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[Task 1 1] analysis of the current energy situation in the gms countries
- 1. Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion By Associate Prof. Dr. Pham Hoang Luong Dr. Nguyen Thi Mai Anh Dr. Do Tien Minh International Dissemination Workshop 17 September 2015, Bangkok Funded by UK Research Councils’ Energy Program, the department for International Development (DFID) and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), and managed by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)
- 2. Analysis of the Current Energy Situation for GMS Countries Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion Contents Description of Task 1 Analysis Results Some Key Findings and Conclusions
- 3. Description of Task 1 Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion Objectives: To obtain baseline information and an assessment of the current energy situation for GMS countries Subtask 1.1: To analyze historical development of energy consumption and energy efficiency for GMS countries Subtask 1.2: To project energy demand with special focus on new modern energy consumers using LEAP model Subtask 1.3: To analyze energy data at the end-user level to see the data availability for setting baselines
- 4. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand in GMS countries 1.1 Energy consumption at national level 0.0 10,000.0 20,000.0 30,000.0 40,000.0 50,000.0 60,000.0 70,000.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 KTOE Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Figure 1: Total final energy consumption by GMS countries Source: (MECON Project Team Report, 2013)
- 5. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.1 Energy consumption at national level Figure 2: Share of sectoral energy consumption in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team’s Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Agriculture Commercial Industry Residential Transport
- 6. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.1 Energy consumption at national level Figure 3: Share of fuel mix in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Geothermal Biofuels and waste Electricity Heat
- 7. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level Figure 4: Household’s energy consumption in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 KTOE Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 8. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level Figure 5: Share of household’s energy consumption by fuel in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 1990 2010 Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam % Coal Oil product Natrural Gas Bio-fuels and waste Electricity
- 9. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level Figure 6: Electricity consumption in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GWh Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 10. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 1. Historical development of energy demand 1.2 Energy consumption at household’s level Figure 7: Share of household’s electricity consumption in total national electricity consumption in GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 11. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 2. Status of Energy Efficiency in GMS countries 2.1 Energy intensity at national level Figure 8: Energy intensities of the GMS countries Source: (MECON Project Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 TOE/000' USD2005 PPP Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 12. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 2. Status of Energy Efficiency 2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level Figure 9: Household’s energy consumption per capita GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 KgOE per capita Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 13. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 2. Status of Energy Efficiency 2.2. Energy efficiency at household’s level Figure 10: Household’s electricity consumption per capita GMS countries Source: (IEA, 2014) and (MECON Project Laos Team Report, 2014) * Data for Cambodia is available from 1995 only 0 50 100 150 200 250 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 KWh per capita Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam
- 14. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 2. Status of Energy Efficiency 2.3 Energy efficiency targets and policies • All GMS countries have taken steps to improve energy efficiency. The range of adopted policies and measures vary among those countries: - All GMS countries have energy efficiency policies and strategies - Limited application of MEPS in Thailand and Vietnam - Energy label is mandatory for some products in Thailand and Vietnam but volunteer in other countries - Except Thailand, ESCOs have not been established in remaining countries • Barriers to Energy Efficiency improvement are: - Narrow focus (without consideration of economy-wide impacts) - Lesser role for mandatory measures, incentives and practical implementation - Distortion of energy price caused by cross-subsidy - Lack of awareness and expertise
- 15. Analysis Results Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion 4. Availability of energy data for setting baseline Data Cambodia Laos Myanmar Thailand Vietnam International Domestic International Domestic Internationa l Domestic International Domestic International Domestic GDP IEA UNESCAP IEA IEA IEA GSO Population IEA LSB IEA WB IEA GSO Family size LSB NESDP GSO Poverty rate LSB WB GSO Private consumption UNESCAP WB GSO Energy consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA Electricity consumption IEA MEM IEA IEA Electrification rate MEM WB EVN EE of Appliances Survey Rate of EE appliances Survey Energy consumed by appliances Survey
- 16. Some Key findings and Conclusions Effective energy efficiency policy implementation targeting “New Modern Energy CONsumers” in the Greater Mekong Subregion • GMS countries have experienced: - a sharp increase in energy consumption which are driven by economic growth, population growth, industrialization, urbanization and change in people’s living style. - a big change in the way that the energy was used, both fuel structure and energy-efficient technology application • For the same reasons mentioned above, GMS countries will continue to face the increase in energy demand in the future. If these no appropriate policy measure taken place, this would invite some big challenges including insecurity of energy supply , environmental pollutions and socio- economic problems • There are many opportunities and rooms for Energy efficiency improvement in GMS countries. The range of adopted policies and measures include regulations, market-based and financial instruments, and information and awareness measures. • There is a need for regular updating energy data through surveys and statistical data collection system