The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)


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The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook (public edition)

  1. 1. The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook
  2. 2. The Context:ASEAN grows fast, large demand on energy The world economy is moving from a post-crisis bounce-back phase of the recovery to slower but Southeast Asia move faster – how does it affect global demand growth? Energy Efficiency is the most effective way of meeting future demand - but are the current plans effective enough? Coal and Natural gas production are greater than current consumption – but are they enough for future demand? Vietnam will join Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand dominate the regional energy future – but where will their policy decisions lead us? ©ACE, February 2011
  3. 3. The 3rd Outlook:Energy Efficiency as Alternative Scenario The 1st on 2007,The 2nd on 2009, The 3rd on 2011 Joint output by ACE, IEEJ, and National ESSPA Teams Two (2) Scenarios: 1. Business-as-Usual (BAU) Scenario Base on GDP Growth Targets of the 10 Member States 2. Alternative Policy Scenario Base on Energy Saving Goals and Action Plans of 10 Member States in primary energy demand and CO2 emissions ©ACE, February 2011
  4. 4. Socio Assumption:GPD and Population Growth Rate*Country GDP Pop Growth  GDP Projections isBrunei Darussalam 2.6% 2.1% slightly lower than onCambodia 6.9% 1.3% the previous outlookIndonesia 6.3% 1.1% due to globalLao PDR 7.5% 1.7% economic crisis, butMalaysia 5.0% 1.6% ASEAN keep goingMyanmar 9.0% 1.7% above the worldPhilippines 4.9% 1.4% averageSingapore 3.9% 0.7%Thailand 4.1% 0.3%Vietnam 7.5% 0.9%ASEAN 5.2% 1.1% *Source: 10 ASEAN Member States ©ACE, February 2011
  5. 5. Oil Price Assumption:Base on Japan CIF The world is facing the high oil price, double than today in 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
  6. 6. Alternative Policy Scenario:1. EE&C TargetsBrunei Darussalam 25% EI from 2005 level by 2030Cambodia 10% TFEC all sectorIndonesia 1%/year TFEC from BaULao PDR 10% TFEC all sectorMalaysia 10% TFEC Industrial, Commercial and Residential from 2011 to 2030 1.39 ktoe TFEC Transportation by 2030Myanmar 5% TPEC by 2020 and 8% by 2030 compare to BaU Improve 16% Energy Efficiency in all end-usePhilippines 10% TFEC all sectorSingapore 20% EI by 2020 and 35% by 2030 from 2005 level Cap 63 Mt-CO2 by 2020Thailand 25% total energy by 2030 compare to BaUVietnam 3%-5% TFEC by 2010 and 5%-8% by 2010-2015 ©ACE, February 2011
  7. 7. Alternative Policy Scenario:2. RE and Biofuels TargetsBrunei Darussalam 10 MV PV by 2030 No targetCambodia 1.5 MV PV, 87 kW Biomass, 500 kW Micro-hydro No targetIndonesia Energy Mix by 2025: 5% Geothermal, 2.6% hydro, +5% biofuels 0.03% wind, 0.74% biomassLao PDR Hydro project No targetMalaysia By 2030: 1340 MW Biomass, 410 MW Biogas, 490 5% for road transport MW Mini-hydro, 854 MW Solar, 390 MW Municipal Solid WasteMyanmar 15%-20% RE in Electricity Generating 8% for road transportPhilippines New by 2030: 1,500 MW Geothermal, 2,100 MW Displace 15% of diesel and Hydro, 950 MW, 71 MW PV, 102 MW Biomass 20% of gasolineSingapore 5% PV in Energy Mix No targetsThailand 6,329 MW of RE 12.2% for transportVietnam By 2030: 2100 MW Wind, 2400 MW Hydro, 400 MW No targets Biomass ©ACE, February 2011
  8. 8. Alternative Policy Scenario:3. Nuclear Energy TargetsBrunei Darussalam No targetCambodia No targetIndonesia 1.4% nuclear of energy mix by 2025Lao PDR No targetMalaysia 2,000 MW by 2023Myanmar No targetPhilippines 2,000 MW by 2025Singapore No targetThailand Develop 5,000 MW from 2020 to 2028Vietnam 1,000 MW by 2020, increase to 10,1000 MW by 2030 ©ACE, February 2011
  9. 9. Final Energy Consumption:By SectorGrow at an annual rate of 4.4% from 2007 to 2030 reaching almost 1,018 MTOE in BaU, with the transport sector as the fasted, driven by the increasing per capita income. But, in APS, grow at a lower annual rate of 3.6% with the total potential saving will be around 17.2% ©ACE, February 2011
  10. 10. Final Energy Consumption:By Fuel Type Oil will remains as the most used fuel ≈ 45% share by 2030, both in BaU and APS. But, applying APS, there are 18.6% saving potential for oil, 20.3% coal, 17.4% electricity , and 12.6% natural gas. ©ACE, February 2011
  11. 11. Primary Energy Supply:RE shines, but Fossil Fuels stay dominant Coal keeps growing as the highest, driven by the demand increase in Industry and Power Generation, but Transport will brings Oil stay dominant. Geothermal rise in Indonesia and Philippines, hydropower in Great Mekong, and Nuclear in Thailand and Vietnam. APS can reduce 18.5% from BaU by 2030. ©ACE, February 2011
  12. 12. Power Generation:Coal and Gas will continue to form bulk of supplyProjected to increase 4x by 2030 with Coal and Gas will continue as the backbone of regional electricity generation. Oil share will decrease significantly due to diversification program for alternative fuels and renewable portfolio standard implemented. ©ACE, February 2011
  13. 13. CO2 Emission:High Growth, ASEAN should reduce a lotHigh annual escalation of Coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, driven the high projection CO2 emission growth (5.7% per year). Applying APS can reduce about 697 Mt-C, 24% lower than 895Mt-C in BaU. ©ACE, February 2011
  14. 14. Energy Intensity:Increase regional living standardImprovement in fuel mix where natural gas comes more dominant as the feedstock for power generation and improvements in energy efficiency, bring EI decrease almost 50% by 2030 (APS). Advanced economies with high living standards have relatively increase energy use per population to at 3.4% per year (BaU) ©ACE, February 2011
  15. 15. Country Energy Share:Vietnam will join dominate energy futureThe share of Indonesia’s primary energy supply is decreased during 1990 to 2007 due to the rapid increase of the requirement of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. But by 2030, as experience and still projected to has high economic growth, Vietnam will join as dominant with annual growth rate of 6.3%. ©ACE, February 2011
  16. 16. Energy Efficiency:Recent plans, would make a difference but need moreEnergy saving goals set by the government of the 10 ASEAN Member States; energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy including biofuels and nuclear, would able to reduce final energy consumption. Effectively apply in Indonesia: reduce 25%, Thailand 22%, Malaysia 21% and Brunei 20%. ©ACE, February 2011
  17. 17. Renewable Energy:Rise but not fast enoughAlthough the number of Others (covers mostly biomass use by the final sector and supply of renewable energy such as bio-fuels, wind, solar, etc)is keep rising, but it will have a slower growth rate of 1.7% per annum. By 2030, its predicted only 13.4% share in Total Primary Energy Consumption, compare 23.5% in 2007. ©ACE, February 2011
  18. 18. Implications:Challenge facing energy security As member countries continue to pursue their economic goals, primary energy consumption and CO2 emission (dominant oil, gas and coal) in region will increase three folds – increasing pressure on energy security and global environmental stability. If current levels of energy production do not increase – region will have to source out from outside. Appropriate energy efficiency and conservation programs, low emission technology, and increased shares of non-fossil fuels in Power Generation – reduce carbon intensity and contribute to energy security. ©ACE, February 2011
  19. 19. Policy Recommendations:Regional stands facing energy security Encourage more aggressive energy efficiency and conservation measures i.e modal shift in transportation sector, high efficient clean coal technology, CDM projects, etc. Formulating mechanisms/regulations to remove subsidies to fossil fuel energy and provision of incentives to encourage further development of renewable energy, hydrocarbon resource potential as well as nuclear energy. Establishing energy management systems and energy efficiency standards. Strengthening regional cooperation especially in sharing best practices in energy development and utilization. ©ACE, February 2011
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