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SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 
MEMORANDUM 
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES 
FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES 
RE: UTAH MEDICAID EXPANSION SURVEY SUMMARY 
________________________________________________________________________ 
This memorandum is a summary of a 500n live interview landline and cell phone 
survey of registered voters in Utah. The survey was fielded on September 8 and 9, 
and has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level. The focus of 
this research was to measure voter opinion of four different Medicaid expansion 
proposals being considered by Governor Gary Herbert and the Utah Legislature. 
The four proposals presented in the survey include the Traditional Medicaid 
Expansion Proposal, the Partial Expansion Proposal, the Healthy Utah Proposal, 
and a “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal. The full topline results of 
the survey are also included in this document. 
Survey Instrument Design 
The survey questions were designed to first measure voter awareness and interest in 
the Medicaid expansion issue and then inform respondents how the Utah Medicaid 
expansion debate came about. Respondents were then read information about each 
of the four Medicaid expansion proposals in stand-alone question format in random 
order, and then asked to choose which proposal they believed was the best and 
should be implemented. Except where otherwise cited, cost and enrollment figures 
for each proposal were obtained from materials produced for Utah legislators by 
the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst or the Office of Legislative Research and 
General Counsel. 
Summary of Findings 
The survey finds that Utah registered voters are reluctant to favor any of the four 
Medicaid expansion proposals currently being considered by Governor Herbert 
and the state legislature. Of the four Medicaid expansion proposals that were tested 
in the survey, no individual proposal received 50% support among respondents. 
After explaining the details of each proposal in a stand-alone question format, on 
average 30% of respondents were unsure if they favored or opposed the proposals. 
Of the four proposals, the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal had the 
highest percentage of voters favoring a proposal with 45% and the lowest 
percentage opposing a proposal at 26%.
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
2 
The Healthy Utah Proposal was favored by 32% of respondents, opposed by 40% 
of respondents, and 28% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal. 
The Traditional Medicaid Expansion and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals 
were the least favored proposals by voters, with only 21% and 19% favoring them 
respectively. A near majority of 49% and 48% of voters oppose the Traditional and 
Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals, respectively. 
After respondents were informed about the details of each proposal and then asked 
to choose which one they believed was the best proposal that should be 
implemented, a plurality of 31% chose the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” 
proposal. Seventeen percent chose the Healthy Utah Proposal, 15% chose the 
Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, and 10% chose the Partial Medicaid 
Expansion Proposal. One in five respondents, or 20%, were unsure or did not know 
which proposal was the best and should be implemented, and 7% did not like any 
of the proposals. 
Utah Voter Interest and Awareness of Medicaid Expansion Proposals 
Among all voters, 31% responded as being either extremely interested (11%), or 
very interested (20%) in the debate surrounding the expansion of Medicaid in Utah, 
and a plurality of 49% responded as being somewhat interested. Eighteen percent 
of registered voters responded as not being interested at all. Awareness of the 
Medicaid expansion debate is strong among all voters, with 76% of respondents 
having seen, read or heard at least a little information about the Medicaid 
expansion debate. Among all voters, 10% have seen, read or heard a lot of 
information, 31% some information, and 35% a little bit of information about the 
Medicaid expansion proposals. Only 24% of Utah voters have not seen any 
information at all about the Medicaid expansion proposals. 
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal 
The Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to 
respondents with the following information. 
“One proposal is referred to as the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal. This 
proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to individuals at 138 
percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It would allow more 
than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage, although the actual 
number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on 
unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid.i Some 
of the individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private 
health insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of 
working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have 
children.ii By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars, 
with the remaining cost of $640 million paid for with funding from the federal
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
3 
government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have 
to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut 
Medicaid health benefits.” 
“After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly 
favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided 
about this proposal?” 
Among all voters, 49% oppose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal, 21% 
favor the proposal, and 30% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the 
proposal. 
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup 
All 
Voters 
Men 
Wom 
All 
Rep 
Cons. 
Rep 
Mod 
Rep 
All 
Ind 
Cons. 
Ind 
Mod 
Ind 
All 
Dem 
Total Favor 21% 21% 22% 9% 5% 19% 29% 14% 40% 45% 
Total Oppose 49% 55% 45% 60% 66% 52% 45% 59% 38% 18% 
No Opinion 30% 24% 33% 31% 29% 29% 26% 27% 22% 37% 
Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup 
All 
Voters 
CD 
01 
CD 
02 
CD 
03 
CD 
04 
30K 
Less 
31K 
70K 
71K 
100K 
101K 
More 
Age 
65+ 
Total Favor 21% 19% 21% 28% 18% 25% 23% 24% 20% 20% 
Total Oppose 49% 52% 46% 47% 52% 50% 48% 55% 48% 54% 
No Opinion 30% 29% 33% 25% 30% 25% 29% 21% 32% 26% 
Voter Opinion of Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal 
The Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents 
with the following information. 
“One proposal is referred to as the Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal. This 
proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100 
percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000 
individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group 
are single, and 66 percent do not have children.iii By 2021, this plan is estimated to 
cost $25 million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more 
generous federal funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275 
million paid for with funding from the federal government. If the federal 
government turns down the more generous federal funding option, approximately 
$75 million in state tax dollars would be required and federal funding would go 
down to approximately $225 million.iv In either case, if federal funding were cut in 
the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax 
dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.”
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
4 
“After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly 
favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided 
about this proposal?” 
Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup 
All 
Voters 
Men 
Wom 
All 
Rep 
Cons. 
Rep 
Mod 
Rep 
All 
Ind 
Cons. 
Ind 
Mod 
Ind 
All 
Dem 
Total Favor 19% 19% 19% 15% 12% 21% 22% 6% 38% 31% 
Total Oppose 48% 52% 44% 51% 54% 46% 49% 57% 37% 31% 
No Opinion 33% 29% 37% 34% 34% 33% 29% 37% 25% 38% 
Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup 
All 
Voters 
CD 
01 
CD 
02 
CD 
03 
CD 
04 
30K 
Less 
31K 
70K 
71K 
100K 
101K 
More 
Age 
65+ 
Total Favor 19% 22% 17% 22% 16% 29% 26% 15% 19% 16% 
Total Oppose 48% 45% 50% 48% 48% 42% 49% 52% 50% 50% 
No Opinion 33% 33% 33% 30% 36% 29% 25% 33% 31% 34% 
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal 
The Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents with 
the following information. 
“One proposal is referred to as The Healthy Utah proposal. This proposal would 
expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the 
purchase of private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for 
Medicaid and make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required 
by Obamacare. It would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than 
160,000 individuals whose insurance would cover similar health services as 
traditional Medicaid. The actual number of qualifying individuals may be 
significantly higher based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have 
expanded Medicaid.v” 
“Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It 
is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, 
and 61 percent of them are without children.vi By 2021, this plan is estimated to 
cost $40 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360 
million paid for with funding from the federal government.vii If federal funding were 
cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state 
tax dollars to continue insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits.” 
“After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about 
this proposal?”
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
5 
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
Men 
Wom 
All 
Rep 
Cons. 
Rep 
Mod 
Rep 
All 
Ind 
Cons. 
Ind 
Mod 
Ind 
All 
Dem 
Total Favor 32% 28% 36% 28% 24% 37% 36% 30% 43% 39% 
Total Oppose 40% 46% 34% 45% 49% 38% 36% 42% 31% 30% 
No Opinion 28% 26% 30% 27% 27% 25% 28% 28% 26% 31% 
Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
CD 
01 
CD 
02 
CD 
03 
CD 
04 
30K 
Less 
31K 
70K 
71K 
100K 
101K 
More 
Age 
65+ 
Total Favor 32% 31% 30% 37% 31% 43% 38% 21% 34% 24% 
Total Oppose 40% 40% 47% 34% 38% 42% 35% 51% 38% 45% 
No Opinion 28% 29% 23% 29% 31% 15% 28% 29% 28% 31% 
Voter Opinion of the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal 
The “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal question was presented to 
respondents with the following information. 
“One proposal is to not expand Medicaid right now. This proposal would 
temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to 
create new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services 
to the most vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such 
as the medically frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for 
Medicaid, but is significantly lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or 
programs would be funded by state tax dollars and may involve some federal 
funding. Until the new policies or programs are determined, it is unknown how 
many individuals would qualify for these benefits or services or how much they 
would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for greater Medicaid flexibility 
in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid flexibility provisions, 
such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to significantly 
reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah residents.” 
“After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about 
this proposal?” 
Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
Men 
Wom 
All 
Rep 
Cons. 
Rep 
Mod 
Rep 
All 
Ind 
Cons. 
Ind 
Mod 
Ind 
All 
Dem 
Total Favor 45% 46% 43% 50% 51% 47% 42% 47% 46% 24% 
Total Oppose 26% 32% 21% 19% 17% 24% 30% 22% 29% 42% 
No Opinion 29% 22% 36% 31% 32% 29% 28% 31% 25% 34%
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
6 
Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
CD 
01 
CD 
02 
CD 
03 
CD 
04 
30K 
Less 
31K 
70K 
71K 
100K 
101K 
More 
Age 
65+ 
Total Favor 45% 40% 45% 44% 49% 38% 49% 46% 46% 36% 
Total Oppose 26% 30% 28% 31% 13% 29% 23% 32% 25% 27% 
No Opinion 29% 30% 27% 25% 38% 33% 28% 22% 29% 37% 
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented 
After hearing information about the four different proposals, respondents were 
asked which one they thought was the best and should be implemented. 
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
Men 
Wom 
All 
Rep 
Cons. 
Rep 
Mod 
Rep 
All 
Ind 
Cons. 
Ind 
Mod 
Ind 
All 
Dem 
Don’t Expand 31% 34% 29% 42% 47% 30% 25% 31% 22% 11% 
Unsure/DK 20% 13% 25% 19% 20% 18% 22% 26% 19% 17% 
Healthy Utah 17% 14% 19% 17% 13% 26% 15% 16% 13% 19% 
Trad. Med. 15% 17% 14% 7% 6% 9% 19% 7% 29% 41% 
Partial Med. 10% 11% 9% 10% 8% 13% 10% 8% 13% 8% 
Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 4% 5% 6% 4% 9% 12% 4% 4% 
Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup* 
All 
Voters 
CD 
01 
CD 
02 
CD 
03 
CD 
04 
30K 
Less 
31K 
70K 
71K 
100K 
101K 
More 
Age 
65+ 
Don’t Expand 31% 30% 32% 30% 33% 25% 30% 36% 34% 28% 
Unsure/DK 20% 13% 22% 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 13% 26% 
Healthy Utah 17% 15% 14% 21% 17% 17% 18% 17% 18% 10% 
Trad. Med. 15% 16% 21% 13% 12% 11% 16% 19% 19% 13% 
Partial Med. 10% 15% 5% 11% 6% 15% 9% 6% 12% 9% 
Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% 6% 4% 14% 
Conclusion 
The focus of this research project was to inform Utah registered voters about the 
facts of four different Medicaid expansion proposals and measure their opinion of 
each proposal. Great care was taken when researching the facts presented about 
each proposal, including estimated costs and individuals covered by each 
proposal, so respondents could provide their opinions based on that information. 
What we find from the survey data is that Utah voters do not favor any one 
proposal overwhelmingly. Combined, the Healthy Utah, Traditional and Partial 
Medicaid expansion plans are supported by 42% of Utah voters. The “Don’t 
Expand Now” and voters that are unsure about any proposal combined is 51% of 
all registered voters. If we add the 7% of voters that don’t like any of the proposals 
to the “Don’t Expand Now”/unsure group of voters, 58% of registered voters prefer 
not to implement any of the other three plans.
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
7 
Survey Commissioned By 
This survey was commissioned by Sutherland Institute. 
Survey Methodology 
This survey was conducted by live dialing to a landline and cell phone sample. The 
sample was randomly drawn from a Utah voter file. The results were weighted 
based upon voting registration numbers, which are included in this document. Any 
questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David 
Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861- 
8585. 
Utah Voter Registration Demographics 
The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file obtained 
from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office. 
Gender 
Female – 54% 
Male – 46% 
Party 
Republican, 44% 
Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44% 
Democrat, 10% 
Age Range 
18 to 29, 18% 
30 to 44, 31% 
45 to 54, 16% 
55 to 64, 16% 
65+, 19% 
Region 
CD-01, 26% 
CD-02, 25% 
CD-03, 26% 
CD-04, 23% 
Hispanic Origin Quotas 
The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual 
voter. To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered 
voters Magellan Strategies used data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends 
Project. Pew Research estimated that 123,000 Hispanic individuals, or 7% of
Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary 
September 15th, 2014 
Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 
8 
registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general election. To review their 
methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb. 
About Magellan Strategies 
Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, 
qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to political candidates, 
campaigns and policy organizations across the country. 
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 
i!For!examples,!see!Gosia!Wozniacka,!“Medicaid!enrollees!strain!oregon,”!Associated*Press,! 
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/apnewsbreakAmedicaidAenrolleesAstrainAoregon;!and!Karen!Bouffard,! 
“Enrollment!in!Michigan!Medicaid!expansion!exceeds!322K,”!The*Detroit*News,! 
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140711/BIZ/307110028;!and!Jennifer!Haberkorn,! 
“Enrollment!in!Medicaid,!children’s!health!program!grows!by!3!million,”!Politico,! 
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/medicaidAchipAenrollmentAgrowthA105383.html.! 
! 
ii!Norman!J.!Waitzman!et.!al,!“Who!would!be!newly!eligible!for!coverage!under!the!Healthy!Utah!Plan,! 
or!Full!Medicaid!Expansion?,”!presentation!to!the!Utah!Legislature’s!Health!Reform!Task!Force,! 
http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003826.pdf.! 
! 
iii!Ibid.* 
! 
iv!Estimate!based!on!moving!from!a!90/10!federal!match!rate!to!a!70/30!federal!match!rate.! 
! 
v!See!footnote!1.! 
! 
vi!See!footnote!2.! 
! 
vii!For!state!tax!dollar!figure,!see!“Healthy!Utah!Plan!Overview,”!Utah!Department!of!Health,! 
http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003836.pdf.!Federal!funding!estimate!was!calculated!based! 
on!a!90/10!federal!match!rate.!
!!!!! 
Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 500n live 
landline and cell phone survey of registered voters in the state of Utah. The 
interviews were conducted September 8th and 9th, 2014. This survey has a 
margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The 
survey results were slightly weighted based upon the voter registration 
demographics of Utah. 
T1. Are you male or female? 
Female .................................................................... 54% 
Male ....................................................................... 46% 
T2. Are you registered to vote in the state of Utah as a Republican, a Democrat, an 
independent voter, with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? 
Republican .............................................................. 44% 
Democrat ................................................................ 10% 
Independent ............................................................ 42% 
Some other party ....................................................... 4% 
Thinking now about the issue of Medicaid expansion in Utah… 
T3. How interested would you say you are in the debate surrounding expansion of 
Medicaid in Utah? Would you say that you are extremely interested, very interested, 
somewhat interested or not interested at all? 
Extremely interested ................................................ 11% 
Very interested ........................................................ 20% 
Somewhat interested ............................................... 49% 
Not interested at all ................................................. 18% 
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 2%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
2 
T4. How much information have you seen, read or heard about the expansion of 
Medicaid in Utah? Would you say have seen, read or heard a lot of information, some 
information, a little bit of information or no information at all? 
A lot of information ................................................. 10% 
Some information .................................................... 31% 
A little bit of information ......................................... 35% 
No information at all ............................................... 24% 
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 0% 
As you may know, a provision of the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,” 
required states to expand Medicaid to anyone making less than 138 percent of the federal 
poverty level, which in 2014 is $23,850 dollars for a family of four. But in a 2010 ruling, 
the U.S. Supreme Court said that the Medicaid expansion provision of “Obamacare” 
could not be forced on states, and must be an “opt-in” program. 
Because Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion provision is optional for states, Governor 
Herbert and the state legislature are currently evaluating several different Medicaid 
expansion proposals, including: 
A “Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal”, 
An alternative Medicaid expansion proposal called the “Healthy Utah Proposal”, 
A “Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal”, 
And finally a proposal to not expand Medicaid at all for now. 
I am now going to read to you some information about each proposal. After hearing the 
information about each plan I would like you to tell me if you strongly favor, somewhat 
favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that plan. If you are undecided or unsure 
there is an option for that as well. Let’s get started. 
T5. One proposal is referred to as the TRADITIONAL MEDICAID EXPANSION 
PROPOSAL. This proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to 
individuals at 138 percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It 
would allow more than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage, 
although the actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on 
unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid. Some of the 
individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private health 
insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age 
adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is 
estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of $640 million 
paid for with funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the 
future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to 
continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
3 
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this 
proposal? 
Total Favor .............................................................. 21% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 49% 
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 30% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
Strongly favor ............................................................ 7% 
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 14% 
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 25% 
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 24% 
T6. One proposal is referred to as the PARTIAL MEDICAID EXPANSION proposal. This 
proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100 
percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000 
individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group are 
single, and 66 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $25 
million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more generous federal 
funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275 million paid for with 
funding from the federal government. If the federal government turns down the more 
generous federal funding option, approximately $75 million in state tax dollars would be 
required and federal funding would go down to approximately $225 million. In either 
case, if federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide 
whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health 
benefits. 
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this 
proposal? 
Total Favor .............................................................. 19% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 48% 
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 33% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
Strongly favor ............................................................ 2% 
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 17% 
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 23% 
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 25%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
4 
T7. One proposal is referred to as THE HEALTHY UTAH proposal. This proposal would 
expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the purchase of 
private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid and 
make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required by Obamacare. It 
would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than 160,000 individuals whose 
insurance would cover similar health services as traditional Medicaid. The actual number 
of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher based on unexpectedly high 
enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid. 
Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It is 
estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61 
percent of them are without children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $40 million 
in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360 million paid for with 
funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah 
lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue 
insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits. 
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this 
proposal? 
Total Favor .............................................................. 32% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 40% 
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 28% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
Strongly favor ............................................................ 5% 
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 27% 
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 18% 
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 22% 
T8. One proposal is to NOT EXPAND MEDICAID RIGHT NOW. This proposal would 
temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to create 
new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services to the most 
vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such as the medically 
frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for Medicaid, but is significantly 
lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or programs would be funded by state 
tax dollars and may involve some federal funding. Until the new policies or programs are 
determined, it is unknown how many individuals would qualify for these benefits or 
services or how much they would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for 
greater Medicaid flexibility in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid 
flexibility provisions, such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
5 
significantly reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah 
residents. 
After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, 
somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this 
proposal? 
Total Favor .............................................................. 45% 
Total Oppose .......................................................... 26% 
Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 29% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
Strongly favor .......................................................... 13% 
Somewhat favor ..................................................... 32% 
Strongly oppose ...................................................... 16% 
Somewhat oppose ................................................... 10% 
T9. Now that you have heard some information about the different proposals and 
options, which one, if any, do you think is the best proposal or option that should be 
implemented? 
Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now proposal ........ 31% 
Healthy Utah proposal ........................................... 17% 
Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal ................ 15% 
Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal ....................... 10% 
Don’t like any of the proposals ................................. 7% 
Unsure or don’t know ............................................. 20% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
T10. Generally speaking, are you more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for 
public office that supports expanding Medicaid in Utah? 
More likely .............................................................. 34% 
Less likely ............................................................... 42% 
Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 24% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
6 
T11. Among the following options, which best describes how you pay for your most of 
your own healthcare expenses? 
Employer provided healthcare plan ......................... 58% 
Pay own healthcare not selected from exchange ..... 15% 
Medicare, the federal program for seniors ................. 9% 
Pay own healthcare selected from exchange ............. 5% 
Uninsured and no healthcare plan ........................... 4% 
Medicaid, the state program for the poor ................... 1% 
Some other option ..................................................... 7% 
Refused .................................................................... 1% 
T12. On most political issues, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or 
liberal? 
Conservative ........................................................... 49% 
Moderate ................................................................ 38% 
Liberal ..................................................................... 10% 
Unsure or refused ..................................................... 3% 
And now I have a few questions for statistical purposes only… 
T13. Is there anyone currently living in your household that is age 18 or younger? 
Yes .......................................................................... 44% 
No .......................................................................... 56% 
Don’t know or refused ............................................. 0% 
T14. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or 
unmarried and living with a partner? 
Married ................................................................... 77% 
Single and have never been married ....................... 15% 
Widowed .................................................................. 3% 
Divorced ................................................................... 3% 
Unmarried and living with a partner ......................... 1% 
Separated .................................................................. 1% 
No opinion ............................................................... 0%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
7 
T15. What is the highest level of education that you have completed? 
High school graduate or less ................................... 10% 
Associate or technical degree .................................. 13% 
Completed some college ......................................... 27% 
Completed Bachelor’s 4-year college degree ........... 30% 
Completed some graduate school ............................. 5% 
Completed graduate degree .................................... 15% 
Unsure or refused ...................................................... 0% 
T16. Which of the following age groups applies to you? Are you between the ages of 18 
and 29, 30 and 44, 45 and 54, 55 and 64, or are you 65 or older? 
18-29 ...................................................................... 18% 
30-44 ...................................................................... 31% 
45-54 ...................................................................... 16% 
55-64 ...................................................................... 16% 
65+ ......................................................................... 19% 
Refused ..................................................................... 0% 
T17. For statistical purposes only is your ethnicity Hispanic or non-Hispanic? 
Hispanic ................................................................... 7% 
Non-Hispanic ......................................................... 92% 
Don’t know or refused .............................................. 1% 
T18. For statistical purposes only what is your race? Are you white, black or African 
American, Asian, Pacific Islander or do you belong to some other racial group? 
White ...................................................................... 94% 
Black or African American ........................................ 0% 
Asian ......................................................................... 0% 
Pacific Islander .......................................................... 0% 
Some other group ...................................................... 5% 
Refused ..................................................................... 1%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
8 
T19. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? 
Employed full time .................................................. 43% 
Employed part time ................................................. 16% 
Unemployed or temporarily out of work ................... 4% 
Retired .................................................................... 18% 
Homemaker ............................................................ 13% 
Student ...................................................................... 5% 
Unsure or refused ...................................................... 1% 
T20. Again for statistical purposes only, what was the total income of everyone in your 
household last year before taxes? 
$20,000 or less ......................................................... 7% 
$21,000 to $30,000 .................................................. 6% 
$31,000 to $50,000 ................................................ 13% 
$51,000 to $70,000 ................................................ 17% 
$71,000 to $100,000 .............................................. 20% 
$101,000 to $125,000 ............................................ 12% 
$126,000 or more ................................................... 13% 
Unsure or refused .................................................... 12% 
Survey Methodology 
This live interview telephone survey was conducted using both landline and cell phone 
sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a statewide Utah 
voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon the voter registration 
demographics of Utah. The interviews were conducted on September 8th and 9th, 2014. 
Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a 
margin of error of 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding 
the survey methodology should be directed to David Flaherty, at 303-861-8585 or 
dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. 
Utah Voter Registration Demographics 
The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file from the Utah Lt. 
Governor’s office. 
Gender 
Female – 54% 
Male – 46%
Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results 
Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n 
Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 
9 
Party 
Republican, 44% 
Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44% 
Democrat, 10% 
Age Range 
18 to 29, 18% 
30 to 44, 31% 
45 to 54, 16% 
55 to 64, 16% 
65+, 19% 
Region 
CD-01, 26% 
CD-02, 25% 
CD-03, 26% 
CD-04, 23% 
Hispanic Origin Quotas 
The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual voter. 
To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered voters we used 
data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project. Their data estimated that 123,000 
Hispanic individuals, or 7% of registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general 
election. To review their methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb.

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Sutherland Institute Utah Medicare Expansion Survey Summary 091514

  • 1. ! SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: DAVID FLAHERTY, MAGELLAN STRATEGIES RE: UTAH MEDICAID EXPANSION SURVEY SUMMARY ________________________________________________________________________ This memorandum is a summary of a 500n live interview landline and cell phone survey of registered voters in Utah. The survey was fielded on September 8 and 9, and has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence level. The focus of this research was to measure voter opinion of four different Medicaid expansion proposals being considered by Governor Gary Herbert and the Utah Legislature. The four proposals presented in the survey include the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, the Partial Expansion Proposal, the Healthy Utah Proposal, and a “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal. The full topline results of the survey are also included in this document. Survey Instrument Design The survey questions were designed to first measure voter awareness and interest in the Medicaid expansion issue and then inform respondents how the Utah Medicaid expansion debate came about. Respondents were then read information about each of the four Medicaid expansion proposals in stand-alone question format in random order, and then asked to choose which proposal they believed was the best and should be implemented. Except where otherwise cited, cost and enrollment figures for each proposal were obtained from materials produced for Utah legislators by the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst or the Office of Legislative Research and General Counsel. Summary of Findings The survey finds that Utah registered voters are reluctant to favor any of the four Medicaid expansion proposals currently being considered by Governor Herbert and the state legislature. Of the four Medicaid expansion proposals that were tested in the survey, no individual proposal received 50% support among respondents. After explaining the details of each proposal in a stand-alone question format, on average 30% of respondents were unsure if they favored or opposed the proposals. Of the four proposals, the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal had the highest percentage of voters favoring a proposal with 45% and the lowest percentage opposing a proposal at 26%.
  • 2. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 2 The Healthy Utah Proposal was favored by 32% of respondents, opposed by 40% of respondents, and 28% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal. The Traditional Medicaid Expansion and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals were the least favored proposals by voters, with only 21% and 19% favoring them respectively. A near majority of 49% and 48% of voters oppose the Traditional and Partial Medicaid Expansion proposals, respectively. After respondents were informed about the details of each proposal and then asked to choose which one they believed was the best proposal that should be implemented, a plurality of 31% chose the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal. Seventeen percent chose the Healthy Utah Proposal, 15% chose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal, and 10% chose the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal. One in five respondents, or 20%, were unsure or did not know which proposal was the best and should be implemented, and 7% did not like any of the proposals. Utah Voter Interest and Awareness of Medicaid Expansion Proposals Among all voters, 31% responded as being either extremely interested (11%), or very interested (20%) in the debate surrounding the expansion of Medicaid in Utah, and a plurality of 49% responded as being somewhat interested. Eighteen percent of registered voters responded as not being interested at all. Awareness of the Medicaid expansion debate is strong among all voters, with 76% of respondents having seen, read or heard at least a little information about the Medicaid expansion debate. Among all voters, 10% have seen, read or heard a lot of information, 31% some information, and 35% a little bit of information about the Medicaid expansion proposals. Only 24% of Utah voters have not seen any information at all about the Medicaid expansion proposals. Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal The Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents with the following information. “One proposal is referred to as the Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal. This proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to individuals at 138 percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It would allow more than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage, although the actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid.i Some of the individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private health insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have children.ii By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of $640 million paid for with funding from the federal
  • 3. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 3 government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.” “After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal?” Among all voters, 49% oppose the Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal, 21% favor the proposal, and 30% were unsure or did not have an opinion of the proposal. Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup All Voters Men Wom All Rep Cons. Rep Mod Rep All Ind Cons. Ind Mod Ind All Dem Total Favor 21% 21% 22% 9% 5% 19% 29% 14% 40% 45% Total Oppose 49% 55% 45% 60% 66% 52% 45% 59% 38% 18% No Opinion 30% 24% 33% 31% 29% 29% 26% 27% 22% 37% Voter Opinion of Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup All Voters CD 01 CD 02 CD 03 CD 04 30K Less 31K 70K 71K 100K 101K More Age 65+ Total Favor 21% 19% 21% 28% 18% 25% 23% 24% 20% 20% Total Oppose 49% 52% 46% 47% 52% 50% 48% 55% 48% 54% No Opinion 30% 29% 33% 25% 30% 25% 29% 21% 32% 26% Voter Opinion of Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal The Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents with the following information. “One proposal is referred to as the Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal. This proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100 percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000 individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group are single, and 66 percent do not have children.iii By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $25 million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more generous federal funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275 million paid for with funding from the federal government. If the federal government turns down the more generous federal funding option, approximately $75 million in state tax dollars would be required and federal funding would go down to approximately $225 million.iv In either case, if federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.”
  • 4. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 4 “After hearing the information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal?” Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup All Voters Men Wom All Rep Cons. Rep Mod Rep All Ind Cons. Ind Mod Ind All Dem Total Favor 19% 19% 19% 15% 12% 21% 22% 6% 38% 31% Total Oppose 48% 52% 44% 51% 54% 46% 49% 57% 37% 31% No Opinion 33% 29% 37% 34% 34% 33% 29% 37% 25% 38% Voter Opinion of the Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal by Voter Subgroup All Voters CD 01 CD 02 CD 03 CD 04 30K Less 31K 70K 71K 100K 101K More Age 65+ Total Favor 19% 22% 17% 22% 16% 29% 26% 15% 19% 16% Total Oppose 48% 45% 50% 48% 48% 42% 49% 52% 50% 50% No Opinion 33% 33% 33% 30% 36% 29% 25% 33% 31% 34% Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal The Healthy Utah Expansion Proposal question was presented to respondents with the following information. “One proposal is referred to as The Healthy Utah proposal. This proposal would expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the purchase of private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid and make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required by Obamacare. It would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than 160,000 individuals whose insurance would cover similar health services as traditional Medicaid. The actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid.v” “Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent of them are without children.vi By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $40 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360 million paid for with funding from the federal government.vii If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits.” “After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal?”
  • 5. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 5 Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup* All Voters Men Wom All Rep Cons. Rep Mod Rep All Ind Cons. Ind Mod Ind All Dem Total Favor 32% 28% 36% 28% 24% 37% 36% 30% 43% 39% Total Oppose 40% 46% 34% 45% 49% 38% 36% 42% 31% 30% No Opinion 28% 26% 30% 27% 27% 25% 28% 28% 26% 31% Voter Opinion of the Healthy Utah Proposal by Voter Subgroup* All Voters CD 01 CD 02 CD 03 CD 04 30K Less 31K 70K 71K 100K 101K More Age 65+ Total Favor 32% 31% 30% 37% 31% 43% 38% 21% 34% 24% Total Oppose 40% 40% 47% 34% 38% 42% 35% 51% 38% 45% No Opinion 28% 29% 23% 29% 31% 15% 28% 29% 28% 31% Voter Opinion of the “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” Proposal The “Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now” proposal question was presented to respondents with the following information. “One proposal is to not expand Medicaid right now. This proposal would temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to create new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services to the most vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such as the medically frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for Medicaid, but is significantly lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or programs would be funded by state tax dollars and may involve some federal funding. Until the new policies or programs are determined, it is unknown how many individuals would qualify for these benefits or services or how much they would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for greater Medicaid flexibility in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid flexibility provisions, such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to significantly reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah residents.” “After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal?” Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup* All Voters Men Wom All Rep Cons. Rep Mod Rep All Ind Cons. Ind Mod Ind All Dem Total Favor 45% 46% 43% 50% 51% 47% 42% 47% 46% 24% Total Oppose 26% 32% 21% 19% 17% 24% 30% 22% 29% 42% No Opinion 29% 22% 36% 31% 32% 29% 28% 31% 25% 34%
  • 6. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 6 Voter Opinion of the Do Not Expand Medicaid Now Proposal by Voter Subgroup* All Voters CD 01 CD 02 CD 03 CD 04 30K Less 31K 70K 71K 100K 101K More Age 65+ Total Favor 45% 40% 45% 44% 49% 38% 49% 46% 46% 36% Total Oppose 26% 30% 28% 31% 13% 29% 23% 32% 25% 27% No Opinion 29% 30% 27% 25% 38% 33% 28% 22% 29% 37% Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented After hearing information about the four different proposals, respondents were asked which one they thought was the best and should be implemented. Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup* All Voters Men Wom All Rep Cons. Rep Mod Rep All Ind Cons. Ind Mod Ind All Dem Don’t Expand 31% 34% 29% 42% 47% 30% 25% 31% 22% 11% Unsure/DK 20% 13% 25% 19% 20% 18% 22% 26% 19% 17% Healthy Utah 17% 14% 19% 17% 13% 26% 15% 16% 13% 19% Trad. Med. 15% 17% 14% 7% 6% 9% 19% 7% 29% 41% Partial Med. 10% 11% 9% 10% 8% 13% 10% 8% 13% 8% Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 4% 5% 6% 4% 9% 12% 4% 4% Voter Opinion of Best Proposal That Should Be Implemented by Voter Subgroup* All Voters CD 01 CD 02 CD 03 CD 04 30K Less 31K 70K 71K 100K 101K More Age 65+ Don’t Expand 31% 30% 32% 30% 33% 25% 30% 36% 34% 28% Unsure/DK 20% 13% 22% 21% 25% 22% 22% 16% 13% 26% Healthy Utah 17% 15% 14% 21% 17% 17% 18% 17% 18% 10% Trad. Med. 15% 16% 21% 13% 12% 11% 16% 19% 19% 13% Partial Med. 10% 15% 5% 11% 6% 15% 9% 6% 12% 9% Don’t Like Any 7% 11% 6% 4% 7% 10% 5% 6% 4% 14% Conclusion The focus of this research project was to inform Utah registered voters about the facts of four different Medicaid expansion proposals and measure their opinion of each proposal. Great care was taken when researching the facts presented about each proposal, including estimated costs and individuals covered by each proposal, so respondents could provide their opinions based on that information. What we find from the survey data is that Utah voters do not favor any one proposal overwhelmingly. Combined, the Healthy Utah, Traditional and Partial Medicaid expansion plans are supported by 42% of Utah voters. The “Don’t Expand Now” and voters that are unsure about any proposal combined is 51% of all registered voters. If we add the 7% of voters that don’t like any of the proposals to the “Don’t Expand Now”/unsure group of voters, 58% of registered voters prefer not to implement any of the other three plans.
  • 7. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 7 Survey Commissioned By This survey was commissioned by Sutherland Institute. Survey Methodology This survey was conducted by live dialing to a landline and cell phone sample. The sample was randomly drawn from a Utah voter file. The results were weighted based upon voting registration numbers, which are included in this document. Any questions regarding the methodology of this survey should be directed to David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com or 303-861- 8585. Utah Voter Registration Demographics The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file obtained from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office. Gender Female – 54% Male – 46% Party Republican, 44% Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44% Democrat, 10% Age Range 18 to 29, 18% 30 to 44, 31% 45 to 54, 16% 55 to 64, 16% 65+, 19% Region CD-01, 26% CD-02, 25% CD-03, 26% CD-04, 23% Hispanic Origin Quotas The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual voter. To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered voters Magellan Strategies used data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project. Pew Research estimated that 123,000 Hispanic individuals, or 7% of
  • 8. Sutherland Institute-Magellan Strategies Utah Medicaid Expansion Proposal Survey Summary September 15th, 2014 Magellan Strategies |1685 Boxelder Street, Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 MagellanStrategies.com | 303-861-8585 8 registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general election. To review their methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb. About Magellan Strategies Magellan Strategies is a full-service survey research firm offering quantitative, qualitative, and predictive data modeling services to political candidates, campaigns and policy organizations across the country. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i!For!examples,!see!Gosia!Wozniacka,!“Medicaid!enrollees!strain!oregon,”!Associated*Press,! http://bigstory.ap.org/article/apnewsbreakAmedicaidAenrolleesAstrainAoregon;!and!Karen!Bouffard,! “Enrollment!in!Michigan!Medicaid!expansion!exceeds!322K,”!The*Detroit*News,! http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140711/BIZ/307110028;!and!Jennifer!Haberkorn,! “Enrollment!in!Medicaid,!children’s!health!program!grows!by!3!million,”!Politico,! http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/medicaidAchipAenrollmentAgrowthA105383.html.! ! ii!Norman!J.!Waitzman!et.!al,!“Who!would!be!newly!eligible!for!coverage!under!the!Healthy!Utah!Plan,! or!Full!Medicaid!Expansion?,”!presentation!to!the!Utah!Legislature’s!Health!Reform!Task!Force,! http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003826.pdf.! ! iii!Ibid.* ! iv!Estimate!based!on!moving!from!a!90/10!federal!match!rate!to!a!70/30!federal!match!rate.! ! v!See!footnote!1.! ! vi!See!footnote!2.! ! vii!For!state!tax!dollar!figure,!see!“Healthy!Utah!Plan!Overview,”!Utah!Department!of!Health,! http://le.utah.gov/interim/2014/pdf/00003836.pdf.!Federal!funding!estimate!was!calculated!based! on!a!90/10!federal!match!rate.!
  • 9. !!!!! Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the topline results for a 500n live landline and cell phone survey of registered voters in the state of Utah. The interviews were conducted September 8th and 9th, 2014. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey results were slightly weighted based upon the voter registration demographics of Utah. T1. Are you male or female? Female .................................................................... 54% Male ....................................................................... 46% T2. Are you registered to vote in the state of Utah as a Republican, a Democrat, an independent voter, with some other party, or are you not registered to vote? Republican .............................................................. 44% Democrat ................................................................ 10% Independent ............................................................ 42% Some other party ....................................................... 4% Thinking now about the issue of Medicaid expansion in Utah… T3. How interested would you say you are in the debate surrounding expansion of Medicaid in Utah? Would you say that you are extremely interested, very interested, somewhat interested or not interested at all? Extremely interested ................................................ 11% Very interested ........................................................ 20% Somewhat interested ............................................... 49% Not interested at all ................................................. 18% Don’t know or refused .............................................. 2%
  • 10. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 2 T4. How much information have you seen, read or heard about the expansion of Medicaid in Utah? Would you say have seen, read or heard a lot of information, some information, a little bit of information or no information at all? A lot of information ................................................. 10% Some information .................................................... 31% A little bit of information ......................................... 35% No information at all ............................................... 24% Don’t know or refused .............................................. 0% As you may know, a provision of the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare,” required states to expand Medicaid to anyone making less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, which in 2014 is $23,850 dollars for a family of four. But in a 2010 ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court said that the Medicaid expansion provision of “Obamacare” could not be forced on states, and must be an “opt-in” program. Because Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion provision is optional for states, Governor Herbert and the state legislature are currently evaluating several different Medicaid expansion proposals, including: A “Traditional Medicaid Expansion Proposal”, An alternative Medicaid expansion proposal called the “Healthy Utah Proposal”, A “Partial Medicaid Expansion Proposal”, And finally a proposal to not expand Medicaid at all for now. I am now going to read to you some information about each proposal. After hearing the information about each plan I would like you to tell me if you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that plan. If you are undecided or unsure there is an option for that as well. Let’s get started. T5. One proposal is referred to as the TRADITIONAL MEDICAID EXPANSION PROPOSAL. This proposal would expand Utah’s traditional Medicaid program to individuals at 138 percent of the federal poverty level as required by Obamacare. It would allow more than 160,000 individuals in Utah to obtain Medicaid coverage, although the actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher, based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid. Some of the individuals that would be covered under this proposal currently have private health insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $60 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of $640 million paid for with funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits.
  • 11. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 3 After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal? Total Favor .............................................................. 21% Total Oppose .......................................................... 49% Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 30% Refused ..................................................................... 0% Strongly favor ............................................................ 7% Somewhat favor ..................................................... 14% Strongly oppose ...................................................... 25% Somewhat oppose ................................................... 24% T6. One proposal is referred to as the PARTIAL MEDICAID EXPANSION proposal. This proposal would subsidize private health coverage for anyone making less than 100 percent of the federal poverty level, which is estimated to be at least 70,000 individuals. It is estimated that 66 percent of the working age adults in this group are single, and 66 percent do not have children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $25 million in state tax dollars if the federal government approves a more generous federal funding option for this proposal, with the remaining cost of $275 million paid for with funding from the federal government. If the federal government turns down the more generous federal funding option, approximately $75 million in state tax dollars would be required and federal funding would go down to approximately $225 million. In either case, if federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue health coverage or cut Medicaid health benefits. After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal? Total Favor .............................................................. 19% Total Oppose .......................................................... 48% Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 33% Refused ..................................................................... 0% Strongly favor ............................................................ 2% Somewhat favor ..................................................... 17% Strongly oppose ...................................................... 23% Somewhat oppose ................................................... 25%
  • 12. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 4 T7. One proposal is referred to as THE HEALTHY UTAH proposal. This proposal would expand Utah’s Medicaid program by using Medicaid funding to subsidize the purchase of private health insurance for individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid and make less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, as required by Obamacare. It would subsidize health insurance premiums for more than 160,000 individuals whose insurance would cover similar health services as traditional Medicaid. The actual number of qualifying individuals may be significantly higher based on unexpectedly high enrollment in other states that have expanded Medicaid. Some of these individuals currently have private insurance, while others do not. It is estimated that just over 63 percent of working age adults in this group are single, and 61 percent of them are without children. By 2021, this plan is estimated to cost $40 million in state tax dollars, with the remaining cost of approximately $360 million paid for with funding from the federal government. If federal funding were cut in the future, Utah lawmakers would have to decide whether to pay more state tax dollars to continue insurance subsidies or cut Medicaid health benefits. After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal? Total Favor .............................................................. 32% Total Oppose .......................................................... 40% Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 28% Refused ..................................................................... 0% Strongly favor ............................................................ 5% Somewhat favor ..................................................... 27% Strongly oppose ...................................................... 18% Somewhat oppose ................................................... 22% T8. One proposal is to NOT EXPAND MEDICAID RIGHT NOW. This proposal would temporarily leave Utah’s Medicaid program as it is today while lawmakers seek to create new, targeted policies or programs that provide health coverage or services to the most vulnerable individuals who do not currently qualify for Medicaid, such as the medically frail, or individuals whose income is too high to qualify for Medicaid, but is significantly lower than the federal poverty line. These policies or programs would be funded by state tax dollars and may involve some federal funding. Until the new policies or programs are determined, it is unknown how many individuals would qualify for these benefits or services or how much they would cost. When Obamacare allows states to apply for greater Medicaid flexibility in 2017, or if the federal government offers new Medicaid flexibility provisions, such as Medicaid block grants to states, the state would then seek to
  • 13. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 5 significantly reform its Medicaid program in a way that best meets the needs of Utah residents. After hearing information about this proposal, would you say you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose or are you undecided about this proposal? Total Favor .............................................................. 45% Total Oppose .......................................................... 26% Unsure or don’t know ............................................ 29% Refused ..................................................................... 0% Strongly favor .......................................................... 13% Somewhat favor ..................................................... 32% Strongly oppose ...................................................... 16% Somewhat oppose ................................................... 10% T9. Now that you have heard some information about the different proposals and options, which one, if any, do you think is the best proposal or option that should be implemented? Do Not Expand Medicaid Right Now proposal ........ 31% Healthy Utah proposal ........................................... 17% Traditional Medicaid Expansion proposal ................ 15% Partial Medicaid Expansion proposal ....................... 10% Don’t like any of the proposals ................................. 7% Unsure or don’t know ............................................. 20% Refused ..................................................................... 0% T10. Generally speaking, are you more likely or less likely to vote for a candidate for public office that supports expanding Medicaid in Utah? More likely .............................................................. 34% Less likely ............................................................... 42% Unsure or no opinion .............................................. 24% Refused ..................................................................... 0%
  • 14. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 6 T11. Among the following options, which best describes how you pay for your most of your own healthcare expenses? Employer provided healthcare plan ......................... 58% Pay own healthcare not selected from exchange ..... 15% Medicare, the federal program for seniors ................. 9% Pay own healthcare selected from exchange ............. 5% Uninsured and no healthcare plan ........................... 4% Medicaid, the state program for the poor ................... 1% Some other option ..................................................... 7% Refused .................................................................... 1% T12. On most political issues, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or liberal? Conservative ........................................................... 49% Moderate ................................................................ 38% Liberal ..................................................................... 10% Unsure or refused ..................................................... 3% And now I have a few questions for statistical purposes only… T13. Is there anyone currently living in your household that is age 18 or younger? Yes .......................................................................... 44% No .......................................................................... 56% Don’t know or refused ............................................. 0% T14. Are you married, widowed, separated, divorced, single and never been married, or unmarried and living with a partner? Married ................................................................... 77% Single and have never been married ....................... 15% Widowed .................................................................. 3% Divorced ................................................................... 3% Unmarried and living with a partner ......................... 1% Separated .................................................................. 1% No opinion ............................................................... 0%
  • 15. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 7 T15. What is the highest level of education that you have completed? High school graduate or less ................................... 10% Associate or technical degree .................................. 13% Completed some college ......................................... 27% Completed Bachelor’s 4-year college degree ........... 30% Completed some graduate school ............................. 5% Completed graduate degree .................................... 15% Unsure or refused ...................................................... 0% T16. Which of the following age groups applies to you? Are you between the ages of 18 and 29, 30 and 44, 45 and 54, 55 and 64, or are you 65 or older? 18-29 ...................................................................... 18% 30-44 ...................................................................... 31% 45-54 ...................................................................... 16% 55-64 ...................................................................... 16% 65+ ......................................................................... 19% Refused ..................................................................... 0% T17. For statistical purposes only is your ethnicity Hispanic or non-Hispanic? Hispanic ................................................................... 7% Non-Hispanic ......................................................... 92% Don’t know or refused .............................................. 1% T18. For statistical purposes only what is your race? Are you white, black or African American, Asian, Pacific Islander or do you belong to some other racial group? White ...................................................................... 94% Black or African American ........................................ 0% Asian ......................................................................... 0% Pacific Islander .......................................................... 0% Some other group ...................................................... 5% Refused ..................................................................... 1%
  • 16. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 8 T19. Which of the following best describes your current employment status? Employed full time .................................................. 43% Employed part time ................................................. 16% Unemployed or temporarily out of work ................... 4% Retired .................................................................... 18% Homemaker ............................................................ 13% Student ...................................................................... 5% Unsure or refused ...................................................... 1% T20. Again for statistical purposes only, what was the total income of everyone in your household last year before taxes? $20,000 or less ......................................................... 7% $21,000 to $30,000 .................................................. 6% $31,000 to $50,000 ................................................ 13% $51,000 to $70,000 ................................................ 17% $71,000 to $100,000 .............................................. 20% $101,000 to $125,000 ............................................ 12% $126,000 or more ................................................... 13% Unsure or refused .................................................... 12% Survey Methodology This live interview telephone survey was conducted using both landline and cell phone sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a statewide Utah voter file. The survey response data was weighted based upon the voter registration demographics of Utah. The interviews were conducted on September 8th and 9th, 2014. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. Any questions regarding the survey methodology should be directed to David Flaherty, at 303-861-8585 or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com. Utah Voter Registration Demographics The following are demographics compiled from a statewide voter file from the Utah Lt. Governor’s office. Gender Female – 54% Male – 46%
  • 17. Magellan ID#: UTMED-090814 Utah Medicaid Expansion Survey Topline Results Field Dates: 9/8/14 – 9/9/14, MoE +/- 4.38%, 500n Magellan Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Suite 300 | Louisville, CO 80027 www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-8585 9 Party Republican, 44% Unaffiliated and Other Party, 44% Democrat, 10% Age Range 18 to 29, 18% 30 to 44, 31% 45 to 54, 16% 55 to 64, 16% 65+, 19% Region CD-01, 26% CD-02, 25% CD-03, 26% CD-04, 23% Hispanic Origin Quotas The Utah voter file does not indicate the Hispanic origin or race of each individual voter. To determine a reliable estimate of the Hispanic percentage of registered voters we used data from the Pew Research Hispanic Trends Project. Their data estimated that 123,000 Hispanic individuals, or 7% of registered voters were eligible to vote in the 2012 general election. To review their methodology please visit their website at http://ow.ly/BqeOb.