and key planning units specific to the DRG level over the next 20 years.
Users are able to test different population growth, catchment coverage and utilisation scenarios within the module.

17. Gap Analysis – Overview
• Gap Analysis is the comparison of supply and
demand, highlighting deficiencies in capacity or
utilisation
• Gap is adjusted for relative utilisation to account
for local trends and operational metrics
• Gap is represented through 10 Key Planning
Units (KPU) for each service line and casemix
• Gap results are integrated into a variety of
capacity planning modules for user-friendly
access

18. Gap analysis shows priorities for investment, reallocation of capacity, demand mitigation and guides policy
and strategic direction.
Gaps are projected up to 20 years for 10 service types and is displayed by episodes, stay periods and Key
Planning Units (KPU).
Gap Analysis – Casemix Framework
Service Type KPU
Acute Overnight Care Beds
Acute Same Day Care Places
Non-Acute Overnight Care Beds
Intensive Care Beds
Emergency Department Bays
Operating (Elective) Theatres
Operating (Emergency) Theatres
Outpatients Rooms
Workforce FTE

19. A steady regression towards the reference demand profile ensures relevance to local service utilisation rates and
trends whilst allowing for improvements in efficiency and performance at a safe and achievable rate. This
regression addresses both an under- or over-utilisation of healthcare services and sets an achievable goal for
capacity and health service design.
Gap Analysis – Relative Utilisation
Utilisationofservices
Regression

20. The gap visualisation module provides the user with an interactive, web-based analysis report that visualises supply,
demand and gaps in the current and future state
Gap Analysis – Visualisation

21. Geospatial Analysis
Through the use of advanced Geographic
Information Systems software, TAHPI is able to
provide:
• Visualisation of data aggregation and synthesis
• Interactive web-based reports
• Customisable base layers and styles
• Population Density and Capacity analysis
• Drive time analysis
• Hub and spoke modelling
• Reversal of flow analysis
• Business rule calculations
• Referral pattern analysis
• Self-sufficiency and coverage analysis
• And more…

22. Financial Modelling
TAHPI provides forecast financial modelling to assist with feasibility
studies, business case reviews and operational costing models.
Feasibility modelling for facilities:
• A dynamic and customisable 3-way financial model with income
statement, balance sheet and cash flow statements, with
detailed accounting and financial metrics for decision making.
• Capital and operational costs based on space requirements
outlined by the Schedule of Accommodation.
• Capital and equity profiles with key investment measures
• Human Resource and Medical Equipment Planning
• Comprehensive activity and revenue profile by service type and
Key Planning Unit, benchmarked to local comparators.
Operational costing for health services
• Through the use of demand profile at a DRG level, operational
costing can be directly derived through activity and efficiency
measures.
• By utilising benchmarks and operational ratios, workforce
planning can be tied to activity and capacity ramp ups.

23. E-Licensing
Supply Capture MapLicensing
Integration and streamlining of the health facility licensing
process with the Planning Tools enables real-time updates to
the survey and supply of services, and live adjustments to
publicly-accessible maps of healthcare facilities and services,
as modifications are made and approved internally to license
applications
The E-Licensing platform allows:
• Improvement in the oversight and visibility of health
facility license applications
• Greater transparency to applicants on the status of their
health facility license applications with the inclusion of
self-service license application tools
• A system that is easily updatable and configurable to
change the information required from the applicant
• Reporting of key metrics to improve oversight of health
facility licensing

24. TAHPI provides over 20 years of international experience in Heath
Facility Guidelines (HFG). Web and application-based HFG allows for
establishment of the minimum appropriate and acceptance
guidelines for Health Facility Applications, Design and Construction. It
provides a framework for the approval and licensing of hospitals and
other health facilities and is fully localised to comply with local laws.
HFGs include:
• Up to 50 Functional Planning Units (FPU) or Departments
• Definition and Staff Structure
• Operational Models
• Schedules of Accommodation (SOA)
• Functional Relationship Diagrams (FRD)
Health Facility Guidelines
Authors of:
• International: International Health Facility Guidelines (iHFG), UN
(UNICEF) HFG
• Country specific: Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Indian, Singapore, Sharjah,
KSA, PNG, Design Guidelines for Hospitals and Day Procedure
Centres (DGHDP) Victoria, AHFG Australasian Standard
Components

25. Key Projects – Dubai Health Authority
The Dubai Clinical Services Capacity Plan 2018-2030 is a periodic
study conducted to understand the current healthcare sector,
the demand, supply and existing and future gaps of services.
The study was conducted across government and private
sectors in Dubai, capturing supply data from over 1,500 health
facilities. The data collected and developed was validated and
analysed to provide a comprehensive report to guide capacity
planning for Dubai healthcare until 2030.
This project included the implementation of the full suite of
health capacity planning tools, health facility guidelines,
licensing automation and service planning professional services
for ongoing strategic planning

26. Key Projects – Abu Dhabi DoH
Working closely with the Investment and Capacity
Management Division of Abu Dhabi Department of Health,
TAHPI is working to improve and develop the current scientific
methods for undertaking service planning by increased
functionality, responsiveness and automation of software.
Delivery of the project requirements was through a suite of
web-based software with the functions to conduct demand
projections for all service types and lines to 2035, capture
health service supply for existing and proposed services,
analysis of future supply and of supply gap, and presented in an
interactive mapping system.
An ongoing Capacity Master Plan is developed annually by
TAHPI to refine and update capacity planning recommendations
in lieu of changes to population, supply, demand and policy
initiatives.

27. Key Projects – NT Health, Australia
This project provided a cohesive and systematic approach to
clinical and infrastructure planning for Northern Territory Health
(NTH), which involved in-depth consultations with relevant
stakeholders of the two Health Services, six public hospitals and
multiple primary care centres across the territory. Responding to
this system-wide plan both health services undertook a
systematic process of clinical service planning to inform
infrastructure development across all hospitals and health
facilities.
This project used all modules of the HFBS system to translate
service planning analysis to facility planning briefing and costing.
A bespoke geospatial mapping solution was provided to allow the
client to visualize asset configuration and calculate travel time,
proximity, density and relationship with over 100 remote health
assets in the region.

28. Awards

29. 29
Planning for Future Healthcare
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