Pieter van Asten presented this at Offshore Europe 2013. Lloyd's Register Energy - Drilling (formerly ModuSpec and WEST Engineering) have, together with Lloyd's Register Consulting (formerly Scandpower and LR ODS) developed a BOP Risk Model based on the popular RiskSpecturm, which is used on 50% of the world's nuclear power stations. In this presentation, Pieter discusses how the BOP Model was developed and how, in the case of a failure, the Model can reduce days of non productive time (NPT) into hours. For more informtation about the BOP RIsk Model, please visit www.lr.org/bopmodel

1. SPE 166581-MS
Pull or No-pull:
Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea
Blowout Preventers (BOPs)
Pieter van Asten, Lloyd’s Register Energy – Drilling

2. Innovation comes after denial and before success
Pieter van Asten 2013
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

3. •
The BOP risk model background
•
•
The project
•
•
why was it made and for what
purpose?
how was it done and by whom?
The solution
•
what is the result and how is it used?
•
The conclusion
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

4. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
The tragic Gulf of Mexico accident in April 2010 can be marked
as the moment that confirmed the idea for making a subsea
BOP (Blow Out Preventer) risk model.
It showed that society, enabled by
(social-)media, is our biggest stakeholder
with its own risk acceptance perception.
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

5. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
What does the
majority of society
remember about this
tragedy?
Societal risk awareness and its (non-) acceptance created the
need to manage these risks and became the foundation for the
demand for a solution to enable this.
•The
industry was faced with a very conservative approach to
BOP component failure
•This conservatism was fed by the fear that something could go
wrong as we all saw happening which was very costly
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

6. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
A focal point of attention and contribution to what
happened in April 2010 became the subsea BOP
With our stakeholder’s biggest concerns in focus, the objective of the
requested solution became:
“Enable assistance in decision making if a BOP needs to be pulled or
not by means of risk based consistent failure investigation and effect
modelling and due communication”
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

7. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
A subsea BOP is a special system and among few systems
combining multiple functions:
•Drilling operations control
•Risk prevention tool (preventer)
•Emergency response tool
It is also
•Highly regulated
•Not visible when operational
These combinations mean simple component failures can cause
severe risk exposure and non-compliance.
But what to do when a
component
may have or has failed?
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

8. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
Delivery of objective assessment and consistent
communication about the risk of a BOP component
failure leading to a decision to continue or suspend
operations has proven to be a challenge.
Some symptoms:
•BOP pulling is costly and time consuming: major NPT
•BOP pulling is a risk in itself:
Leaving it down with known failure may mean taking
safety risks or being out of regulatory compliance
•Non consistent decision-motivation to senior management,
regulatory bodies and other stakeholders in the industry
•Different solutions for similar problems on different rigs or
crews
•Lack of risk based information to enable management of
compliance aspects against cost of NPT
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

9. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
Today, drilling operations are always balancing
between conflicting factors:
NPT (Costs) – Risk (Safety) - Compliance
Our solution and its approach to this has a true innovative
character in every aspect:
•High
(society and industry) stakes
•A joined effort with five involved parties
•No route-map but the main objectives
•An industry looking at us
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

10. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
What made it succeed?
I worked with people that were involved in the extreme
circumstances after the accident and who lost colleagues.
That made me very humble and realized that we just could
not fail: there was too much at stake: safety and lives.
I worked with a wonderful team and this team effort, including
our client, was one of the most contributing factors for our
success.
I am proud of
•what we did;
•how we did it and
•what we achieved.
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

11. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
The total risk model is like a three dimensional cube with
six sides that input and affect the outcome and each other.
The cube’s three dimensions
represent the complexity and
interaction of all aspects
of a complete BOP risk model.
How is all this information combined to
become a risk model?
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

12. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

13. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
The risk model assesses the effect of component
failure by calculations and expresses this in a risk
level taking regulations, specifications and
operational procedures into account.
A color-coding traffic light is used as visual
indication to express the risk level of the whole
BOP, a subsystem or component.
•Red
•Orange
•Yellow
•Green
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

14. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
Example of the user screen showing the effect of
a failure of the 5k to 3k regulator to the blue POD.
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

15. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
BOP risk model solution:
• Risk-based approach in balancing
the conflicting factors
• Consistent, transparent pull or no pull
decision assistance and motivated
decision reporting to all stakeholders
• Better prioritization of maintenance
• Industry credit: done with a major drilling contractor
• Regulator agreement on methodology (BSEE)
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

16. •
Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
Pre-considered equipment failure:
•
No need to go through all information and
•
assessments upon component failure
•
Reduction of rig downtime:
•
Faster pull or not-pull decision
•
Records history of failed and restored
components to assist pull, no-pull decisions
The model cannot be changed by operating crew.
•
Is unique for every BOP and regulatory environment
•
Does not take away or replace thinking, competence or
responsibility
•
•
Enables training and can create what-ifs: play with different
failure scenarios
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

17. Background
Project
Solution
Conclusion
Preventing one unnecessary BOP pull proves the
value of a BOP risk model.
Saving one life with the BOP risk model makes it
truly invaluable
This allows for the next steps towards failure prevention:
•
•
•
•
•
BOP reliability and integrity management optimization
Maintenance and spare parts management optimization
Enhanced graphical representation
Web-based application
Other operational or safety critical equipment
SPE 166581-MS • Pull or No-pull: Risk-based Decision Support for Subsea Blowout Preventers (BOPs)• Pieter van Asten

18. Slide 18
For more information, go to:
www.lr.org/BOPmodel