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ECON 204 Final Presentation
Macroeconomics:
Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
Ray Zhu, Economics Major, Duke Kunshan 22’
Email: jz294@duke.edu
Linkedine: linkedin.com/in/家昇-朱-845241177
Ray Zhu
Political Economy - Economics Track
Ray Zhu is a junior student majoring in political economy with economics track at
Duke Kunshan University. Thanks to the liberal arts education and global
community at DKU, he have developed strong interdisciplinary abilities and cross-
cultural communication skills in tackling problems in work and real life. Because of
his outstanding academic performances, he has been awarded dean’s list with
distinction every semester.
As the associate director of the DKU Youth League, he wrote 30+ proposals based
on solid researches, and then launched and organized various events to build an
engaging campus for members from 50+ countries. He is also the Chinese student
representative of DKU Student Review Board. Besides, his biggest interest lies in
reading, music, and traveling. He is an active member in the running club and
intercultural reading club at DKU. This year, he worked with Prof. Luyao and built
the Virtual Behavioral Lab as the founder.
About Author
Dedication & Acknowledgement
I dedicate this study manual of intermediate macroeconomics to my parents,
for they giving me endless love and sending me to university.
I would like to express my special thanks to course instructor Luyao Zhang
who opened the door to macroeconomics for me and gave me the golden
opportunity to research in the virtual behavioral lab and crypto lab.
I would also like to thank Prof. Yulin Liu, Mr. Robert Lauko, and Mr. William
Zhao, who helped me a lot in learning about and understanding
cryptocurrencies.
Prologue
02 03
Future Perspective:
Decentralized Monetary Policy
05
GitHub URL, figures,
articles, webpages, etc.
06
PROBLEM SET III
Simulate Rational
Expectation Theory:
Inflation and Interest Rate
01
REFERENCE
PROBLEM SET I
Macroeconomics Briefing
PROBLEM SET IV
Macroeconomics in
Business Practice:
a field trip to Liquity
04
PROBLEM SET II
Addressing Economic Growth:
An Interdisciplinary Approach
PROBLEM SET V
Table of Contents
Reflections & Expectations
07
EPILOGUE
Part I
Macroeconomics Briefing
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
1. Macroeconomists study a country’s economic growth rate.
What is Macroeconomics?
2. Macroeconomists study inflation, which refers to an increase in the average price level of
a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time.
3. Macroeconomists don’t study product pricing.
4. Macroeconomists don’t study how a person should save for the future.
Macro Data
Figure 1.1 US and China Unemployment Rate
The graph shows the total unemployment rate of the United States and China respectively.
The rate is measured in % of total labor force, from year 1960-2019. Data are from International Labor Organization, ILOSTAT database
Findings
China:
Data on China is not available until 1978, it might be attributed to data
fraud, data opaqueness, and the disruption of the work of the National
Bureau of Statistics during the great cultural revolution.
China‘s unemployment rate was greatly reduced since the economic
reform in 1978. But the decrease only lasted for about 8 years, and then,
more people began to suffer from unemployment according to the figure.
US:
The total unemployment of the US fluctuated a lot during the past
several decades, ranging from 3.5 to 9.7. Briefly look at the turning
points, I think the changes over unemployment rate are related to the
economic recessions and the government policies (either fiscal or
monetary). For example, the unemployment rate climbed rapidly since
2008, and it could be explained as a result of the 2018 financial crisis.
Comparison:
Generally, the unemployment rate is higher in the US than that of China.
We can conclude that China is doing a better job in offering jobs to
people, especially considering China has a much larger population at the
same time.Definition:
Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force that is without work but
available for and seeking employment.
Economic Models - China’s iPad market
9
In the middle of the COVID-19 outbreak, factories retuned to work and the
iPad supply came back to normal.
However, as required by the ministry of education, students stayed home
and took classes online since March. This created a new demand for iPads.
Therefore, the demand curve shifts rightward from the solid blue curve to
the dashed blue curve.
Then, the market-clearing price of iPads rises, and the market-clearing
quantity of iPads also rises.
Figure 1. Effect of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s iPad market (Factories Shutdown)
Figure 2. Effect of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s iPad market (Online Classes)
Market demand curve, the downward sloping curve in the figure, shows the total quantify of iPad demanded.
Market supply curve, the upward sloping curve in the figure, shows the total quantify of iPad supplied.
At the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19, assembling plants and
retail stores were shut down, and Apple reduced the supply of iPads.
Therefore, the supply curve shifts leftward from the solid blue curve to
the dashed blue curve.
Then, the market-clearing price of iPads rises and the market-clearing
quantity of iPads falls.
1. To secure my bachelor degree
major in economics -- ECON 204 is mandatory 😂
Why study Macroeconomics?
2. Toolkits for diagnosing an economy
In contrast to microecon which studies individual benefits and interactions among individuals,
macro focuses on a larger picture – well-being of a country, income inequality, social welfare
3. Make a difference
utilize economics, big data, political science,
public policies, etc. to help at least a group of people
macroeconomists’ solution could make an amazing difference!
4. Have breakfast, lunch, and dinner with eminent economists
in the future! Finally, WIN NOBEL PRIZE!
Prologue
Part II
Addressing Economic Growth:
An Interdisciplinary Approach
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
1. Why Care about GDP Per Capita?
P1. GDP Per Capita
However, GDP Per Capita is not perfect…
Economists cares about individual’s life satisfaction → cannot be directly measured ?
To estimate life satisfaction, we adopt a secondary approach:
GDP per capita
· highly correlated to life satisfaction
· easy to measure, calculate, model
(a) NOT include nonmarket goods/services, e.g. subsistence or black-market production
· which often make up a large share of GDP in developing countries.
(b) NOT account for “public bads” (externalities), e.g. environmental pollution, crime, health pro
(c) NOT account for the distribution of income, as a measure of average income
· Bill Gates and Ray Zhu had an average wealth of 55 billion dollars
· Lorenz Curve / Gini Coefficient; 2020 ratio
(d) Not consider leisure time
2. Limitations on GDP Per Capita measure --- 4NOT!
1. General Conclusions:
The initial variables should not matter, economy that starts with poverty will catch-up
• Initial labor level: L(0)
• Initial Capital level: K(0)
P2. Illustrate “The Convergence of Short-Term Economic Growth.”
2. Case Study Figures
• L(0)0 = 100 → choose L(0)1 = 50, run the code:
graph different, but the same k∗
• K(0)0 = 100 → choose K(0)1 = 150, run the code:
graph different, but the same k∗
3. One Passage Discussion
I have successfully testified my hypothesis!
Although different initial production factors give out different outcomes,
they will finally converge at the same endpoint — a steady state, if other
exogenous variables remain unchanged.
(However, sometimes the initial variable matters! e.g. immigration case)
P3. Illustrate “The Steady State Per Capital GDP”
1. General Conclusions:
• Higher saving rate s
• Lower depreciation rate δ, delta
• Lower population growth n
Leads to higher steady state per capita capital and income.
2. Case Study Figures
• s0 = 0.5, δ0 = 0.1, n0 = 2, run the code and plot, k∗ = 5.95
→ s1 = 0.8, then k∗ = 14.79, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as s increases
→ δ1 = 0.05, then k∗ = 6.10, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as δ decreases
→ n1 = 1, then k∗ = 22.68, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as n decreases
3. One Passage Discussion
It is intuitively easy to understand and reason why higher saving rate,
lower depreciation rate, and lower population growth rate, can lead to a
higher steady state per capita capital and income. In this case, I can further
validate the correlation by a quantitative method. This well explains why and how the one-child policy contributes to economic growth.
P4. Illustrate “The Drive for long-term economic growth”
1. Conclusions and Discussions:
“Science and Technology are the primary productive forces.” (Deng)
Not only raises the growth rate of capital and real GDP per worker in the short run
But also a higher steady-state capital and real GDP per worker in the long run!
2. Case Study
Number tells: A0 = 10, then k∗ = 5.95 → A1 = 20, then k∗ = 23.80
→ A2 = 2, then k∗ = 0.24
Figure tells:
1. How this macro lecture Inspires you about economic growth?
P5. Reflections
2. How do you view the world differently?
Many factors might have an impact on the rate and steady state of economic growth.
Based on appropriate assumptions, we can model the correlations between the factors and economic growth and make an elegant graph by
coding tool such as Python.
Before this class, we see the world in this way… After taking this class…
Prologue
Part III
Simulate
Rational Expectation Theory:
Inflation and Interest Rate
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
Executive Summary for General Results of the Rational Expectation Theory you Learned
The Rational Expectation Model
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md,P
Ms m Y i Md P correlation
change in money
supply:
change in money
demand by
technology level(m):
change in money
demand by real GDP
(Y):
price level targeting:
Task1. Simulate the Equilibrium of Monetary Market
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md,P
In equilibrium, the price level P determined
by the law of supply and demand is 2.5
Imagine there are 1000RMB on
people’s wallets, pockets, or
debit cards in total. We further
assume, at this moment, the
monetary technology level
(transaction cost level) is 1, real
GDP is 20, and interest rate is 5%.
These exogenous variables
would lead to an equilibrium
state where price level P is 2.5
when the monetary market is
clearing out.
If we know Ms, m, Y, I, we can
measure the price level
according to the model.
Task2.1 Simulate a Change in Monetary Supply
Validated by python graphing: when
increase Ms from 1000 to 1780, the
price level P increases from 5.0 to 8.9
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md,P
I predict that the price level P at
equilibrium will increase as Ms
increases according to this model.
Ms Ms’
P
P’
Scenario Immersion:
The government wants to earn revenues by
printing 780 RMB new money. How does price
level respond?
There is more money circulating in the market,
but people’s real demands for consumption still
remain the same. In other words, people are
holding a larger amount of money to buy the
same amount of goods and services. Therefore,
the price level P would increase as one product
would be exchanged for more money.
Task2.2 Simulate a Change in Monetary Demand (from technology)
Validated by python graphing: when me is
decreased from 1 to 0.65, the price level P
increases from 5.0 to 7.7
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md,P
I predict that P will increase as m
decreases in value according to
the model.
m changes Md
P’
P
Scenario Immersion:
People are now more often use Alipay and
WeChat to spend RMB. How does price level
respond?
As a technological innovation, Alipay and
WeChat cut down the transaction costs and may
benefit users for some interest payments. They
are also convenient to use. Therefore, people tend
to hold “money” in Alipay or WeChat rather than
in their pocket or debit cards, which means a
decreasing money demand and leads to higher P.
Task2.3 Simulate a Change in Monetary Demand from Real GDP
Validated by python graphing: when Y is
increased from 10 to 23, the price level P
increases from 5.0 to 2.2
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md,P
I predict that P will decrease as Y
increases according to this model.
When GDP increases, Y changes Md
P’
P
Scenario Immersion:
People are expecting a higher GDP in 2021 than in
2020 in a belief that the COVID-19 pandemic will
be ended soon. How does P respond if it’s true?
Higher GDP means a higher output and better
performance of an economy. Therefore, people tend
to have stronger money demand incentivized by
consuming desires and lower interest rates. Given
the money supply, an increase in real money
demand leads to lower P. (P is counter-cyclical)
It makes sense when in a recession like a pandemic
year, the price level tends to be higher.
Task2.4 Price Level Targeting and Endogenous Money
We can see that when targeting a price level of
7.4, the monetary supply is procyclical, when
real GDP increases from 10 to 20, monetary
supply must increase from 1480 to 2960
For example, we can specify:
Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1
Ms = Md in equilibrium
Exogenous variable: P0, m, Y, I
Endogenous variable: Md, Ms
I predict that Ms will increase as Y
increases according to this model.
Fixed P0 set as a target
When GDP increases, Y changes Md
Ms Ms’
Scenario Immersion:
Policymakers are calculating the amount of
money needed to be put into the market, in order
to reach a GDP level of 20 and a price level of 7.4
in the next year. How much are they going to
offer?
Because GDP increases, as illustrated in previous
slides, the real market demand is going to climb.
So this question has turned to: how does the
money volume help by people change if they are
going to buy more goods at the same price as
before? Obviously, we need more money in the
market.
Task3. Simulate Inflation and Real Interest Rate
Exogenous variable:
P1, π, DA1, i1
Raise the case in which the inflation rate is set as
0.01 as an example.
We can see that the real interest rate (0.01980)
almost equals the nominal interest rate (0.03) minus
the inflation rate (0.01). Moreover, when the
inflation rate is lower than the real interest rate, the
real assets increase from 20.0 to 20.4. As many
people may look at nominal interest rates when they
invest in a bond, they tend to overvalue the return
that they’ll attain. I suggest that decisions should be
made by looking at the real interest rate in which
inflation is taken into account.
Endogenous variable:
P2 = P1(1+ π)
RA1= DA1 /P1
DA2= DA1(1+ i1)
RA2 =DA2/P2
r1 +1=DA2/DA1
When the inflation rate is set as 0.1 it is higher
than the nominal interest rate, so the real interest
rate is actually negative. That’s why the real
assets decrease from 20.0 to 18.7.
When the inflation rate is set as 0.07 it is higher
than the nominal interest rate, so the real interest
rate is actually negative. That’s why the real
assets decrease from 20.0 to 19.3.
Task4. Simulate Government Revenue by Printing More Money
Exogenous variable:
M1, P1, μ1, Y, i, m
Endogenous variable:
M2 = M1(1+ μ1)
P2 =M2 *i/(m*Y)
Government Real Revenue by printing more money: (M2 – M1) /P2
Government can generate real revenue
by printing money. We can see that we
government print 1% more money, the
government revenue is 1.98, which is
19.80% of the real GDP!
The more money printed, the more revenues the government would attain. And this
revenue would take a higher proportion of GDP as more money is printed.
Discuss the Limitations of the Rational Expectation Theory
1. When evidence of reality contradicts? Or when intuition contradicts?
Reality may not always match our expectations.
The greatest criticism against rational expectations is that it is unrealistic to say and to assert that individual
expectations are essentially the same as reality. If it is so, it will mean that individuals not only know the past
history of all the relevant variables, but also the structural parameters of the true economic model.
Forming rational expectations expects too much from individual knowledge and processing power—it is simply
not possible. Information gathering and processing is a very costly affair. If individuals do not or are unable to use
all the available information, it is possible that they may go wrong in forming their expectations.
2. Is Money indeed neutral?
Money is not always neutral.
The growth rate of the money supply could affect real variables. A rise in the monetary growth rate, and the
resulting rise in the inflation rate, lead to a decline in the real return on narrowly defined money. Furthermore,
the change in the money supply may also directly or indirectly affect consumption and production because
individuals, companies, and other actors may respond differently to the changes.
Prologue
Part IV
Macroeconomics
in Business Practice:
A Field Trip to Liquity
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
1. company information
P2. Field Trip Summary
Robert Lauko is the founder and CEO of Liquity. Holding a
Ph.D. in Law from the University of Zurich, Robert served as
a law clerk at the Swiss Federal Administrative Court and in
various other legal roles, before turning into a Blockchain
researcher. In Summer 2017, Robert became the DFINITY
Foundation's first employee in Switzerland. After working on
many layers of their Internet Computer project, including
consensus algorithms and incentive mechanism design,
Robert decided to revolutionize decentralized borrowing
and founded Liquity.
2. CEO information
3. content summary
Liquity - Decentralized Borrowing Protocol
Running on Ethereum, Liquity offers interest-free
loans by issuing its own USD-pegged stablecoin
LUSD against ETH used as collateral. Thanks to a
novel liquidation mechanism, the loans only need to
maintain a minimum collateralization ratio 110%.
P3. Intro to Stablecoin
1. Elaborate Stablecoin in general 2. Why Liquity is a Stablecoin?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to minimize
the volatility of the price of the stablecoin, relative to
some "stable" asset or basket of assets. A stablecoin can
be pegged to a cryptocurrency, fiat money, or to
exchange-traded commodities (such as precious metals
or industrial metals).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stablecoin#:~:text=Stablecoins%20are%20cryptocurrencies%20designed%20to,precious%20metals%20or%20industrial%20metals).
LUSD is pegged with USD, which is very stable among currencies
P4. Stablecoin vs. Monetary Policy
2. Centralized vs. Decentralized
Different from the traditional monetary market where money supply is controlled by the central bank (such as the Federal
Reserves in the US, 中国人民银行 The People’s Bank of China), the money supply might be decentralized in a stablecoin.
For example, the AMPLEFORCE that we use for experiment last week use an automatically adjustment algorithm to change
the money supply, as a response to price fluctuations.
The decentralization feature is more typical in the case of Liquity where each loan maker and the corresponding trove
contributes to the money supply in total. That means, no authority in Liquity system might affect the money supply as the
way as a central bank does.
1. Price Stability Mechanism
The ultimate goal of a series of monetary policies is to stabilize the money price. The design of a stablecoin also share the
same concerns. To reach a relatively stable price, stablecoin is always embedded with some mechanisms to change money
supply or demand to reach a new equilibrium at a designated price; or to incentivize investors to change money supply or
demand to reach that goal.
3. Discretion vs. Rule
I think the application of stablecoin can be viewed as a mixture of rule-based and discretion-based monetary policies.
The ”rule” refers to a reliable and testable algorithm or mechanism; and discretion could be manifested by the chosen
mechanism automatically. People could vote to change the algorithm/mechanism. For example, for Liquity, the price
stability does not rely on variable interest rates or human intervention but is achieved through a redemption mechanism
coupled with algorithmically adjusted redemption and loan issuance fees.
P5. Business Model of Liquity
1. Major Function (Why may people want to buy Liquity?)
Liquity is a protocol which offers an interest-rate free loan in the
form of a stablecoin, LUSD.
Therefore, there could be mainly 5 reasons why people want to
buy Liquity:
1. hold LUSD in relatively stable values instead of volatile ETH
(currency’s “store in value” function);
2. make transactions for special needs (including drugs, weapons,
money-laundering, although illegal);
3. investment (e.g., invest in stability tool and profit from
liquidation);
4. Simply want to get an interest-rate free loan;
5. take some arbitrage opportunities;
2. Operation Procedures: Issuance, Liquidation, Redemption (How does it satisfy people’s needs?)
• LUSD is issued with ETH as collateral, and could be redeemed for ETH at
any time and always at a price of $1.
• LUSD tokens are delivered through two channels: automated issuance
(aka community airdrop) and sales. As shown in the graph, through the
sales channel, tokens are issued to investors, partners, and stakeholders.
• Price stability is achieved through a redemption mechanism coupled
with algorithmically adjusted redemption and loan issuance fees.
• Internal capital stability is ensured by liquidation mechanism.
• Value Capture Loop: The protocol incentivizes front end operators and
early adopters that drive growth while contributing to system stability.
3. Meaning/Values
Besides meeting people’s potential expectations listed in
“part 1” and realizing the price and capital pool stability
through issuance, liquidation, and redemption in “part 2”,
it can also construct a decentralized monetary market.
Here money supply is not controlled by the central bank
but for each loan maker and the troves. Besides,
stablecoin functions well in storing values. One extreme
example of unstable currency would be: you decide to buy
a house priced at 20million bucks one week ago, but now,
when you are to buy the house, it is worth 200million
bucks, then you couldn’t afford it. This fluctuation/loss
could be avoided by the use of a stablecoin.
P6. Reflect on the Field Trip
• See the cutting-edge applications of macroeconomics in cryptocurrency.
• The interdisciplinary study and application of economics, data science, math, and behavioral science.
• This Field Trip gives me a good chance to learn about the concept of stablecoin and a concrete example.
• I am really interested in this field and the future internship opportunities!
Simulation Result from William Zhao, Duke 23’
Part V
Future Perspective:
Decentralized Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
P1. New Monetary Products: Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
Figure. The Development Path of Monetary Policy
Stages of Monetary Policies (1) How it satisfies unsatisfied
needs?
(2) Problems to be solved
Conventional
Monetary Policy
Change money supply
⇒ change interest rate ⇒ adjust inflation
& unemployment rate, and regulate the
market
Change 1:
Conventional monetary policy is
ineffective in a liquidity trap after the
2008 global financial crisis
Unconventional
Monetary Policy
Change money supply to stimulate
economy by ‘price stickiness’ and
‘misperceiving nominal money as real
money’, which are described in 2 models
in Week 5: Keynesian model & price-
misperception model.
(e.g. quantitative easing during the
COVID-19 outbreak)
Change 2:
• Money is losing purchasing power
at a fast pace.
• Money will eventually flow to the
financial markets with higher
returns ⇒ wealth inequality has
been exacerbated.
• Central banks lose independence.
Decentralized Monetary Policy
(and new monetary products)
• Application of block chain, smart
contract, and decentralized finance
• Democratize the centralized
traditional finance sector
• Brings transparency, automation,
openness and the spirit of cutting off
middleman
New Unsolved Problems?
• Security (component breakdown)
• User friendliness
This chart can answer the following 3 questions at once.
1) How the monetary policy satisfied people's unsatisfied needs;
2) The problem to be solved that motivate the next stage of monetary policy;
3) The problem left to be solved that motivate your new research.
P2. Proposed New Research
1. What is the unsolved problems in existing monetary policy?
• User Adoption
• Component Breakdown
Decentralized monetary policy is not perfect! It has mainly two problems.
One is the user friendliness problem, a challenge decentralized finance has
to overcome before it reaches mainstream adoption. The other is the
security risk. The decentralized monetary policy opens up the ecosystem to
new threats— if one of the components isn’t secure, the whole system
might break down.
2. How might my research idea satisfy people’s unsatisfied needs?
1. Research Questions
2. Planned Methodology
3. Possible Results
4. Intellectual Merits & Practical Impacts 3. What might be the limitations for my research idea?
(to be solved by future researchers)
What effect does economic education (or financial education)
have on people’s investment decisions and outcomes?
Educate market participants
⇒ help more make rational/efficient investment decisions
If this research verifies financial education’s effectiveness, it can satisfy
people’s needs to learn financial knowledge and make sound investments.
From the perspective of decentralized monetary entrepreneurs, this research
might solve the problem of low user adoption rate (can be viewed as
“reducing the entry barrier.”)
• Literature review/ text mining
• Comparative Experiment (VB Lab, behavioral experiment)
• Survey/ Questionnaire/ Interview
(investigate investment psychology and needs)
• Interdisciplinary studies (a combination of economics,
behavioral science, educational psychology, data science…)
• Sampling bias (hard to conduct a pure RCT; research result might be
only applicable to one or several specific groups of people but not the all)
• Only focus on user adoption problem; operation breakdown might not
be fixed until further tech upgrade
Compare the investment decisions and results of the targeted
group of people before and after a round of economic education, is
there a promotive effect, a negative effect, or just no effect?
• Promotive effect: economic education can improve people’s
investment decisions and reduce the entry barrier.
• Negative effect/No effect: economic education can’t help
people in making investment decisions. (or maybe the research
design should be improved)
Following the logic of satisfying unsatisfied needs, this research
might help develop the monetary policy and financial market
further. This interdisciplinary study centered on the behavioral
experiment is a very innovative and inspiring method to conduct
research.
Part VI
Reference List
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
Text
Barro, R.J., et al. (2017). Intermediate Macroeconomics (8th Edition).
Perkins, D.H., Radelet, S., Lindauer, D.L., and Block, S.A. (2013). Economics of Development (7th Edition).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrality_of_money
https://www.economicsdiscussion.net/rational-expectations/challenges/7-major-implications-and-challenges-of-rational-
expectations/8181
Prof Luyao, Prof Yulin, Mr. Robert’s slides
Graph
https://data.worldbank.org/
https://www.lucidchart.com/
https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#/media/File:Economics_Gini_coefficient2.svg
https://images.app.goo.gl/SVZMmD2uZAzTsz1Z6
https://images.app.goo.gl/5ohn86WV2F4hrRDTA
Prof Luyao, Prof Yulin, Mr. Robert’s slides
Github Repo
https://github.com/Ray88888888/DKU_Econ204/
Google Colab Notebook
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1lgE77q2SFevkirUx8KW8MW5HAdcPR0Au?usp=sharing
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1cvxweStIUa_kj48znazFBCBzB6judabU#scrollTo=OXgEWYvG65ON
Reference List
Part VII
Epilogue
Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate
Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
P1. Skill Improvements
Hard Skills Soft Skills
Problem Solving
Critical Thinking
Communication & Teamwork
Programming Language
Economic Models & Theories
Data Collection & Chart Making
Used python programming to simulate, graph, and
evaluate an economic model with inputs. Used
GitHub & Google co-lab to facilitate programming.
Constructed economic models based on economic
principles and math derivation. Solved real-life
problems in economic models and provided policy
suggestions.
Collected data and related graph from
https://ourworldindata.org &
https://data.worldbank.org/.
Designed and Made charts by Lucidchart.
Solved problems in interdisciplinary studies of
economics, math, data science, programming, and
behavioral science.
Discussed the relative advantages and limitations
of each economic model and methodologies.
Evaluated macroeconomic phenomenon and
financial products (cryptocurrencies) critically.
Listened, discussed, and co-presented in a team.
Communicated effectively with people from
different backgrounds and countries.
P2. Reflections on the Course
The learning and research on
economics is always a process
of finding unsatisfied needs
and figuring out the way to
satisfy them.
Macroeconomics targets on
the aggregate concept and
fix the problems of the
whole nation/society
instead of individuals.
Programming, data science,
behavioral science and other
disciplines empower
traditional economics to
cope with more complicated
challenges.
Opposite to the traditional
monetary policies controlled by
central banks, decentralized
monetary policy transfers the
power to more participants and
make the decision structure
more reasonable and fair.
THANK YOU
Feel free to contact:
jz294@duke.edu
if you have any questions
+86 13396745760
Duke Kunshan University
No. 8 Duke Avenue
Kunshan, Jiangsu, China 215316
https://www.slideshare.net/secret/LPjwCPqPJ3XlIG

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Final presentation Jiasheng Zhu

  • 1. ECON 204 Final Presentation Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs Ray Zhu, Economics Major, Duke Kunshan 22’
  • 2. Email: jz294@duke.edu Linkedine: linkedin.com/in/家昇-朱-845241177 Ray Zhu Political Economy - Economics Track Ray Zhu is a junior student majoring in political economy with economics track at Duke Kunshan University. Thanks to the liberal arts education and global community at DKU, he have developed strong interdisciplinary abilities and cross- cultural communication skills in tackling problems in work and real life. Because of his outstanding academic performances, he has been awarded dean’s list with distinction every semester. As the associate director of the DKU Youth League, he wrote 30+ proposals based on solid researches, and then launched and organized various events to build an engaging campus for members from 50+ countries. He is also the Chinese student representative of DKU Student Review Board. Besides, his biggest interest lies in reading, music, and traveling. He is an active member in the running club and intercultural reading club at DKU. This year, he worked with Prof. Luyao and built the Virtual Behavioral Lab as the founder. About Author
  • 3. Dedication & Acknowledgement I dedicate this study manual of intermediate macroeconomics to my parents, for they giving me endless love and sending me to university. I would like to express my special thanks to course instructor Luyao Zhang who opened the door to macroeconomics for me and gave me the golden opportunity to research in the virtual behavioral lab and crypto lab. I would also like to thank Prof. Yulin Liu, Mr. Robert Lauko, and Mr. William Zhao, who helped me a lot in learning about and understanding cryptocurrencies.
  • 5. 02 03 Future Perspective: Decentralized Monetary Policy 05 GitHub URL, figures, articles, webpages, etc. 06 PROBLEM SET III Simulate Rational Expectation Theory: Inflation and Interest Rate 01 REFERENCE PROBLEM SET I Macroeconomics Briefing PROBLEM SET IV Macroeconomics in Business Practice: a field trip to Liquity 04 PROBLEM SET II Addressing Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach PROBLEM SET V Table of Contents Reflections & Expectations 07 EPILOGUE
  • 6. Part I Macroeconomics Briefing Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 7. 1. Macroeconomists study a country’s economic growth rate. What is Macroeconomics? 2. Macroeconomists study inflation, which refers to an increase in the average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. 3. Macroeconomists don’t study product pricing. 4. Macroeconomists don’t study how a person should save for the future.
  • 8. Macro Data Figure 1.1 US and China Unemployment Rate The graph shows the total unemployment rate of the United States and China respectively. The rate is measured in % of total labor force, from year 1960-2019. Data are from International Labor Organization, ILOSTAT database Findings China: Data on China is not available until 1978, it might be attributed to data fraud, data opaqueness, and the disruption of the work of the National Bureau of Statistics during the great cultural revolution. China‘s unemployment rate was greatly reduced since the economic reform in 1978. But the decrease only lasted for about 8 years, and then, more people began to suffer from unemployment according to the figure. US: The total unemployment of the US fluctuated a lot during the past several decades, ranging from 3.5 to 9.7. Briefly look at the turning points, I think the changes over unemployment rate are related to the economic recessions and the government policies (either fiscal or monetary). For example, the unemployment rate climbed rapidly since 2008, and it could be explained as a result of the 2018 financial crisis. Comparison: Generally, the unemployment rate is higher in the US than that of China. We can conclude that China is doing a better job in offering jobs to people, especially considering China has a much larger population at the same time.Definition: Unemployment refers to the share of the labor force that is without work but available for and seeking employment.
  • 9. Economic Models - China’s iPad market 9 In the middle of the COVID-19 outbreak, factories retuned to work and the iPad supply came back to normal. However, as required by the ministry of education, students stayed home and took classes online since March. This created a new demand for iPads. Therefore, the demand curve shifts rightward from the solid blue curve to the dashed blue curve. Then, the market-clearing price of iPads rises, and the market-clearing quantity of iPads also rises. Figure 1. Effect of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s iPad market (Factories Shutdown) Figure 2. Effect of COVID-19 outbreak on China’s iPad market (Online Classes) Market demand curve, the downward sloping curve in the figure, shows the total quantify of iPad demanded. Market supply curve, the upward sloping curve in the figure, shows the total quantify of iPad supplied. At the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19, assembling plants and retail stores were shut down, and Apple reduced the supply of iPads. Therefore, the supply curve shifts leftward from the solid blue curve to the dashed blue curve. Then, the market-clearing price of iPads rises and the market-clearing quantity of iPads falls.
  • 10. 1. To secure my bachelor degree major in economics -- ECON 204 is mandatory 😂 Why study Macroeconomics? 2. Toolkits for diagnosing an economy In contrast to microecon which studies individual benefits and interactions among individuals, macro focuses on a larger picture – well-being of a country, income inequality, social welfare 3. Make a difference utilize economics, big data, political science, public policies, etc. to help at least a group of people macroeconomists’ solution could make an amazing difference! 4. Have breakfast, lunch, and dinner with eminent economists in the future! Finally, WIN NOBEL PRIZE!
  • 12. Part II Addressing Economic Growth: An Interdisciplinary Approach Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 13. 1. Why Care about GDP Per Capita? P1. GDP Per Capita However, GDP Per Capita is not perfect… Economists cares about individual’s life satisfaction → cannot be directly measured ? To estimate life satisfaction, we adopt a secondary approach: GDP per capita · highly correlated to life satisfaction · easy to measure, calculate, model (a) NOT include nonmarket goods/services, e.g. subsistence or black-market production · which often make up a large share of GDP in developing countries. (b) NOT account for “public bads” (externalities), e.g. environmental pollution, crime, health pro (c) NOT account for the distribution of income, as a measure of average income · Bill Gates and Ray Zhu had an average wealth of 55 billion dollars · Lorenz Curve / Gini Coefficient; 2020 ratio (d) Not consider leisure time 2. Limitations on GDP Per Capita measure --- 4NOT!
  • 14. 1. General Conclusions: The initial variables should not matter, economy that starts with poverty will catch-up • Initial labor level: L(0) • Initial Capital level: K(0) P2. Illustrate “The Convergence of Short-Term Economic Growth.” 2. Case Study Figures • L(0)0 = 100 → choose L(0)1 = 50, run the code: graph different, but the same k∗ • K(0)0 = 100 → choose K(0)1 = 150, run the code: graph different, but the same k∗ 3. One Passage Discussion I have successfully testified my hypothesis! Although different initial production factors give out different outcomes, they will finally converge at the same endpoint — a steady state, if other exogenous variables remain unchanged. (However, sometimes the initial variable matters! e.g. immigration case)
  • 15. P3. Illustrate “The Steady State Per Capital GDP” 1. General Conclusions: • Higher saving rate s • Lower depreciation rate δ, delta • Lower population growth n Leads to higher steady state per capita capital and income. 2. Case Study Figures • s0 = 0.5, δ0 = 0.1, n0 = 2, run the code and plot, k∗ = 5.95 → s1 = 0.8, then k∗ = 14.79, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as s increases → δ1 = 0.05, then k∗ = 6.10, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as δ decreases → n1 = 1, then k∗ = 22.68, both k∗ and 𝑦∗ increase as n decreases 3. One Passage Discussion It is intuitively easy to understand and reason why higher saving rate, lower depreciation rate, and lower population growth rate, can lead to a higher steady state per capita capital and income. In this case, I can further validate the correlation by a quantitative method. This well explains why and how the one-child policy contributes to economic growth.
  • 16. P4. Illustrate “The Drive for long-term economic growth” 1. Conclusions and Discussions: “Science and Technology are the primary productive forces.” (Deng) Not only raises the growth rate of capital and real GDP per worker in the short run But also a higher steady-state capital and real GDP per worker in the long run! 2. Case Study Number tells: A0 = 10, then k∗ = 5.95 → A1 = 20, then k∗ = 23.80 → A2 = 2, then k∗ = 0.24 Figure tells:
  • 17. 1. How this macro lecture Inspires you about economic growth? P5. Reflections 2. How do you view the world differently? Many factors might have an impact on the rate and steady state of economic growth. Based on appropriate assumptions, we can model the correlations between the factors and economic growth and make an elegant graph by coding tool such as Python. Before this class, we see the world in this way… After taking this class…
  • 19. Part III Simulate Rational Expectation Theory: Inflation and Interest Rate Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 20. Executive Summary for General Results of the Rational Expectation Theory you Learned The Rational Expectation Model For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md,P Ms m Y i Md P correlation change in money supply: change in money demand by technology level(m): change in money demand by real GDP (Y): price level targeting:
  • 21. Task1. Simulate the Equilibrium of Monetary Market For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md,P In equilibrium, the price level P determined by the law of supply and demand is 2.5 Imagine there are 1000RMB on people’s wallets, pockets, or debit cards in total. We further assume, at this moment, the monetary technology level (transaction cost level) is 1, real GDP is 20, and interest rate is 5%. These exogenous variables would lead to an equilibrium state where price level P is 2.5 when the monetary market is clearing out. If we know Ms, m, Y, I, we can measure the price level according to the model.
  • 22. Task2.1 Simulate a Change in Monetary Supply Validated by python graphing: when increase Ms from 1000 to 1780, the price level P increases from 5.0 to 8.9 For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md,P I predict that the price level P at equilibrium will increase as Ms increases according to this model. Ms Ms’ P P’ Scenario Immersion: The government wants to earn revenues by printing 780 RMB new money. How does price level respond? There is more money circulating in the market, but people’s real demands for consumption still remain the same. In other words, people are holding a larger amount of money to buy the same amount of goods and services. Therefore, the price level P would increase as one product would be exchanged for more money.
  • 23. Task2.2 Simulate a Change in Monetary Demand (from technology) Validated by python graphing: when me is decreased from 1 to 0.65, the price level P increases from 5.0 to 7.7 For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md,P I predict that P will increase as m decreases in value according to the model. m changes Md P’ P Scenario Immersion: People are now more often use Alipay and WeChat to spend RMB. How does price level respond? As a technological innovation, Alipay and WeChat cut down the transaction costs and may benefit users for some interest payments. They are also convenient to use. Therefore, people tend to hold “money” in Alipay or WeChat rather than in their pocket or debit cards, which means a decreasing money demand and leads to higher P.
  • 24. Task2.3 Simulate a Change in Monetary Demand from Real GDP Validated by python graphing: when Y is increased from 10 to 23, the price level P increases from 5.0 to 2.2 For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: Ms , m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md,P I predict that P will decrease as Y increases according to this model. When GDP increases, Y changes Md P’ P Scenario Immersion: People are expecting a higher GDP in 2021 than in 2020 in a belief that the COVID-19 pandemic will be ended soon. How does P respond if it’s true? Higher GDP means a higher output and better performance of an economy. Therefore, people tend to have stronger money demand incentivized by consuming desires and lower interest rates. Given the money supply, an increase in real money demand leads to lower P. (P is counter-cyclical) It makes sense when in a recession like a pandemic year, the price level tends to be higher.
  • 25. Task2.4 Price Level Targeting and Endogenous Money We can see that when targeting a price level of 7.4, the monetary supply is procyclical, when real GDP increases from 10 to 20, monetary supply must increase from 1480 to 2960 For example, we can specify: Md/P=m(Y/i), m=1 Ms = Md in equilibrium Exogenous variable: P0, m, Y, I Endogenous variable: Md, Ms I predict that Ms will increase as Y increases according to this model. Fixed P0 set as a target When GDP increases, Y changes Md Ms Ms’ Scenario Immersion: Policymakers are calculating the amount of money needed to be put into the market, in order to reach a GDP level of 20 and a price level of 7.4 in the next year. How much are they going to offer? Because GDP increases, as illustrated in previous slides, the real market demand is going to climb. So this question has turned to: how does the money volume help by people change if they are going to buy more goods at the same price as before? Obviously, we need more money in the market.
  • 26. Task3. Simulate Inflation and Real Interest Rate Exogenous variable: P1, π, DA1, i1 Raise the case in which the inflation rate is set as 0.01 as an example. We can see that the real interest rate (0.01980) almost equals the nominal interest rate (0.03) minus the inflation rate (0.01). Moreover, when the inflation rate is lower than the real interest rate, the real assets increase from 20.0 to 20.4. As many people may look at nominal interest rates when they invest in a bond, they tend to overvalue the return that they’ll attain. I suggest that decisions should be made by looking at the real interest rate in which inflation is taken into account. Endogenous variable: P2 = P1(1+ π) RA1= DA1 /P1 DA2= DA1(1+ i1) RA2 =DA2/P2 r1 +1=DA2/DA1 When the inflation rate is set as 0.1 it is higher than the nominal interest rate, so the real interest rate is actually negative. That’s why the real assets decrease from 20.0 to 18.7. When the inflation rate is set as 0.07 it is higher than the nominal interest rate, so the real interest rate is actually negative. That’s why the real assets decrease from 20.0 to 19.3.
  • 27. Task4. Simulate Government Revenue by Printing More Money Exogenous variable: M1, P1, μ1, Y, i, m Endogenous variable: M2 = M1(1+ μ1) P2 =M2 *i/(m*Y) Government Real Revenue by printing more money: (M2 – M1) /P2 Government can generate real revenue by printing money. We can see that we government print 1% more money, the government revenue is 1.98, which is 19.80% of the real GDP! The more money printed, the more revenues the government would attain. And this revenue would take a higher proportion of GDP as more money is printed.
  • 28. Discuss the Limitations of the Rational Expectation Theory 1. When evidence of reality contradicts? Or when intuition contradicts? Reality may not always match our expectations. The greatest criticism against rational expectations is that it is unrealistic to say and to assert that individual expectations are essentially the same as reality. If it is so, it will mean that individuals not only know the past history of all the relevant variables, but also the structural parameters of the true economic model. Forming rational expectations expects too much from individual knowledge and processing power—it is simply not possible. Information gathering and processing is a very costly affair. If individuals do not or are unable to use all the available information, it is possible that they may go wrong in forming their expectations. 2. Is Money indeed neutral? Money is not always neutral. The growth rate of the money supply could affect real variables. A rise in the monetary growth rate, and the resulting rise in the inflation rate, lead to a decline in the real return on narrowly defined money. Furthermore, the change in the money supply may also directly or indirectly affect consumption and production because individuals, companies, and other actors may respond differently to the changes.
  • 30. Part IV Macroeconomics in Business Practice: A Field Trip to Liquity Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 31. 1. company information P2. Field Trip Summary Robert Lauko is the founder and CEO of Liquity. Holding a Ph.D. in Law from the University of Zurich, Robert served as a law clerk at the Swiss Federal Administrative Court and in various other legal roles, before turning into a Blockchain researcher. In Summer 2017, Robert became the DFINITY Foundation's first employee in Switzerland. After working on many layers of their Internet Computer project, including consensus algorithms and incentive mechanism design, Robert decided to revolutionize decentralized borrowing and founded Liquity. 2. CEO information 3. content summary Liquity - Decentralized Borrowing Protocol Running on Ethereum, Liquity offers interest-free loans by issuing its own USD-pegged stablecoin LUSD against ETH used as collateral. Thanks to a novel liquidation mechanism, the loans only need to maintain a minimum collateralization ratio 110%.
  • 32. P3. Intro to Stablecoin 1. Elaborate Stablecoin in general 2. Why Liquity is a Stablecoin? Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to minimize the volatility of the price of the stablecoin, relative to some "stable" asset or basket of assets. A stablecoin can be pegged to a cryptocurrency, fiat money, or to exchange-traded commodities (such as precious metals or industrial metals). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stablecoin#:~:text=Stablecoins%20are%20cryptocurrencies%20designed%20to,precious%20metals%20or%20industrial%20metals). LUSD is pegged with USD, which is very stable among currencies
  • 33. P4. Stablecoin vs. Monetary Policy 2. Centralized vs. Decentralized Different from the traditional monetary market where money supply is controlled by the central bank (such as the Federal Reserves in the US, 中国人民银行 The People’s Bank of China), the money supply might be decentralized in a stablecoin. For example, the AMPLEFORCE that we use for experiment last week use an automatically adjustment algorithm to change the money supply, as a response to price fluctuations. The decentralization feature is more typical in the case of Liquity where each loan maker and the corresponding trove contributes to the money supply in total. That means, no authority in Liquity system might affect the money supply as the way as a central bank does. 1. Price Stability Mechanism The ultimate goal of a series of monetary policies is to stabilize the money price. The design of a stablecoin also share the same concerns. To reach a relatively stable price, stablecoin is always embedded with some mechanisms to change money supply or demand to reach a new equilibrium at a designated price; or to incentivize investors to change money supply or demand to reach that goal. 3. Discretion vs. Rule I think the application of stablecoin can be viewed as a mixture of rule-based and discretion-based monetary policies. The ”rule” refers to a reliable and testable algorithm or mechanism; and discretion could be manifested by the chosen mechanism automatically. People could vote to change the algorithm/mechanism. For example, for Liquity, the price stability does not rely on variable interest rates or human intervention but is achieved through a redemption mechanism coupled with algorithmically adjusted redemption and loan issuance fees.
  • 34. P5. Business Model of Liquity 1. Major Function (Why may people want to buy Liquity?) Liquity is a protocol which offers an interest-rate free loan in the form of a stablecoin, LUSD. Therefore, there could be mainly 5 reasons why people want to buy Liquity: 1. hold LUSD in relatively stable values instead of volatile ETH (currency’s “store in value” function); 2. make transactions for special needs (including drugs, weapons, money-laundering, although illegal); 3. investment (e.g., invest in stability tool and profit from liquidation); 4. Simply want to get an interest-rate free loan; 5. take some arbitrage opportunities; 2. Operation Procedures: Issuance, Liquidation, Redemption (How does it satisfy people’s needs?) • LUSD is issued with ETH as collateral, and could be redeemed for ETH at any time and always at a price of $1. • LUSD tokens are delivered through two channels: automated issuance (aka community airdrop) and sales. As shown in the graph, through the sales channel, tokens are issued to investors, partners, and stakeholders. • Price stability is achieved through a redemption mechanism coupled with algorithmically adjusted redemption and loan issuance fees. • Internal capital stability is ensured by liquidation mechanism. • Value Capture Loop: The protocol incentivizes front end operators and early adopters that drive growth while contributing to system stability. 3. Meaning/Values Besides meeting people’s potential expectations listed in “part 1” and realizing the price and capital pool stability through issuance, liquidation, and redemption in “part 2”, it can also construct a decentralized monetary market. Here money supply is not controlled by the central bank but for each loan maker and the troves. Besides, stablecoin functions well in storing values. One extreme example of unstable currency would be: you decide to buy a house priced at 20million bucks one week ago, but now, when you are to buy the house, it is worth 200million bucks, then you couldn’t afford it. This fluctuation/loss could be avoided by the use of a stablecoin.
  • 35. P6. Reflect on the Field Trip • See the cutting-edge applications of macroeconomics in cryptocurrency. • The interdisciplinary study and application of economics, data science, math, and behavioral science. • This Field Trip gives me a good chance to learn about the concept of stablecoin and a concrete example. • I am really interested in this field and the future internship opportunities! Simulation Result from William Zhao, Duke 23’
  • 36. Part V Future Perspective: Decentralized Monetary Policy Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 37. P1. New Monetary Products: Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs Figure. The Development Path of Monetary Policy Stages of Monetary Policies (1) How it satisfies unsatisfied needs? (2) Problems to be solved Conventional Monetary Policy Change money supply ⇒ change interest rate ⇒ adjust inflation & unemployment rate, and regulate the market Change 1: Conventional monetary policy is ineffective in a liquidity trap after the 2008 global financial crisis Unconventional Monetary Policy Change money supply to stimulate economy by ‘price stickiness’ and ‘misperceiving nominal money as real money’, which are described in 2 models in Week 5: Keynesian model & price- misperception model. (e.g. quantitative easing during the COVID-19 outbreak) Change 2: • Money is losing purchasing power at a fast pace. • Money will eventually flow to the financial markets with higher returns ⇒ wealth inequality has been exacerbated. • Central banks lose independence. Decentralized Monetary Policy (and new monetary products) • Application of block chain, smart contract, and decentralized finance • Democratize the centralized traditional finance sector • Brings transparency, automation, openness and the spirit of cutting off middleman New Unsolved Problems? • Security (component breakdown) • User friendliness This chart can answer the following 3 questions at once. 1) How the monetary policy satisfied people's unsatisfied needs; 2) The problem to be solved that motivate the next stage of monetary policy; 3) The problem left to be solved that motivate your new research.
  • 38. P2. Proposed New Research 1. What is the unsolved problems in existing monetary policy? • User Adoption • Component Breakdown Decentralized monetary policy is not perfect! It has mainly two problems. One is the user friendliness problem, a challenge decentralized finance has to overcome before it reaches mainstream adoption. The other is the security risk. The decentralized monetary policy opens up the ecosystem to new threats— if one of the components isn’t secure, the whole system might break down. 2. How might my research idea satisfy people’s unsatisfied needs? 1. Research Questions 2. Planned Methodology 3. Possible Results 4. Intellectual Merits & Practical Impacts 3. What might be the limitations for my research idea? (to be solved by future researchers) What effect does economic education (or financial education) have on people’s investment decisions and outcomes? Educate market participants ⇒ help more make rational/efficient investment decisions If this research verifies financial education’s effectiveness, it can satisfy people’s needs to learn financial knowledge and make sound investments. From the perspective of decentralized monetary entrepreneurs, this research might solve the problem of low user adoption rate (can be viewed as “reducing the entry barrier.”) • Literature review/ text mining • Comparative Experiment (VB Lab, behavioral experiment) • Survey/ Questionnaire/ Interview (investigate investment psychology and needs) • Interdisciplinary studies (a combination of economics, behavioral science, educational psychology, data science…) • Sampling bias (hard to conduct a pure RCT; research result might be only applicable to one or several specific groups of people but not the all) • Only focus on user adoption problem; operation breakdown might not be fixed until further tech upgrade Compare the investment decisions and results of the targeted group of people before and after a round of economic education, is there a promotive effect, a negative effect, or just no effect? • Promotive effect: economic education can improve people’s investment decisions and reduce the entry barrier. • Negative effect/No effect: economic education can’t help people in making investment decisions. (or maybe the research design should be improved) Following the logic of satisfying unsatisfied needs, this research might help develop the monetary policy and financial market further. This interdisciplinary study centered on the behavioral experiment is a very innovative and inspiring method to conduct research.
  • 39. Part VI Reference List Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 40. Text Barro, R.J., et al. (2017). Intermediate Macroeconomics (8th Edition). Perkins, D.H., Radelet, S., Lindauer, D.L., and Block, S.A. (2013). Economics of Development (7th Edition). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutrality_of_money https://www.economicsdiscussion.net/rational-expectations/challenges/7-major-implications-and-challenges-of-rational- expectations/8181 Prof Luyao, Prof Yulin, Mr. Robert’s slides Graph https://data.worldbank.org/ https://www.lucidchart.com/ https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#/media/File:Economics_Gini_coefficient2.svg https://images.app.goo.gl/SVZMmD2uZAzTsz1Z6 https://images.app.goo.gl/5ohn86WV2F4hrRDTA Prof Luyao, Prof Yulin, Mr. Robert’s slides Github Repo https://github.com/Ray88888888/DKU_Econ204/ Google Colab Notebook https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1lgE77q2SFevkirUx8KW8MW5HAdcPR0Au?usp=sharing https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1cvxweStIUa_kj48znazFBCBzB6judabU#scrollTo=OXgEWYvG65ON Reference List
  • 41. Part VII Epilogue Macroeconomics: Decentralize the Aggregate Satisfy Unsatisfied Needs
  • 42. P1. Skill Improvements Hard Skills Soft Skills Problem Solving Critical Thinking Communication & Teamwork Programming Language Economic Models & Theories Data Collection & Chart Making Used python programming to simulate, graph, and evaluate an economic model with inputs. Used GitHub & Google co-lab to facilitate programming. Constructed economic models based on economic principles and math derivation. Solved real-life problems in economic models and provided policy suggestions. Collected data and related graph from https://ourworldindata.org & https://data.worldbank.org/. Designed and Made charts by Lucidchart. Solved problems in interdisciplinary studies of economics, math, data science, programming, and behavioral science. Discussed the relative advantages and limitations of each economic model and methodologies. Evaluated macroeconomic phenomenon and financial products (cryptocurrencies) critically. Listened, discussed, and co-presented in a team. Communicated effectively with people from different backgrounds and countries.
  • 43. P2. Reflections on the Course The learning and research on economics is always a process of finding unsatisfied needs and figuring out the way to satisfy them. Macroeconomics targets on the aggregate concept and fix the problems of the whole nation/society instead of individuals. Programming, data science, behavioral science and other disciplines empower traditional economics to cope with more complicated challenges. Opposite to the traditional monetary policies controlled by central banks, decentralized monetary policy transfers the power to more participants and make the decision structure more reasonable and fair.
  • 44. THANK YOU Feel free to contact: jz294@duke.edu if you have any questions +86 13396745760 Duke Kunshan University No. 8 Duke Avenue Kunshan, Jiangsu, China 215316 https://www.slideshare.net/secret/LPjwCPqPJ3XlIG