This document summarizes a presentation given at an event on cycling industries in 2030. The presentation discusses factors that could influence e-bike sales in Europe to reach 30 million units per year by 2030. It is argued that e-bike sales are growing at an average of 22% per year currently. However, sales could be higher if cycling is prioritized and made accessible to more people. The presentation identifies four influencers - money, regulation, knowledge, and infrastructure development - and provides examples of policies and investments that could encourage more cycling and higher e-bike sales under each category. Scenarios are presented suggesting potential e-bike sale levels depending on whether policies prioritize cycling or maintain the status quo.

1. #cyclingindustries2030

2. Disclaimer
This presentation was given by the named presenter at the event “Cycling
Industries 2030 – taking the lead in new mobility” on 22nd May 2019 in
Brussels.
Please respect our partners and supporters who have given their
contribution to the event freely in order to promote the aims of Cycling
Industries Europe.
The content of the presentation is the opinion and intellectual property of
the presenter, and not of CIE.
The presenters have allowed CIE to share the presentations with event
attendees. Use of the material for commercial purposes and the re-use of
images and data contained within these slides can only be with the express
permission of the contributor who is named in the presentation.

3. Can e-bike sales reach 30
million units per year by
2030 in Europe?
Adam Bodor
Advocacy & EuroVelo Director, European Cyclists` Federation
22/05/2019
ECF gratefully acknowledges
financial support from the European
Commission.

4. Topics
▪ What is the trend regarding e-
bike sales?
▪ What influences?
▪ What can be done on the
European level?
4

5. People like buying and
doing things if they are
attractive/posh, safe,
easy, affordable! – Is it
true for cycling? 5

6. 6
Now only for a
certain group of
people or in certain
places
For others - women,
kids, elderly – it is
more difficult!

7. People like buying and
doing things if they are
attractive/posh, safe,
easy! – Is cycling easy?
7

8. People like buying and
doing things if they are
attractive/posh, safe,
easy! – Is cycling easy?
8
The EU
population:
512,6
million
Potential
“buyers”:
343,4
million

9. The e-bike/pedelec sales
are growing, and it can
reach 30 million in Europe
by 2030 if people can
choose cycling (freely)!
.E-bikes .
,can make the
.difference!.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2020 2025 2030

10. Why is it possible?
▪ In 2017 we forecasted 16% growth
per year (based on 2013-2015
figures)
▪ We forecasted: 12 million e-bikes
will be sold per year in 2030 10

11. Why is it possible?
▪ The reality is an average of 22%
increase per year in 2015-2017!
▪ EUCS 2.0 forecast: 18.5
million/year!
11

12. Success factor: High quality e-bikes are available!

13. Success factors – cycling friendly environment:
Infrastructure Services Promotion

14. Which way do we choose?
14
Title
?
Cycling friendly environment = cycling is prioritized!

15. What is priority? Indicator: allocation of public space
Priority for motorized
transport
Level playing field for
cycling
Priority for active modes
and cycling

16. What is priority? Indicator: allocation of public space
Priority for motorized
transport
Level playing field for
cycling
Priority for active modes
and cycling

17. What is priority? Indicator: who can chose to cycle / use an
e-bike?
Limited part of the
population
Core urban area
population
Majority of the EU
population

18. Ways to influence the success factors
Money Regulation
Knowledge Doing it!

19. Money
Regulation
Knowledge
Doing it!

20. Influencer:
of transport investments
goes in cycling
of transport investments
goes in cycling
of transport investments
goes in cycling
1% 10% 20%
Money

21. Influencer: Money

22. Influencer: Money
+ 0.5 billon!

23. Influencer:
Standard VAT for e-
bikes, subsidies for e-
cars
Reduced VAT and
subsidies for e-bikes
Zero VAT and subsidies
for e-bikes, no e-car
subsidy
€ € €
Regulation

24. Influencer:
Company car schemes
dominate
Equal subsidies for
bike and drive to work
Extra tax on car use (no
company car schemes)
Regulation

25. Influencer:
Obligatory insurance
for pedelec
Obligatory insurance for
speed pedelec only
No obligatory insurance
for any of it
Regulation

26. Influencer:
Obligatory helmet laws
in 9 EU countries
No new obligatory
helmet laws
No helmet laws in any
country
Regulation

27. Accelerators and breaks | Regulations (4/4)
Very few car free
zones and low parking
fees
Car free cities and high
parking fees
Regulation

28. Ways to influence MoneyRegulation

29. Influencer: Knowledge
Cycle Highway
Academy
Manual, website

30. Ways to influence – EU level
Money Regulation
Knowledge Doing it!

31. Money
Regulation
Knowledge
Doing it!

32. Influencers:
Low quality cycling
infrastructure
High quality cycle routes
in cities
High quality cycle
highways in and between
cities/towns
Doing it!

33. Scenarios
E-bike sales in millions, per year (2019-2030)
33
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2020 2025 2030
Scenario I
Priority for
cycling
Scenario 0
Level playing field
(EUCS 2.0)
Scenario -I
Business as usual

34. Acknowledgements:
Fabian Küster Holger Haubold Omer Malak
34
ECF gratefully acknowledges
financial support from the European
Commission.

35. Thank you !
www.ecf.com
Adam Bodor – Advocacy and EuroVelo Director
a.bodor@ecf.com