Today, I was lucky enough to participate in the CIGRE Canada panel on Network Resiliency. The presentations were thoughtful and led to interesting questions from the floor. Here is the presentation I delivered, let me know if you would to talk about how your organisation should grapple with Resiliency.
Cigre canada 2016 diamond sponsor panel on resilience
1. CIGRÉ Canada Panel Session - “What is Network Resiliency?”
Vancouver, BC - Wednesday, October 19th, 2016
Presented by Marc Brunet-Watson, P. Eng
Director – Power Networks - PSC North America
The Business Case for Resiliency
2. I won’t be talking technology
Understanding Resiliency
What is holding back investment?
Quantifying benefits of resiliency
3. Trying to define resiliency
Preparing for and adapting to changing conditions
– Resiliency time frames can vary from seconds to decades
– Planning horizons are becoming blurred
Withstanding and rapidly recovering from disruption
– Deliberate attack (PG&E transformers, Ukraine SCADA hack)
– Naturally occurring events (weather, earthquake)
– Regulation, technology, etc…
One measure of the resilience of any system is the speed
and return to equilibrium following a disturbance
– Time (before, initiation, duration)
– Severity
Resilience is a trajectory
4. Reliability versus Resiliency
They are not the same thing
– The difference increases with system complexity
Reliability is a measure of service
– Focuses on impact to grid
– Service standard is explicit and inflexible
Resiliency is related to risks & consequences
– Considers impacts beyond the grid
– Service standard is flexible and poorly defined
Direct recovery
Regulated Cap Ex
Destruction
& Mayhem
Some direct recovery
Regulated Op Ex
Cost recovery at risk
Societal impact and
regulated revenue
Managing risk is different than eliminating it
5. Will the two Rs converge?
Likelihood/
probability
Consequences
Events
impacting
RELIABILITY
(today)
Events
impacting
RESILIENCE
(today)
Events impacting
RELIABILITY and
RESILIENCE
(future)
Aging infrastructure
Higher asset utilisation
Storm severity and frequency
Physical and cyber attacks
6. Resiliency is multi-faceted
Transmission networks have inherent resiliency due to N-1-1, N-2, etc
Network operators have been managing risk forever
Resiliency planning requires a systems based approach
From Sandia National Laboratories Report SAND2014-18019, “Conceptual Framework for Developing
Resilience Metrics for the Electricity, Oil, and Gas Sectors in the United States”, September 2015
Operations
Planning
Prepare Withstand Adapt Recover REPEAT
7. Natural disaster
Severe weather
Geomagnetic storms
Cyber/physical attack
EMP
System topology
Geography
Asset condition
Security culture
Health and safety
Basic service interruption
Macro-economic
Reputational
Fiscal impact
ASSESS
DESCRIBE
QUANTIFY
You get the consequences you don’t pay for!
9. Resiliency spending to date
Operational preparedness is a mature component of resiliency
– Increasing prevalence of real-time tools
– Focus is on Adapt and Recover
Hardening is occurring – often in response to major events
– Québec and Ontario post 1998 ice-storm
• Higher standards, new equipment big spend
– Superstorm Sandy 2012
• Undergrounding and path diversity from Southern US right up to Ontario
Technology based resiliency spending has been held back – why?
– Mostly pilot and demonstration projects as technology trials
– No large scale integration as part of Business As Usual
10. Regulated cost recovery is made for reliability
Asset owners expect a fair return on capital in exchange for economic regulation
Regulators have required service guarantees under an agreed framework (load
growth forecast, reliability criteria)
– High probability, low impact disturbances
Postage stamp tariff
– Uniform service for all whether it is wanted or not
What about High Impact, Low Probability Events?
– Who benefits and do they care?
Little incentive for resiliency based technology spend
11. Quantifying the benefits of resiliency
Total Benefits = Avoided grid costs + Avoided societal costs + Societal benefits
Apply the resiliency toolkit: Operations, Hardening, Technology
Solutions must be customised to the specific threats and vulnerabilities that have
been identified
Determine the level of resiliency you want and can afford – Value of lost load
– Duration and frequency of outages
– Breakdown by customer segment
– Quantify societal costs – human toll, property destruction, etc
Benefits have to be valued by someone!
12. Positive externalities of a more resilient system
Improved Emergency Response
– Avoided death and injury
– Responding where/when needed
Minimised productivity loss
– Less upset to supply chains
Increased energy efficiency
Reduced client-side expenditure
– Less need for backup gensets, back-up feeders, etc
Attractive to investment
– Companies value uninterrupted supply
Cost
Benefits
to grid
Societal benefits
(externalities)
13. Look for partners
Sensitive loads may need better quality of service than reliability
standards provide
Regional development agencies may wish to attract industry that
can be supplied by weak grids if strong micro grids and controllable
DER are deployed
University campuses and hospitals really don’t like to be interrupted
Resiliency is conferred
14. And once you’ve got it…
Resiliency driven investments in micro grid and DER can be made
available for reliability based needs
– Easing peak congestion
– Deferring transmission investment
– Increasing asset utilisation
Could it eventually be tariff neutral?