Chinese Diabetes Pharmaceutical Market surpassed USD 3 bn in 2012 and is expected to achieve 7bn in 2007. according to Emergpharma's latest report presented yesterday. It is one of the fastest growth segment in the Global Pharmaceutical Market. Novo Nordisk, Bayer and Sanofi dominates this market with more than 50%.

1. Chinese Diabetes
Pharmaceutical Market
August 2013

2.  19 Chapters (165 pages) analyzing
 Epidemiology,
 Pool of treated patients
 Market dynamics
 Market segmentation by type of treatment, family of products, products, marketers and
affordability
 Market players and their strategies
 Health Economics in China
 Impact of the reform in diabetes treatment
 The reimbursement system and its impact on diabetes market
 Market forecast 2013-2017
 72 explanatory charts, tables and figures to facilitate key success factors understanding and
save time
 Directed and written by the reputed expert in emerging pharmaceutical markets and Head of
Emergphama`s Business Intelligence Unit Jose I. Díaz
Emergpharma, consulting company founded in
2008 and specialized in pharmaceutical emerging
markets is launching its
“Chinese Diabetes Pharmaceutical Market Report Outcomes 2013-2017”

3. – Why Glucobay keeps its position as OAD market leader despite new generation products
availability and despite in most developed markets Glucobay failed to become a big
player. Why it is expected to remain at least two more years as market leader
– Why Insulin market is expected to grow faster in China than in other markets, driving the
market to even higher levels of growth
– Why, despite what happens in other segments, MNC’s (multinationals) dominate the
diabetes market in China
– Why although it has been estimated in USD 7 bn the diabetes pharmaceutical market
size in 2007, it would achieve 8 or even 9 million if some favorable conditions happens
simultaneously.
– Why companies like West Pharmaceutical and other delivery suppliers have an
important path to grow in China in the shadows of big Pharmaceuticals
– Where big/middle sized Asian Pharmaceutical Companies have an interesting and
profitable segment to gain market share
– What is a wise strategy for second or third comers to market in diabetes China market
Some issues addressed in the “Chinese
Diabetes Pharmaceutical Market
Report, Outcomes 2013-2017”:

4. Chinese Diabetes
Pharmaceutical Market
Slides Sample

5. Chinese diabetes market: a
fast growing segment
3%
5%
12%
18%
27%
Developed
Markets
World
Market
Average
APAC
China
Chinese
diabetes
market
Growth Forecast
Different Pharmaceutical
Segments 2013-2017
• The diabetes market in China is
expected to grow over the
Pharmaceutical Market average in
the country and is positioned as one
of the fastest Pharmaceutical
Market Segments Worldwide
• In 2012 the market exceeded USD 3
bn and is expected to achieve USD 7
bn in 2017
• Insulins segment, growing above
30% CAGR in the period 2007-2012
have surpassed by first time the non
insulin market segment in size and is
expected to keep its position as
market driver with higher growth
level than non insulin drugs between
2013 and 2017
Source: Emergpharma`s model

6. Market Drivers
Why this market is expected to more than double sales in 5 years
Epidemiology & treated
patients
Increase on the
prevalence of diabetes
as consequence of
more urban population
and lifestyle changes
Increase on the
number of treated
patients due to more
awareness on diabetes
implications
Socio-Healthcare
Economics
GDp per capita and
Healthcare Expenses
per capita
increase, growth of
urban middle class
Diabetes healthcare
expenses growth and
increase of its
participation in
Healtcare Budget
Trends and new product
availability
Increased use of
combined therapy and
FDC in particular
Trend to treat early
and more aggresively
New drugs available
(incretin market)
Increased use of
insulin analogs and
devices

7. Diabetes Market Changes
2012-2017
USD(x000.000)
3,000
7,000800
1,000
2,700
-500
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Market2012
Incr.Nr.patients
Incr.Nr.ofdrug/patient
Incr.Tr.cost/patient
PriceCuts
Market2017

8. Epidemiology of diabetes
in China
• In addition to 92 million of diabetics, 140
million people are living with IGT (Impaired
Glucose Tolerance)
• The number of diabetics living in China is
expected to achieve 130 million in 2030
• Although 85-90% of diagnosed patients are
on treatment, diagnose rates are still low
compared with developed countries
371,778
92,285
38,058 32,349
Patients with
Diabetes in the
World
Patients with
Diabetes in
China
Patients
diagnosed
with diabetes
in China
Patients on
treatment for
diabetes in
China
Data 2012 (x000)
24
49
92
130
0
50
100
150
2000 2010 2012 2030 E
Diabetic adults in China
Source: IDF and World Bank

9. Diabetes Treatment in China
• Among diagnosed patients, 10% are on
diet and exercise and 15% are not treated
• 15% of the 16 million patients treated on
monotherapy are receiving only
Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM)
• Also 10% of patients treated in combined
non insulin therapy were receiving TCM +
conventional treatment
• In total, from 92 million living with
diabetes in China, lesss than 27 million are
receiving at least one conventional
drug, while 65 million are not
diagnosed, not treated, treated on diet
and exercise or with traditional medicinal
chinese herbal products
• Only 11% of diabetics in China achieve
targets according to international
guidelines
54,227
5,709
3,235
16,175
8,087
3,882 970
Diabetes Patients China
2012 (x000)
Undiagnosed Diagnosed but Untreated
Diet and Exercise Monotherapy
Combined non insulin Insulin Alone
Insulin combined
Source: Emergpharma`s model

10. Differences in treatment
costs
• The upper 5% of patients whose
treatment was on average above 500 $
per year represent 36% of the total value
of the market
• The second category including 20% of
patient on treatment represents slightly
less, 33% of all
• The lowest category, including 75% of all
patients represents in monetary terms
just 31%
Patient
treated
more than
500 US
$, 1,391
Patient
treated
from 100
to 500
$, 5,810
Patient
treated
less than
100
$, 21,268
Patient Segments by yearly cost
of treatment (x000)
More
than
500$
36%
100-500
$
33%
< 100 $
31%
Segment Sizes %
Values
Every 1% of patients on monotherapy with old
products switching to dpp4 would represent
aprox 300 million extra sales (10% of diabetes
market in 2012)
Source: Emergpharma`s model

11. Diab-market Monotherapy
Dynamics 2012
16.000.000
patients
Diet and Exercise
New diagnosed
(Disease Progression)
Combination
Insulin
+2.000.000 / year -1.650.000 / year
Among 16 million patients in
monotherapy, only 3.65 million are
expected to change treatment per year
Switch to other
monotherapy < 5%
Source: Emergpharma`s model

12. Non insulin Market
(values)
• Contrary to other markets, in China
Glucobay (acarbose) is market leader in
the non insulins
• 89% of non insulin products are “old
generation” will many generics in the
market, while new families represent less
than 10%
• It is expected that the situation will
change in the forthcoming years with an
important penetration of Dpp4
• TZDs are reducing their market share due
to the important safety concerns
experienced worldwide, Avandia family in
particular
Biguanides
16%
Alfa
glucosidase
40%Glinides
17%
Sulfonil
ureas
16%
TZDs
6%
increatin
(Dpp4, GLP
-1)
2%
Natural
Med
3%
Source: Emergpharma`s model based on IMS data, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk published data and Emergpharma`s patient flow

13. Diabetes Product Market
Leaders 2012 (Values)
• Six products represent 2/3 of all market
sales
• Among them, 4 are manufactured by the
market leader Novo
• Among the 3 insulin market
leaders, Lantus and Novomix are
comparatively expensive products, and
both are growing above the market, near
30% in 2012
• In the forecasted scenario, Novorapid and
Levemir will surpase the 100 million $
sales in the next 3-4 years
• The incretin market (GLP-1 agonists and
DPP4 agonists) grew nearly 70% in 2012
and is expected to grow even more in
2013-2017 fueled by new products
availability and stronger penetration of
Januvia and Victoza
Rest of
products
37%
Novo
Human
Insulin
17%
Glucobay
16%
Novomix
9%
Lantus
8%
Novonorm
7%
Glucophag
e
6%
Source: Emergpharma`s model based on IMS data, Sanofi and Novo Nordisk published data and Emergpharma`s patient flow

14. The Healthcare Reform in China
• Chinese Government invested USD 180
billion in healthcare improvements between
2009 and 2011
• More than 95% of citizens now have some
form of healthcare coverage and the
government hast turned to improving the
coverage for major diseases
• The government is turning to cost
containment at many levels to balance the
healthcare budget
• The current Essential Drug List (EDL) has
been expanded to 497 drugs this year (2013).
However, only old diabetes products are
included in this list
Basic healthcare
To all citizens
Improved
basic medical
infrastructure
Expansion of
public haelth
serivice
programs
Separated
hospital
supervision
and remove
drug mark up
Expansion of medical insurance coverage
Establishment of a National Essential Drug List
Source: Novo Nordisk presentation to investors April 2013

15. Chinese Diabetes
Pharmaceutical Market
A unique tool to understand one of
the fastest growth segments on the
Global Pharmaceutical Market

16. Reasons to buy
1. The opportunity
– Updated information including data collected in 2013
2. The methodology
– Use of mathematic model and Montecarlo simulations to assess outcomes consistency
3. The company
– Use of Emergpharmalinks, a network with more than 16.000 executives on the
Pharmaceutical Industry to verify and expand information
4. The author
– More than 20 years experience in the Pharmaceutical Industry, broad experience in
emerging and diabetes markets
5. Report structure
– Four different presentations to assess different target needs
6. Report presentation and reimbursement warranty
– A 30` free of charge presentation by Videoconference is available at request
– Company reimbursement warranty in case the report doesn`t meet promised quality
standards

17. •Emergpharma is a worldwide operating
company founded in 2008 specialized in
strategic consulting services for
pharmaceutical companies with special focus
on Emerging Markets.
•Our highly specialized network
Emergpharmalinks ensures a direct contact
with more than 16.000 executives in 102
countries, covering from global and local
general management to a broad range of
senior executives of pharmaceutical, medical
devices, distributor and biotech companies as
well as most reputed executive search
companies in the world.
•Emergpharma Business Intelligence is a
highly specialized division delivering strategic
analysis and market research on/about
companies, geographies and market
segments within the Global Pharmaceutical
Emerging Market.
Jose I. Diaz has developed his
professional career in market
research, commercial and marketing
international operations in the
Pharmaceutical Industry.
He participated as Marketing Director
in the launch of Amaryl M, Lantus and
Apidra in many Asian and Latin
American countries as part of the
Intercontinental Team in Sanofi-
Aventis.
Emergpharmalinks
Professional Network
+16.000 executives
As consultant expert he has worked for some of the
leading companies in diabetes, infectious diseases and
cardiovascular: GKS, Roche, Merck and Abbott among
others.

18. Report`s Methodology
Epidemiology
• Diabetic people in China
• Patients on treatment
Patients flow
• Type of therapy
(diet/exercise, TCM,mono, combo, insulin)
• Market Dynamics (initiation/add –on/switch)
Product sales
• Product Market Share
• Unitary Costs
• Lost of treatment
Forecast
model
• Epidemiology data from International Sources
• Treatment growth based on last years trend
• Growth by segment based on trends and
addition of new comers
• Secondary analysis of Health Expenditures to
show consistency
• Epidemiology data of prevalence were
obtained from NEJM 2011 (used by IDF and
Word Bank)
• Split of patients by type of treatment has
been modeled to meet consistency
parameters using published statistics as
approximate initial sources and building the
final ones by Montecarlo simulations
• Product shares have been taken from
published and internal reports
• Treatment costs has been taken from
published and in-company reports
• Lost of yearly treatment (lack of compliance
or adherence…) in the model has been
adjusted using data from other similar
surveys (15%-20%)
• The mathematic model outcomes have
shown consistency with Companies
published results in more than 90%
• Forecasted diabetes market has been double
checked with a global analysis of health
expenditures evolution and feasible trends
showing a remarkable level of consistency.

19. Report Structure
• Because same information may not be equally relevant for
every reader, we have designed Emergpharma`s Chinese
Diabetes Market Report in four complementary formats:
– Full text: for those who need a complete description of
methodology, terminology and will be interested to “go in
depth” on the data. In total, 19 complete chapters covering
specific topics with 72 charts and figures
– Bookxecutive: only 20 pages summary for those who can
dedicate one hour to get the most relevant elements.
– Slide Basics: the core findings in 25 selected slides with
comment for those who may require preparing a visual
presentation and valuate time savings
– Executive summary: 50 top findings in just 4 pages, for a short
briefing or a 5 minutes conversation in the elevator.

20. Chapters
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Definition
3. Methodology and mathematic model
4. Diabetes Epidemiology
5. Diabetes Patients Universe
6. Socio-Health-Economic Environment
in China and its impact in diabetes
care
7. Chinese pharmaceutical market
overview
8. Chinese diabetes market I: Overall
environment
9. Chinese diabetes market II: Growth
Drivers
10. Chinese diabetes market III:
Treatment. Patients segments
11. Chinese diabetes market IV: Market
Dynamics
12.Chinese diabetes market V: Products
13. Chinese diabetes market VI: Last
Stage Pipeline
14. Chinese diabetes market VII: Players
(MNC’s and Local)
15. Chinese diabetes market VIII:
Prescribers
16.Chinese diabetes market VIII: Market
Segments by cost of treatment
17.Chinese diabetes market IX: Diabetes
in the Chinese Healthcare System
18. Chinese diabetes market X: Market
Forecast
19. Conclusions
20. Sources / References
21. Figures and charts

21. Price & Purchase Conditions
• The price for the 4 versions (Bookxecutive, Slides
Presentation, Executive Summary and Full text) of the
report are:
– Single copy (pdf+USB): USD 2.499
– Multiple users copy: USD 7.000
• A VC presentation free of charge is available on demand.
Please write to:
– Ignacio.diaz@emergpharma.es
• A Reimbursement Warranty is applicable if the Report
doesn`t meet promised outcome and quality
• Special discount are available for students and non-profit
organizations. Please ask for your personal conditions

22. Contact Details
Please, ask for a copy of contents and characteristics of
this report:
• By email:
– Ignacio.diaz@emergpharma.es
• By telephone
– Mobile +66 832099048 (Thailand)
• By skype (with previous appointment)
– Ignacio.diaz2908
• Company website:
– www.emergpharma.com