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California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strategies

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Magellan Strategies public releases of the results of a 687n autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election voters in California Congressional District 22 regarding the opinion of Immigration reform. Conducted on October 7th - 8th, 2013

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California Congressional District 21 Immigration Reform Survey - Magellan Strategies

  1. 1. California CD21 Immigration Survey October 7th – 8th, 2013
  2. 2. Magellan Strategies are pleased to present the results of a 573n autodial and cell phone survey of likely 2014 general election voters in California Congressional District 21. The survey was commissioned on behalf of America’s Voice. The interviewing was conducted October 7th - 8th, 2013. This survey has a margin of error of +/4.09% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
  3. 3. Democrats in Congress Image Rating
  4. 4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress? 54% 11% 48% 40% 36% 11% 38% 51% 12% MEN WOMAN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 55% 48% 44% 36% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 20% 18-34 48% 43% 41% 11% 35-44 58% 35% 9% 45-54 32% 10% 55-64 10% 65+
  5. 5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress? 83% 66% 11% 38% REPUBLICAN 51% 21% 9% 8% 58% 28% DEMOCRAT FAVORABLE 14% 14% INDEPENDENT UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 65% 45% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 27% 39% 16% 7% WHITE HISPANIC
  6. 6. Republicans in Congress Image Rating
  7. 7. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress? 55% 49% 13% 39% 31% 35% 15% 12% MEN 52% WOMAN FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 64% 53% 48% 51% 49% 42% FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE UNSURE 31% 32% 33% 32% 21% 15% 16% 9% 4% 18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
  8. 8. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress? 73% 66% 13% 56% 25% 35% 8% REPUBLICAN 52% 12% 15% DEMOCRAT FAVORABLE INDEPENDENT UNFAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 25% UNSURE 6% WHITE UNSURE 55% 47% 47% FAVORABLE 23% 21% 19% HISPANIC
  9. 9. Voter Opinion on Immigration Reform
  10. 10. Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation? 50% 18% 5% 45% 30% 29% 5% 77% 11% 8% 5% MEN 12% WOMAN STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT SOMEWHAT OPPOSE UNSURE 51% 54% STRONGLY OPPOSE 50% 44% 43% TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE 6% 33% 27% 8% 3% 9% 18-34 26% 22% 12% 5% 5% 35-44 19% 5% 4% 45-54 9% 7% 7% 55-64 34% 12% 7% 2% 65+
  11. 11. Thinking now about immigration reform…As you may know, the House of Representatives is beginning to consider different immigration reform proposals. One option is legislation that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status. If immigrants were to meet a list of requirements, they could eventually apply for citizenship. Knowing this information, would you support or oppose this legislation? 56% 41% 34% 18% 5% 25% 14% 8% 3% 77% 37% 32% 14% 4% 12% 5%9% 6% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT SOMEWHAT OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE UNSURE 54% 42% 35% TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE 24% UNSURE 5% WHITE 13% 5% 6% 10% HISPANIC 6%
  12. 12. Voter Opinion on Bi-Partisan Immigration Reform
  13. 13. If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress? 33% 24% 2% 17% 26% 30% 25% 22% 13% 57% 7% 9% 2% 5% 26% MEN 2% WOMAN MUCH MORE FAVORABLE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE 33% 33% 33% 30% 26% TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE 23% 22% 29% 32% 29% 29% 25% TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE 18% NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE 30% 9% 7% 8% 7% 2% 18-34 35-44 11% 8% 8% 4% 45-54 16% 16% 4% 1% 55-64 5% 65+ 2%
  14. 14. If Republicans and Democrats came together to pass a bipartisan immigration reform plan that would significantly increase border security, block employers from hiring undocumented immigrants, and make sure that undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. with no criminal record register for legal status, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Republicans in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Republicans in Congress? 24% 33% 30% 2% 17% 28% 26% 22% 57% REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT UNSURE 12% 5% WHITE INDEPENDENT 27% 26% 20% NO DIFFERENCE 4% SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE UNSURE 31% 30% TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE 26% 13% 8% 12% 7% 2% 10% 1% 4% MUCH MORE FAVORABLE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE 27% 22% 25% 2% 27% 10% 7% HISPANIC 2%
  15. 15. Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress? 38% 16% 20% 3% 32% 29% 23% 9% 61% 18% 15% 14% 8% 9% 2% MEN 4% WOMAN MUCH MORE FAVORABLE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE UNSURE 42% 35% TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE 33% 31% 32% 31% 27% 25% 23% 21% 30% 22% 17% 6% 6% 5% 18-34 12% 10% 9% 6% 35-44 15% 12%11% 11% 3% 4% 45-54 55-64 12% 7% 65+ 2%
  16. 16. Again, if Republicans and Democrats came together to pass the same bipartisan immigration reform plan that I just mentioned to you, would you have a more favorable or less favorable opinion of the Democrats in Congress, or would it not make a difference in your opinion of the Democrats in Congress? 45% 16% 20% 3% 33% 22% 61% 28% 23% 22% 19% 24% 15% 13% 13% 3% 15% 8% 6% 2% REPUBLICAN 6% 2% DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE TOTAL MORE FAVORABLE TOTAL LESS FAVORABLE NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE UNSURE 36% 29% 29% 27% 14% 10% WHITE 16% 3% 17% 7% 9% HISPANIC 4%
  17. 17. Voter Opinion on Immigration Reform
  18. 18. Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship? 43% 40% 32% 24% 25% 15% 14% 6% 11% 11% 5% MEN WOMAN STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT SOMEWHAT OPPOSE 69% 6% UNSURE 38% 45% 43% 41% STRONGLY OPPOSE 40% 33% 31% 29% 25% 21% 19% TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE 12% 18-34 7% 16% 7% 35-44 3% 15% 14% 8% 45-54 11% 9% 55-64 13% 12% 4% 5% 65+
  19. 19. Would you support or oppose an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship? 44% 41% 30% 25% REPUBLICAN 69% 17% 14% 5% 15% 12% 6% 11% 9% 5% 6% 34% 29% 26% DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT STRONGLY SUPPORT SOMEWHAT SUPPORT SOMEWHAT OPPOSE STRONGLY OPPOSE UNSURE 43% 38% 29% 28% TOTAL SUPPORT TOTAL OPPOSE UNSURE 13% 12% 13% 13% 6% 5% WHITE HISPANIC
  20. 20. Voter Opinion on Valadao Support for Reform
  21. 21. If your Congressman David Valadao sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for David Valadao or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for David Valadao ? 41% 35% 35% 24% 21% 35% 4% 35% 3% 38% 6% MEN WOMAN MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE 23% 45% 43% 35% 35% MORE LIKELY 25% 38% 32% 32% 28% 22% UNSURE 5% 18-34 2% 4% 35-44 45-54 35% 22% 18% LESS LIKELY NO DIFFERENCE 36% 33% 7% 4% 55-64 65+
  22. 22. If your Congressman David Valadao sponsored an immigration reform plan that ensured undocumented immigrants currently living in the US pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes and wait a minimum of thirteen years before becoming eligible for citizenship, would you be more or less likely to vote for David Valadao or would it not make a difference in your decision to vote for David Valadao ? 43% 35% 4% 38% 37% 27% 1% 5% 5% DEMOCRAT MORE LIKELY LESS LIKELY INDEPENDENT NO DIFFERENCE 42% LESS LIKELY 27% 19% 5% NO DIFFERENCE UNSURE UNSURE 36% 32% 34% MORE LIKELY 35% 15% REPUBLICAN 23% 37% 34% 33% 28% WHITE 5% HISPANIC
  23. 23. Voter Opinion on Speaker Boehner Allowing a Vote on Immigration Reform
  24. 24. As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship. However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan? 16% 34% 51% 48% 40% 50% 29% 23% 9% MEN WOMAN VOTE NOW HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY 56% 57% 48% VOTE NOW UNSURE 40% HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY 37% UNSURE 34% 19% 4% 18-34 47% 47% 33% 20% 32% 22% 5% 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
  25. 25. As you may know, a majority of members in the U.S. House of Representatives have stated they support an immigration reform plan that ensures undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. pay a penalty, learn English, pass a criminal background check, pay taxes, and wait a minimum of thirteen years before they can be eligible for citizenship. However, the Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner has said he will not allow the House to vote on the bill unless a majority of Republican members support it. Do you think Speaker Boehner should let the members of Congress have a yes or no vote on the immigration reform plan or should he put the vote on hold until a majority of Republican members agree to support the plan? 57% 16% 34% 41% 49% 44% 36% 25% 50% 17% 15% REPUBLICAN VOTE NOW DEMOCRAT INDEPENDENT HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY 50% VOTE NOW 15% UNSURE 49% 36% 33% HOLD UNTIL MAJORITY 17% UNSURE WHITE 14% HISPANIC
  26. 26. Demographics
  27. 27. Demographics 30% 48% 52% Female 22% 16% 13% 18% 1% Male 13% 43% 49% 40% 47% 3% 2% 2% 1% Republican Democrat Independent

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