AIDA is innovative and easy to use — government officials, analysts, researchers, and investors design a package of investments and AIDA reports how the choices affect a country’s economy and population. As such, AIDA will help governments, donors, and other partners to take agricultural investment decisions and to strengthen policy dialogues. This high-level event launched AIDA for a set of four countries: Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen. The event took place as part of the inauguration of the new IFAD Innovation Talks, a platform aiming to advance innovation through mutual learning and partnerships.

1. Modeling Without a Model
Agricultural Investment Data Analyzer (AIDA)
James Thurlow
International Food Policy Research Institute
IFAD Innovation Talks | February 24, 2021
IFPRI-Led Team & Collaborators
Clemens Breisinger, Dalia Elsabbagh, Brian Holtemeyer,
Hosam Ibrahim, Yumna Kassim, Sikandra Kurdi,
Mai Mahmoud, Askar Mukashov, Josee Randriamamonjy,
Mariam Raouf, James Thurlow, Tewodaj Morgues (IMF),
Manfred Wiebelt (Kiel Institute) and Fadi Abdelradi,
Mansour Aldhaibi, Mohmed El Kersh, Wajdi Makhamreh,
Chokri Thabet
National Partners
Egypt: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and
Statistics; Ministry of Agriculture and Land
Reclamation, Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University
Jordan: United Nations Economic and Social Commission
for Western Asia, Ministry of Agriculture
Tunisia: Ministry of Development, Investment and
International Cooperation; Tunisian Institute for
Competitiveness and Quantitative Studies
Yemen: Ministry of Planning and International
Cooperation; Social Fund for Development

2. Problem
Making Tough Investment Decisions
Irrigation
Extension
Inputs
Credit Markets
Many
investment
options
Roads
Multiple
development
goals
+ =
Unavoidable
trade-offs
Farm incomes
Agri-food supply
Food security
Poverty
Women’s
empowerment
Diet
quality

3. Solution
Using Models as Decision-Support Tools
Rural Investment and Policy Analysis
RIAPA
• Economywide data and modeling system
(all sectors, households, government)
• Captures agri-food system
(farming, processing, trading, restaurants, etc.)
• Tracks multiple outcomes
(GDP, poverty, jobs, diets, etc.)
Agricultural Investment Data Analysis
AIDA
• Investment planning tool
• Converts spending into production gains
(using data on unit costs, farm/firm impacts, etc.)
• Compares returns of different investments
(including interventions across the agri-food system)
Total spending
Cost per hectare
Yield gain per
hectare
Production
gains
X =
Core AIDA
calculations
Additional
variables
Asset accumulation, depreciation, maintenance costs,
diminishing returns, private vs. public spending, etc.
RIAPA models for 30 countries
(75% of world’s poor population)

4. New Problem
Our Best Models Are Too Cumbersome
Complicated code
Expensive software
Unreliable model

5. Innovation
Putting Our Models in the Cloud (and on Your Phone)
Web interface for creating
investment packages
Cloud database containing up
to 12 million simulations
Web interface for exploring &
exporting results
Search database for closest
matching simulation
Send simulated impacts
back to the user
User designs a package of
investments online
1 2 3
Sector 1 gains
Sector
2
gains
High Low
Density of simulations

6. Online AIDA Today
Selected Investment Options
Egypt’s investment options
• Country-specific options
(based on public spending and national plans)
• Default values for parameters
(unit costs, productivity gains, etc.)
Four Countries
Tunisia Egypt Jordan Yemen
Egypt
aida-egypt.ifpri.org
Jordan
aida-jordan.ifpri.org
Tunisia
aida-tunisia.ifpri.org
Yemen
aida-yemen.ifpri.org