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MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Rises to 99.3 in 	
January from 95.7 in December
Sentiment Up Ahead of Sochi Olympics
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for
the second consecutive month in January to the
highest level since October, partially fuelled by the
upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics.
The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from
95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level
which separates weakness from strength.
Consumers were more optimistic about their current
conditions than future expectations, with the Current
Indicator rising to the highest level since the series
began in March 2013. The increase was led by an
improvement in both personal finances and
consumer’s propensity to buy a large household
durable. The Expectations Indicator increased more
moderately, led by a rise in optimism for longer term
business conditions.
In spite of the pick-up in confidence and the recent
fall in inflation, consumers concerns over the price
level worsened in January and their expectations for
inflation in a year‘s time remained at a high level.
Most respondents continued to expect that prices
would rise between 11-24% in a year’s time.

Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI
Indicators, Philip Uglow said, “Consumer confidence
bounced back significantly following a weakening in
the past two months. It is likely, though, that with all
eyes on Russia, sentiment was given a short-term
boost by the Sochi Olympics.”
“Concerns over prices and employment remain, with
the latter worsening significantly. Up to now, the
labour market has come through the downturn
unscathed, but a worsening in our sister Russia
business survey and increasing reports of large
layoffs in some parts of the country suggest this
could change.”

For more information, please contact:
Customer Support
support@mni-indicators.com
+44 (0)20 7862 7444

They were even more concerned about the
employment situation with sentiment about the
outlook for jobs hitting a record low in January.

Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
MNI Indicators - January 2014

Overview
Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Highest
Since

Lowest
Since

3-Month
Average

Monthly
Change

Monthly %
Change

MNI Russia Consumer Indicator

94.8

95.7

99.3

Oct-13

-

96.6

3.6

3.8%

Current Indicator

94.3

95.7

102.0

series high

-

97.3

6.3

6.6%

Expectations Indicator

95.1

95.7

97.5

Oct-13

-

96.1

1.8

1.9%

Personal Finance: Current

92.0

92.5

99.3

Aug-13

-

94.6

6.8

7.4%

Personal Finance: Expected

101.7

101.9

101.2

-

Oct-13

101.6

-0.7

-0.8%

Business Condition: 1 Year

94.9

94.4

95.1

Oct-13

-

94.8

0.7

0.7%

Business Condition: 5 Year

88.7

90.8

96.4

Aug-13

-

91.9

5.6

6.2%

Durable Buying Conditions

96.6

98.9

104.7

Oct-13

-

100.1

5.8

5.9%

Current Business Conditions Indicator

97.4

94.9

100.3

series high

-

97.6

5.4

5.7%

110.5

106.9

112.1

Oct-13

-

109.9

5.2

4.9%

Car Purchase Indicator

81.9

81.0

83.3

Oct-13

-

82.1

2.3

2.9%

Employment Outlook Indicator

98.1

98.2

87.2

-

series low

94.5

-11.0

-11.2%

Inflation Expectations Indicator

136.8

138.2

136.9

-

Nov-13

137.3

-1.3

-0.9%

Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator

73.5

71.8

69.4

-

series low

71.5

-2.4

-3.3%

Interest Rates Expectations Indicator

115.5

114.9

115.9

May-13

-

115.5

1.0

0.8%

Real Estate Investment Indicator

MNI Russia Consumer Indicator
102

100

98

96

94

92
Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.

2

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MNI Russia Consumer Overview January 2014

  • 1. Insight and data for better decisions MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Rises to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December Sentiment Up Ahead of Sochi Olympics The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics. The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength. Consumers were more optimistic about their current conditions than future expectations, with the Current Indicator rising to the highest level since the series began in March 2013. The increase was led by an improvement in both personal finances and consumer’s propensity to buy a large household durable. The Expectations Indicator increased more moderately, led by a rise in optimism for longer term business conditions. In spite of the pick-up in confidence and the recent fall in inflation, consumers concerns over the price level worsened in January and their expectations for inflation in a year‘s time remained at a high level. Most respondents continued to expect that prices would rise between 11-24% in a year’s time. Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators, Philip Uglow said, “Consumer confidence bounced back significantly following a weakening in the past two months. It is likely, though, that with all eyes on Russia, sentiment was given a short-term boost by the Sochi Olympics.” “Concerns over prices and employment remain, with the latter worsening significantly. Up to now, the labour market has come through the downturn unscathed, but a worsening in our sister Russia business survey and increasing reports of large layoffs in some parts of the country suggest this could change.” For more information, please contact: Customer Support support@mni-indicators.com +44 (0)20 7862 7444 They were even more concerned about the employment situation with sentiment about the outlook for jobs hitting a record low in January. Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
  • 2. MNI Indicators - January 2014 Overview Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Highest Since Lowest Since 3-Month Average Monthly Change Monthly % Change MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 94.8 95.7 99.3 Oct-13 - 96.6 3.6 3.8% Current Indicator 94.3 95.7 102.0 series high - 97.3 6.3 6.6% Expectations Indicator 95.1 95.7 97.5 Oct-13 - 96.1 1.8 1.9% Personal Finance: Current 92.0 92.5 99.3 Aug-13 - 94.6 6.8 7.4% Personal Finance: Expected 101.7 101.9 101.2 - Oct-13 101.6 -0.7 -0.8% Business Condition: 1 Year 94.9 94.4 95.1 Oct-13 - 94.8 0.7 0.7% Business Condition: 5 Year 88.7 90.8 96.4 Aug-13 - 91.9 5.6 6.2% Durable Buying Conditions 96.6 98.9 104.7 Oct-13 - 100.1 5.8 5.9% Current Business Conditions Indicator 97.4 94.9 100.3 series high - 97.6 5.4 5.7% 110.5 106.9 112.1 Oct-13 - 109.9 5.2 4.9% Car Purchase Indicator 81.9 81.0 83.3 Oct-13 - 82.1 2.3 2.9% Employment Outlook Indicator 98.1 98.2 87.2 - series low 94.5 -11.0 -11.2% Inflation Expectations Indicator 136.8 138.2 136.9 - Nov-13 137.3 -1.3 -0.9% Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 73.5 71.8 69.4 - series low 71.5 -2.4 -3.3% Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 115.5 114.9 115.9 May-13 - 115.5 1.0 0.8% Real Estate Investment Indicator MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 102 100 98 96 94 92 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved. 2