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Modelling Motorway Emissions
28 November 2012
Mark Chapman
Technical Director (Air Quality)
2Bureau Veritas Presentation
Introduction
► Roads → Carriageways → Lanes
► Emission Profiles
 Background, Default Assumptions, Lane by Lane Approach
► Model Verification and Adjustment Factors
► Impact Assessment
 Managed Motorways, Concentration Profiles, Influence on Results,
Considerations and Caveats
3Bureau Veritas Presentation
Roads  Carriageways  Lanes
► Roads
 Single Line Emission Source
W1 E1
4Bureau Veritas Presentation
Roads  Carriageways  Lanes
► 3 Lane Carriageway vs. 3 Lane by Lane
WHS W3 W1 CR E1 E3 EHSW2 E2
CRWHS EHSE2 E3E1W3 W2 W1
5Bureau Veritas Presentation
Emission Profiles: Background
► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 1
 Asymmetrical distribution of Flow across carriageway:
• 25% of Lane 1 (Inside Lane) total
• 29% of Lane 2 (Middle Lane) total
• 46% of Lane 3 (Outside Lane) total
 Asymmetrical distribution of HGVs across carriageway:
• 5% of Lane 1 (Inside Lane) total
• 42% of Lane 2 (Middle Lane) total
• 53% of Lane 3 (Outside Lane) total
6Bureau Veritas Presentation
Emission Profiles: Background
► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 1
 HGV influence on average speed of the lane
• HGVs restricted to 56 mph (90 kph)
• LGVs/Cars always obey the speed limit at 70 mph (112 kph)!
 Because disproportionate emissions from HGVs compared to LGVs/Cars
• Emissions distribution across the carriageway also asymmetrical
7Bureau Veritas Presentation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WHS W3 W2 W1 CR E1 E2 E3 EHS
Percentage
Lane
3 Lane Carriageway 3 Lane by Lane
Emission Profiles: Background
► 3 Lane Carriageway vs. 3 Lane by Lane
8Bureau Veritas Presentation
Emission Profiles: Background
► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 2
 3 Lanes
• Volume and composition of vehicles were unevenly distributed across all
lanes
 4 Lanes
• Volume and composition of vehicles were also unevenly distributed
across all lanes
• Vehicles tended to remain in the same lane when a 4th Lane was available
• Shift in vehicles from Lane 3 to Lane 4 when available
• Assumed to be because vehicles were getting off at the next junction
9Bureau Veritas Presentation
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WHS W3 W2 W1 CR E1 E2 E3 EHS
Percentage
Lane
3 Lane Carriageway 4 Lane Carriageway
Emission Profiles: Default Assumptions
► 3 Lane Carriageway  4 Lane Carriageway
10Bureau Veritas Presentation
Emission Profiles: Lane by Lane Approach
► 3 Lane by Lane  4 Lane by Lane
11Bureau Veritas Presentation
Emission Profiles: Lane by Lane Approach
► 3 Lane by Lane  4 Lane by Lane
12Bureau Veritas Presentation
Model Verification and Adjustment Factors
Annual Mean NO2 Carriageway
Model Setup
Lane by Lane
Model Setup
Monitored Total 55 (@ 10m)
Monitored Background 15
Monitored Road
Component (NO2)
40
Monitored Road
Component (NOx)
101.9
Modelled Road
Component (NOx)
65.5 67.5
Adjustment Factor 1.56 1.51 (3.2% reduction)
Adjusted Modelled Total 55
13Bureau Veritas Presentation
Impact Assessment: Managed Motorways
► Aim:
 Increase motorway capacity to manage increased demand for use
► CALR4
 Continuous All Lane Running
 4 Lanes [3 + Hard Shoulder] Open Continuously
► HSR
 Hard Shoulder Running
 Managed use of Hard Shoulder during peak demand periods
 Typically AM Peak, Inter-Peak and PM Peak; c.12 hrs of operation
14Bureau Veritas Presentation
37
42
47
52
57
62
67
72
77
82
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Concentration(ug/m3)
Distance from Kerb (m)
3 Lane Carriageway CALR4 Carriageway HSR Carriageway
Impact Assessment: Concentration Profiles
► Carriageway
15Bureau Veritas Presentation
37
42
47
52
57
62
67
72
77
82
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
Concentration(ug/m3)
Distance from Kerb (m)
3 Lane by Lane CALR4 Lane by Lane HSR Lane by Lane
Impact Assessment: Concentration Profiles
► Lane by Lane
16Bureau Veritas Presentation
Impact Assessment: Influence on Results
Carriageway Model
Setup
Lane by Lane Model
Setup
Predicted
Concentration
3 Lane (Do Minimum)
Lower Concentration
Higher Concentration
(More Exceedences)
Predicted
Concentration
4 Lane (Do Something)
Higher Concentration
(More Exceedences)
(Mitigation potentially
harder to achieve)
Lower Concentration
(Fewer Exceedences)
(Mitigation potentially
easier to achieve)
Predicted
Impact Magnitude
Higher Magnitude
(Scheme Causes More
Exceedences)
Lower Magnitude
(Scheme Causes Fewer
Exceedences)
17Bureau Veritas Presentation
Impact Assessment: Influence on Results
Number of
Properties
Exposed
Distance from
Motorway Kerb
(m)
Carriageway
Model Setup
Lane by Lane
Model Setup
10 10 +51.0 +44.1
5 20 +17.7 +15.8
1 30 +2.7 +2.5
Score elsewhere in network -62.4
Net Score
+9
Overall
Worsening
0
Overall
Neutral
18Bureau Veritas Presentation
Considerations and Caveats
► Influence of exhaust emission height
 Default vs. Lane by Lane variation - Adjustable within ADMS-Roads?
► Investigate influence coupled with temporal profiling:
 AM, IP, PM and OP traffic characteristics adjustment
► Dependent on local lane by lane traffic characteristics
 More survey data required
► Anyone seeking to Model Motorways for the Highways Agency should
seek guidance from HA Air Quality Advisor
19Bureau Veritas Presentation
Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update
► Highways Agency Business Objective Net Score
“The Highways Agency will not progress a major scheme which would
worsen the situation overall regarding compliance with the EU Limit
Value”
Highways Agency Business Plan 07-08
► Evaluation Criteria:
 Sum of the change in predicted concentration [impact] at relevant receptors,
where exceedence of the EU Limit Value is predicted in either Do Minimum
(Without Scheme) or Do Something (With Scheme) Scenario
20Bureau Veritas Presentation
Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update
► Review of the Highways
Agency's Approach to Evaluating
Significant Air Quality Effects
 Issued 07 September 2012
 Version: 1.1 (Final)
 Deadline for ‘comments’ closed on
5 October 2012
21Bureau Veritas Presentation
Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update
► DRAFT In Advance of Publication
of Interim Advice Note (IAN)
 Updated air quality advice
(supplementary guidance) on the
application of the test for evaluating
significant effects; for users of DMRB
Volume 11, Section 3, Part 1 (HA
207/07) ‘Air Quality’
• Includes supporting spreadsheet
• Future IAN to be used forthwith on
relevant projects in England, where
air quality assessments are
undertaken, and where such
projects have yet to be submitted
for statutory process, including the
Determination of the need for a
statutory Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA)
22Bureau Veritas Presentation
Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update
► Need for Updated Advice?
 A (technical) review of the HA’s approach to evaluating significant air
quality impacts for the purposes of Environmental Impact Assessment
(EIA)
• To reflect national planning policy changes (National Planning Policy
Framework) whist still meeting requirements of the EIA Directive
(2011/92/EU)
 In light of this review, the HA is developing a new approach to evaluating
significant air quality impacts
Modelling Motorway Emissions v2

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Modelling Motorway Emissions v2

  • 1. Modelling Motorway Emissions 28 November 2012 Mark Chapman Technical Director (Air Quality)
  • 2. 2Bureau Veritas Presentation Introduction ► Roads → Carriageways → Lanes ► Emission Profiles  Background, Default Assumptions, Lane by Lane Approach ► Model Verification and Adjustment Factors ► Impact Assessment  Managed Motorways, Concentration Profiles, Influence on Results, Considerations and Caveats
  • 3. 3Bureau Veritas Presentation Roads  Carriageways  Lanes ► Roads  Single Line Emission Source W1 E1
  • 4. 4Bureau Veritas Presentation Roads  Carriageways  Lanes ► 3 Lane Carriageway vs. 3 Lane by Lane WHS W3 W1 CR E1 E3 EHSW2 E2 CRWHS EHSE2 E3E1W3 W2 W1
  • 5. 5Bureau Veritas Presentation Emission Profiles: Background ► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 1  Asymmetrical distribution of Flow across carriageway: • 25% of Lane 1 (Inside Lane) total • 29% of Lane 2 (Middle Lane) total • 46% of Lane 3 (Outside Lane) total  Asymmetrical distribution of HGVs across carriageway: • 5% of Lane 1 (Inside Lane) total • 42% of Lane 2 (Middle Lane) total • 53% of Lane 3 (Outside Lane) total
  • 6. 6Bureau Veritas Presentation Emission Profiles: Background ► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 1  HGV influence on average speed of the lane • HGVs restricted to 56 mph (90 kph) • LGVs/Cars always obey the speed limit at 70 mph (112 kph)!  Because disproportionate emissions from HGVs compared to LGVs/Cars • Emissions distribution across the carriageway also asymmetrical
  • 7. 7Bureau Veritas Presentation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% WHS W3 W2 W1 CR E1 E2 E3 EHS Percentage Lane 3 Lane Carriageway 3 Lane by Lane Emission Profiles: Background ► 3 Lane Carriageway vs. 3 Lane by Lane
  • 8. 8Bureau Veritas Presentation Emission Profiles: Background ► Local CCTV Observation Explained: Part 2  3 Lanes • Volume and composition of vehicles were unevenly distributed across all lanes  4 Lanes • Volume and composition of vehicles were also unevenly distributed across all lanes • Vehicles tended to remain in the same lane when a 4th Lane was available • Shift in vehicles from Lane 3 to Lane 4 when available • Assumed to be because vehicles were getting off at the next junction
  • 9. 9Bureau Veritas Presentation 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% WHS W3 W2 W1 CR E1 E2 E3 EHS Percentage Lane 3 Lane Carriageway 4 Lane Carriageway Emission Profiles: Default Assumptions ► 3 Lane Carriageway  4 Lane Carriageway
  • 10. 10Bureau Veritas Presentation Emission Profiles: Lane by Lane Approach ► 3 Lane by Lane  4 Lane by Lane
  • 11. 11Bureau Veritas Presentation Emission Profiles: Lane by Lane Approach ► 3 Lane by Lane  4 Lane by Lane
  • 12. 12Bureau Veritas Presentation Model Verification and Adjustment Factors Annual Mean NO2 Carriageway Model Setup Lane by Lane Model Setup Monitored Total 55 (@ 10m) Monitored Background 15 Monitored Road Component (NO2) 40 Monitored Road Component (NOx) 101.9 Modelled Road Component (NOx) 65.5 67.5 Adjustment Factor 1.56 1.51 (3.2% reduction) Adjusted Modelled Total 55
  • 13. 13Bureau Veritas Presentation Impact Assessment: Managed Motorways ► Aim:  Increase motorway capacity to manage increased demand for use ► CALR4  Continuous All Lane Running  4 Lanes [3 + Hard Shoulder] Open Continuously ► HSR  Hard Shoulder Running  Managed use of Hard Shoulder during peak demand periods  Typically AM Peak, Inter-Peak and PM Peak; c.12 hrs of operation
  • 14. 14Bureau Veritas Presentation 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Concentration(ug/m3) Distance from Kerb (m) 3 Lane Carriageway CALR4 Carriageway HSR Carriageway Impact Assessment: Concentration Profiles ► Carriageway
  • 15. 15Bureau Veritas Presentation 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Concentration(ug/m3) Distance from Kerb (m) 3 Lane by Lane CALR4 Lane by Lane HSR Lane by Lane Impact Assessment: Concentration Profiles ► Lane by Lane
  • 16. 16Bureau Veritas Presentation Impact Assessment: Influence on Results Carriageway Model Setup Lane by Lane Model Setup Predicted Concentration 3 Lane (Do Minimum) Lower Concentration Higher Concentration (More Exceedences) Predicted Concentration 4 Lane (Do Something) Higher Concentration (More Exceedences) (Mitigation potentially harder to achieve) Lower Concentration (Fewer Exceedences) (Mitigation potentially easier to achieve) Predicted Impact Magnitude Higher Magnitude (Scheme Causes More Exceedences) Lower Magnitude (Scheme Causes Fewer Exceedences)
  • 17. 17Bureau Veritas Presentation Impact Assessment: Influence on Results Number of Properties Exposed Distance from Motorway Kerb (m) Carriageway Model Setup Lane by Lane Model Setup 10 10 +51.0 +44.1 5 20 +17.7 +15.8 1 30 +2.7 +2.5 Score elsewhere in network -62.4 Net Score +9 Overall Worsening 0 Overall Neutral
  • 18. 18Bureau Veritas Presentation Considerations and Caveats ► Influence of exhaust emission height  Default vs. Lane by Lane variation - Adjustable within ADMS-Roads? ► Investigate influence coupled with temporal profiling:  AM, IP, PM and OP traffic characteristics adjustment ► Dependent on local lane by lane traffic characteristics  More survey data required ► Anyone seeking to Model Motorways for the Highways Agency should seek guidance from HA Air Quality Advisor
  • 19. 19Bureau Veritas Presentation Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update ► Highways Agency Business Objective Net Score “The Highways Agency will not progress a major scheme which would worsen the situation overall regarding compliance with the EU Limit Value” Highways Agency Business Plan 07-08 ► Evaluation Criteria:  Sum of the change in predicted concentration [impact] at relevant receptors, where exceedence of the EU Limit Value is predicted in either Do Minimum (Without Scheme) or Do Something (With Scheme) Scenario
  • 20. 20Bureau Veritas Presentation Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update ► Review of the Highways Agency's Approach to Evaluating Significant Air Quality Effects  Issued 07 September 2012  Version: 1.1 (Final)  Deadline for ‘comments’ closed on 5 October 2012
  • 21. 21Bureau Veritas Presentation Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update ► DRAFT In Advance of Publication of Interim Advice Note (IAN)  Updated air quality advice (supplementary guidance) on the application of the test for evaluating significant effects; for users of DMRB Volume 11, Section 3, Part 1 (HA 207/07) ‘Air Quality’ • Includes supporting spreadsheet • Future IAN to be used forthwith on relevant projects in England, where air quality assessments are undertaken, and where such projects have yet to be submitted for statutory process, including the Determination of the need for a statutory Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
  • 22. 22Bureau Veritas Presentation Highways Agency: Significance Criteria Update ► Need for Updated Advice?  A (technical) review of the HA’s approach to evaluating significant air quality impacts for the purposes of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) • To reflect national planning policy changes (National Planning Policy Framework) whist still meeting requirements of the EIA Directive (2011/92/EU)  In light of this review, the HA is developing a new approach to evaluating significant air quality impacts